Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

Btw You didn't answer my question:

Sorry, didn't see it.

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I'm an undecided. I'll wait till it's signed and finalised and then take a bit of a read through it.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Ah Okay at least you shall make an informed (I was originally going to write "uninformed" in a Freudian slip, perhaps?) decision according to the vast sum of prejudices once has gathered though life experience your point of view. So shall I. I think.

The government will of course try and ruin any potential debate as possible or to reduce it to RTE standards (see above).

[Јas]

Ah Okay at least you shall make an informed (I was originally going to write "uninformed" in a Freudian slip, perhaps?) decision according to the vast sum of prejudices once has gathered though life experience your point of view.

The government will of course try and ruin any potential debate as possible to reduce to RTE standards (see above).

Well, the Government is limited by the McKenna Principles on what it can do regarding a referendum. We'll have to wait and see how good a job the Referendum Commission manage on informing the public, unfortunately I think they've never really met my expectations on this measure.

The parties in favour though won't have to do much for a debate to be reduced to an absurd position simply by virtue of who the opposition is. Like I said above, Sinn Féin, the Socialist Party, Dana, Justin Barrett et al, are unlikely to present rational, coherent and sensible arguments.

The standard, tried and tested (if bland and largely devoid of meaning) arguments in favour of EU treaties will no doubt be shipped out again and short still be good enough to carry the day.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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My experience mainly runs towards mysterious leafets coming through the letter box that no-one ever reads.

Anyway to be pedantic the Government itself is of course limited to what it can or can't do in terms of finances. Of course there are no laws on how TDs will debate on television or on the radio; or how their misinformation will be put across.

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You forgot Anthony Crawley (I think that's his name) - no-one knows what he does exactly but he always seem to randomly appear to attack the EU during referendum campaigns and then suddenly vanish afterwards till the next referendum (save a few letters to the Irish Times) - As for the "absurd position" god help the country once the "opposition" gets its house in order, if that is possible. You would at least think that our TDs would try some intelligent debate to smash up the opposition - instead of screaming, shouting, instilling guilt\fear into the populace and being belligerant.

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Yes.

Oh if only one person - one person - in this whole Anti debate could look up what the Broken Window fallacy was then the Establishment (I do hate that word, but I am being lazy tonight - as well as avoiding studying for my first college exam tommorow. Students!) would be in serious trouble. Observe.

Cliche representative TD: The EU has been great for Ireland, The Economy of Ireland, End of conflict and war in Europe, Peace, etc, et bloody cetera.
The Voice of Reason: Excuse me, do you know what the Broken window fallacy is? It means you are seeing events in a very straight line without even thinking what might have been. Just because the Economy is very good and we are in the EU doesn't neccesarily mean that those things are linked. It's the nature of life that we can't be certain what happened if we went down paths we may have chosen instead of the ones we did. Perhaps Ireland would really be a knowledge economy and have an even higher GDP (side note: and we all know that's the most important thing EVAR!)  if we didn't join the EU in 1973, that is unless you have evidence to back up your assertion.
Cliche representative TD: Er... Ehhm... TEH POLES!111 De Keltic Tigah!11....

[Јas]

Anyway to be pedantic the Government itself is of course limited to what it can or can't do in terms of finances. Of course there are no laws on how TDs will debate on television or on the radio; or how their misinformation will be put across.

True, pretty much. (It depends on how you interpret McKenna and whether they're representing the government and whether you can tie any exchequer funding to their activity.)

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You forgot Anthony Crawley (I think that's his name) - no-one knows what he does exactly but he always seem to randomly appear to attack the EU during referendum campaigns and then suddenly vanish afterwards till the next referendum (save a few letters to the Irish Times) - As for the "absurd position" god help the country once the "opposition" gets its house in order, if that is possible. You would at least think that our TDs would try some intelligent debate to smash up the opposition - instead of screaming, shouting, instilling guilt\fear into the populace and being belligerant.

Frankly, a great many of our TDs simply aren't in a position to offer intelligent debate on such things - it's not like that's what they were elected for or something they've had any practice at.

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Yes.

