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Author Topic: Ireland General Discussion  (Read 210359 times)
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1400 on: April 28, 2018, 11:12:37 am »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 32 (-1)
FF 25 (+1)
Ind/Oth 16 (+4)
SF 14 (-2)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (+1)
SD 2 (-)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 1 (-1)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1401 on: April 30, 2018, 01:39:53 pm »
« Edited: April 30, 2018, 05:18:16 pm by ObserverIE »

Ireland Thinks for the Irish Daily Mail:

FG 29 (-4)
FF 26 (-)
SF 16 (+2)
Ind/Oth 13 (+1)
Lab 5 (-1)
SP/SWP 4 (+1)
GP 4 (+2)
SD 3 (+1)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1402 on: May 05, 2018, 01:18:19 pm »

IMS/Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent:

FG 34 (-2)
FF 27 (-1)
SF 22 (+2)
Ind/Oth 8 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
GP 3 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-)
SD 0 (-1)
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1403 on: May 05, 2018, 09:17:57 pm »

I wonder if there will be a 3-seater in the next election where FG, FF and SF only run one candidate apiece and all three candidates exceed quota in the first round?  With the nationwide polling numbers it seems like a possibility, like in a seat where SF runs slightly better than nationwide, and maybe FG slightly worse (so they don't ruin this scenario by running a 2nd candidate).  If the northern ROI European constituency got reduced to a three-seater in the next boundary review (which could already be happening for all I know with the country slated to gain 2 seats with Brexit), I could see such a result occurring there.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1404 on: May 06, 2018, 10:39:16 am »

I wonder if there will be a 3-seater in the next election where FG, FF and SF only run one candidate apiece and all three candidates exceed quota in the first round?  With the nationwide polling numbers it seems like a possibility, like in a seat where SF runs slightly better than nationwide, and maybe FG slightly worse (so they don't ruin this scenario by running a 2nd candidate).  If the northern ROI European constituency got reduced to a three-seater in the next boundary review (which could already be happening for all I know with the country slated to gain 2 seats with Brexit), I could see such a result occurring there.

Meath West might be close in that while FG (and possibly FF) will run more than one candidate, it's likely that one will be well ahead of the other while Labour have collapsed and there's no significant other presences. I can't think of any other likely candidates.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1405 on: May 06, 2018, 11:32:26 am »

I wonder if there will be a 3-seater in the next election where FG, FF and SF only run one candidate apiece and all three candidates exceed quota in the first round?  With the nationwide polling numbers it seems like a possibility, like in a seat where SF runs slightly better than nationwide, and maybe FG slightly worse (so they don't ruin this scenario by running a 2nd candidate).  If the northern ROI European constituency got reduced to a three-seater in the next boundary review (which could already be happening for all I know with the country slated to gain 2 seats with Brexit), I could see such a result occurring there.

Meath West might be close in that while FG (and possibly FF) will run more than one candidate, it's likely that one will be well ahead of the other while Labour have collapsed and there's no significant other presences. I can't think of any other likely candidates.

I just looked at the 2016 results and while only the SF candidate made the quota in the first count, the FF candidate was only 0.5% shy and the two FG candidates got 33.5% on the first round and FG has only one incumbent now who got 21.0% in 2016 when there was another FG incumbent running.

I didn't even ask about 4- and 5-seaters as I assumed there would be even less of a chance that 4 candidates would exceed 20% of the vote in the first count or that 5 candidates would exceed 16.666...%.

Any word on a coming review of Ireland's European Parliament constituencies?  Any more interesting speculation in that regard?
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EPG
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« Reply #1406 on: May 07, 2018, 10:25:48 am »

I wonder if there will be a 3-seater in the next election where FG, FF and SF only run one candidate apiece and all three candidates exceed quota in the first round?  With the nationwide polling numbers it seems like a possibility, like in a seat where SF runs slightly better than nationwide, and maybe FG slightly worse (so they don't ruin this scenario by running a 2nd candidate).  If the northern ROI European constituency got reduced to a three-seater in the next boundary review (which could already be happening for all I know with the country slated to gain 2 seats with Brexit), I could see such a result occurring there.

