Ireland General Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Any chance the government falls?

No. Not really.
The Government has been weathered and weakened by the recent budget, but they have very definitely survived. Their long-term survival has taken a serious hit and an election at some point in 2009 can't be ruled out, but short of <insert unforeseen event here/>, the Government doesn't appear to be in any immediate danger.

Unless someone talks sanity to John Gormley..

So that's a no then.

[Хahar 🤔]

Could the Greens do what Labour did and switch coalitions?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Could the Greens do what Labour did and switch coalitions?

No for a coalition to form FG-LAB would not just need the Greens, but also SF and some of the independents. Which is unlikely (and a couple of the independents are essentially in government anyway).

[Јas]

Could the Greens do what Labour did and switch coalitions?

No for a coalition to form FG-LAB would not just need the Greens, but also SF and some of the independents. Which is unlikely (and a couple of the independents are essentially in government anyway).

Yeah.
The numbers aren't there. FG + Lab + Green = 77.
50% of the Dáil is 83. I could see them cobbling together some independents, but short of a series of by-election defeats (but given how long FF are putting off the Dublin South by-election, it looks like they'd be all too comfortable carrying vacancies) the only way this coalition would take over is via a general election.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I went down with a not-too-bad but still annoying case of food poisoning over the past week: due (probably) to some dodgy sausages (I'm okay now, but I've hardly eaten in the past three days and any case, it was probably self-induced poisoning because I'm an idiot) so it is no surprise to me what has been found:

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[Јas]

Disaster. Complete and utter disaster.
Goodness knows what the long-term implications for the pig industry is.

I'll have to find out more about the possible health consequences before seeing whether it was negligent/immoral not to have released this information sooner.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Disaster. Complete and utter disaster.
Goodness knows what the long-term implications for the pig industry is.

I'll have to find out more about the possible health consequences before seeing whether it was negligent/immoral not to have released this information sooner.

Yet you have to admit it wasn't particularly surprised. Even if I hadn't poisoned myself the week this came out, I wouldn't have been shocked. I usually eat pork twice a week (If not more).

Furthermore stuff like this always happens when you least want it too, like now. At least this will distract people from the recession story.

[Јas]

Yet you have to admit it wasn't particularly surprised. Even if I hadn't poisoned myself the week this came out, I wouldn't have been shocked. I usually eat pork twice a week (If not more).

Truth be known, I was really shocked.
I thought the agri-industry was passed this. Contaminated feed! It's the same mistakes all over again. There are still countries where Irish beef isn't allowed in because of BSE. This is a half-billion euro a year industry issuing a massive recall because of a significant health concern  - a complete disaster for pig farmers, another kick to rural Ireland.

Furthermore stuff like this always happens when you least want it too, like now. At least this will distract people from the recession story.

I doubt it will distract. It just adds into a feeling of inept government.

The recession stories are overbearing and show no sign of stopping - 40,000 protesting education budget cuts today, the banks deciding not to pass on the interest rate cut despite the Government which recently saved their asses urging them to do so, more job losses no doubt, pensions crisis continues, more worrying statistics and trends, etc. ad nauseum.

All this not too mention the Government will announce this week it's intent to run Lisbon II so that hopefully Europe will stop being pissed at us and so letting the kooks out of whatever shadowy place they reside between these referenda to once again harp on about the EU coming to abort your babies and conscript those who somehow survive into fighting distant hellish wars, while the Government tries to turn an unreadable tome on the procedures of Europe into a document on which no doubt we'll be told our entire economic future depends.

All the while increasing the chances of Enda Kenny getting the top job...

We are not amused.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Aahh.. I mangled my words there. I meant to say it would distract the meeja from the OMG OMG OMG RECESSION OMG story.

Anyway the major reason I'm surprised is because it is Irish farmers we are talking about. Perhaps I'm being harsh, but they don't have good PR men.

Apparently all the farms where this contaminated feed was used were in the South-East.

What an incredible story of ineptitude. And where the hell are the Greens in all this.

[Јas]

Anyway the major reason I'm surprised is because it is Irish farmers we are talking about. Perhaps I'm being harsh, but they don't have good PR men.

Mmmm...Certainly I don't think the IFA have done a fantastic job in recent times. I'm not willing to jump up and down on Irish farmers yet. They never really saw the Celtic Tiger and have been being squeezed year on year. I'm more and more surprised that so many are still able to carry on given the economic pressures they're under.

I'll have to wait and see for more details on the feed angle on this though.

What an incredible story of ineptitude. And where the hell are the Greens in all this.

From RTÉ:
Minister of State for Food Policy Trevor Sargent said the Government had acted swiftly to deal with the situation. Mr Sargent said the affected animal feed had been banned and the pig production units using it had been restricted. He said he would be working with An Bord Bia to ensure that quality pigmeat products - including those organically certified - can be brought back into the market as quickly as possible.

Nothing surprising there. The Greens haven't had any substantial impact on Agriculture yet, despite having Sargent working there. They've been either unwilling or unable to impose their ideology on the government as the PDs had so successfully done for 10 years. Very disappointing.

[Јas]

Lisbon II: Next October -- PA Report

As expected, the Government will be seeking that all member states retain a commissioner as well as assurances regarding abortion, neutrality, taxation and workers' rights.
Given soundings in recent days, this should all be achieveable.

