1988: Bush/Quayle (R) vs. Coumo/Nunn (D)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Suppose in 1988, Governor of New York Mario Coumo, decides to run for the 1988 Democratic Nomination and wins. For Vice President, Governor Coumo selects Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia.

Like in RL, Vice President George H.W. Bush wins the Republican Nomination despite finishing third in the Iowa Caucus. For Vice President, Bush selects Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana.

How would this election turn out? Discuss with maps.

[Lief 🗽]

Bush still probably wins, but Cuomo makes it closer.

Bush 312
Cuomo 226

[pragmatic liberal]

Cuomo probably wins the above map but also Michigan, Missouri, Connecticut, and maybe South Dakota if the two split the popular vote close to evenly.

His chance at victory, however, probably rests on winning both Connecticut AND New Jersey or winning Ohio. Both Ohio and New Jersey voted for Bush by a much bigger margin than the nation did that year, so Cuomo would have had a disadvantage in both. He'd have to hope he won the popular vote by 2-3 points in order to carry a few states.  Simply scaling up Dukakis' votes by 4 points in every state still leaves Cuomo short of a victory.

Although if he wins Michigan, Missouri, Connecticut, South Dakota AND Montana and Colorado - both of which were more Democratic than the nation as a whole that year - he could have eked out a win.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Bush/Quale: 274
Cuomo/Nunn: 264

[Julian Francis]

I would expect the Democratic ticket of Coumo/Nunn to narrowly win over Bush/Quayle. And I mean really close. Here's my map:

Cuomo/Nunn (D) 270 EV
Bush/Quayle (R) 268 EV

[gorkay]

In RL Dukakis had a lead coming out of the conventions, then squandered it. I'd expect Cuomo to be too smart to let that happen, so I say he'd win in a close race.