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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #300 on: October 19, 2008, 06:38:34 AM »

Mr Behan was elected quite comfortably last year in Wicklow and there's little reason to believe his seat would be in serious trouble.
D'you mean, for FF? Or, for Behan?

I meant that his seat as a FF deputy was probably fairly safe. Behan had a strong base in Bray (the largest town in Wicklow) and has been FF's top dog there for about a decade now.

Right now the seat would be up in the air. Wicklow has no problem returning FF-leaning Independents, but FF will usually be favoured to take 2 seats in Wicklow.

I assume Behan. All Irish politics being based around local personalities (and families) and etc.

In saying that as Jas should recall Wicklow is usually quite a difficult constituency to predict. Though I can't imagine this would effect Behan's popularity.

Quite right, Wicklow is very difficult to predict, at least for me. IIRC it was my worst call for the General last year.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #301 on: October 20, 2008, 05:19:32 PM »

Finian McGrath (Ind-Dublin North Central) has announced that he is ending his support of the Government because of the moves to end universal free medical care for the over 70s.

The move reduces the Government majority from 10 to 8.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #302 on: October 21, 2008, 04:21:27 AM »



The Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, this morning announced that those currently over-70 will keep their right to free medical care and that menas testing will be brought in for new septuagenarians but at higher threasholds. The details of these new threashold levels are yet to be made clear.

The plan for a 1% levy on all income will now also be reviewed to exempt low-earners from the tax.

While embarrassing for the Government, it should stop the bleeding.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #303 on: November 08, 2008, 08:48:02 PM »

Progressive Democrats go the way of the Norwegian Blue

In a widely anticipated decision, the Progressive Democrats have decided to call it a day. At a special meeting of the party membership, the motion to wind-up the party passed, 201-160. The parliamentary party (all 4 of them - 2 members in both the Dáil and the Seanad) agreed unanimously to back this motion earlier in the autumn when it became clear that the 'leadership' provided by Sen. Ciaran Cannon has been completely ineffectual in trying to help resurrect the party from its collapse in the 2007 General Election. The demise of the party became inevitable when Deputy Noel Grealish (PD-Galway West) made it more than clear of his intention to join Fianna Fáil before the next election. He is now a nominal Independent, but his application to join FF can't be far away.

The past few months have seen a number of PD local representatives jump ship to either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. The remaining 20 or so councillors can be expected to do likewise or go independent ahead of next year's local elections.

Mary Harney (PD-Dublin Mid-West) - the former leader (and in many respects still the de facto leader since the General) has indicated that she will not be joining any party. Harney isn't expected to run for re-election. Her position as Minister for Health is certainly more tenuous now than it was previously, but I don't expect her to be removed straight away. I'm not sure but she may well now be the first Independent member of an Irish cabinet. Her tenure in the Department of health has been very rocky. However, in a recently reduced Government, Taoiseach Brian Cowen can't be hasty in removing Harney, as he would have no leverage to maintain her vote; indeed keeping her in place, for some time at least, may be necessary to maintain Grealish's support.

Since their formation in 1985, the PDs have had a rollercoaster ride wielding considerable influence despite their small numbers. They have formed parts of coalition governments from 1989-1992 and from 1997-present. Their pro-enterprise, low-corporation tax message became an accepted position in Irish politics that has effectively been adopted by every other party in national politics. While set up as a party with a liberal outlook on social issues, it's probably fair to say that they were generally quiet on social matters - economics being their driving force. Despite their national vote falling with each election, their seat totals fluctuated considerably - living at the margins of picking up final seats in various constituencies.

Though the death of the party is official today, the man at fault departed last year. Michael McDowell ran party support into the ground and suffered the consequences. He represented a shift from the friendly faced, respected leaderships of O'Malley and Harney to stern law & order conservative. The party found itself constantly within the margin of error of having any support at all and never recovered.

Personally, I think it's unfortunate that the party is going. They added colour and choice and actual ideology to Irish politics which is a dispairingly rare commodity.