Oh if only one person - one person - in this whole Anti debate could look up what the Broken Window fallacy was then the Establishment (I do hate that word, but I am being lazy tonight - as well as avoiding studying for my first college exam tommorow. Students!) would be in serious trouble. Observe.

An exam! In the first semester in Arts! Boo no! Ah, the good old days of 1BA in Galway *reminisces*

Cliche representative TD: The EU has been great for Ireland, The Economy of Ireland, End of conflict and war in Europe, Peace, etc, et bloody cetera.
The Voice of Reason: Excuse me, do you know what the Broken window fallacy is? It means you are seeing events in a very straight line without even thinking what might have been. Just because the Economy is very good and we are in the EU doesn't neccesarily mean that those things are linked. It's the nature of life that we can't be certain what happened if we went down paths we may have chosen instead of the ones we did. Perhaps Ireland would really be a knowledge economy and have an even higher GDP (side note: and we all know that's the most important thing EVAR!)  if we didn't join the EU in 1973, that is unless you have evidence to back up your assertion.
Cliche representative TD: Er... Ehhm... TEH POLES!111 De Keltic Tigah!11....

Your little sketches do amuse, I'll give you that.

But, FTR, I don't think you'll find any credible economists who think we'd be in a better position economically had we never joined the EEC. Just about every treatise on the origins of the Celtic Tiger attribute credit to our position within the EEC/EC/EU - whether by reason of the benefits of market access, structural funds or whatever.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Thus the "Back up assertion" bit. I'm not doubting it's truth so much as why people come about to that said truth. I don't claim any knowledge because I have little knowledge in that field, but then again neither do our TDs really.

This is thing most people have been told this is truth for so long without really doubting it; once the "Back up the assertion" bit comes up it all falls down - as if you have touched some taboo subject.

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I aim to please.

[Јas]

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Thus the "Back up assertion" bit. I'm not doubting it's truth so much as why people come about to that said truth. I don't claim any knowledge because I have little knowledge in that field, but then again neither do our TDs really.

This is thing most people have been told this is truth for so long without really doubting it; once the "Back up the assertion" bit comes up it all falls down - as if you have touched some taboo subject.

Free trade between the member states is (and always has been) a cornerstone of the European project. In simplest terms, free trade leads to efficiency gains due to increased competition in a market, which gives consumers greater choice and lower prices. Lower prices means an increase in real income for the consumer. The increased competition tends to eliminate those operations which aren't efficient enough to produce their product at a lower price or to distinguish themselves in terms of quality or some other way. The resources that went into such enterprises was thus inefficiently applied and can now be re-applied in some other way.

(I'd underline that I'm speaking in very broad terms and am not looking for an economic debate on this subject in case some economically incorrigible posters happen to read this and decide to dismantle the effort.)

So, to give the gist, free trade encourages greater economic efficiency which benefits consumers in terms of choice and prices (and so income). etc. etc. Enterprises which are good at what they do can more easily expand and increase their incomes. (Or that's the theory anyway...)

Having put in place low corporate tax rates and being able to offer effectively unfettered access to the European market (and having a young, educated English speaking workforce which was no longer woefully strike prone thanks to Social Partnership Agreements) with improving infrastructure (helped by European funding) altogether helped a great deal.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yes, you see - now you understand, even if it is vaguely correct (or really, not the whole story) - the question is, how many people who will vote 'yes' know that?

[Јas]

how many people who will vote 'yes' know that?

No idea.

I certainly didn't know anything about economics before college, and that alone was a significant factor in deciding to do the subject to degree level ahead of other areas I have an interest in but felt I wasn't going to gain a whole lot from.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

how many people who will vote 'yes' know that?

No idea.

I certainly didn't know anything about economics before college, and that alone was a significant factor in deciding to do the subject to degree level ahead of other areas I have an interest in but felt I wasn't going to gain a whole lot from.

Strongly agree.

You see I'm not doubting the story that the EU is responsible for Ireland's growth; just that the way it is presented (without question) is just totally wrong.

[Јas]

how many people who will vote 'yes' know that?

No idea.

I certainly didn't know anything about economics before college, and that alone was a significant factor in deciding to do the subject to degree level ahead of other areas I have an interest in but felt I wasn't going to gain a whole lot from.

