Ireland General Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Another poll... another schadenfreude meter exploding.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0903/1224253745882.html

(Figures in brackets include undecideds)

FF: 17% (16) -3
FG: 34% (26) -2
LAB: 24% (18) +1
SF: 10% (9) +1
GP: 3% (2) nc
IND: 12% (9) +2
UND: - (20) +1

In Dublin:

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Gazooks. I say.

[Хahar 🤔]

So, what are the chances that the Government holds together for the Dáil's full term?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So, what are the chances that the Government holds together for the Dáil's full term?

Difficult to say really. The vote on NAMA (ie. the government bailout to frauds, gangsters and gamblers 'rescue package' for the economy) will be over the Autumn as will the Lisbon Treaty referendum and a cut-heavy budget. Also a by-election (in Donegal South West) is due and many in the rank and file of the Green Party are not precisely pleased right now. Yet it is hard to see the government falling due to any of this. Turkeys won't vote for Christmas, will they?

[Јas]

17%!

[Hash]

17%!

?

[Јas]

17%!

?

It's not that long ago that FF falling into the 20s was
I'm actually surprised FF are still falling. I've no idea where 'rock bottom' is.

Given the STV system and our usage of 3, 4 and 5-seater constituencies, there are certian key threshold levels of support around which the expected returns can vary quite dramatically - especially for FF who have long maintained fairly homogenous levels of support accross thwe country. Falling to 17% is noteworthy in that it would jeopardise FF's chances of holding a single seat in most of the 17 3-seater constituencies; and they couldn't hope for more than one seat in any of the 11 5-seaters (except I presume in the Taoiseach's own constituency).

[Silent Hunter]

So, this government can be called Epic Fáil, then?

[Хahar 🤔]

So, this government can be called Epic Fáil, then?

Has been for over a year.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

17%!

?

Putting this in perspective the lowest FF has ever got at an election since 1932 was 39% in 1992. They have been the largest party at every election since 1932 and only once was this even close (in 1982 II). Now they are third - and fourth in Dublin.

[Хahar 🤔]

A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

Not necessarily. Even with those percentages in first preferences it would still be quite possible that FF would finish second. For two reasons: 1) The lack of Labour organization west of the River Shannon and in other select parts of the country (like West Cork or most of the Midlands) means that that 24% is mostly an urban vote and 2) Election Strategy. Or the problem of how many candidates to run. In 1992 when Labour got their previous best ever result: 19% they actually ended up with less TDs then they should due to their election strategy. In Dublin South (my constituency) they ended up winning enough votes to elect two TDs but only ran one candidate. This problem may will turn up again (or alternatively Labour could run lots of candidates but then run the problem of vote splitting - though this will probably be an even bigger problem for FF on those polls).

[Јas]

A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

Not necessarily. Even with those percentages in first preferences it would still be quite possible that FF would finish second. For two reasons: 1) The lack of Labour organization west of the River Shannon and in other select parts of the country (like West Cork or most of the Midlands) means that that 24% is mostly an urban vote and 2) Election Strategy. Or the problem of how many candidates to run. In 1992 when Labour got their previous best ever result: 19% they actually ended up with less TDs then they should due to their election strategy. In Dublin South (my constituency) they ended up winning enough votes to elect two TDs but only ran one candidate. This problem may will turn up again (or alternatively Labour could run lots of candidates but then run the problem of vote splitting - though this will probably be an even bigger problem for FF on those polls).

I think you're too pessimistic about Labour's chances in this scenario. You're quite right obviously that Labour's problem west of the Shannon is very significant - but in 1992 they still got TDs from Sligo-Leitrim and Clare, and weren't far off in Cavan-Monaghan. At 24% and with FF polling worse than swine flu, I think one could reasonably expect an even better return.

I also think that that Labour will have learned the lesson of 1992. I think that it's the quality of the candidates which will be the significant issue not the actual numbers.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

Not necessarily. Even with those percentages in first preferences it would still be quite possible that FF would finish second. For two reasons: 1) The lack of Labour organization west of the River Shannon and in other select parts of the country (like West Cork or most of the Midlands) means that that 24% is mostly an urban vote and 2) Election Strategy. Or the problem of how many candidates to run. In 1992 when Labour got their previous best ever result: 19% they actually ended up with less TDs then they should due to their election strategy. In Dublin South (my constituency) they ended up winning enough votes to elect two TDs but only ran one candidate. This problem may will turn up again (or alternatively Labour could run lots of candidates but then run the problem of vote splitting - though this will probably be an even bigger problem for FF on those polls).

I think you're too pessimistic about Labour's chances in this scenario. You're quite right obviously that Labour's problem west of the Shannon is very significant - but in 1992 they still got TDs from Sligo-Leitrim and Clare, and weren't far off in Cavan-Monaghan. At 24% and with FF polling worse than swine flu, I think one could reasonably expect an even better return.

I also think that that Labour will have learned the lesson of 1992. I think that it's the quality of the candidates which will be the significant issue not the actual numbers.