- Irish Times on today's special meeting


Progressive Democrat Electoral History
Election -% Vote -Seats
198711.8%14
19895.5%6
19924.7%10
19974.7%4
20024.0%8
20072.7%2

----

New Composition of Dáil Éireann:
Fianna Fáil76
Fine Gael51
Labour20
Green6
Sinn Féin4
Progressive Democrats0(-2)
Independents7(+2)
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)1
Vacancy1(Dublin South)

Government = Fianna Fáil (76) + Greens (6) + Indies (4) = 86
Majority of 8 (unchanged)

----

And as an irrelevant bonus, the new composition of Seanad Éireann:
Fianna Fáil28
Fine Gael14
Labour6
Green2
Progressive Democrats0(-2)
Sinn Féin1
Independents9(+2)
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #304 on: November 12, 2008, 05:38:45 PM »

Dr Jim McDaid (Donegal North East) lost the Fianna Fáil whip tonight following his absention on   a vote relating to the Government decision to reverse its decision to pull out of the plan to introduce a cervical cancer vaccination scheme for young girls due to budgetary constraints.  As a result of refusing to support to Government, he automatically loses the FF whip.

McDaid has a colourful history, and has no reason or need to toe the party line - as he has no significant prospect of a return to a ministerial position, nor is he necessarily likely to run again anyway - but even if he did, he has already proven an ability to get elected without any substantive help from FF and he has a substantial personal power base in Donegal.

However, it seems clear that his disgruntlement relates solely to this issue. While I presume he'll eventually find his way to regaining the whip at some point, it does change the complexion of the Dáil once again and underline just how badly the Budget has went down here, most particularly regarding cuts affecting pensioners, health and education - many of which have had to be dropped or amended significantly in recent weeks.

New Composition of Dáil Éireann:
Fianna Fáil75(-1)
Fine Gael51
Labour20
Green6
Sinn Féin4
Independents8(+1)
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)1
Vacancy1(Dublin South)

Government = Fianna Fáil (75) + Greens (6) + Indies (4) = 85 (-1)
Majority of 6 (-2)
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #305 on: November 13, 2008, 01:01:47 PM »

A few seats (and a bye-election, FFS when are they going to call it) away from a no-confidence vote.

Not that I think the government will fall soon or anything.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #306 on: November 13, 2008, 01:48:14 PM »

A few seats (and a bye-election, FFS when are they going to call it) away from a no-confidence vote.

Not that I think the government will fall soon or anything.

I don't see them calling the by-election anytime soon, there's little incentive to turn a 6 seat majority into a 5 seat one. They also seem for want of a FF candidate. Seamus Brennan's son, Shay seems to be preferred but there's been no movement.

I also don't think the Government will fall soon, but it could well get bumpier. The ongoing assault trial of Mattie McGrath (FF-Tipperary South) could make things interesting if a conviction arises.

Local and European elections next year won't be a picnic for FF or the Greens, and there's every indication that next year's budget will have to be much tougher than this year's - which has so far resulted in the government majority being cut in half.

Though I would forsee both Behan and McDaid supporting the government if necessary to prop it up - a General Election within the next 24 months is, I think now, a distinct possibility.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #307 on: November 14, 2008, 08:18:03 AM »

New polling out today from our most accurate pollster, TNS mrbi, published in today’s Irish Times. The data and the data from a Red C poll published in the Sunday Busines Post a few weeks ago, is reproduced below.

Election -Red C -TNS mrbi
May '0726 Oct14 Nov
Fianna Fáil41.62627
Fine Gael27.33334
Labour10.11514
Green4.764
Sinn Féin6.9108
Progressive Democrats2.72-*
Independents/Others6.6813*

*People declaring PD in the TNS mrbi poll were included under Ind/Other.

These numbers represent the lowest polling figures in Fianna Fáil history. The numbers are at the level of FF’s worst ever general election result – it’s first – in June 1927 when it came second with 26.1% of the vote. Since then FF’s plurality has been absolute in terms of both popular vote and polling data. In a general election, this would be an unmitigated disaster for Fianna Fáil losing something in the order of 20-30 seats to Fine Gael and Labour. FF are down 15 points on where they were in June’s TNS mrbi poll, the biggest single shift they have recorded in their 25 years. According to the pollsters, FF suffered particularly badly in Dublin/Leinster, among the AB group and with farmers.

TNS mrbi: Satisfaction Ratings
SatisfiedDissatsified
Government (FF + G + Inds)18%76%
Brian Cowen (FF)26%61%
Enda Kenny (FG)33%46%
Eamon Gilmore (L)38%31%
John Gormley (G)28%48%
Gerry Adams (SF)33%37%

Only Labour leader, Eamon Gilmore increased his satisfaction rating since June (+3) all others were down either marginally (Kenny -3) or substantially (Gilmore -12, Adams -12, Cowen -21). Satisfaction with the Government is down 28%. Clearly the public have not identified their Barack Obama. Enda Kenny doesn't inspire any more confidence today than he did before (thank goodness). They're simply abandoning FF and not liking the look of then alternatives. Just where this leads...Huh

