Ireland General Discussion

[Silent Hunter]

On a completely unrelated topic and for help elsewhere (specifically an RP)- what is the general Irish view of redheads?

[Јas]

On a completely unrelated topic and for help elsewhere (specifically an RP)- what is the general Irish view of redheads?

As the question befuddles me greatly, I'll have to pass on this one unfortunately.

[Јas]

From the same poll refered to above, and on the EU Reform Treaty...

In favour 26 (+1 change on October)
Against 10 (-3)
Don't Know 64 (+2)

By party...
FF (32 yes), FG (28-10), Lab (33 yes), Green (30-11) and PD (34 yes) supporters all register more in favour than against.
Sinn Féin is the only party with more against than in favour (15-21).

By class...
ABC1 (32-9)
C2DE (20-10)
F (27-8)

Knowledge of the treaty...
"When asked if they were satisfied with their level of knowledge about what is contained in the Lisbon Treaty, a massive 68 per cent of people said they were dissatisfied with just 12 per cent expressing satisfaction and 21 per cent saying they didn't know whether or not they were satisfied.

One interesting finding is that 68 per cent of those who said they were voting Yes expressed satisfaction with their level of knowledge while that figure fell to just 22 per cent among those who are voting No. Not surprisingly, 88 per cent of those in the Don't Know category are dissatisfied with their level of knowledge about the treaty."

- Irish Times Article

[afleitch]

On a completely unrelated topic and for help elsewhere (specifically an RP)- what is the general Irish view of redheads?

As the question befuddles me greatly, I'll have to pass on this one unfortunately.

My boyfriend likes red-heads..ask him He's not Irish, but he's an O'Brien..close enough.

For the record, 10% of Irish have red hair and 13% of Scots have red hair. The recessive gene is carried by about 40-45% of the Irish and Scottish populations.

[Јas]

The Sunday Business Post/Red C poll published on Sunday is below.

	May 07	May 07	Nov 07	Jan 08	Jan 08
	RedC	Election	RedC	tnsMRBI	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	32	34	36
Fine Gael	26	27.3	31	31	32
Labour	11	10.1	13	12	10
Green	6	4.7	9	6	7
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	7	8	9
PD	3	2.7	2	3	2
Other	7	6.6	7	6	4

32% is the highest Fine Gael have ever reached in a RedC poll.

Ahern
54% (+12) don't believe his evidence to the Mahon Tribunal
46% don't trust him to run the country
66% believe he should resign if found to have lied to the Tribunal

EU Reform Treaty
In favour 45
Against 25
Don't Know 30

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Polls are at this point are just so irrelevant.. except going to show on how nearly impossible it is for FG to surpass FF in sheer numbers, ever. (32% in a GE would FGs best performance since 1982 btw)

Dissapointed (but not surprised) at the Lisbon Treaty numbers.

[Јas]

Polls are at this point are just so irrelevant..

Nonsence, they give me the excuse to bump this thread!

except going to show on how nearly impossible it is for FG to surpass FF in sheer numbers, ever.

Well, given where the numbers are and that Ahern is far from in the clear; that the economy is slowing very quickly (esp. construction) and we're looking at another year with a significant fall in house prices - I'll not say it's impossible for FG (even with gormless Enda at the helm) to take a poll lead sometime this year or next.

(32% in a GE would FGs best performance since 1982 btw)

Nov 1982 General - heady days for FG:
Fianna Fáil 45.2% (75 seats)
Fine Gael 39.2% (70 seats)
Labour 9.4% (16 seats)
Workers Party 3.3% (2 seats)
Others 2.9% (3 seats)

How times have changed...

Dissapointed (but not surprised) at the Lisbon Treaty numbers.

What's interesting is the massive divergence between the tnsMRBI and RedC figures.
64% v 30% don't knows?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Listening to RTE Radio 1 reminded me of how much and why I've been trying to avoid the mainstream coverage of Irish politics since the election...

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He'll be gone by the next election. So it doesn't matter.

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True. But the next election isn't until 2012.

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Perhaps. But the next election is yadda, yadda, yadda..

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FF got less votes (%) in 2007 than in Nov1982.. and got more seats. Which goes to show how 1) powerful FF is and was especially before the rise of "cynicism" and 2) that PR-STV isn't really that proportional; nowadays the minor parties skew the results while back then there was only the North Korea Fan Club (WP) and Jim Kemmy.

[Јas]

Listening to RTE Radio 1 reminded me of how much and why I've been trying to avoid the mainstream coverage of Irish politics since the election...

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He'll be gone by the next election. So it doesn't matter.

He'll be gone by the general - but you can bet your bottom dollar that should he still be at the helm, it will have an effect on Local and European elections as well as the referenda on the Reform treaty and "children's rights".

