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Author Topic: Ireland General Discussion  (Read 187208 times)
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1325 on: July 22, 2017, 06:39:46 pm »
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IMS/Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent:

FG 30 (+5)
FF 29 (-4)
SF 20 (-)
Ind/Oth 12 (+3)
Lab 7 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
SP/SWP 1 (-2)
SD 0 (-2)
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« Reply #1326 on: July 22, 2017, 09:23:58 pm »
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Strong polling for SF but left with a worse result than the prior five years worth of polling at the last GE makes you wonder if it'll ever materialise.

I probably said this 30 pages back, but Irish Labour needs to f**k off and die.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1327 on: July 22, 2017, 10:28:41 pm »
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Strong polling for SF but left with a worse result than the prior five years worth of polling at the last GE makes you wonder if it'll ever materialise.

I probably said this 30 pages back, but Irish Labour needs to f**k off and die.

IMS tends to overpoll SF and underpoll independents.

Remember that in the Irish electoral system it's important to be able to pull in transfers from other parties (particularly smaller parties and independents). SF's transfer toxicity is much weaker than it was (FF got clobbered in 2011 and Labour in 2016 because of it).
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1328 on: July 26, 2017, 02:36:44 pm »
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Opinion polls tend to underpoll the minor parties especially the Far Left groups. However, that is a terrible result for the Social Democrats.
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1329 on: July 26, 2017, 09:53:13 pm »
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Opinion polls tend to underpoll the minor parties especially the Far Left groups. However, that is a terrible result for the Social Democrats.

They really need to start polling Woke Twitter. SDs cleaning up there among the Corbynistas.

I'd have said this particular poll is undercounting both the Trots (their TDs' personal votes would lift them higher than 1% on their own) and the SDs (again, Murphy and - to a lesser extent - Shortall should be able to bring along their personal votes and there's an appeal to the Stoneybatter demographic) but I wouldn't be surprised to see both fall back next time.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2017, 10:01:57 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1330 on: July 26, 2017, 11:17:50 pm »
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Opinion polls tend to underpoll the minor parties especially the Far Left groups. However, that is a terrible result for the Social Democrats.

They really need to start polling Woke Twitter. SDs cleaning up there among the Corbynistas.

I'd have said this particular poll is undercounting both the Trots (their TDs' personal votes would lift them higher than 1% on their own) and the SDs (again, Murphy and - to a lesser extent - Shortall should be able to bring along their personal votes and there's an appeal to the Stoneybatter demographic) but I wouldn't be surprised to see both fall back next time.

Agree with all this. Although I'll add that I'm not surprised seeing the SDs fall back after Donnelly got bored and moved onto greater(?) things. However, Ciaran Cannon in Dublin Central has a personal vote independent of his party and may make it in anyway next time around regardless of result of the rest of his party, especially when you consider the favourable expansion of his constituency from 3 to 4 seats.
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1331 on: July 27, 2017, 11:13:31 am »
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Opinion polls tend to underpoll the minor parties especially the Far Left groups. However, that is a terrible result for the Social Democrats.

They really need to start polling Woke Twitter. SDs cleaning up there among the Corbynistas.

I'd have said this particular poll is undercounting both the Trots (their TDs' personal votes would lift them higher than 1% on their own) and the SDs (again, Murphy and - to a lesser extent - Shortall should be able to bring along their personal votes and there's an appeal to the Stoneybatter demographic) but I wouldn't be surprised to see both fall back next time.

Agree with all this. Although I'll add that I'm not surprised seeing the SDs fall back after Donnelly got bored and moved onto greater(?) things. However, Ciaran Cannon in Dublin Central has a personal vote independent of his party and may make it in anyway next time around regardless of result of the rest of his party, especially when you consider the favourable expansion of his constituency from 3 to 4 seats.

You mean Gary Gannon, I think (Ciaran Cannon is the ex-leader of the PDs currently a junior minister). He has a personal vote in one part of the constituency, plus the Stoneybatter demographic to appeal to in the other part of the constituency (I know this image of Stoneybatter irritates Oakvale, but it's the only area where I've seen multiple "Repeal the 8th" window stickers in the same street). I don't think they have the breadth of demographic appeal anywhere else to take a seat (Catherine Connolly blocks them in Galway city which might be their best prospect otherwise).

The mutation of the SDs from "Labour without the cynicism and the fixations" to hyper-culture warriors and Corbyn fanboys/girls is one of the overlooked but interesting stories of the last few years.