I still think at this point that a second no vote is the most likely outcome, but TPTB have 10 months to get people onside. Watch this space...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

They must be desperate if the only option they can think of is "WE NEEDZ ANOTHER REFERENDUMB!!1111". I'm already preparing for its epochal fail come next Autumn. Especially if the economy stays the way it is (or rather the media going OMG OMG OMG RECESSION OMG) and Cowen maintains his current stellar popularity.

[afleitch]

They must be desperate if the only option they can think of is "WE NEEDZ ANOTHER REFERENDUMB!!1111". I'm already preparing for its epochal fail come next Autumn. Especially if the economy stays the way it is (or rather the media going OMG OMG OMG RECESSION OMG) and Cowen maintains his current stellar popularity.

'Right guys, it's failed a second time. We really need to think of what to do next'

'A third referendum?

'My god you're brilliant'

[Јas]

Strong language from within the Greens on the resignation of the head of the Equality Authority due to enforced budget cuts -- PA Report

[Јas]

Independent TD, Tony Gregory (i-Dublin Central) has died today from cancer. Gregory has been a long standing, very effective independent TD for one of the most socially deprived areas in the country. The Gregory Deal of 1982 secured massive investment for the constituency in return for his propping up the Haughey Government.

- Irish Times report

[Silent Hunter]

Rest In Peace.

[Јas]

The Green Party has lost two Councillors in consecutive days.

Chris O'Leary and Bronwen Maher, councillors in Cork and Dublin respectively (both Dáil candidates in 2007), have resigned the party and will be contesting the upcoming local elections as Independents. Both opposed the Greens entering the coalition and have voiced criticism of various decisions of the party and government since that time. Cllr. O'Leary in particular criticised the Greens' leadership for their "stay-in-Government-at-all-costs" agenda.

In the last local elections in 2004, O'Leary and Maher were 2 of the 18 successful County Council candidates (up from 8 in 1999). The next local elections will be this June.

- The Irish Times

[Јas]

The Oireachtas Library have added a nice feature to the Oireachtas website - constituency profiles.

Based on the 2006 Census figures, the profiles compare (in tabular and graphical form) the constituencies with national averages in a range of areas including age, disability, ethnicity, religion, education, employment, etc.

For anyone interested, the profiles for the constituencies with by-elections this June are here: Dublin Central and Dublin South - which offer up two very different electorates.

[minionofmidas]

The Green Party has lost two Councillors in consecutive days.

Chris O'Leary and Bronwen Maher, councillors in Cork and Dublin respectively (both Dáil candidates in 2007)

Also rans, or nearish misses?

The Oireachtas Library have added a nice feature to the Oireachtas website - constituency profiles.

Doesn't seem to be working, or at least the big constituency in the northeast doesn`t.

[Јas]

The Green Party has lost two Councillors in consecutive days.

Chris O'Leary and Bronwen Maher, councillors in Cork and Dublin respectively (both Dáil candidates in 2007)

Also rans, or nearish misses?

Also rans - though Maher fell far short of potential.
O'Leary was the Greens' only elected representative in Munster.

The Oireachtas Library have added a nice feature to the Oireachtas website - constituency profiles.

Doesn't seem to be working, or at least the big constituency in the northeast doesn`t.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I know it's because the economy has been destroyed but I'm still going to gloat THIRD PLACE!

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0213/1233867935600.html

Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll:
FF: 22% (down 5%)
FG: 32% (down 2%)
Lab: 24% (up 10%)
SF 9% (up 1%)
Greens: 4% (-)
Inds 9% (down 4%)

Proof that perception is reality.

[Јas]

Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona daoibh!

[Јas]

Big shake-up in the junior ministerial ranks today. The number of Junior Government Ministers has been a source of some criticism for a while now, some of the roles being seen as having little real function but granting significant perks to the office holders.

The number of posts was cut from 20 to 15 - with 7 demotions and 2 promotions from the backbenches. The changes all relate to Fianna Fáil members, the Greens' lone Junior Minister (Trevor Sargent [Dublin N] retains Horticulture and Food. There's a definite sense that loyalty and sticking to the party line (something Mr Cowen has been very clear in demanding) was a key factor. John McGuinness (Carlow-Kilkenny) wandered from the party line to outline his rather strongly held opinions on public sector pay and productivity; Jimmy Devins (Sligo-N Leitrim) may have been deemed too even-handed over the decisions relating to cancer care in Sligo;...

In the midst of continuing dire economic doom and gloom, Mr Cowen this evening has clearly isolated a rump of newfound backbenchers. We'll see if that has repercussions later...

[Јas]

Dr. Jimmy Devins and Eamonn Scanlan (both Sligo-Leitrim N) have resigned the Fianna Fáil whip over their opposition to cuts to breast cancer services at Sligo General Hospital.
- Irish Times

I presume they will continue to vote with the Government, but nonetheless it underlines the increasing difficulty of holding together a majority at a time of very sizable cuts to public expenditure, with still much more to come.

New Dáil Composition:

Fianna Fáil	72	(-2)
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	8	(+2)
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	1	(Donegal SW)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

While most of the independents will vote with the government that is pretty much the end of the majority.

I expect an election within the year tbh.