Strongly agree.

You see I'm not doubting the story that the EU is responsible for Ireland's growth; just that the way it is presented (without question) is just totally wrong.

I wouldn't say 'responsible for' myself, something closer to 'significantly contributed to' (life's great out here on the edge!) but yeah, there's truth in your point on presentation. It might be a combination of reasons: they might believe that the people won't understand it/will be confused by it/will be utterly bored or disininterested by it/whatever.

If it was simply an economic matter though, I don't think it would be a problem. The real difficult issue is explaining to people why so much of our legislative/executive power is seemingly being funnelled along to Brussels. This Treaty will move a significant number issues that were vetoable into the sphere of Qualified Majority Voting. Explaining why this has been agreed to and why it's a good thing is not a simple task. Economic co-operation is one thing, but the dilution of national sovereignty and the movement towards 'ever closer Union' (new EU Foreign Minister; EU Battlegroups; etc.) is quite another.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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That 'responsible for' comment was just laziness.

But if you present these things in a way which is boring and confusing (which it often is) then it won't be surprising if the public reacts with boredom and confusion. That's the problem with politics in the western world right now - too much meaningless talk, not enough meat.

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Which is partially why the debate is being muzzled.

[Јas]

That's the problem with politics in the western world right now - too much meaningless talk, not enough meat.

That reminds me of a letter I was reading just the other day in The Economist:
"...The freer the speech, the cheaper it becomes. Put differently, the less free it is the more courage and cunning is required to speak out, so there is less blabber.

When speech is restricted, every single word from a poet, writer, or philosopher counts. On occasion it has the force of thunder. Many from behind the iron curtain of communism will thus remember the good old times, when free speech was but a dream. Back then, speaking was an art. And so was listening."

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Which is partially why the debate is being muzzled.

Well I wouldn't say muzzled, but it will certainly be shied away from/constantly re-pivoted to the 'Keltic Tigah' style argument you've set out.

BTW, what's your new username about?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That letter in the Economist is only somewhat true as it assumes that in democracy like Western Europe it is inevitable that speech will be cheapened by political leaders. Rather in the west political affairs are made abstract from the day to day affairs of living which leads to such abuses of language (well, that's not all of it of course. But I'm not bothered to do a lengthy explanation right now) while in the Warsaw Pact states it was opposite - one was made aware of the state and it's ideological role every single day from one's first breath.

Hey I've finally achieved something.. My "Keltic Tigah" is catching on. Hmm.. Better copyright it first.

As for my username, it means nothing really. I just felt it was amusing and I wanted a change from being Ignatius Reilly.

[Јas]

After approving a 16% pay increase to himself just last week which keeps him much more highly paid than the British PM; German Chancellor; or American President, today we get the headline 'Taoiseach urges restraint in pay talks' (RTÉ Online). There are no words...

[minionofmidas]

Ireland's never been United under "native" rule, unless you count the Rule of high king Brian Boru (1002-1014); but he was really more of a weak Feudal type monarch in an island with no sense of central authority; that idea came from the British.

It is therefore a deeply unirish idea that should have been soundly rejected after independence.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Ireland's never been United under "native" rule, unless you count the Rule of high king Brian Boru (1002-1014); but he was really more of a weak Feudal type monarch in an island with no sense of central authority; that idea came from the British.

It is therefore a deeply unirish idea that should have been soundly rejected after independence.

Strongly Agree btw.

EDIT: Not to mention that alot of what is considered "Irish Culture" was pretty much invented on the spot as a response to British rule. Prior to the coming of the Normans or hell even up to the Cromwellian invasion and the Counter-Reformation (out of which out "Irishness" grew) the cultural, linguistic and economic life of say, a man living in Waterford would just be as alien to say someone living Donegal as the "English way of life" was; if not more so.

[Јas]

A new poll will be published in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post, conducted by RedC. It seems the SPB is going to continue it's monthly tracking polls for the foreseeable future.

