Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

SF 17 (-6)

Big drop. Any particular reason?

B&A has a habit of showing leaps and falls that other polls don't, so unless there's confirmation from other polls I'd assume noise - at least for the moment. My gut instinct is that they're in the high teens and that they're being underpolled by RedC and overpolled by others.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 30 (-1)
FF 26 (-3)
SF 20 (+3)
Ind/Oth 15 (+3)
Lab 4 (-1)
GP 2 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

Ireland Thinks for the Irish Daily Mail:

FG 32 (+3)
FF 23 (-1)
SF 16 (-3)
Ind/Oth 11 (-6)
Lab 7 (+1)
SP/SWP 4 (+3)
GP 4 (+2)
SD 3 (+1)
Peadar Tóibín party yet unnamed 2 (+2)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 32 (-2)
FF 22 (-5)
Ind/Oth 20 (+5)
SF 13 (-)
Lab 6 (-)
GP 3 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (+2)
SD 2 (-)
Renua 0 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 30 (-)
FF 26 (-)
SF 18 (-2)
Ind/Oth 15 (-)
Lab 5 (+1)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 1 (+1)
WP 0 (-)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 31 (-1)
FF 24 (+2)
SF 18 (+5)
Ind/Oth 17 (-3)
Lab 5 (-1)
SD 2 (-)
GP 2 (-1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 30 (-3)
FF 24 (-1)
SF 21 (-3)
Ind/Oth 15 (+6)
Lab 6 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
GP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 31 (+1)
FF 25 (-1)
SF 19 (+1)
Ind/Oth 14 (-1)
Lab 5 (-)
GP 3 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-2)
SD 0 (-1)
Renua 0 (-1)
WP 0 (-)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 31 (-)
FF 25 (+1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+1)
SF 13 (-5)
Lab 5 (-)
SD 3 (+1)
GP 3 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (+1)

[ObserverIE]

Two polls, two messages:

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 29 (+4)
FG 28 (-3)
SF 21 (+2)
Ind/Oth 14 (-)
Lab 4 (-1)
SP/SWP 1 (-)
SD 1 (+1)
GP 1 (-2)

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 33 (+2)
FF 23 (-2)
Ind/Oth 18 (-)
SF 14 (+1)
Lab 5 (-)
GP 3 (-)
SD 2 (-1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)
Aontú 1 (+1)

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 29 (-1)
FF 26 (+2)
SF 16 (-5)
Ind/Oth 14 (-2)
Lab 7 (+1)
GP 4 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 2 (+1)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 28 (-5)
FF 24 (+1)
Ind/Oth 16 (-2)
SF 13 (-1)
GP 7 (+4)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (+1)
SD 2 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
Renua 1 (+1)

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 28 (-)
FF 28 (-1)
SF 19 (-2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-2)
GP 5 (+4)
Lab 4 (-)
SP/SWP 3 (+2)
SD 1 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Ireland Thinks for the Irish Daily Mail:

FG 28 (-4)
FF 25 (+2)
SF 16 (-)
Ind/Oth 14 (+1)
GP 7 (+3)
Lab 6 (-1)
SD 3 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (-2)

[ObserverIE]

First post-LE poll from Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 28 (-)
FG 23 (-5)
Ind/Oth 16 (+4)
SF 12 (-7)
GP 11 (+6)
Lab 5 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
Aontú 1 (+1)
Renua 1 (+1)

B&A tend to show sudden shifts from one poll to the next without obvious cause, although the Green surge is following good European and local results. Renua ticking upwards after losing its only elected representative and party leader is less intuitive but I suppose it meant that they got some media attention and any publicity is...

FG will now be looking to the Greens as a potential coalition partner, in no small part because that's where a lot of their lost votes in middle-class Dublin have gone. If you liked Woke Thatcherism, you're going to just love Woke Green Thatcherism. My guess is that a lot of the SF vote has gone to independents as a less specific protest/dissatisfaction option.

