Ireland General Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Farmers always say that.

And Irish farmers especially.

Basically its a plea for more subisidies. Its just a pity that trade unions in Ireland have nowhere near as far sighted or as 'group interested' a leadership than the IFA does.

[Јas]

Apparantly a poll will be published in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post by RedC.

	May 07	May 07	6 Apr 08	28 Apr 08
	RedC	Election	RedC	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	40	38
Fine Gael	26	27.3	28	29
Labour	11	10.1	11	10
Green	6	4.7	9	8
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	6	7
PD	3	2.7	1	2
Other	7	6.6	6	6

FF coming down slightly from the 'Cowen bounce', btu outside that all movement of plus or minus 1.

The bigger story is that they've also polled on the Lisbon Treaty voting intentions.
Yes: 35
No: 31
DK: 34

A massive jump for the no campaign. Obviously if these numbers are genuinely reflective of opinions, it's anyone's game.

[Јas]

FTR, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is currently addressing the Joint Houses of Congress, viewable on RTÉ Online here.

[Јas]

Later today, Ahern will submit his resignation as Taoiseach to the President at Áras an Uachtaráin, following his last official engagement today (the opening of a new Battle of the Boyne centre together with Ian Paisley) ending his 11 year premiership.

Tomorrow, Brian Cowen will be elected Taoiseach by the Dáil and will announce his new cabinet. Lots of speculation about who will go where, but it seems nobody has any idea how big or small the changes will be.

[Јas]

Cowen has been elected Taoiseach by the Dáil (88-76) and is on his way to Áras an Uachtaráin to collect the seal of office from the President.

Cabinet changes should be announced shortly.

[Јas]

New Cabinet:

Taoiseach: Brian Cowen (FF)
Tánaiste: Mary Coughlan (FF)

Agriculture, Fisheries & Food: Brendan Smith (FF) [was Minister of State for Children]
Arts, Sport & Tourism: Martin Cullen (FF) [was Minister for Social & Family Affairs]
Communications, Energy & Natural Resources: Eamon Ryan (Green)
Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs:  Éamon Ó Cuív (FF)
Defence: Willie O'Dea (FF)
Education & Science: Batt O'Keefe (FF) [was Minister of State for Housing & Urban Renewal]
Enterprise, Trade & Employment: Mary Coughlan (FF) [was Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries & Food]
Environment, Heritage & Local Government: John Gormley (Green)
Finance: Brian Lenihan (FF) [was Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform]
Foreign Affairs: Micheál Martin (FF) [was Minister for Enterprise, Trade & Employment]
Health & Children: Mary Harney (PD)
Justice, Equality and Law Reform: Dermot Ahern (FF) [was Minister for Foreign Affairs] 
Social & Family Affairs: Mary Hanafin (FF) [was Minister for Education & Science]
Transport & the Marine: Noel Dempsey (FF)


So, apart from Bertie Ahern, the only other person who won't be at the cabinet table will be Séamus Brennan [was Minister for Arts, Sport & Tourism] who last night effectively retired from the cabinet, officially for "health reasons". It had been widely speculated that he would be gone anyway.

An interesting reshuffle. Mary Coughlan becomes Tánaiste (Deputy PM) and mvoes to a higher tier ministry (from Agriculture to Enterprise). Brian Lenihan moves from Justice to Finance, after only 1 year in the cabinet.

Micheál Martin bumps Dermot Ahern from Foreign Affairs in the middle of the Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign. Dermot Ahern goes to Justice - obviously a downward move but certainly not an insignificant department.  Mary Hanafin gets what I would've thought would be a demotion from Education to Social Affairs - her star would seem to be waning.

No changing the Greens or Mary Harney - no big surprises there.

The two new faces to the above list are:
Brendan Smith (FF-Cavan/Monaghan), the new Agriculture Minister. Was Minister of State (i.e. a junior minister) for Children - the so-called "super-junior" ministry , as it gets a seat at cabinet.
Batt O'Keefe (FF-Cork NW) was a junior minister in Environment.

[Јas]

The more important junior ministries were decided last night:

Chief Whip: Pat Carey (FF) [was MoS for Drugs Strategy and Community Affairs]
Minister of State for Children and Youth Affairs: Barry Andrews (FF)
Minister of State for European Affairs: Dick Roche (FF)
Minister of State for Food & Horticulture: Trevor Sargent (Green)

Tom Kitt gone as Chief Whip. Surprising fall there.
Barry Andrews gets the other MoS position with a seat (if not a vote) at Cabinet. A rather sizable jump there considering he didn't hold any ministerial position before.
Dick Roche and Trevor Sargent remain in the same jobs as before.

Not sure when the remainder of the MoS positions will be announced.


Geographic considerations have long been seen as important in cabinets and Fine Gael have been trying to make points out of Dublin losing 2 seats at the cabinet table. There seems to be plenty of other Dublin representative saround the table however.


