Ireland General Discussion

[MayorCarcetti]

Harris hasn't even declared, but already several senators and backbench TD's have coalesced around Harris, and it's expected more (including some ministers) will follow today. Some believe it's going to be a coronation as things stand but there's seemingly some interest from Pascal Donohue and Heather Humphreys in running. Donohue previously looked set to go for IMF Chair after a widely-praised spell as president of the Eurogroup (the confederation of EU Finance Ministers) but incumbent Kristalina Georgieva has decided to run for a second term, ending his chances.

In terms of how FG electoral's system works by the way, TD's and Senators counts for 65% of the vote, the party membership is 25% and local representatives (e.g councillors) are 10%. Last time round, Simon Coveney actually had almost double the votes of Varadkar among the membership (7,051 to 3,772), lost narrowly out with local representatives (100 to Leo's 123) but got trumped amongst the parliamentary party (Leo 51, Coveney 22).

[ObserverIE]

Harris hasn't even declared, but already several senators and backbench TD's have coalesced around Harris, and it's expected more (including some ministers) will follow today. Some believe it's going to be a coronation as things stand but there's seemingly some interest from Pascal Donohue and Heather Humphreys in running. Donohue previously looked set to go for IMF Chair after a widely-praised spell as president of the Eurogroup (the confederation of EU Finance Ministers) but incumbent Kristalina Georgieva has decided to run for a second term, ending his chances.

In terms of how FG electoral's system works by the way, TD's and Senators counts for 65% of the vote, the party membership is 25% and local representatives (e.g councillors) are 10%. Last time round, Simon Coveney actually had almost double the votes of Varadkar among the membership (7,051 to 3,772), lost narrowly out with local representatives (100 to Leo's 123) but got trumped amongst the parliamentary party (Leo 51, Coveney 22).

It looks to be a replay of Varadkar's strategy from last time - get an avalanche of endorsements from the PP early on so as to render the contest moot.

[MayorCarcetti]

Donohue and Humphreys have now counted themselves out. Despite some within the party wishing for a contest, Harris seems set to elected unopposed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Harris is the new Cowen, then?

[LabourJersey]

He's not even the most famous Irish Harris, that would be Richard Harris who was a Catholic. As far as I know Simon Harris is also one, though he is from Greystones, the town with the highest proportion of Protestants in the south (10%). Heather Humphreys, who's also mentioned in that article I linked, is a Presbyterian who's father was in the Orange Order.

But yeah, lot of Irish Catholics will have English/Norman surnames. Case in point - Gerry Adams. Honorable mention goes to Sean Lemass though who has a surname of Huguenot origin.

Learning that a member of the Republic of Ireland's Cabinet is a Presbyterian with family in the Orange Order is... quite the surprise to me.

Irish politics is a lot more complicated than one would think!

[ObserverIE]

Post-defenestration polling, x-posted from the Other Place:

RedC for the Business Post:

SF 25 (-3)
FG 19 (-1)
Ind/Oth 19 (+3)
FF 16 (-)
SD 6 (-1)
Aontú 5 (+2)
GP 4 (+1)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 3 (-)

Post-referendum bounce for Aontú at the expense of SF, perhaps, although this is tempered by RedC having been the one pollster which not only showed the doomed referendums passing, but also displayed absolutely no doubt about their outcome. Polling ended on Wednesday, so probably just too late to catch Varadkar's resignation.

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 27 (-)
FG 22 (+2)
FF 17 (-1)
Ind/Oth 14 (-3)
SD 6 (-1)
GP 4 (-)
Lab 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (+2)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

IrelandThinks, who also polled the referendum wrong but who at least showed it on a downward trajectory beforehand, poll after Varadkar's resignation and when it was clear that Harris would be succeeding him.

Both of these poll via online panels, which in the past, when we had a monthly face-to-face pollster to compare them with, tended to produce overly-good results for Online parties (the SocDems above all, but Aontú might also be benefiting here) and overly-bad results for those parties which are not at all Online (the most obvious here being FF). I am skeptical if FG are ahead of FF much if at all.

[MayorCarcetti]

With nominations ending today and no other candidates declaring, Simon Harris has become Fine Gael leader today. Should things go to plan, he'll be elected Taoiseach by the Dail after the Easter recess (9 April).

[ObserverIE]

He's not even the most famous Irish Harris, that would be Richard Harris who was a Catholic. As far as I know Simon Harris is also one, though he is from Greystones, the town with the highest proportion of Protestants in the south (10%). Heather Humphreys, who's also mentioned in that article I linked, is a Presbyterian who's father was in the Orange Order.