Most seats where FF, FG and SF enjoy significant combined strength also exhibit substantial local bias in voting, not that this is absent anywhere in ROI. So the scenario where they win a quota each is hard to imagine, because if there are only three candidates, then some other candidate from a fourth, fifth and sixth town in the area will inevitably stand, and win lots of votes in their hinterland.

E.g. if in Meath West you just have Cassells (FF), English (FG) and Tobin (SF), all from Navan, then someone from Trim, Kells, Castlepollard or Ballivor is going to stand and get a few thousand votes. This is the basic motive to running more candidates than you expect to win, and also the reason why it is so unlikely nowadays to defend such a numerical situation from independents or even Labour (it would have been very imaginable in the 1960s or 70s).
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1407 on: June 18, 2018, 05:50:08 pm »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times (changes since last month):

FG 31 (+1)
FF 24 (+1)
SF 24 (-)
Ind/Oth 12 (-1)
Lab 4 (-)
GP 2 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)
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EPG
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« Reply #1408 on: June 19, 2018, 01:32:24 pm »

Carol Nolan TD is out of Sinn Féin permanently. Ostensibly the pro-life issue, but note that under the proposed boundary changes, she would have been #1 on the list of TDs likely to lose their seats, as the weaker of 2 SF candidates in a 5-seater that's mediocre for them. As a pro-life independent incumbent, a loss is less likely for her, I believe. It's not clear whether she will or will not stand again in Laois-Offaly if the boundary changes are legislated, or Offaly if the Dáil falls before then.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1409 on: June 24, 2018, 06:08:02 am »

Mary McAleese compares infant baptism to conscription

It's strange to see Ireland transition to Western woke neoliberalism so rapidly.
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EPG
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« Reply #1410 on: June 27, 2018, 04:40:25 pm »

Er, have you seen this? "Varadkar backs Madigan over female ordination comments". Lay Irish women criticising the Church radically from within is by no means new, Irish folk history is full of "strong female characters".

FF endorsed Higgins for the second presidential term he promised he would never serve. It looks like the party system is trying to arrange no election in late 2018, but that requires Sinn Féin and the county councils to comply. The rival candidates so far are pretty weak, a bunch of independent non-university Senators, which is the absolute nadir of "elected" office including county councillors. More interesting would be anti-immigration artist Kevin Sharkey, but maybe his declared bid is performance art, it doesn't have political traction or any nominators. Higgins will be 85 if he completes a second term.
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EPG
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« Reply #1411 on: June 27, 2018, 04:44:53 pm »

(It's almost sad to follow a post about Ulster hero, top secular-and-canon lawyer and best ever FF politician president McAleese with one about part-time poet, Chavez and Castro sympathiser president Higgins)
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #1412 on: June 28, 2018, 05:58:27 pm »

Mary McAleese compares infant baptism to conscription

It's strange to see Ireland transition to Western woke neoliberalism so rapidly.

Like A Handmaid's Tale but backwards.
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EPG
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« Reply #1413 on: July 09, 2018, 01:32:27 pm »

Latest presidential news: names being floated now include even more independent senators, Joan Freeman and (with no evidence) Frances Black (she says no way). Senators Craughwell and Ó Céidigh are said to have mooted a primary: the winner receives the support of both men's backers in the Oireachtas, while the loser tours the country looking for four local council nominations.

It's certainly even more silly than the final season of The West Wing but not yet clear that this rigmarole will yield an election. The likely course of affairs is now that the incumbent announces a re-election campaign this week. Sinn Féin then chooses whether to nominate a candidate. If they do, an election is a certainty anyway, and the independents will nominate another candidate, I think. If not, expect significant pressure to allow an uncontested re-election.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #1414 on: July 10, 2018, 05:57:29 am »

Mary McAleese compares infant baptism to conscription

It's strange to see Ireland transition to Western woke neoliberalism so rapidly.

Like A Handmaid's Tale but backwards.