Cowen will have be in Belfast today for the much anticipated US Investment Conference, the last major event of Paisley's term. It will also be his first meeting as Taoiseach with Gordon Brown.

[Јas]

New Lisbon Treaty poll from yesterday's Sunday Business Post:
Conducted 3-7 May
Sample: 1000

Yes: 38 (+3)
No: 28 (-3)
Don't Know: 34 (Unchanged)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I was going to ask how the Irishmen on the Forum would you rate Cowen as Prime Minister thus far. But then again he has only been in office for a couple of days now, so what's the point? But none-the-less, what do you think of Cowen?

May I ask what exactly is the Lisbon Treaty?

[Јas]

I was going to ask how the Irishmen on the Forum would you rate Cowen as Prime Minister thus far. But then again he has only been in office for a couple of days now, so what's the point? But none-the-less, what do you think of Cowen?

Much too early to say, for me anyway. Much has been made by political analysts in recent days of small segments of his first speech as Taoiseach, which the consensus seems to be that Cowen made remarks disparaging Ireland's increasingly individualistic society. I think too much is being made of his remarks and that his premiership will quite probably be more responding to events than setting the direction (not sure if I'm being clear here).

Anyway, as I say, much too early to give a proper judgement. But no doubt I shall offer meandering thoughts as time passes.

May I ask what exactly is the Lisbon Treaty?

And here I risk all sorts of potentially biased remarks...anyway...

It's the latest Treaty which codifies the functioning of the European Union and which all EU member states must ratify (Ithink by 1 January 2009) for it to take effect. Ireland is the only country that will be holding a referendum on it (by virtue of our own Constitutional rules) and so the only member state where there is a significant chance of the Treaty not being ratified. This Treaty is quite controversial among many in Europe because it is very similar to the proposed European Constitution which failed when put to referenda in France and the Netherlands. (Though I don't think that's a particularly pressing concern in the campaign here.)

Lisbon Treaty wiki article.

[Hash]

May I ask what exactly is the Lisbon Treaty?

Sarkozy's alternative to the defeated EU Constitution. The treaty is the constitution all but in name, mostly. And, except for Ireland, only European parliaments need to ratify it, so it will easily pass in most countries.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Here I agree. Cowen is a manager, more of a bureaucrat than Bertie and without the media personality but essentially the same man. I think one of the reasons Bertie resigned when he did was to make sure that the Lisbon Treaty referendum would not become a referendum on him.

[Јas]

New opinion poll by TNSmrbi published in The Irish Times last week.

The headline figures are provided below along with, for comparison, the last poll; the last TNSmrbi poll; the Election result; and the last TNSmrbi poll pre-election.

	May 07	May 07	Jan 08	Apr 08	May 08
	TNSmrbi	Election	TNSmrbi	RedC	TNSmrbi
Fianna Fáil	41	41.6	34	38	42
Fine Gael	27	27.3	31	29	26
Labour	10	10.1	12	10	15
Green	6	4.7	6	8	4
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	8	7	6
PD	2	2.7	3	2	1
Other	7	6.6	6	6	6

Significant changes for pretty much everyone. Sizable jump for FF in the immediate aftermath of the changeover, back to the levels at the election and Fine Gael fall back below those levels. At 15, Labour are pushing the envelope (apparantly really doing well in Dublin). The Greens and PDS, the coalition patrners, both take a hit.

Some other points from the poll...

Nobody knows the PD leader.

Government satisfaction jumped 13 points to 48%.

And finally...Was Ahern right to resign?
Yes 70
No 24
DK 6

[Hash]

Greens low

[Јas]

Figures released today show that Ireland went through it's first quarter of negative economic growth (-1.5% in Q1 2008; following 6% real GDP growth in 2007) since quarterly records began here (*I think* that was in 1997, not certain though). The nosedive has been precipitated by a huge falloff in the  construction industry.

The Celtic Tiger has gone the way of the Norwegian Blue...

[Јas]

To follow-up on the grim economic news, the ISEQ (Irish Stock Exchange) index fell below 5,000 today for the first time since 2003. (The index peaked at 10,041 in February last year.) The collapse has been led by the falling off in the stocks of Irish banks (despite no real exposure to sub-prime) and construction related stocks - which combined dominate the exchange.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Jas, do you have any knowledge on levels of migration so far this year? Just curious, I'm a bit behind the times here in Aberdeen.

[Јas]

Jas, do you have any knowledge on levels of migration so far this year?

'Fraid not...but then I don't think anyone else has hard numbers either. The CSO don't have any stats on this year. (They usually release those sorts of numbers in December.)