As is now my custom, here's a quick list of some of the major Irish stories since the last poll:

• Health care debacles Continue: Failures in the cancer screening of almost 100 women emerged; Labour will put forward a motion of no confidence in Minister for Health, Mary Harney (PD-Dublin MW) next Tuesday;
• The Irish stock market suffers a bad week; Housing market slump continues; Unemployment figures creeping upwards;
• Pay rise controversy regarding Taoiseach and Cabinet;
• UDA announces that it's standing down;
• It emerges that Noel Grealish (PD-Galway W) has already had some discussions about eventually joining FF;
• Controversial plans for a waste incinerator in the constituency of the Minister for the Environment, John Gormley (Green-Dublin SE) get the go ahead from An Bord Pleanála (The Planning Board);
• A strike by Dublin Bus caused severe disruption in the north of the city;

Detailed poll results below. In short though, FF take a massive hit (-7), picked up by FG (+4) and Labour (+3). If this is to be believed FF lie but 1 point ahead of FG in public opinion.

	23 May	24 May	23 Sept	28 Oct	25 Nov
	RedC	Election	RedC	RedC	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	40	39	32
Fine Gael	26	27.3	27	27	31
Labour	11	10.1	11	10	13
Green	6	4.7	7	7	9
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	6	8	7
PD	3	2.7	3	2	2
Other	7	6.6	6	7	7

[Hash]

Go Fine Gael!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Go Fine Gael!

No.

I'm bored so I'll try and figure out what that would be like with the new constituency boundaries (Nearly impossible because you can never tell where the next Jackie Healy-Rae or Boyd Barrett will be; plus of course personal votes and like. But as I said I am bored.)

I'll do my heartland:
DUBLIN SOUTH: The increase in the Green vote is very, very interesting - doubling from the election (almost) I suspect that nationally the Green vote is levelling out enough so that it will probably do better in the sticks than in 2002 but much less well in Dublin; though perhaps DS would not be the worst constituency for them in this regard. At the level of the poll Ryan would easily be elected again; as would both FG members and at least one from FF. Battle between FF and Labour for the final seat. So, 2FF 2FG 1GREEN (Status Quo; but in such a scenario things would depend alot on transfers and it is hard to believe that labour won't win a seat here with 13% nationally given that they probably would have won one this time except for the distaster that was the two candidate strategy.)

DUN LAOGHAIRE: Lost a seat and some of it's most poshest areas to DS in the last re-distrubtion (you can have Foxrock back, thanks) this makes the Green situation nearly impossible but also extremely difficult for FF to hold onto Barry Andrews' seat with those types of scores (it was considered under threat before the election though and then he came only a few hundred votes short at the second count). And what about a potential Labour leader bounce. So, 2FF 1FG 1LAB would still seem the most likely. But perhaps DL will return to it's FG roots in the future..*shrugs*

DUBLIN SOUTH EAST: A nearly impossible task to predict the richest (mostly) seat in the country and one which not by concidence imo (despite what some people think) one of the areas with the lowest FF votes. Anyway with those sorts of scores FF would probably lose here quite, quite horribly badly. Gormley (Green) would top the poll; but where would McDowell's first vote go (maybe to FF; but that is not the historic correlation despite the coalitions.) Anyway I'd go with the Status Quo; though possibly a second FG gain from FF. (So, FF 1 FG 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1)

DUBLIN SOUTH WEST: Again Status quo looks the more likely as the Sinn Fein vote has remained very static since the election. Hard to see an opportunity for a second FG or Labour seat. Yet Leninhan is vulnerable as may be O'Connor. (So, FF 2, FG 1, LAB 1)

DUBLIN MID WEST: This monument to horrible suburban sprawl, complete lack of planning and the (unbelievably) corrupt FF local government in Dublin of the 1980s is another "god knows" constituency. Again a low FF vote; though the PDs still hold here Harney is retiring in 2012 (apparently) and with FG's numbers it's almost impossible to imagine them not taking a seat here which they came close to winning; I could see this being a place where a sitting Green TD will fall flat on his face come 2012 but assuming national swings *shrugs* (There is a possibility btw that Joe Higgins will move down here; personally I could extremists doing well in this seat so it's possible alright. Potential SF target too) So, FF 1 FG 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1

DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL: Surely Michael Mulcahy (FF-DSC) can't continue to do f all for five years and still be re-elected? Labour have good numbers and so do Sinn Fein and with those numbers labour would probably gain off FF; though I would not rule out a Gay Mitchell comeback. Which of course dramatically everything (though I suspect C. Byrne the sitting FG TD here is pretty safe.) funny constituency really. FF 1 FG 1 LABOUR 2 SF 1

So that would be: FF 9(-1), FG 7(+1), LAB 6(+1), GREEN 3(-1; but only due to seat change), SF 1.