But yeah, lot of Irish Catholics will have English/Norman surnames. Case in point - Gerry Adams. Honorable mention goes to Sean Lemass though who has a surname of Huguenot origin.

Learning that a member of the Republic of Ireland's Cabinet is a Presbyterian with family in the Orange Order is... quite the surprise to me.

Irish politics is a lot more complicated than one would think!

There's a sizeable Protestant population in Cavan-Monaghan, especially in Monaghan (more Presbyterians there than in Fermanagh), and there has usually been a "Protestant" slot on the FG ticket in the constituency - Robert Faussett from Cavan in the 1980s, succeeded by Seymour Crawford from Monaghan in the 1990s, who was in turn succeeded by Humphreys.

[MayorCarcetti]

He's not even the most famous Irish Harris, that would be Richard Harris who was a Catholic. As far as I know Simon Harris is also one, though he is from Greystones, the town with the highest proportion of Protestants in the south (10%). Heather Humphreys, who's also mentioned in that article I linked, is a Presbyterian who's father was in the Orange Order.

But yeah, lot of Irish Catholics will have English/Norman surnames. Case in point - Gerry Adams. Honorable mention goes to Sean Lemass though who has a surname of Huguenot origin.

Learning that a member of the Republic of Ireland's Cabinet is a Presbyterian with family in the Orange Order is... quite the surprise to me.

Irish politics is a lot more complicated than one would think!

There's a sizeable Protestant population in Cavan-Monaghan, especially in Monaghan (more Presbyterians there than in Fermanagh), and there has usually been a "Protestant" slot on the FG ticket in the constituency - Robert Faussett from Cavan in the 1980s, succeeded by Seymour Crawford from Monaghan in the 1990s, who was in turn succeeded by Humphreys.

Mentioned Greystones has the highest proportion of Protestants of any town in the south, but the village Humphreys from is actually one of if not the only places (officially a townland) in the Republic that has a Protestant majority.

Going back further, another well-known Protestant Monaghan politician was Billy Fox, who was shot dead in 1974.. He was the only member of the Oireachtas to be assassinated during The Troubles (and first since Minister for Justice Kevin O'Higgins in 1927).

[ObserverIE]

https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/1773695210242945121

[CumbrianLefty]

Its on the UK thread already

[ObserverIE]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

[CumbrianLefty]

And again, why are parties so fond of coronations when they very often don't work that well.

[ObserverIE]

And again, why are parties so fond of coronations when they very often don't work that well.

The words "hospital pass" come to mind here, given that the recipient of the pass is both transparently ambitious and transparently without any principles other than his own advancement and that this is a party that would be seeking nineteen consecutive years in office.

On reflection, Harris had all his ducks in a row beforehand and the relative heavyweights (Donohoe and Humphreys) recognised that early on. The only other person to have made an attempt to round up the necessary nominations was hyper-ambitious junior minister and walking SoCoDu stereotype Jennifer Carroll-MacNeill and even she had acknowledged defeat by the Wednesday morning and endorsed the inevitable.

[Harlow]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

How long until we start seeing some numbers for Independent Ireland? I have to assume some of the Ind/Oth vote increase is driven by right-wing voters flocking to II.

[morgieb]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

What sort of government would those figures lead to? Another FG/FF/Greens coalition?

[MayorCarcetti]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

What sort of government would those figures lead to? Another FG/FF/Greens coalition?

This is a breakdown of this poll I believe when it comes to estimated seats 88 needed for a majority so the current coalition would fall short. Currently the most logical match-up would be Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail and the Social Democrats but whether that could come to fruition is another thing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

How long until we start seeing some numbers for Independent Ireland? I have to assume some of the Ind/Oth vote increase is driven by right-wing voters flocking to II.

Are they (now) an actual political party? If so, they should surely start being mentioned in their own right if they have non-negligible polling support.

[MayorCarcetti]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

How long until we start seeing some numbers for Independent Ireland? I have to assume some of the Ind/Oth vote increase is driven by right-wing voters flocking to II.

Independent Ireland haven't really taken off yet and tbh I can't see them getting too much steam. They'll have a niche in rural areas but there's not a charismatic figure between their current lot of TD's, Michael Collins from Cork (no not that one), Michael Fitzmaurice from Roscommon-Galway and Richard O'Donoghue from Limerick to real ignite the burgeoning far-right movement in Ireland. That said they did get a bit of a coup this week in announcing Ciaran Mullooly, a well-respected and well-known former RTE reporter as a candidate for the European election in Midlands-North West.

