Ireland General Discussion

[Tender Branson]

The Government has published the white paper on the EU Reform Treaty.
It emerged yesterday that 12 June is the likely date for the referendum.

Are the Irish polls still indicating a 2:1 vote in favor of the treaty ?

Our parliament will ratify it next Tuesday.

[Јas]

The Government has published the white paper on the EU Reform Treaty.
It emerged yesterday that 12 June is the likely date for the referendum.

Are the Irish polls still indicating a 2:1 vote in favor of the treaty ?

AFAIK, there hasn't been a poll on it since in over 4 weeks, when it was, as you describe, about 2-1 in favour - but with high numbers of undecideds (30-35%, IIRC).

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Cowen Set to be Nominated Wednesday

By Andras Gergely

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Deputies of Ireland's governing Fianna Fail party are expected to select Finance Minister Brian Cowen next Wednesday to succeed Prime Minister Bertie Ahern when he steps down in May.

Cowen has long been seen as the most likely next leader of the party that has governed Ireland for 11 years, and on Thursday received the backing of his fellow Fianna Fail cabinet members, including those seen as potential candidates.

Cowen, 48, is regarded a safe pair of hands to guide the economy through a period of sharply slowing growth after a decade of spectacular development, and ministers said they trust him to represent Ireland on the international stage.

Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern said he would not run for the job and would support Cowen, a former foreign minister himself, though he thought it unfair that Bertie Ahern had named Cowen as his preferred successor.

"I don't often criticise the Taoiseach (prime minister) but I do believe it shouldn't be for an outgoing Taoiseach to in effect put his hand on somebody," Dermot Ahern said.

If elected by fellow deputies, Cowen's most pressing task will be to secure a "yes" vote in a referendum expected on June 12, when Irish voters will determine the fate of the European Union's reform treaty.

EU Affairs Minister Dick Roche also pointed to Cowen's experience in running EU summits and his role in the Northern Ireland peace process, seen as Ahern's most lasting legacy.

Continued

[Јas]

All of the potential contenders I outlined earlier declared that they wouldn't run at various points throughout the day yesterday. Officially, nominations close on Saturday afternoon - and only Cowen is expected to be nominated.

If though something very surprising were to happen, there would now be one more vote up for grabs. Last night, Beverley Flynn (Mayo) was re-admitted to the Fianna Fáil party (and will be officially re-admitted to the parliamentary party on Tuesday next) on the motion of the Taoiseach. As she had been supporting the government anyway, it doesn't change any dynamics in the Dáil, which is now comprised as follows:

Fianna Fáil: 78 (+1)
Fine Gael: 51
Labour: 20
Greens: 6
Sinn Féin: 4
Progressive Democrats: 2
Independents: 4 (-1)
Ceann Comhairle: 1

Govt majority: 13 (unchanged)

[Tender Branson]

The Government has published the white paper on the EU Reform Treaty.
It emerged yesterday that 12 June is the likely date for the referendum.

Are the Irish polls still indicating a 2:1 vote in favor of the treaty ?

AFAIK, there hasn't been a poll on it since in over 4 weeks, when it was, as you describe, about 2-1 in favour - but with high numbers of undecideds (30-35%, IIRC).

Interesting: 2 new polls by Gallup and OGM show that 2/3 of Austrians want a referendum on the Treaty. If a referendum was held, 60% would vote against the Treaty.

Nonetheless, the EU is seen very polarized these days: 44% say the Union "is a good thing", 47% disagree.

But just 29% are in favor of a EU-withdrawal, 61% want to stay in.

[Silent Hunter]

Cowen confirmed:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7331731.stm

What's he like?

[Јas]

Another poll published in today's Sunday Business Post by RedC.
Carried out Thursday; MoE 4%.

	May 07	May 07	Mar 08	Apr 08
	RedC	Election	RedC	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	35	40
Fine Gael	26	27.3	30	28
Labour	11	10.1	11	11
Green	6	4.7	8	9
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	9	6
PD	3	2.7	1	1
Other	7	6.6	7	6

Preference for Taoiseach:
Cowen 63%
Kenny 24%

Quite the bounce for FF. Ahern's resignation has received a lot of positive coverage with praise for his decision to leave rather than hang on.

Also notable that apparantly 28% support Fine Gael, but only 24% expressed preference for Enda Kenny (FG leader) as Taoiseach.

Cowen confirmed:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7331731.stm

What's he like?

Fianna Fáil through and through, very popular within the party and the grassroots; but a relatively low profile with the general public. Certainly not possessing the same 'man of the people image' Ahern had.

Fairly cautious about coalition partners, famously declaring years ago about the PDs "if in doubt, leave them out". Has extensive ministerial experience including Health (which he dubbed "Angola"); Foreign Affairs; and Finance. Little or no radicalism in any of those offices, hard to know what exactly his personal political views are. From Offally, in the midlands; likely to resonate much better with rural Ireland than with Dublin.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So basically a mildly conservative dud?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So basically a mildly conservative dud?