I don't think the bin charges have the same potential to create trouble that the water charges did, partly because people are already paying them and partly because politicians have learned enough from the previous disaster not to allow prices to shoot up when the transition to pay-by-weight or pay-by-lift happens. Whatever the merits or otherwise of water charges in principle, they were brought in at the wrong time, in the wrong way, and by the wrong politicians. There was always going to be a backlash against seemingly endless cuts and charges at some point.

Brexit has the potential to cause a lot of damage to sectors of the economy, but the areas where those sectors are principally located (the north midlands and the rural south and west) are not receptive to the Trot gospel. SF might be better placed if they can get their act together at local level (there have been a lot of personality clashes at local level over the last few months), but even FF could make hay against the Eternal Tory Enemy and a very metropolitan Dublin government.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2017, 11:17:20 am by ObserverIE »Logged

Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1332 on: July 27, 2017, 07:17:34 pm »
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Yes, obviously I mean Gary Gannon, my memory playing tricks on me with similar sounding names. While what you say isn't impossible or even unlikely I wouldn't wish to downplay his chances - he would only need to hold on to what he had last time, dip into Costello's vote (surely he's not running again) and do better among the 'Stoneybatter Crowd' (which is probably larger in number now than in 2016) to win. Also if the SDs have one advantage it is, like Labour, they are fairly transfer friendly.

Agree with everything else you write btw. Although I'll add I'm not sure about Wicklow - as I'm not certain at all whether there will be much room for two Fianna Fail seats there unless FF's polling improves goes a bit over 30. An issue would be how much of Donnelly's personal vote can transfer over to FF and I'm not at all sure it can, especially as some of it was clearly ex-Labour.
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1333 on: July 27, 2017, 10:04:10 pm »
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Yes, obviously I mean Gary Gannon, my memory playing tricks on me with similar sounding names. While what you say isn't impossible or even unlikely I wouldn't wish to downplay his chances - he would only need to hold on to what he had last time, dip into Costello's vote (surely he's not running again)



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and do better among the 'Stoneybatter Crowd' (which is probably larger in number now than in 2016) to win. Also if the SDs have one advantage it is, like Labour, they are fairly transfer friendly.

They will be a lot more transfer-friendly than Labour. Most voters will be sufficiently low information not to be aware of the SDs' internal ideological twists and turns; very few will be sufficiently low information to have forgotten Labour's time in government just yet. If they can gain a seat anywhere it will be Gannon (O'Sullivan is hardly likely to go again, not having an entire political family to support in the way that Costello does, which would mean that even if FF took a seat, there still would be one available).

Quote
Agree with everything else you write btw. Although I'll add I'm not sure about Wicklow - as I'm not certain at all whether there will be much room for two Fianna Fail seats there unless FF's polling improves goes a bit over 30. An issue would be how much of Donnelly's personal vote can transfer over to FF and I'm not at all sure it can, especially as some of it was clearly ex-Labour.

Labour in Wicklow seems to have fractured between the ex-Sticks in Bray (aka the McManus clan) and the Old Labour types who have gone independent. I don't see them making a comeback; Ferris just about held her deposit last time in a county that had always elected Labour TDs since the early 20s. SF also seem to be in internal turmoil at the moment there with three of their councillors getting suspended (they would need a candidate beyond Bray to challenge for a second seat). The question is whether Donnelly is another Colm Keaveney or another John O'Connell. My guess is he'll hold, although the most likely threat might be Billy Timmins if he stands again as an independent.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1334 on: July 28, 2017, 11:30:10 am »
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Oh Christ, why don't some people just take a hint and retire?

Obviously I meant they will transfer friendly like Labour used to be.

EDIT: If O'Sullivan were to step down, then Gannon would surely be one of the beneficaries. Also I note that the Alphabet Soup Left have made no impact here so far, which is interesting given everything else in Dublin you think they would. Perhaps if both O'Sullivan and Burke don't run again, they would have a chance if the right candidate emerged (who?)
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 11:33:45 am by Tetro Kornbluth »Logged



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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1335 on: July 30, 2017, 11:52:55 am »
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Oh Christ, why don't some people just take a hint and retire?

Surely you could say that about the entire Labour Party?

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EDIT: If O'Sullivan were to step down, then Gannon would surely be one of the beneficaries. Also I note that the Alphabet Soup Left have made no impact here so far, which is interesting given everything else in Dublin you think they would. Perhaps if both O'Sullivan and Burke don't run again, they would have a chance if the right candidate emerged (who?)