I swear, ALATT people who keep bringing it up at every opportunity are making me hate that book/show even as I was initially very interested in it.
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EPG
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« Reply #1415 on: July 11, 2018, 01:44:48 pm »

Well, it is profoundly relevant. I mean, it looks like abortion will be illegal in most US states within the next five years.

The incumbent is indeed running. Frances Black may not be running but she did pass an occupied territories boycott through the Senate. Probably one of senators Freeman and Ó Céidigh will also run, I can't over-emphasise how little name recognition these people have, unlike the incumbent or Frances Black who recorded the best-selling album in Irish history.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1416 on: July 15, 2018, 03:51:48 pm »

Mary McAleese compares infant baptism to conscription

It's strange to see Ireland transition to Western woke neoliberalism so rapidly.

As a Methodist, I find this rather insulting. “It’s not the baby’s choice!” doesn’t mean anything - theologically or practically. Still, I admire McAleese a great deal - she’s quite possibly the best European leader in the last several decades, and certainly the best female head of state ever.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1417 on: July 21, 2018, 04:03:35 pm »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 34 (+3)
SF 22 (-2)
FF 21 (-3)
Ind/Oth 14 (+2)
Lab 3 (-1)
GP 2 (-)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

Attacks from the Tory press failing to damage Varadkar, surprisingly enough. Elsewhere, Labour looking like a candidate for the "parties you believe will die soon" thread.
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EPG
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« Reply #1418 on: July 22, 2018, 02:09:37 pm »

Just to highlight the sarcasm for the uninitiated - just in case it's necessary - the typical Fine Gael voter, basically a big farmer or his solicitor daughter, would not actually pay attention to the Murdoch press!
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1419 on: July 23, 2018, 05:00:13 pm »

What I'm getting at is the "rally round the flag" effect that being attacked by The Sun or the likes of Rees-Mogg produces for Varadkar among non-traditional FG voters.

FG has traditionally been the most Anglophile of the parties and Varadkar himself would have fitted quite comfortably into the Cameron/Osborne wing of the Tories before they took a funny turn.
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EPG
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« Reply #1420 on: July 24, 2018, 03:05:59 pm »

But there's no evidence, it's just speculation. Do the Sun or Rees-Mogg have any mindshare in Irish vote intention at all? The Sun in my experience is a foreign paper mainly purchased by people who are already pretty cynical about media, and who may not even be regular voters, with little impact on anyone else. Rees-Mogg falls into a huge category where British politicians are concerned: if you are Irish and know who he is, you are probably well-informed about politics and probably won't decide vote intention on the basis of him.

I'd look to the recent weather, myself, to explain what is going on. Though medium-term, we wouldn't be seeing these numbers if unemployment were still 10% or even 7%.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1421 on: September 15, 2018, 01:00:52 pm »
« Edited: September 15, 2018, 01:06:55 pm by ObserverIE »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post (changes since May):

FG 33 (-1)
FF 22 (-3)
Ind/Oth 18 (+5)
SF 14 (-2)
Lab 6 (-)
SD 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 1 (+1)

Ireland Thinks for the Irish Mail on Sunday (changes since April):

FG 29 (-)
FF 24 (-2)
SF 19 (+3)
Ind/Oth 17 (+4)
Lab 6 (+1)
SD 2 (-1)
GP 2 (-2)
SP/SWP 1 (-3)
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EPG
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« Reply #1422 on: September 15, 2018, 02:34:16 pm »

Two narratives: RedC says FG gains from everyone else, while Ireland Thinks says FG and SF consolidate support from the parties on their flanks - but didn't we hear the same message in 2014-15 right before the election disproved it? Either way, intriguing that this suggests "Independents, non-party and others" are back up to their 2016 figures that gave them a record seat total and the balance of power.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1423 on: September 22, 2018, 04:03:54 pm »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times (changes since July):

FG 32 (-2)
FF 25 (+4)
SF 20 (-2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-2)
Lab 5 (+2)
SP/SWP 3 (+2)
GP 3 (+1)
SD 0 (-1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1424 on: September 23, 2018, 08:07:56 pm »

Hey does anybody else remember when Northern Ireland had a government?
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