Ireland General Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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*preparing to go into "I told you so" mode.*

[Јas]

The proposed amendment to the Constitution that would allow ratification of the Lisbon Treaty has been published and I've reproduced it below. I am considerably less than pleased with the  drafting style. (The style of legalese is completely out of place in the context of the remainder of the Constitution.)

They've went out of their way to make quite clear that the Treaty doesn't represent a threat to Irish neutrality, which should help the Aye campaign take the high ground against the most traditional of anti-European arguments here.

The below is proposed to be tacked on to Article 29 of the Constitution:

10° The State may ratify the Treaty of Lisbon amending the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty establishing the European Community, signed at Lisbon on the 13th day of December 2007, and may be a member of the European Union established by virtue of that Treaty.

11° No provision of this Constitution invalidates laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by the State that are necessitated by the obligations of membership of the European Union referred to in subsection 10° of this section, or prevents laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by the said European Union or by institutions thereof, or by bodies competent under the treaties referred to in this section, from having the force of law in the State.

12° The State may exercise the options or discretions provided by or under Articles 1.22, 2.64, 2.65, 2.66, 2.67, 2.68 and 2.278 of the Treaty referred to in subsection 10° of this section and Articles 1.18 and 1.20 of Protocol No. 1 annexed to that Treaty, but any such exercise shall be subject to the prior approval of both Houses of the Oireachtas.

13° The State may exercise the option to secure that the Protocol on the position of the United Kingdom and Ireland in respect of the area of freedom, security and justice annexed to the treaty on the European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (formerly known as the Treaty establishing the European Community) shall, in whole or in part, cease to apply to the State, but any such exercise shall be subject to the prior approval of both Houses of the Oireachtas.

14° The State may agree to the decisions, regulations or other acts under—
i Article 1.34(b)(iv),
ii Article 1.56 (in so far as it relates to Article 48.7 of the Treaty referred to in subsection 4° of this section),
iii Article 2.66 (in so far as it relates to the second subparagraph
of Article 65.3 of the Treaty on the Functioning of
the European Union),
iv Article 2.67 (in so far as it relates to subparagraph (d) of
Article 69A.2, the third subparagraph of Article 69B.1 and
paragraphs 1 and 4 of Article 69E of the Treaty on the
Functioning of the European Union),
v Article 2.144(a),
vi Article 2.261 (in so far as it relates to the second subparagraph of Article 270a.2 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union), and
vii Article 2.278 (in so far as it relates to Article 280H of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union),  of the Treaty referred to in subsection 10° of this section, and may also agree to the decision under the second sentence of the second subparagraph of Article 137.2 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (as amended by Article 2.116(a) of the Treaty referred to in the said subsection 10°), but the agreement to any such decision, regulation or act shall be subject to the prior approval of both Houses of the Oireachtas.

15° The State shall not adopt a decision taken by the European Council to establish a common defence pursuant to—
i Article 1.2 of the Treaty referred to in subsection 7° of this section, or
ii Article 1.49 of the Treaty referred to in subsection 10° of this section, where that common defence would include the State.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

About Neutrality I don't have much to add... except to point out that I belong to the type who aren't arsed enough to read legalese. All I will say is if this again becomes the central arguement of the anti-treaty left then the campaign is over before it has begun.

Bloated Self-righteous rhetoric and appeals to morality rarely wins votes in these types of referendums.. especially if the central issue is seen to be the economy.

[Јas]

The citizenship report of Lord Goldsmith has received no coverage over here and I note that in the UK the big focus has been on the suggested introduction of an oath of allegiance for school leavers (not sure how that would work in the North, but anyway).

More interesting to me however was the proposal the removal of the right to vote in Westminster elections from Irish citizens. (A right which is reciprocated under Irish law to British citizens here.) Specifically I'm quite unsure as to the ultimate reasoning behind the decision - it's also a notable decision in that Irish citizens are (IIRC) the largest group of non-British citizens within the UK; and, from a purely political perspective, are surely more likely to vote for Labour than their rivals.

Anyway, I just think it's interesting is all...