The reason for the sudden changes these polls reflect can only be related to the state of the economy and the Budget. Not only has the Government's standing within the Dáil been greatly reduced, but similarly it seems within the public at large as well. According to the polling, Cowen is the least popular Taoiseach we've ever had. Quite an achievement given his very recent ascension.
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #308 on: November 14, 2008, 08:22:36 AM »

Smiley
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #309 on: November 17, 2008, 11:06:00 AM »

Data released from the same TNS mrbi poll (per today's Irish Times) as referenced above on support for the Lisbon Treaty:
In favour43%
Against 39%
Don't Know18%

The Government has committed itself to coming up with it's plans regarding the Treaty at the December European Council. I'd expect the psoition to be something akin to a proposal for a second referendum in the latter half of 2009 with some sort of prior EU commitment reaffirming Ireland's sovereignty on taxation matters, neutrality, abortion law and possibly a decision such that each EU state will continue to have a permanent Commissioner.



Also, it looks like MI5 seem to think our leaders are worth listening to for some reason - Irish Independent article.
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afleitch
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« Reply #310 on: November 17, 2008, 02:55:14 PM »

Data released from the same TNS mrbi poll (per today's Irish Times) as referenced above on support for the Lisbon Treaty:
In favour43%
Against 39%
Don't Know18%

The Government has committed itself to coming up with it's plans regarding the Treaty at the December European Council. I'd expect the psoition to be something akin to a proposal for a second referendum in the latter half of 2009 with some sort of prior EU commitment reaffirming Ireland's sovereignty on taxation matters, neutrality, abortion law and possibly a decision such that each EU state will continue to have a permanent Commissioner.



Also, it looks like MI5 seem to think our leaders are worth listening to for some reason - Irish Independent article.

Or on other words, keep voting until they get the answer they want Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #311 on: November 17, 2008, 03:00:01 PM »

They're simply abandoning FF and not liking the look of then alternatives. Just where this leads...Huh

Regrettably, the answer is probably "largely returning to FF as soon as an election is called with a substantial minority staying home". Though Irish politics is so weird that, maybe, that won't happen.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #312 on: November 17, 2008, 03:16:40 PM »

They're simply abandoning FF and not liking the look of then alternatives. Just where this leads...Huh

Regrettably, the answer is probably "largely returning to FF as soon as an election is called with a substantial minority staying home". Though Irish politics is so weird that, maybe, that won't happen.

Congratulations you get A+ in your understanding of Irish Politics.

Of course there probably won't be an election until 2012, so its all immaterial. Also for some weird reason all our major broadloid newspapers all seem to hate Cowen for some reason, while most were (and still are in one particular case) part of the Bertie Ahern cheerleading club.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #313 on: November 17, 2008, 04:08:08 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2008, 04:10:22 PM by Jas »

Data released from the same TNS mrbi poll (per today's Irish Times) as referenced above on support for the Lisbon Treaty:
In favour43%
Against 39%
Don't Know18%

The Government has committed itself to coming up with it's plans regarding the Treaty at the December European Council. I'd expect the psoition to be something akin to a proposal for a second referendum in the latter half of 2009 with some sort of prior EU commitment reaffirming Ireland's sovereignty on taxation matters, neutrality, abortion law and possibly a decision such that each EU state will continue to have a permanent Commissioner.



Also, it looks like MI5 seem to think our leaders are worth listening to for some reason - Irish Independent article.

Or on other words, keep voting until they get the answer they want Smiley

Well...yes and no. There's only so many times you can ask the question. If the Government faced a second no vote (which despite this poll is still, I think, the most likely result at this point) then it's hard to see how they could reasonably put the question a third time.

A second no would probably see Mr Sarkozy calling for our heads and we'd find out who our friends in Europe really are as we're prodded towards the door.
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afleitch
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« Reply #314 on: November 17, 2008, 04:18:02 PM »

A second no would probably see Mr Sarkozy calling for our heads and we'd find out who our friends in Europe really are as we're prodded towards the door.

Well we vote for each other in Eurovision. Does that count?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #315 on: November 17, 2008, 05:01:38 PM »

A second no would probably see Mr Sarkozy calling for our heads and we'd find out who our friends in Europe really are as we're prodded towards the door.

Well we vote for each other in Eurovision. Does that count?