On that note actually, there has been a somewhat of a growing trend towards 'famous faces' running in the European elections recently in Ireland. Back in the day there was Dana (1970 Eurovision winner) who was elected as independent conservative Catholic values candidate on the back of a presidential run. Then there was Mairead McGuinness who started off a tv presenter on the agricultural show 'Ear to the Ground'. Having gone on to be vice-president of the European Parliament and a Commissioner, she looks set to emulate Mary McAleese as a former journalist to be elected President

As for the present, Fine Gael have Maria Walsh as an MEP in the Midlands-North West, a Rose of Tralee winner (the Rose of Tralee been the endearingly antiquated inspiration for Father Ted's Lovely Girls competition), and in this election, in the same constituency, will be running Nina Carberry, a jockey who is married into the famous Walsh horse racing family. Fianna Fail meanwhile will have Cynthia Ní Mhurchú, a qualified barrister and former broadcaster who hosted the 1994 Eurovision Song Contest.

[LabourJersey]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

What sort of government would those figures lead to? Another FG/FF/Greens coalition?

This is a breakdown of this poll I believe when it comes to estimated seats 88 needed for a majority so the current coalition would fall short. Currently the most logical match-up would be Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail and the Social Democrats but whether that could come to fruition is another thing.

How open is Fianna Fáil to joining a coalition with Sinn Fein? I was under the impression that FF would be really resistant to such a coalition.

[MayorCarcetti]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

What sort of government would those figures lead to? Another FG/FF/Greens coalition?

This is a breakdown of this poll I believe when it comes to estimated seats 88 needed for a majority so the current coalition would fall short. Currently the most logical match-up would be Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail and the Social Democrats but whether that could come to fruition is another thing.

How open is Fianna Fáil to joining a coalition with Sinn Fein? I was under the impression that FF would be really resistant to such a coalition.

It sort of uncertain, but yes there is clearly massive reservations, and if it did happen there would be major questions over it's stability. Martin in the last year for instance has both ruled it out and not ruled it out. Like the grand coalition, it's the kind of thing that seems unthinkable until it isn't. Kinda depends on the leadership of the party too - Martin is clearly reluctant but last time around Jim O'Callaghan, who was perhaps the most high profile rebel in the party, seemed interested.

[MayorCarcetti]

Simon Harris has been formally elected as Taoiseach today. The Dail voted 88 to 69 in favour of him, with the coalition parties been joined by a number of independents.

The cabinet reshuffle hasn't been as dramatic as some may have anticipated. Junior ministers Patrick O'Donovan and Peter Burke have been promoted - O'Donovan to Higher Education (Harris's old post) and Burke to Entreprise (replacing Coveney) but otherwise it largely as you were. McEntee survives at Justice despite many calls for her removal. A few more Minister for States (i.e junior ministers) will be announced tomorrow

[ObserverIE]

The Sunday Times have got themselves a new pollster, called Opinions, of whom I've never heard but who conducted what seems to have been face-to-face polls for the last two months and are now releasing the April poll. Update: No, they seem to be an offshoot of RedC and we can take it that this is yet another panel poll with all the issues associated with that.

Opinions, for the Sunday Times (comparisons with the "benchmark" poll in March):

SF 27 (+1)
FG 20 (+3)
FF 16 (-)
Ind/Oth 16 (-1)
GP 6 (+1)
Lab 5 (-)
SD 4 (-3)
SWP/SP 3 (-)
Aontú 3 (-1)

I know nothing about this company and some of the results - particularly the high votes for the Greens and the decaying husk officially referred to as the Irish Labour Party - I am extremely skeptical about. It doesn't help that almost all the "broadsheet" newspapers are by this stage fluffers for FG.

[Cassius]

Does FF have any support base these days beyond Old Dears who have stood by the party in times good and times bad (I try to follow Irish politics but it’s a Byzantine business)?

[ObserverIE]

Does FF have any support base these days beyond Old Dears who have stood by the party in times good and times bad (I try to follow Irish politics but it’s a Byzantine business)?

It is disproportionately dependent on the support bases of individual TDs and councillors, although it is probably the least aggravating of the three coalition parties from the POV of the normie voter (FG having been there for far too long now, and the Greens being seen as a set of preachy incompetent meddlers).