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Author Topic: Ireland General Discussion  (Read 207765 times)
EPG
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« Reply #1425 on: September 24, 2018, 01:18:50 pm »

Hey does anybody else remember when Northern Ireland had a government?

Surely UK general discussion? The two sides split after Brexit and it's hard to see any reconciliation while exit is still being negotiated.
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EPG
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« Reply #1426 on: October 09, 2018, 04:43:21 pm »

Probably not until after BREXIT. There was a budget, but nothing to change anyone's mind, so I think another budget will be agreed.
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EPG
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« Reply #1427 on: October 10, 2018, 02:12:57 pm »

POLITICO ranks just a little above Paul Staines in worthwhile commentator points.

Anyway, for May, there is little downside to an election or fall of government in Ireland. The main division is that Fine Gael, their allies, and Sinn Fin broadly support the government line that the negotiation is UK-EU through Michel Barnier and the Council, while Fianna Fil imply that Ireland should be an interlocutor between the UK government, NI unionists and the EU. Her best outcome is that a FF-led administration eager on deal-making starts to undermine the EU line and threaten a veto. Her worst is that the current government retains its minority without an election until the end of the talks.

The Independent tends to be a little ebulliently pro-Leo, just as the Times tends to be sniffishly dismissive - half preferred Enda and half prefer the liberal / radical left.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1428 on: October 12, 2018, 08:47:56 am »

RedC for Paddy Power:

FG 32 (-1)
FF 27 (+5)
Ind/Oth 16 (-2)
SF 14 (-)
Lab 5 (-1)
GP 3 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-1)
Renua 0 (-1)

Presidential election:

Higgins 70
Gallagher 14
Freeman 6
N Riada 5
Duffy 4
Casey 1
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EPG
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« Reply #1429 on: October 14, 2018, 04:29:00 am »

The boring presidential election aside, there will also be a referendum to decriminalise blasphemy on 26 October.

This week, or maybe the last 2 weeks, two government TDs officially left the majority, and three officially joined it, though two of those already were reliable supporters before. This was a lot more fun as an event than the presidential election. One prominent anti-abortion activist quit FG. It is no small irony that his place in the majority is now taken by independent TD Noel Grealish, who votes pro-life and was previously not a reliable government vote.

The other departer was the Minister for Communications, who held a series of meetings with a bidder on a large contract to build broadband infrastructure, without minutes or any official record. Denis Naughten quit before being sacked and declared that he is now fully independent. Whatever about Grealish, the irony levels exceed the scale in that Naughten is being replaced in the majority by Michael Lowry (not a joke). As for the vacant office of Minister for Communications, which could hardly be given to Lowry again, it is filled by a ladder of promotions that ends with the long-awaited junior ministry for Sean Canney, who had been scorned by his allies after losing a coin toss against his fellow independent TD "Boxer" (this is also not a joke).
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1430 on: October 16, 2018, 08:03:09 am »

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 33 (+2)
FF 25 (-1)
SF 24 (+2)
Ind/Oth 9 (-)
Lab 4 (-1)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1431 on: October 20, 2018, 07:17:18 pm »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 31 (-1)
FF 27 (+2)
SF 19 (-1)
Ind/Oth 11 (-1)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
GP 2 (-1)
SD 0 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 33 (+1)
FF 25 (-2)
Ind/Oth 16 (-)
SF 15 (+1)
Lab 5 (-)
GP 4 (+1)
SD 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 0 (-2)
Renua 0 (-)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1432 on: October 22, 2018, 08:58:34 am »

The Trots seem very low. Is that because the public recognise them more under their "AAA/PBP" names rather than as the SWP?
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FWIW, CrabCake hates China. I think they said something like their dream was for robots to devastate China.

ObserverIE
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« Reply #1433 on: October 22, 2018, 12:13:19 pm »

The Trots seem very low. Is that because the public recognise them more under their "AAA/PBP" names rather than as the SWP?

The pollsters call them by their assumed names as well - the "SWP/SP" is my own convention - but the "Anti-Austerity Alliance" is now "Solidarity".

We're out of crisis - or at least out of acute crisis - and no-one's tried anything as stupid and cack-handed as the last government's attempted implementation of water charges, so the Trots have less to appeal to.