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True. But the next election isn't until 2012.

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Perhaps. But the next election is yadda, yadda, yadda..

See above.

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FF got less votes (%) in 2007 than in Nov1982.. and got more seats. Which goes to show how 1) powerful FF is and was especially before the rise of "cynicism" and 2) that PR-STV isn't really that proportional; nowadays the minor parties skew the results while back then there was only the North Korea Fan Club (WP) and Jim Kemmy.

Well, I'm quite the fan of STV - so I'll step in to say that the '82 result was actually very proportional. But, more importantly, the use of transfers and the failure of some parties to run campaigns in many constituencies will obviously impact proportionality - and rightly so, IMO. I think these two factors explain the most significant variances from strict proportionality in 07, being:
SF (6.3% of the 1st preferences; 2.4% of the seats) who can't attract transfers;
FF (41.6%; 46.4%) run multiple candidates and campaigns in every constituency thus benefitting from lack of party competition in many areas.

Of course, should TBTB allow for more 5 seaters and indeed even bigger constituencies, the second factor would significantly lessen in importance - but I suppose I can't have everything.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Ah yes I forgot about *that*.

But still about this whole Ahern mess, I think you said it best: "The people have spoken, they don't care". (And 36% is roughly what FF was at before the election campaign last year...)

[Јas]

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Ah yes I forgot about *that*.

But still about this whole Ahern mess, I think you said it best: "The people have spoken, they don't care". (And 36% is roughly what FF was at before the election campaign last year...)

True.
But the nature of their not caring is changing, I think (if that makes sense). Through he election, the public were willing to accept that maybe Bertie did wrong, but that his circumstances were difficult, his family was breaking up, he cried to Dobbo, and he'd done all right in government so they cut him some slack.
 
Today, while I think the people aren't particularly angry about the ongoing mess, I do think they're now completely fed up with this being constantly in the spotlight; Ahern's excuses no longer offer a great deal of cover - his credibility can't withstand the continuing barage of stories that have come out. Alone it may not be enough, but compound it with woes about the health service; rising crime rates; and an economic downturn - and the public's willingness to listen wanes quite a bit.

I think they're now ready and willing to punish the government and I think they may very well take the opportunity of the referendum on the EU Reform Treaty to do that.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Me Agrees.

Remember what I said about ignoring media coverage? And this is me, polly junkie here.

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Yes; it is getting rather boring isn't it? But then again so is the whole Meeja "Politics as the Circus" act.

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I hope so. As the government is not going to make the same mistake as in Nice I (the "Ah, it be grand" mistake) something is needed to get a strong NO vote out. And no the likes of Youth Defense, Sinn Fein and Anthony Coughlan (who is this guy?) are not going to get the No vote out.

[Јas]

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I hope so. As the government is not going to make the same mistake as in Nice I (the "Ah, it be grand" mistake)

Actually, I wouldn't be too sure of that if I was you. Unless something changes, the Government position on this is going to be woefully abstract (isn't the EU marvellous; yes vote=good for democracy, human rights, etc.) and bare on detail.

In order to win this thing, they need to maximise turnout; put the kooks leading the various no campaigns front and centre to shoot them down; force FG and Labour to stand shoulder to shoulder and loudly make their case; and comprehensively and genuinely explain the significant changes the treaty makes and the consequences of a no vote.

So far, they've already decided not to hold the vote on the same day as the "children's rights" referendum (something that would generate turnout) - so this will probably be the only thing on the ballot.
They have sought to marginalise the kooks instead of putting them up on a platform where people can hear the same tired arguments against that should be relatievly easy to dismiss out of hand.
They continue to bicker with the opposition who themselves will be hesitant to commit unless they see victory as very likely.
And their statements to date have been too wishy washy, without dealing with detail.

My gut feeling today, is that unless at least some of the above changes (and bearing in mind the already discussed unpopular Taoiseach and issues re: health, crime and the economy), the people will reject the Treaty (or at least have it a fairly close run thing).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Ehh.. That's what they did in Nice II and won (except add in "OMG THINK OF TEH POLES!!1111 etc). During Nice I they tried all that because one always got the impression they couldn't be arsed. I remember seeing alot more "No" signs than "yes" signs and I live in one of the few constituencies which voted "yes" the first time around...  (and will do so again for the Lisbon Treaty; if it doesn't then you can be sure that the treaty failed and by quite a margin too.)

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Not hard - in referendums the Irish people seem to like grand fuzzy abstractions and most of those kooks quite like their time in the spotlight.