[Јas]

Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona daoibh!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kill them snakes!!1

[Silent Hunter]

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

[Јas]

Kill them snakes!!1

In many ways, St. Patrick was the Sam L. Jackson of his day.

[Јas]

The cracks are now showing in the government over Ahern's problems with the Mahon Tribunal. Evidence the other week by his former secretary, Gráinne Caruth, has proven to be devastatingly bad for Ahern.

The leader of the Green Party, John Gormley (Min. Environment), and the acting leader of the Progressive Democrats, Mary Harney (Min. Health) have both called on the Taoiseach to make a clarifying statement. Such a statement is quite unlikely to be forthcoming.

The Fianna Fáil parliamentary party still seem to be holding firm behind Ahern (most importantly in this regard, the Tánaiste and Min. for Finance, Brian Cowen - who would rather have Bertie in place for the Lisbon Treaty referendum).

I have my doubts that either the Greens or the PDs are actually willing to walk - but it is a possibility. If wither one of them were to jump, the other would very likely follow and the Government majority would be gone.

Irish Times Breaking News article:
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0327/breaking45.htm

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Watching the fall of Bertie Ahern is just so utterly painful and pointless, just go man so we here no more this.

However No-one really cares as very few people in this country really give too much of a damn about our political class, and that includes at elections and the media, who just pretend to but usually end up rolling over and providing senators.

[/cynic]

[afleitch]

Watching the fall of Bertie Ahern is just so utterly painful and pointless, just go man so we here no more this.

However No-one really cares as very few people in this country really give too much of a damn about our political class, and that includes at elections and the media, who just pretend to but usually end up rolling over and providing senators.

[/cynic]

What are the polls showing?

[Јas]

What are the polls showing?

Latest poll was published yesterday in the Sunday Business Post, RedC the pollster.

	May 07	May 07	Feb 08	Mar 08
	RedC	Election	RedC	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	37	35
Fine Gael	26	27.3	31	30
Labour	11	10.1	10	11
Green	6	4.7	7	8
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	8	9
PD	3	2.7	2	1
Other	7	6.6	5	7

All moves within the margin. FF down 2, to about as low as they've ever been.
A good deal of reaction has been to the PDs being down to but 1%.

According to today's Irish Times, Ahern will make a statement to the Dáil on his finances, which have been by far and away the dominating story of the past month.

[Јas]

Breaking News: Ahern to resign on 6 May

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0402/ahernb.html

[Јas]

Full text of resignation speech

Extracts...

"The decision I am announcing today — like all other decisions that I have taken in a lifetime in politics - is solely motivated by what is best for the people.

I have been reflecting on pursuing this course of action for some time. This is solely a personal decision. I have no doubt that a simplistic analysis will suggest that my decision has been influenced by most recent events at the Tribunal. What I announce today is completely inspired by the desire to refocus the political dynamic in Ireland. Recent developments have not motivated my decision.

For the record I state today that nothing could be further from the truth. I look forward to comprehensively dealing with these matters at the Tribunal and robustly refuting any imputation against me."

...

"Therefore I will not allow issues relating to my own person to dominate the body politic as this would be contrary to the long term interests of the Irish people. I want everyone to understand one truth above all else. Never, in all the time I have served in public life, have I put my personal interest ahead of the public good. I have served this country and the people I have the honour to represent in Dáil Éireann honestly. I have provided more details about my personal finances than any person in public life who has ever held office.

While I will be the first to admit that I have made mistakes in my life and in my career, one mistake I have never made is to enrich myself by misusing the trust of the people. I have never received a corrupt payment and I have never done anything to dishonour any office I have held. I know that some people will feel that some aspects of my finances are unusual. I truly regret if this has caused any confusion or worry in people’s minds. All of these issues arose in a period when my family, personal and professional situations were rapidly changing and I made the best decisions I could in the circumstances in which I found myself. I know in my heart of hearts that I have done no wrong and wronged no-one. I look forward to the completion of the Tribunal’s work and I am confident that when it reports, the Tribunal will find that I have not acted improperly in anyway.