[YL]

First post-LE poll from Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 28 (-)
FG 23 (-5)
Ind/Oth 16 (+4)
SF 12 (-7)
GP 11 (+6)
Lab 5 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
Aontú 1 (+1)
Renua 1 (+1)

B&A tend to show sudden shifts from one poll to the next without obvious cause, although the Green surge is following good European and local results. Renua ticking upwards after losing its only elected representative and party leader is less intuitive but I suppose it meant that they got some media attention and any publicity is...

FG will now be looking to the Greens as a potential coalition partner, in no small part because that's where a lot of their lost votes in middle-class Dublin have gone. If you liked Woke Thatcherism, you're going to just love Woke Green Thatcherism. My guess is that a lot of the SF vote has gone to independents as a less specific protest/dissatisfaction option.

I'd have thought the Greens in Ireland would be wary of another coalition after their experience with Fianna Fáil.

[ObserverIE]

First post-LE poll from Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 28 (-)
FG 23 (-5)
Ind/Oth 16 (+4)
SF 12 (-7)
GP 11 (+6)
Lab 5 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
Aontú 1 (+1)
Renua 1 (+1)

B&A tend to show sudden shifts from one poll to the next without obvious cause, although the Green surge is following good European and local results. Renua ticking upwards after losing its only elected representative and party leader is less intuitive but I suppose it meant that they got some media attention and any publicity is...

FG will now be looking to the Greens as a potential coalition partner, in no small part because that's where a lot of their lost votes in middle-class Dublin have gone. If you liked Woke Thatcherism, you're going to just love Woke Green Thatcherism. My guess is that a lot of the SF vote has gone to independents as a less specific protest/dissatisfaction option.

I'd have thought the Greens in Ireland would be wary of another coalition after their experience with Fianna Fáil.

Our Greens tend to be more mango than watermelon (their base of support tends to come from the bien-pensant middle-class and might be viewed as essentially gene-pool FGers with solar panels and bicycles) and the private schoolboys in the leadership are very keen on coalition "to get things done".

If faced with a choice of partner, they would view FGers as a better class of person than those rough uncouth FFers (this is a common attitude among much of the Irish self-styled soft left and explains many of Labour's electoral disasters).

[beesley]

Could someone explain why Renua aren't polling better than 1%? I thought there would be more Catholics/pro-life people committed to those causes than 1%.

[ObserverIE]

Could someone explain why Renua aren't polling better than 1%? I thought there would be more Catholics/pro-life people committed to those causes than 1%.

Firstly, the single-issue vote on either side of the culture wars tends to be very small - my view of it is that an over-concentration on it tends to lose a lot more votes than it wins, if for no other reason than most voters are left with the impression that more mundane issues are ignored. A case in point on the other side of the culture wars is Solidarity/Anti-Austerity Alliance/Socialist Party/Militant/Committee for a Workers' International/whatever it's calling itself this month, who have spent the last couple of years talking about nothing else but the culture wars, causing internal disputes within the organization, and culminating in a local election result which saw them reduced from 14 seats last time to 4 this time around, and leaving them in a position where at least two of their three Dáil seats (Dublin West and Cork North Central) are in imminent danger.

Those voters who are pro-life/anti-abortion have a number of different options besides Renua - FF still has a lot of TDs who were on the No side of the referendum campaign, almost all of the FF gene-pool independents were also No, and you have Peadar Tóibín's new Aontú party, which managed one council seat fewer than the SP from a standing start, and which has more attraction to pro-lifers with a social conscience than Renua has (think ChristenUnie). I think FG and SF will both lose some votes over the issue (and lose more than they gain - the progressive culture-war voter is very thorough at finding reasons not to vote for a particular party) but the gains will be more diffuse.