The CSO did though, just a few days ago, release a rather interesting report on non-nationals in Ireland based on Census 2006 figures (which revealed, inter alia, that Co. Monaghan has the highest proportion of Lithuanians [3%] and Latvians [1%] of any county) which breaks down details (location; housing; age; economic status...) of the top 10 immigrant groups into Ireland (British; Polish; Lithuanian; Nigerian; Latvian; American; Chinese; German; Filipino; French).

[Јas]

The Common Travel Area which was agreed by the Irish and British Governments in the 1920s is set to take a dent. Proof of identity will now be required when travelling to Britain (which leads to a wonderfully ironic situation where people will be producing passports to prove they don't need to produce their passports), primarily for reasons of illegal immigration.

It is because of the CTA that Ireland hasn't joined Schengen and today's news isn't enough to tip the balance, yet. But it's certainly heading in that direction.

- The Irish Times
- The Times

[Јas]

Joe Behan T.D. has resigned from Fianna Fáil. The Wicklow TD is leaving the party over the most controversial measure announced in the specially brought forward budget last week - that of ending the universal right of over 70s to free health care, in favour of the introduction of means-testing.

The budget was widely seen as the toughest budget in Ireland in 20 years, introducing an income levy of 1% on all income up to €100,000 and 2% above that; increasing VAT by half a percentage point to 21¹/₂%; increasing capital gains tax by 2 points to 22%; increasing tax on interest from bank deposits 3 points to 26%; introducing a €200 annual charge on second homes; increasing health service fees and reducing certain parts of child benefits; significant cutbacks in capital expenditure; etc....
And still coming in at an expected deficit of around 6¹/₂%, far beyond the 3% Growth and Stability Pact requirements.

Nonetheless it is the medical card (which conveys the right to free healthcare) issue with over 70s that has taken the spotlight. Despite efforts to soften and roll back slightly on it, nothing short of a u-turn seems likely to mollify the objectors.

Mr Behan was elected quite comfortably last year in Wicklow and there's little reason to believe his seat would be in serious trouble. Behan is a first time TD hand has shown no signs of disloyalty up to now.

FF backbenchers, the Greens and the Independents supporting the government are all on edge with this issue and Behan's resignation doesn't help.

Anyway, new state of play in Dáil Éireann:

Fianna Fáil	76	(-1)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	20
Green	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	5	(+1)
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacancy	1

Government = Fianna Fáil (76) + Greens (6) + PDs (2) + Indies (3) = 87 (-1)
Majority = 10 (-1)

- Irish Times article on Behan resignation

[Јas]

Last night, the Taoiseach indicated a willingness to restructure the scheme, but continued to commit the Government to ending the absolute right of over 70s to free health care.

Noel O'Flynn (FF-Cork North Central) has seemingly committed himself to not voting for anything which would remove the universal health care for over 70s.

The Greens look set to tough it out, but the government supporting Independents are in a bind as are quite a few backbench FF TDs who are clearly very uneasy about it.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The whole issue is ridiculous. Clearly if we could only afford free medical cards over  70s at the peak of the Celtic Tiger then it was clearly a non-runner as a idea. But look at the votes it won! Irish politics at its worst....

(Before anyone adds, I don't oppose free medical cards for over 70s, actually I oppose cutting them at all at this stage and would prefer inroads into civil service pay and the scraping of vote-winning financial black holes, most present investment in tourism comes to mind.)

[minionofmidas]

Mr Behan was elected quite comfortably last year in Wicklow and there's little reason to believe his seat would be in serious trouble.

D'you mean, for FF? Or, for Behan?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Mr Behan was elected quite comfortably last year in Wicklow and there's little reason to believe his seat would be in serious trouble.

D'you mean, for FF? Or, for Behan?

I assume Behan. All Irish politics being based around local personalities (and families) and etc.

In saying that as Jas should recall Wicklow is usually quite a difficult constituency to predict. Though I can't imagine this would effect Behan's popularity.

[Јas]

Finian McGrath (Ind-Dublin North Central) has said he'll stop supporting the Government should the measure be passed.

The whole issue is ridiculous. Clearly if we could only afford free medical cards over the 1970s at the peak of the Celtic Tiger then it was clearly a non-runner as a idea. But look at the votes it won! Irish politics at its worst....

I don't think the idea was necessarily a non-runner, but that the current set-up is ridiculous. It's not inconceivable that the current negotiations with the IMO might not yield a solution which allows the medical card to be retained as of right.

(Before anyone adds, I don't oppose free medical cards for over 70s, actually I oppose cutting them at all at this stage and would prefer inroads into civil service pay and the scraping of vote-winning financial black holes, most present investment in tourism comes to mind.)

Well, every Department is taking a 3% cut in their payroll funding this year with further cuts set to be brought in next year. Effectively a recruitment freeze is now in operation.

Not sure I agree with cutting the tourism promotion budget; I'd have to look into the costs and benefits of both Fáilte Ireland and Tourism Ireland.