My pet theory about the Alphabet Left is that they do best in the 70s-and-later peripheral estates into which people were decanted from the inner city and where society is more atomised and the more traditional type of community ties weaker. Dublin Central, being the source rather than the destination of that migration, is not particularly promising territory for them. (My recollection is that the WP never really made an impact here in the 70s and 80s, possibly for similar reasons.) Their candidate last time seemed to be running on the theme of ABORTIONABORTIONABORTION, a market which was too crowded in Stoneybatter and too small everywhere else. My guess is that if neither O'Sullivan nor Burke run next time, SF will try to run a second candidate east of Dorset Street/Drumcondra Road and try to manage a bid for two seats out of four.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2017, 11:57:57 am by ObserverIE »Logged

Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1336 on: July 30, 2017, 07:14:08 pm »
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That sounds plausible - except how do you explain the success of the Alphabet Left in Dublin South Central, one of their best constituencies and mostly contained of both very old neighbourhoods and 30s suburbs like Kimmage? I don't think all of - or even most - their vote could be confined to Ballyfermot, although obviously they do well there.

OTOH the similar failure of the Alphabet Left in Dublin North West - where the WP did indeed do well in the past - is suggestive, as is their failure to win a seat in Dublin Bay North at the last election, although they were relatively close there - and Broughan and to a lesser extent McGrath would have taken quite a bit of their potential vote

In Cork though - their only seat outside Dublin (unless you are counting Healy) - their base seems very city centre.

I agree though that SF are surely going to try for 2 out of 4 in Dublin Central next time around. Does the Gregory Group have anyone the sidelines for O'Sullivan do you know? Or is the group just a shell these days?
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1337 on: September 16, 2017, 04:28:57 pm »
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Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times

FG 33 (+4)
FF 25 (-5)
SF 19 (+1)
Ind/Oth 13 (-)
Lab 5 (-)
GP 2 (-1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

B&A have a history of parties seeing a jump in one opinion poll followed by a slump in the next, so this may not be as sensational as it seems.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 11:34:27 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #1338 on: September 23, 2017, 08:28:26 pm »
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RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 30 (+3)
FF 26 (+2)
SF 16 (-2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-)
Lab 5 (-1)
SP/SWP 4 (-)
SD 4 (+2)
GP 2 (-2)
Renua 1 (-2)

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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1339 on: September 25, 2017, 12:28:55 pm »
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Leo's FanboisIreland Thinks  for the Irish Daily Mail:

FG 32 (+1)
FF 29 (+3)
SF 14 (-2)
Ind/Oth 12 (+1)
Lab 5 (-2)
GP 3 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 2 (-)
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« Reply #1340 on: September 25, 2017, 02:38:03 pm »
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Leo's FanboisIreland Thinks  for the Irish Daily Mail:

FG 32 (+1)
FF 29 (+3)
SF 14 (-2)
Ind/Oth 12 (+1)
Lab 5 (-2)
GP 3 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 2 (-)

Why are the Shinners doing so badly?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1341 on: September 26, 2017, 08:09:27 am »
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Leo's FanboisIreland Thinks  for the Irish Daily Mail:

FG 32 (+1)
FF 29 (+3)
SF 14 (-2)
Ind/Oth 12 (+1)
Lab 5 (-2)
GP 3 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 2 (-)

Why are the Shinners doing so badly?

I don't think they're doing badly as such. They're trundling along As You Were and the polling companies currently reporting tend not to be friendly towards them. They are firmly established now as the main option to the left of FF - Labour are discredited and stagnant, and the Woke Left (Trots and SDs) are failing to get much traction.

As to why they're not doing better?:

1. FF are able to present themselves as being the main opposition party even though they're providing FG with confidence and supply, and as time goes on, the opprobrium of the crash will slowly fade.
2. Austerity has been dialled down so there aren't as many active irritants for the general population. You're still left with the after-effects - a severe housing shortage in urban areas and hospitals unable to cope with demand - but while these will eat away at FG support, they're not guaranteed to benefit SF.
3. Rumblings of low-level squabbling, with a series of councillors alleging bullying from the party apparatus.
4. An implacably hostile media (although this is a permanent feature of the RoI system).
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1342 on: October 05, 2017, 02:32:29 am »
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Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 31 (+1)
FF 29 (+2)
SF 19 (-1)
Ind/Oth 10 (-1)
Lab 4 (-1)
GP 3 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
SD 2 (+1)

FG core vote actually down but greater number of undecideds pushes them up by default.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 02:34:05 am by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #1343 on: October 14, 2017, 04:51:57 pm »
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Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times

FG 31 (-2)
FF 27 (+2)
SF 19 (-)
Ind/Oth 15 (+2)
Lab 4 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)
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« Reply #1344 on: October 15, 2017, 01:34:09 am »
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so, Hurricane Ophelia...
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