Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'd also move NJ from "Strong" to "Likely," and move Idaho from "Likely" to "Strong."  I mean, seriously, Larry LaRocco?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Dick Zimmer being on the ballot should likely help Lance.  They have the same key base, and so both should be relentlessly targeting the same voters.

And you do have to remember that Stender's near miss in 2006 was more due to Foley than anything else.  (Specifically, the relevance it gave Ferguson's Washington DC bar scandal.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Policy wonks have a heck of a lot of trouble winning heated elections, I find.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's the possible ad: Have you heard the false, negative ads attacking Kay Barnes? The man  paying for those ads is a Las Vegas casino billionaire! Billionaire Sheldon Adelson has spent hundreds of millions  of dollars investing in Communist China, paying off the government and supporting forced abortions.  Dirty money, forced abortions, and lies about Kay Barnes. Is this all Sam Graves has left?

Paid for by the DCCC

Kay Barnes, a pro-choice Democrat running in a culturally conservative Missouri district, should accuse her opponent of being weakly tied to someone being unbelievably accused of supporting "forced abortions"?

Really, make this campaign about abortion?  Do you want Barnes to have any shot of winning at all?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ok, I understand now that you're saying how it will end up on election day.  Also, what is the deal with Mahoney?  Will he issue an apology ad?  Can that save him?

At this point, nothing can save him.  Do you not realize how brutally toxic his situation is?