For the No campaign they should try and gain some strategy (unusual for these types) though with groups like libertas, etc(?) we might finally get some real functioning opposition on this. Anti-EU sentiment seems to vary alot around the country so their best strategy is concentrate on such areas or areas with anti-establishment tendencies such as Donegal, The Midlands and West Dublin.

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That Children's rights referendum sounds like one of those 25% turnout dealies to me (like the Bail referendum)...

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1973 Anti-EU proproganda leaflet: "Joining the EU will only lower the prices of luxury goods, such as Washing Machines, Fridges and Cars"....

Nothing has changed.

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Yes. But I doubt this effect the campaign much.

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Disagree. But it will be closer than Nice II was and "no" will win some constituencies (the Two Donegal ones and Dublin South west in particular) If that means anything..

[Јas]

Ehh.. That's what they did in Nice II and won (except add in "OMG THINK OF TEH POLES!!1111 etc).

There's only so many times you can ask people to go to the polls on the argument that after all these years we owe Europe and that eastern Europe needs our help. The argument loses potency very quickly.

Not hard - in referendums the Irish people seem to like grand fuzzy abstractions and most of those kooks quite like their time in the spotlight.

I disagree - to an extent. In most referenda, the matter is relatively straitforward - abortion; divorce; whatever.

European treaties though are complex tomes which can't come with a handy one page summary. Abstractions is all they've got (simplifies bureaucracy; improves voting system; more accountability; etc). The detail is tough and TBTB have no confidence in the public to be able to take in the detail. There explanation of the treaty will not be what gets people to the polls, unfortunately both sides will resort to the politics of fear with broad sweeping and inaccurate generalisations.

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That Children's rights referendum sounds like one of those 25% turnout dealies to me (like the Bail referendum)...

Maybe so... but every little helps.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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True. I was merely objecting to your claim that the governments position will be "woefully" abstract - it hasn't stopped them winning before.

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Did you pay attention at all to the last Abortion referendum? By the end of it I don't think anyone was sure what it was about (That we can thank Dana for really...)

As for not attracting kooks.. Hah! Remember that woman in the Count centre after the "yes" in the Divorce referendum shouting out "you are all a bunch of wife swapping sodomites".

And if the Catholic press (ever read Alive!?) is anything to by, they hate the EU almost as much as they hate sex.

Though it must be said so far the main opposition to the EU treaty I've noticed (but remember I am in a university now..) is from SWP rallies and such. (You have to admit, they do a good job stapling their posters all around town...)

[Јas]

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True. I was merely objecting to your claim that the governments position will be "woefully" abstract - it hasn't stopped them winning before.

Not on its own. But it could contribute.

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Did you pay attention at all to the last Abortion referendum? By the end of it I don't think anyone was sure what it was about (That we can thank Dana for really...)

Still infinitely more understandable than the near 200 pages of amendments to the European treaties that we'll be voting on - but indeed, you have a point.

As for not attracting kooks.. Hah! Remember that woman in the Count centre after the "yes" in the Divorce referendum shouting out "you are all a bunch of wife swapping sodomites".

And if the Catholic press (ever read Alive!?) is anything to by, they hate the EU almost as much as they hate sex.

Of course, there are always kooks, but usually there is a 'sensible' opposition group as well with reasonably normal, presentable people making relatively coherent arguments.

And indeed, I used to have the misfortune of having Alive delivered through the letterbox - it somehow had the ability to continually shock me about hardline Catholic attitudes - less said about this the better.

Though it must be said so far the main opposition to the EU treaty I've noticed (but remember I am in a university now..) is from SWP rallies and such. (You have to admit, they do a good job stapling their posters all around town...)

Can't say I've noticed too many SWP posters around myself around (or indeed any posters one way or the other). No sign of them in the city centre or Dundrum/Churchtown way anyway.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Whoever they are, I don't think I have ever seen them involved in campaigns against EU treaties.

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*Is curious to find out what Jas is doing in Dundrum*

Perhaps these posters are just around, appropriately enough, Connoly station?

(Oh the Trains, don't get me started on the trains... There has been at least two instances which have made me want to declare Jihad on Iarnród Éireann and CIE - but this is diverting from the topic somewhat.)

[Јas]

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Whoever they are, I don't think I have ever seen them involved in campaigns against EU treaties.

Granted, again the European referenda are again a special case - though I'd submit that the Greens probably came closest to filling that role in times past.

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*Is curious to find out what Jas is doing in Dundrum*

Perhaps these posters are just around, appropriately enough, Connoly station?

(Oh the Trains, don't get me started on the trains... There has been at least two instances which have made me want to declare Jihad on Iarnród Éireann and CIE - but this is diverting from the topic somewhat.)

No longer do I need worry about the travails of Connolly or Pearse station on a daily basis!