Smiley
I guess we'll see. One would hope that the British would be a natural ally in this regard. Maybe the Scandinavians too.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #316 on: November 17, 2008, 05:02:27 PM »

They're simply abandoning FF and not liking the look of then alternatives. Just where this leads...Huh

Regrettably, the answer is probably "largely returning to FF as soon as an election is called with a substantial minority staying home". Though Irish politics is so weird that, maybe, that won't happen.

It's probably fair to say that it's the most likely answer...but then, you never know.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #317 on: December 03, 2008, 09:46:40 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2008, 05:09:47 PM by Jas »

Partly inspired by my wish to encourage cheese farming Grin...

Irish Economy in Meltdown!!!

Of course, that the global financial crisis is having huge effects everywhere isn't news, and that Ireland has been having a tough time of it of late, isn't surprising either. But the rate at which bad news comes in seems to be accelerating. In the last 24 hours alone:

- News of more and more job losses today. Unemployment has risen to 7.8% (12 year high) accelerating at the fastest rate ever recorded here.

- The Budget for 2009 which the Government brought forward to last month is already a work of fantasy fiction. Estimates for tax receipts for November alone were out by €3.5 billion. The tax shortfall for the year is now at around €7.5 billion.

- The services sector (hugely important to the Irish economy) is contracting rapidly.

- Near border shopping centres in the North (particularly Newry and Derry are experiencing a massive boom in cross-border visitors due to significant price variations - affecting retailers just south of the border particularly badly. The recent ries in VAT here and lowering in VAT in the UK has exacerbated the price differentials.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #318 on: December 04, 2008, 05:28:40 PM »

The Government lost a vote today in the Seanad on a Fine Gael amendment to the Charities Bill (ensuring amateur sporting organisations are not prohibited from applying for charitable status).

The full roll call isn't out yet, but the 2 Green Senators failed to show for the vote that was lost by 1. The Government has a majority of 5 in the Seanad.

It's the first time the Government has lost a vote in the Oireachtas this term. Though ultimately it's of no political significance, other than indicating a potentially lax whipping operation in the Seanad.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #319 on: December 04, 2008, 05:31:09 PM »

The Government lost a vote today in the Seanad on a Fine Gael amendment to the Charities Bill (ensuring amateur sporting organisations are not prohibited from applying for charitable status).
Oh, sexy.
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NOOO! Tell us what we want to hear! Tell us this means the government has fallen and there'll be new elections on Christmas Eve!
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #320 on: December 04, 2008, 05:35:42 PM »

Can someone tell me the practical and ideological differences between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #321 on: December 04, 2008, 05:44:04 PM »

Can someone tell me the practical and ideological differences between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail?
Part one is easy: There aren't any. I'll defer to Jas on the second question - he seems to like (shudders) tasks like that one.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #322 on: December 05, 2008, 01:15:28 PM »

Can someone tell me the practical and ideological differences between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail?
Part one is easy: There aren't any. I'll defer to Jas on the second question - he seems to like (shudders) tasks like that one.

Grin

Can someone tell me the practical and ideological differences between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail?

As briefly as I can:
The most unifying ideological feature of Fianna Fáil is their nationalism - the fervent hope for a united Ireland (brought about by peaceful and consensual means). In terms of social policy, FF is a broad church but generally centrist. Probably more traditionalist, than conservative per se. In economic policy, I would say they're left-of-centre. Pro-Europe for ereasons of pragmatism more than principle. Strongly guidable by their smaller coalition partners (if the small partner knows what they're doing).

Fine Gael are in general Christian Democrats, Tories without much edge. On the national question, FG also favour a united Ireland but are more sympathetic to unionism and Britain. On social policy, they tend to be fairly soft right-of-centre, but have fairly standard law and order type concerns. Economically centrist to right-of-centre. Hamstrung by the fact that they have always been absolutely dependent on Labour (and probably others as well) in order to be able to form a government, which obviously could skew perceptions about the party.

Both of these descriptions are less than canonical. Both parties are liable to shift considerably due to the particular whims of their leader. Both parties have members who don't fit many of the above characterisations. Family nad history still play a major role in party identification, quite probably more than ideology. Anyway...for more thoughts on it I'd refer you to the posts linked here and here (and the posts of Gully which immediately follow both).

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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #323 on: December 05, 2008, 03:10:20 PM »

Any chance the government falls?
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #324 on: December 05, 2008, 03:35:51 PM »


No. Not really.
The Government has been weathered and weakened by the recent budget, but they have very definitely survived. Their long-term survival has taken a serious hit and an election at some point in 2009 can't be ruled out, but short of <insert unforeseen event here/>, the Government doesn't appear to be in any immediate danger.
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