Which all seems depressingly status quo despite great percentage shifts; though North Dublin is likely to be much more interesting really; especially with Bertie Retiring.

[Verily]

Go Fine Gael!

Trust me, you don't really support Fine Gael. They're not any different from Fianna Fail in any way that a non-Irishman would appreciate. (And my impression is that neither of our two Irish posters appreciates the "difference", either.)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Go Fine Gael!

Trust me, you don't really support Fine Gael. They're not any different from Fianna Fail in any way that a non-Irishman would appreciate. (And my impression is that neither of our two Irish posters appreciates the "difference", either.)

Now that depends, how long have you got?

[Јas]

They're not any different from Fianna Fail in any way that a non-Irishman would appreciate. (And my impression is that neither of our two Irish posters appreciates the "difference", either.)

I would think Gully is fairly anti-FF and not quite so anti-FG, if that makes sense.

Personally, I feel there are differences (subtle as they may be). These differences are malleable though, hugely influenced by whoever the respective party leaders are. Personally, I have significant issues with the idea of Enda Kenny (FG Leader) as Taoiseach to the point that despite everything (and believing that he should have resigned/been resigned at this stage) I feel that Ahern is probably the more preferable of the two (). (That said there are members of both parties I would preference far ahead of both Ahern and Kenny.) I'd also note that I've not yet 1st preferenced either a FF or FG candidate in an election; nor tended to preference either's candidates very highly where any reasonable choices were present.

In a general ideological sense, I would suggest that FG fit slightly easier into the standard Christian Democratic mould; are probably more pro-European (in terms of the European ideal); and are slightly less 'green' in the Nationalist sense (i.e. take a stronger line against SF and Republicans, more sympathetic to the Unionists, British, etc.).

FF (I think) are more interested simply in being a party of government rather than anything else and are willing to shift positions to meet this goal. A certain portion of their membership have a social democratic side (probably due to the strong working class support they get compared to FG). FF are also pro-Europe but in more of a 'what can we get out of it' sense; they are also certainly more strongly nationalist (as evidenced by there decision to try and set up and compete in the North).

It should probably also be stated that FF are usually less comfortable dealing with coalition partners (Ahern is an exception in this sense); and that FF have a much worse record regarding corruption matters, though this is no doubt linked to the fact that they are more often in power. (I should say though that I don't think corruption is a significant issue anymore.)

In short, yes there are differences, but they are subtle and both party's positions are liable to change quite a bit with any given leader. Neither particularly appeal to me in any great way though I could probably pick out a number of individuals from both parties who I wouldn't have a problem with in government positions.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Actually believe or not that would actually depend on what area of the country I live in; though where I live in I most certainly prefer FG to FF. Even if one of our local FG TDs is hopelessness personified.

Though in saying that if I lived in somewhere like say Cork South West I would not vote for Fianna Fail o\c I would either a) just vote for labour\greens or More likely b) scribble all over the ballot paper and leave a giant penmark leaving the words HIV\AIDS with a giant "1" to the right of it on the paper.

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Now where does one begin with this...

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HP.

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I was going to 'yes': but then I couldn't think of any member of FF which I ever consider giving a preference to. Certainly none of the cabinet anyway.

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That's better. . Anyway you are registered in Cavan\Monaghan so that's understandable; as the only alternative is SF.

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I would go along with something like this; the latter bit was certainly true during the last two FG led governments (Yes such things actually existed once!) under Bruton and Fitzgerald.