I moved to the Dundrum/Churchtown area a few weeks ago - my commute is now much more acceptable on user friendly luas

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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You are very lucky..

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As someone who (now occasionally) lives on the LUAS line I must say it is one of the few things Dublin has done right in the past 10-15 years (even if it took longer than that to finally get it finished.)

[Јas]

New poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post; as usual RedC is the pollster.

Some Irish political stories in recent weeks:

• Ahern & the Tribunal – the saga continues. Ahern went to the High Court to try and prevent questioning on certain matters claiming privilege. At the tribunal, Bertie faced anothe r2 days questioning wherein embarrasing revelations came out about more money making it's way to Bertie as well as unusual loans made from Bertie's local FF organisation.
• In the face of Ahern's continuing difficulties, the opposition have went after Ahern's obvious successor, Tánaiste & Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen (FF-Laois/Offaly). Cowen is still expressing support, though it seems to be less than absolute.
• Senator Dan Boyle (Green) indicated might be wise for Ahern to name a date of departure. Boyle is a key Green party figure and the move is seen as a sign of some unease by the Green party over Ahern's continuing leadership.
• The Government announced that it has decided the wording for the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty – thoguh it has yet to be published. It is also understood that the referendum will be held in June.
• Ned O’Keefe TD was welcomed back to Fianna Fáil. O'Keefe resigned from FF in November rather than back a vote of confidence in the Minister for Health, Mary Harney (PD-Dublin MW)
• Irish troops finally left for Chad, after a number of delays. IIRC, they make up the second largest national grouping there. Though Ireland has a long record of peace-keeping; this represents one of the more dangerous missions Irish defence force personnel have undertaken.
• Prominent FF backbencher, Mary O’Rourke (FF-Westmeath) openly criticised government policy regarding the provision of ABA therapy to children with autism.
• Half the PD parliamentary party have decided to contest the leadership. Senators Ciaran Cannon and Fiona O'Malley will be contesting the race. Neither seem to have any significant chance at being elected to the Dáil in a General Election.
• A series of statistical returns and economic projections have been released pointing to the fact that the Irish economy is slowing down. House prices continue to slide. The appreciating euro is claimed to be adversely effecting export potential.

So, the poll...

	May 07	May 07	Jan 08	Feb 08
	RedC	Election	RedC	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	36	37
Fine Gael	26	27.3	32	31
Labour	11	10.1	10	10
Green	6	4.7	7	7
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	9	8
PD	3	2.7	2	2
Other	7	6.6	4	5

Negligible changes, no more than a single percentage point on January. Despite sustained pressure on Ahern, FF gain 1. Who could blame him for staying on? The opposition have seemed stronger and have been delivering more sustained criticism of the Government than at any point in recent times - yet they have gotten no returns.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This is Ireland, what did you expect? I don't even think most (or even a significant amount of) people care, to be honest.

[Silent Hunter]

What's the feeling on the turkey vulture?

[Јas]

What's the feeling on the turkey vulture?

I think the public's choice of Dustin reflects both the general attitude to the quality of songs we've been sending recently and the belief that the eastern European countries seem to be supporting their neighbours regardless of song quality. So we've decided to send over a joke song with a joke performer. Though there are some who clearly disagree with the decision (Dustin was booed at the qualification event by a small proportion the audience) the general reaction seems to be quite positive.

Dustin would probably have one of the highest name recognitions of any 'personality' in Ireland. He's been on kids TV since the early 90s; has had a few hit singles; and has run a few joke campaigns for President - indeed, he probably gets more write-in votes than anyone else on a regular basis.

[Јas]

Some more from that SBP/RedC poll...

Attitudes towards Bertie Ahern and the Mahon Tribunal

I don’t believe the account Bertie Ahern has given the Mahon Tribunal about his finances:
Agree: 53% (down 1%)
Disagree: 28% (down 1%)
Neither: 19% (up 2%)

I don’t trust Bertie Ahern to run the country after hearing his version of events at the tribunal:
Agree: 50% (up 4%)
Disagree: 39% (down 4%)
Neither: 11% (no change)

Bertie Ahern should resign as Taoiseach if he is to found to have lied to the tribunal:
Agree: 69% (up 3%)
Disagree: 24% (down 3%)
Neither: 7% (no change)

The tribunal shouldn’t be investigating Bertie Ahern’s private finances and should leave him alone:
Agree: 38% (down 1%)
Disagree: 56% (up 1%)
Neither: 6% (no change)

Lisbon Treaty

In 2008, Ireland will hold a referendum to ratify the European Union Reform Treaty. If there were a referendum tomorrow, would you vote for Ireland to sign up to the Reform Treaty or not?
Yes: 46% (up 1%)
No: 23% (down 2%)
Don’t know: 31% (up 1%)