And finally, Renua itself has been in a state of decline over the last few years. Creighton resigned after the election, and the other two ex-TDs have both returned to FG - Timmons is a candidate in Wicklow for the next Dáil election and Flanagan got re-elected to Dublin City Council as a FG candidate in May. Creighton herself has been linked with a FG candidacy in Kildare (she remains good personal friends with Varadkar). With its figureheads gone, Renua drifted ideologically from its flat-tax fixation of the last election through a brief spell of trying to be a right-wing social-liberal party, to providing a home for the Youth Defence wing of the pro-life movement and making skeptical noises about immigration and Europe without going as far as the actual Nazis of the National Party or the would-be Boris Quislings of Irexit. Its party leader (John Leahy) is popular in his home area in Offaly and was comfortably re-elected to the county council in May, but other than in Portlaoise it didn't come close to taking a seat anywhere else, and Leahy has now resigned from the party, leaving it as a Marie Celeste without a party leader (its constitution requires the leader to be an elected representative and Leahy was the only one who qualified) but guaranteed state funding until the next election based on its 2% in 2016.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 30 (+2)
FG 26 (+3)
SF 14 (+2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-4)
GP 7 (-4)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)
Aontú 1 (-)
Renua 1 (-)

Green and Independent surges subside a little, mainly to the benefit of FG and SF respectively.

[brucejoel99]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 30 (+2)
FG 26 (+3)
SF 14 (+2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-4)
GP 7 (-4)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)
Aontú 1 (-)
Renua 1 (-)

Green and Independent surges subside a little, mainly to the benefit of FG and SF respectively.

This is the 4th poll in a row that B&A have had FF as (or tied for) the most popular party, & they're still the only major polling organization that's showing this. Take their findings with a grain of salt until the next RedC or Ipsos/MRBI poll comes out.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 30 (+2)
FG 26 (+3)
SF 14 (+2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-4)
GP 7 (-4)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)
Aontú 1 (-)
Renua 1 (-)

Green and Independent surges subside a little, mainly to the benefit of FG and SF respectively.

This is the 4th poll in a row that B&A have had FF as (or tied for) the most popular party, & they're still the only major polling organization that's showing this. Take their findings with a grain of salt until the next RedC or Ipsos/MRBI poll comes out.

MRBI perhaps. RedC are a joke that too many people take seriously.

FF did outpoll FG in the local elections and at the moment, I would expect them to make ground outside of middle-class Dublin.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 29 (+1)
FF 28 (+4)
Ind/Oth 16 (-)
SF 12 (-1)
GP 7 (-)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)
SD 1 (-1)
Aontú 0 (-2)
Renua 0 (-1)

I got polled for this one last Friday week.

I was initially asked who I would vote for, and was then prompted with a list when I (out of curiosity) asked which parties were named. Renua and the woke tankie shell of the Workers' Party were listed, but People Before Profit (the SWP's better-known front) and Aontú weren't, FWIW.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 29 (-1)
FG 26 (-)
SF 20 (+6)
Ind/Oth 13 (+1)
GP 5 (-2)
Lab 3 (-2)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 1 (-)
Aontú 0 (-1)

[CumbrianLefty]

Irish Labour - LOL.

[ObserverIE]

Irish Labour - LOL.

I'm quite skeptical that they're as low as 3% given the Trots and the Wokier-Than-Thou are both only at 1%.

They managed just over 5% in the local elections (slightly better than I expected to be honest) and while it was their worst ever result it was with their lowest ever number of candidates and areas contested. Their vote outside of a handful of areas (north county Dublin, greater Drogheda and rural Waterford) either stagnated or continued its decline, but I suspect 5% is just about their national floor. There are enough people who religiously (in a very secular sense, of course) read the Irish Times and find Martyn Turner's cartoons funny to keep them at about that level if no higher.

[ObserverIE]

People's Front of Judaea TD leaves to launch Judean People's Popular Front.

(Based on the local election results, all three will struggle to hold their seats; Murphy's chances are about 50/50 and the other two have poorer prospects.)