In general I would say that Fianna Fail ideology, though that term is itself rather misleading, is "Ireland - ism", to put it more clearly what I mean I will quote some guy I once read in the newspaper and can't recall his name "There is nothing wrong with Ireland that isn't wrong with Fianna Fail. And there is nothing wrong with Fianna fail that isn't wrong with Ireland" ever since Dev its vision has been one of "Progressive 'realist' (ie. Status quo) nationalism, it's objective is to strengthen the nation and the process help out all the special interest groups which form the party (actually wait a minute that should be the other way round.) - in the American sense I would say it is favour more of "bigger government" and more "populist" than FG: not that it really matters with the FG-LAB alliance of neccesity.

Or to keep it short, FF shifts when the nation shifts; In the 1930s it was protectionist nationalism mixed with a moderate form of corporatism, in the 1960s it was a more internationalist approach as the world outside was beginning to be revealed (though not for many FF supporters I believe!) and started to remove all the trade barriers and liberalize the economy - but keep many of the most corporatist aspects. In the 1980s it was denial of reality and in the 2000s it is now neo-liberalism though keeping the more populist aspects to support the special interests.

FG on the other hand is the party of big farmers, horribly posh South Dublinites and local small town aristocrats who had to choose between becoming a TD and running Daddy's business (often being a TD IS Daddy's business - but this is true for both parties) and here Jas is right; FG is much more pro-Europe in the sense that is somewhat ideological as opposed "OMG IT wILL BE GOOD FOR TEH ECONOMEEEEEEE!!!111. FG is a much middle class party than FF - the constituencies it does best in - Cork South West, Dublin SE, Dublin S, Dun Laoghaire, Kildare and Meath (though the latter few are really just historically) are more "middle class" than their worst seats such as Dublin North west; which despite FF governments constantly fucking them over vote for FF or occasionally Labour or SF - if that is they vote at all. (Unsurprisingly in Ireland there is a strong link between voter turnout and class - though all things Ireland and class related that should be put with a warning beside it.)

So yeah I'd say what Jas said was pretty accurate. Though I'd say the previous problems of Fianna Fail and coalitions mainly has to do with FF not needing one and Albert Reynolds' being an arrogant twonk (no surprise there).

[Јas]

I'm bored so I'll try and figure out what that would be like with the new constituency boundaries (Nearly impossible because you can never tell where the next Jackie Healy-Rae or Boyd Barrett will be; plus of course personal votes and like. But as I said I am bored.)

Of course.

I'll do my heartland:
DUBLIN SOUTH: The increase in the Green vote is very, very interesting - doubling from the election (almost) I suspect that nationally the Green vote is levelling out enough so that it will probably do better in the sticks than in 2002 but much less well in Dublin; though perhaps DS would not be the worst constituency for them in this regard. At the level of the poll Ryan would easily be elected again; as would both FG members and at least one from FF. Battle between FF and Labour for the final seat. So, 2FF 2FG 1GREEN (Status Quo; but in such a scenario things would depend alot on transfers and it is hard to believe that labour won't win a seat here with 13% nationally given that they probably would have won one this time except for the distaster that was the two candidate strategy.)

I agree with your take on the Green performance.

If this polls numbers became reality, Dublin South would be very difficult to call. Ryan should be able to retain his seat for the Greens. FF and FG both safely return one each. FF, FG and Labour would be competing for the final two seats. Probably the status quo, but with a single Labour candidate and 3 FF and 3 FG candidates; and the significant bundle of O'Donnell's PD votes up for grabs - there are plausible scenarios for different returns.

Anyhow, I would agree with your call: FF 2; FG 2; Green 1 (No change)

DUN LAOGHAIRE: Lost a seat and some of it's most poshest areas to DS in the last re-distrubtion (you can have Foxrock back, thanks) this makes the Green situation nearly impossible but also extremely difficult for FF to hold onto Barry Andrews' seat with those types of scores (it was considered under threat before the election though and then he came only a few hundred votes short at the second count). And what about a potential Labour leader bounce. So, 2FF 1FG 1LAB would still seem the most likely. But perhaps DL will return to it's FG roots in the future..*shrugs*

With the combination of the serious hit to FF and the higher quota, I'd suggest that FF would quite possibly lose Andrew's seat here. FG and Labour should be about to get one each. I suspect it would be between Cuffe and Andews for the last seat, an so long as Cuffe could hang on until then (it will be very interesting to see if Boyd-Barrett runs again and how he would do) he should get the necessary transfers from elsewhere to eek it out again.