Equally I will not allow issues concerning myself or my finances to divert attention from the important job of government at hand. I believe it is in the best interests of the Government, my Party and most importantly the people of Ireland that I set out the time-frame for my departure from office.

It had always been my intention to review my position as Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil in the aftermath of next summer’s Local and European Elections. But having reflected on the need to ensure that the work of my ministerial colleagues is not distracted from by incessant publicity about the Tribunal, I have decided of my own volition to bring forward the date.

I will complete my duties over the course of the next month and following on from my return from the United States and the State Visit to Ireland by the Prime Minister of Japan; it is my intention to tender my resignation to President McAleese on Tuesday 6th May. On that date, I will also tender my resignation as Úachtarán Fhianna Fáil.

In meantime, I will continue to discharge my duties as Taoiseach to the best of my ability, and to work as hard as I have always done, to secure the continued peace and prosperity of the island of Ireland."

[Silent Hunter]

Who are the likely replacements for Ahern?

[Јas]

Who are the likely replacements for Ahern?

The overwhelming favourite is the current Tánaiste (Deputy PM) and Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly).

If one was to look further then: Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dermot Ahern; Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Micheál Martin; Minister for Transport and the Marine, Noel Dempsey; Minister for Justice, Brian Lenihan; and Minister for Education, Mary Hanifan probably in order of likeliness - though as I say, Cowen is the prohibitive favourite.

[minionofmidas]

"The decision I am announcing today — like all other decisions that I have taken in a lifetime in politics - is solely motivated by what is best for the people.

Ah, but which people, one wonders.

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No, he used that trust to good effect.

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Now that's a pretty word.

[Jens]

Good news.

[Јas]

"The decision I am announcing today — like all other decisions that I have taken in a lifetime in politics - is solely motivated by what is best for the people.

Ah, but which people, one wonders.

Úachtarán Fhianna Fáil.

Now that's a pretty word.

Úachtarán = President
Pronounced: oo-ct-ar-awn ('oo' as in too)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Interesting news. Did Ahern resign because he felt his time was up or did it have to do with the Mahon Tribunal?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Completely Underwhelming annoucement...

More to come tomorrow.

[Јas]

Interesting news. Did Ahern resign because he felt his time was up or did it have to do with the Mahon Tribunal?

The two are strongly related.

It should be said though that the resignation caught everyone off guard. Though a statement was expected, there wasn't any speculation (that I'm aware of) that he was going to resign.

He was always going to resign at some point during this government's lifetime (which could run until 2012) but the continuous problems with the Mahon Tribunal made it so that he was more than likely going to have to go within the next year. The evidence of his former secretary, Gráinne Carruth, the other week was extremely damaging.

In the end though it looks like Bertie jumped before he was going to pushed.

[Јas]

[Јas]

Who are the likely replacements for Ahern?

The overwhelming favourite is the current Tánaiste (Deputy PM) and Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly).

If one was to look further then: Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dermot Ahern; Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Micheál Martin; Minister for Transport and the Marine, Noel Dempsey; Minister for Justice, Brian Lenihan; and Minister for Education, Mary Hanifan probably in order of likeliness - though as I say, Cowen is the prohibitive favourite.

FTR, both Martin and Lenihan have already ruled out running.
Nobody has yet officially declared, but Cowen is being touted as having it in the bag.

Speculation is on who he will pick as Tánaiste and as the new Minister for Finance - in both cases the same names listed above are to be considered. The Pheonix (Irish version of Private Eye) has been reporting for some months now that Lenihan has made a deal with Cowen to back him for the leadership, so long as he is set up to be next in line.

The leadership issue should be dealt with fairly quickly. The FF leadership will meet today to decide on the rules; it's likely (contest or no contest) that a new leader will be decided upon within days. (Ahern was elected party leader only 2 days after Albert Reynolds resigned back in 1994.) Whatever rules are decided, the leadership will be voted upon only by the 77 Fianna Fáil's TDs.

[Јas]

The Government has published the white paper on the EU Reform Treaty.
It emerged yesterday that 12 June is the likely date for the referendum.