They've tried going all-in on abortion, but the culture wars have never been a general vote-winner on either side in the absence of other incentives and I would expect their vote (and the votes of most of the small left-wing parties) to slip next time.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1434 on: November 16, 2018, 06:11:40 pm »

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ireland-thong-rape-trial-consent-thisisnotconsent-protests/

Quote
Protests have flared across Ireland this week triggering a viral campaign online after a defense lawyer showed a 17-year-old girl's thong or G-string in court as alleged proof of her consent in a rape case.

The outrage has included a female lawmaker brandishing underwear in parliament and women posting pictures of their thongs online with the hashtag #ThisIsNotConsent.

"It might seem embarrassing to show a pair of thongs in this incongruous setting," said member of parliament Ruth Coppinger -- pulling the underwear from her sleeve against the objections of the speaker on Tuesday.

"But the reason I'm doing it -- how do you think a rape victim or a woman feels at the incongruous setting of her underwear being shown in a court?"

She was referring to a rape case in the republic's southern city of Cork, where a girl's underwear was shown to jurors.

The 27-year-old defendant was acquitted, Irish media reported.

"A barrister actually told a jury to 'look at the way she was dressed', that she was 'open to meeting someone' because she was 'wearing a thong with a laced front'", Coppinger added.

"Women in this country are getting a little bit weary at the routine victim-blaming going on in Irish courts."

Protests have now taken place in the cities of Dublin and Cork as well as Belfast in Northern Ireland -- with women appearing brandishing pairs of underwear and placards emblazoned with the phrase "This is not consent."

Clothing, as well as fake tan and contraception, have all been used as alleged proof of consent in recent rape trials, Coppinger said Tuesday.


I'd like to believe that if I were in Dublin or Cork, I would be protesting too. This is just insane.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1435 on: November 17, 2018, 07:59:50 pm »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 30 (-1)
FF 27 (-)
SF 23 (+4)
Ind/Oth 11 (-)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (+1)
GP 1 (-1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1436 on: November 24, 2018, 02:50:54 pm »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 34 (+1)
FF 27 (+2)
Ind/Oth 15 (-1)
SF 13 (-2)
Lab 6 (+1)
GP 3 (-1)
SD 2 (-)
SP/SWP 0 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 01:32:03 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #1437 on: December 15, 2018, 07:28:33 pm »

IMS/Kantar Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent:

FG 32 (-2)
FF 27 (-)
SF 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 10 (+2)
Lab 5 (-)
SD 2 (+2)
SP/SWP 1 (-)
GP 1 (-2)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1438 on: December 22, 2018, 05:18:25 pm »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 31 (+1)
FF 29 (+2)
SF 17 (-6)
Ind/Oth 12 (+1)
Lab 5 (-1)
GP 3 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 2 (+1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1439 on: December 22, 2018, 06:43:20 pm »

SF 17 (-6)

Big drop. Any particular reason?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1440 on: December 25, 2018, 08:57:52 pm »

SF 17 (-6)

Big drop. Any particular reason?

B&A has a habit of showing leaps and falls that other polls don't, so unless there's confirmation from other polls I'd assume noise - at least for the moment. My gut instinct is that they're in the high teens and that they're being underpolled by RedC and overpolled by others.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1441 on: January 19, 2019, 04:31:54 pm »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 30 (-1)
FF 26 (-3)
SF 20 (+3)
Ind/Oth 15 (+3)
Lab 4 (-1)
GP 2 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

Ireland Thinks for the Irish Daily Mail:

FG 32 (+3)
FF 23 (-1)
SF 16 (-3)
Ind/Oth 11 (-6)
Lab 7 (+1)
SP/SWP 4 (+3)
GP 4 (+2)
SD 3 (+1)
Peadar Tibn party yet unnamed 2 (+2)
« Last Edit: January 22, 2019, 11:05:33 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #1442 on: January 26, 2019, 01:32:45 pm »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 32 (-2)
FF 22 (-5)
Ind/Oth 20 (+5)
SF 13 (-)
Lab 6 (-)
GP 3 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (+2)
SD 2 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1443 on: February 16, 2019, 06:22:42 pm »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 30 (-)
FF 26 (-)
SF 18 (-2)
Ind/Oth 15 (-)
Lab 5 (+1)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 1 (+1)
WP 0 (-)
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