So, I'll differ from your call and say: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; Green 1 (FF -1)

DUBLIN SOUTH EAST: A nearly impossible task to predict the richest (mostly) seat in the country and one which not by concidence imo (despite what some people think) one of the areas with the lowest FF votes. Anyway with those sorts of scores FF would probably lose here quite, quite horribly badly. Gormley (Green) would top the poll; but where would McDowell's first vote go (maybe to FF; but that is not the historic correlation despite the coalitions.) Anyway I'd go with the Status Quo; though possibly a second FG gain from FF. (So, FF 1 FG 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1)

I'd agree that the status quo would be most likely, in fact, I think with McDowell gone, and the FF vote going down, it's very likely.

Don't really see any way FG could get a second seat, if fact I doubt they'd run for one and on that basis I'll only really disagree with you to the extent that I'd say that Creighton would top the poll for FG.

Call: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; Green 1
(Unchanged)

DUBLIN SOUTH WEST: Again Status quo looks the more likely as the Sinn Fein vote has remained very static since the election. Hard to see an opportunity for a second FG or Labour seat. Yet Leninhan is vulnerable as may be O'Connor. (So, FF 2, FG 1, LAB 1)

On these numbers the odds would be that FF would lose a seat, presumably O'Connors, to SF IMO - though this would depend on the SF candidate and SF efforts on the ground.

Call: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; SF 1
(SF gain from FF)

DUBLIN MID WEST: This monument to horrible suburban sprawl, complete lack of planning and the (unbelievably) corrupt FF local government in Dublin of the 1980s is another "god knows" constituency. Again a low FF vote; though the PDs still hold here Harney is retiring in 2012 (apparently) and with FG's numbers it's almost impossible to imagine them not taking a seat here which they came close to winning; I could see this being a place where a sitting Green TD will fall flat on his face come 2012 but assuming national swings *shrugs* (There is a possibility btw that Joe Higgins will move down here; personally I could extremists doing well in this seat so it's possible alright. Potential SF target too) So, FF 1 FG 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1

Just where will Mary Harney's vote go - damned if I know (I'm assuming a reasonably even FF-FG split - in which case FG come close to a full quota in this scenario). I'd agree that Gogarty's Green vote will come under pressure here and that SF should be challenging, however there should be enough transfers from across the board to keep him ahead - just about. (It's quite possible though that his vote will deflate badly though and leave him with an unassailable deficit.)

Call: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; Green 1 (FG gain from PD)

DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL: Surely Michael Mulcahy (FF-DSC) can't continue to do f all for five years and still be re-elected? Labour have good numbers and so do Sinn Fein and with those numbers labour would probably gain off FF; though I would not rule out a Gay Mitchell comeback. Which of course dramatically everything (though I suspect C. Byrne the sitting FG TD here is pretty safe.) funny constituency really. FF 1 FG 1 LABOUR 2 SF 1

Definitely 1 each for FF; FG; and Labour. FF; Lab; and SF competing for the final two and I suspect the Green vote will be decisive in determining the winner; as well as who between FF and Lab achieve better vote management. Very hard to call - but I'm tempted to agree with you.

Call: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 2; SF 1 (Lab gain from FF)

So that would be: FF 9(-1), FG 7(+1), LAB 6(+1), GREEN 3(-1; but only due to seat change), SF 1.

And for me:
FF 7 (-3); FG 7 (+1); Lab 6 (+1); Green 4 (Unchanged); SF 2 (+1); PD 0 (-1)

Which all seems depressingly status quo despite great percentage shifts; though North Dublin is likely to be much more interesting really; especially with Bertie Retiring.

Looks like I'm painting a much more pessimistic view for FF with the lost seats being spread rather evenly among the opposition. On these projections nationally, by my reckoning, FG and Labour would be able to form a stable government with mid to high 80's in terms of TDs.