Basically a typical Small town right-of-centre conservative yet pork friendly politico. Former Lawyer. First leader of Fianna Fail however since Haughey not to owe his career to him.

To my knowledge most of his votes come from one area of his constituency, Tullamore-Clara and North Offaly. But of those he gets some insane percentage and is so one of the safest seats in the country in one of the areas traditionally strong for FF. Certainly when I was living in his constituency last year you would forget he ever existed and was a local TD.

Seriously it still amazes anyone out there is shocked that Ahern was corrupt. Don't people out there anything about Fianna Fail operates in North Dublin? The idea that Tammany Hall St Luke's, Ahern's own political headquarters was a centre of political probity and high ethics is so laughable..

[Јas]

So basically a mildly conservative dud?

Mildly conservative, yes probably. Populist leaning, pragmatic rather than ideological. All of which I think resonates well with FF grassroots.

I'll wait and see on the 'dud' angle.

Seriously it still amazes anyone out there is shocked that Ahern was corrupt.

Well, until the first revelations emegred in winter '06, I don't think there was really any real suggestion out there that that was the case.

I'd also say that unless and until evidence emerges that any official decision he made or influenced may have been linked to one of the payments, then the majority of the country would be very slow to actually label Ahern 'corrupt'. I'd probably include myself in that bracket (even though I think his actions were categorically wrong and that resignation was appropriate for quite some time now).

Don't people out there anything about Fianna Fail operates in North Dublin?

I think not. Most people have been very surprised by the goings-on at St. Luke's. Certainly FF have never had any visage of being whiter-than-white, but the evidence presented has changed perceptions immensely.

[Јas]

Former President Dr. Patrick Hillery has died.

Irish Times Breaking News Article:
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0412/breaking23.htm

Hillery served 2 terms as Irish President (1976-90) as well as as European Commissioner and numerous offices in the cabinet including External Affairs (now Foreign Affairs). It was during his time as Minister for External Affairs that his more memorable actions occured such as the speech to the UN in New York calling for UN peacekeepers in Northern ireland following Bloody Sunday in 1972; the speech to the 1971 Fianna Fáil Ard Fheis (Conference) shouting down the supporters of Kevin Boland following the Arms Trial; the negotiation of Ireland's membership of the EEC.

As President, he served two full terms, both unopposed. The most significant event of his Presidency was his decision to grant a dissolution of the Dáil in January 1982 to then Taoiseach Garret Fitzgerald, following the loss of the vote on the Budget. It wasn't the decision itself which was controversial, but that senior Fianna Fáil figures (including Haughey and Lenihan) privately asked Hillery to refuse the dissolution but later denied that this happened in the run up to the 1990 Presidential election. The denial which was shown to be evidently false ended the policital career of the 1990 FF Presidential candidate Brian Lenihan and almost caused the fall of the Haughey government.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

RIP.

Deserves an historical allocade for that Boland speech.

[Kevinstat]

What are the odds of a new Dial election being held in 2008 now that there will be a new Taoiseach?  In 2009?  When will the likely public desire not to have an election so soon after the last one give in to a desire to have their Taoiseach go before them and seek his own mandate?  (Not that its much of a mandate when neither your party nor the combined existing coalition parties win a majority of seats, but you get my point.)  Jas says that Cowen has (until the announcement of Ahern's impending resignation, at least) had "a relatively low profile with the general public," so perhaps the situation is different from in Great Britain where voters in 2005 likely had a good idea they were going to get Gordon Brown at least for the end of his party's mandate if the voted for Labour and unofficially for Tony Blair (and that fact may have helped Labour at that time).  But Jas and the horseowning Protestant (are you really a Protestant, and if so are you ancestrally Protestant along some line or did you convert to Protestantism - you must still be a small percentage of the "southern" Irish population, and you don't live in Ulster like Jas, although those counties may not be any more Protestant than the rest of the Republic on average) could better speculate on when a new election is likely. 

[Kevinstat]

RIP.

Deserves an historical allocade for that Boland speech.

Do you have any links which describe the speech and the historical context?

[Јas]

What are the odds of a new Dial election being held in 2008 now that there will be a new Taoiseach?

Slim. There's little or no expectation of an election; only Fine Gael are officially calling for one - and I'm not sure they really want one anyway.

In 2009?

Unless events precipiate one, I don't expect their to be an election until nearer the end of a full Dáil term, i.e. 2011/12.

When will the likely public desire not to have an election so soon after the last one give in to a desire to have their Taoiseach go before them and seek his own mandate?  (Not that its much of a mandate when neither your party nor the combined existing coalition parties win a majority of seats, but you get my point.)

If the people want an election, it would be because of actual issues rather than the feeling that Cowen hasn't got a proper mandate. Nor do I think that argument can really be taken seriously by politicians - the Rainbow Coalition (FG-Lab-DL) took over in December 94 from an FF-Lab coalition without an election; Reynolds succeeded Haughey as Taoiseach in 1992 without an election; Haughey took over from Lynch as Taoiseach in 1979 without an election, etc. etc.

But Jas and the horseowning Protestant (are you really a Protestant, and if so are you ancestrally Protestant along some line or did you convert to Protestantism - you must still be a small percentage of the "southern" Irish population, and you don't live in Ulster like Jas, although those counties may not be any more Protestant than the rest of the Republic on average) could better speculate on when a new election is likely. 

Gully (The Protestant with a Horse - though I don't know whether he actually has a horse!) is from south Dublin and IIRC his family can trace their roots back quite a bit.

For the 3 Ulster counties, the Protestant population is at about 8-9% - split about 60-40 between Church of Ireland and Presbyterians . (IIRC, Monaghan actually has the lowest number of Methodists in Ireland - and, off the point, the lowest number of Jews, but the highest proportion of Presbyterians.)

For most of the rest of the country it's more like 2-3%, Dublin slightly higher at around 4%. The great majority of Protestants in the rest of the country are CoI.

[Јas]

RIP.

Deserves an historical allocade for that Boland speech.

Do you have any links which describe the speech and the historical context?

The speech was made at the 1971 Fianna Fáil Ard Fheis (party conference) in the immediate aftermath of the Arms Crisis.

A short clip of the speech forms part of the reviews of his political contribution in a couple of the audio & visual links are at the bottom of this page.

[Silent Hunter]

RIP.

[Јas]

Green Party leader and Minister for the Enivronment, John Gormley has lifted his national profile considerably with his speech to the Green Party Conference on Saturday night, making just about all of the front pages.

He included in his speech criticism of China's treatment of Tibet saying:
"Respect for human rights must extend to all cultures and countries. One country which has been ex- ploited and suppressed and suffered for far too long is Tibet..."

The Chinese Ambassador was at the Conference, at the invite of the Greens, and was aware that criticism was going to be made. He, and two aides, walked out of the Conference when the offending remarks were made and proceeded to make a veiled threat to Irish economic links with China.

Irish Times Article:
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0414/1208115797466.html

[Јas]

The new leader of the sinking ship that is the Progressive Democrats has been announced. Ciarán Cannon won a very close the leadership vote 51-49 against former TD (and daughter of the party's founder) Fiona O'Malley.

The PDs operate an electoral college systmen in deciding leadership, 40% to the parliamentary party; 30% to local councillors and the national Executive; 30% to the general membership. It seems that the parliamentary party split evenly, Noel Grealish backing Cannon and Mary Harney backing O'Malley. The local councillors are believed to have strongly favoured Cannon - not very surprising given the abnormal numbers of PD councillors in Cannon's home county of Galway. Given this, then the party membership itself must have strongly favoured O'Malley.

Cannon has almost precisely no chance of becoming a TD after the next election, at least not in his current constituency of Galway East. Cannon has already eyed the Local Elections next year as key in determining hte future of the party.

Irish Times Piece
RTÉ Report

[minionofmidas]

They should just have waited until only one member was left, then they needn't have bothered with holding a contest.

[Јas]

They should just have waited until only one member was left, then they needn't have bothered with holding a contest.

They pretty much had that problem already. They had to change the rules when it became clear that neither of the 2 TDs wanted the job. Cannon is (*I think*) the first Senator to be the leader of a political party here.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't own a horse. Sadly, it is one of things in life if I find time, resources and a way to peel myself off the forum I would try and learn to at least ride one.

My family can be traced back quite a bit. Though I am technically the product of a 'mixed' marriage. Even as late as 1985 (when my parents wed) they had trouble finding a priest to do the service as many would refuse unless they both signed the Ne Temere Decree.. which they didn't, for which I'm grateful. My Grandfather (on my father's side o/c) was a rare thing, an Irish working class Presbyterian, whose family can be traced back a bit to Co.Down and then migrated south (which was unusual). My Grandmother was born in Belfast and is CoI. Usually we put CoI or No Religion down on our census forms. It is believed in our family that we are possibly the descendants of Cromwellian Planters.

Despite this I don't feel any affinity to the "protestant" label.. actually my only real involvement in got me and my family into a bit of trouble with the CoI authorities. Of which I will not tarry.

However I like my username because it is references Anglo-Irish culture (it is a quote from Brendan Behan) and that is something I do feel at least a detached interest. However I am not an aristocrat, rather Upper Middle Class.

[Јas]

Around 10,000 Irish farmers took to Dublin city centre this week during the visit of EU Commission President Barosso. They're protesting the approach Peter Mandelson (EU Trade Commissioner) is taking in the current WTO round, which they say if carried through would elad to the collapse of the Irish farming industry.

The leader of the Irish Farmer's Association, Padraig Walshe, speaking to the energised crowd, made clear that the IFA would come out strongly against the EU Reform Treaty if Mandelson gets his way at WTO talks in Geneva on 20 May.

RTÉ Story

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Farmers always say that.

[Јas]

Farmers always say that.

As in "it's the end of the world as we know it...etc."?
True...but whether they're right or wrong, Irish farmers have been having an increasingly tough time of it in Celtic Tiger Ireland and as is natural they're on the lookout for someone or something to blame. They still carry a reasonable electoral stick with which to put a bit of fear into the pro-Reform Treaty campaign.