I'm not being pessimistic. I'm only saying what might happen - not what I think would happen. Actually if that poll was a result in a General Election then FF might lose alot more (yes, even more) than they should because most of their incumbents would be running against each other for a significantly smaller vote, leading to mass vote splitting (this can have an effect - in 2002 iirc in Dun Laoghaire FG got a quota but ran three candidates and none got elected).

As I'm bored I think I will do a prediction based on that poll.

[Јas]

A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

Not necessarily. Even with those percentages in first preferences it would still be quite possible that FF would finish second. For two reasons: 1) The lack of Labour organization west of the River Shannon and in other select parts of the country (like West Cork or most of the Midlands) means that that 24% is mostly an urban vote and 2) Election Strategy. Or the problem of how many candidates to run. In 1992 when Labour got their previous best ever result: 19% they actually ended up with less TDs then they should due to their election strategy. In Dublin South (my constituency) they ended up winning enough votes to elect two TDs but only ran one candidate. This problem may will turn up again (or alternatively Labour could run lots of candidates but then run the problem of vote splitting - though this will probably be an even bigger problem for FF on those polls).

I think you're too pessimistic about Labour's chances in this scenario. You're quite right obviously that Labour's problem west of the Shannon is very significant - but in 1992 they still got TDs from Sligo-Leitrim and Clare, and weren't far off in Cavan-Monaghan. At 24% and with FF polling worse than swine flu, I think one could reasonably expect an even better return.

I also think that that Labour will have learned the lesson of 1992. I think that it's the quality of the candidates which will be the significant issue not the actual numbers.

I'm not being pessimistic. I'm only saying what might happen - not what I think would happen. Actually if that poll was a result in a General Election then FF might lose alot more (yes, even more) than they should because most of their incumbents would be running against each other for a significantly smaller vote, leading to mass vote splitting (this can have an effect - in 2002 iirc in Dun Laoghaire FG got a quota but ran three candidates and none got elected).

Agreed. Both the presence of too many candidates and their increased transfer toxicity would almost certainly cost them seats.

Did you see the Tubridy-Cowen interview, btw?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

Not necessarily. Even with those percentages in first preferences it would still be quite possible that FF would finish second. For two reasons: 1) The lack of Labour organization west of the River Shannon and in other select parts of the country (like West Cork or most of the Midlands) means that that 24% is mostly an urban vote and 2) Election Strategy. Or the problem of how many candidates to run. In 1992 when Labour got their previous best ever result: 19% they actually ended up with less TDs then they should due to their election strategy. In Dublin South (my constituency) they ended up winning enough votes to elect two TDs but only ran one candidate. This problem may will turn up again (or alternatively Labour could run lots of candidates but then run the problem of vote splitting - though this will probably be an even bigger problem for FF on those polls).

I think you're too pessimistic about Labour's chances in this scenario. You're quite right obviously that Labour's problem west of the Shannon is very significant - but in 1992 they still got TDs from Sligo-Leitrim and Clare, and weren't far off in Cavan-Monaghan. At 24% and with FF polling worse than swine flu, I think one could reasonably expect an even better return.

I also think that that Labour will have learned the lesson of 1992. I think that it's the quality of the candidates which will be the significant issue not the actual numbers.

I'm not being pessimistic. I'm only saying what might happen - not what I think would happen. Actually if that poll was a result in a General Election then FF might lose alot more (yes, even more) than they should because most of their incumbents would be running against each other for a significantly smaller vote, leading to mass vote splitting (this can have an effect - in 2002 iirc in Dun Laoghaire FG got a quota but ran three candidates and none got elected).

Agreed. Both the presence of too many candidates and their increased transfer toxicity would almost certainly cost them seats.

Did you see the Tubridy-Cowen interview, btw?

No I didn't. (Me too lazy sophisicated to watch TV see. ). Anything interesting?

Anyway Dublin - According to poll: Labour 25% FG 24% SF 12% FF 11%. Now anyone who knows anything recognizes that even in Sodom-on-the-Liffey local issues/gombeemism still have some influence and I reckon that there is some form of "Shy Tory" syndrome going on with FF voters denying that they will vote for FF. In saying that, 11% is actually worse than Fine Gael's performance in the Capital in 2002, where they won only three seats, the worst ever. So then:

Dublin South: Currently: 3FG 1FF 1GP. Kitt (FF) is retiring.
                      Prediction: 3FG 1LAB 1FF (Or plausibly, 3FG 2LAB or 2FG 2LAB 1FF)
Vote splitting between two candidates cost Labour a seat here last time but just about over a quota. With their vote doubling - and Dublin South is the sort of constituency imo where the anti-government feeling is likeliest to magnified come election day - Labour could gain two, but vote management may let them down. Fianna Fail don't precisely have a great bench here with no incumbents; but it seems impausible that they would have no seats in a 5 seater (or is it?). Ryan is Gone. Lee & Mitchell (Both FG) are safe. Shatter (FG) may be in danger but he's been around a long time. The drawing of Foxrock and Cabinteely into the constituency - which only makes it even more affulent and upper middle class than before is likely to strongly benefit FG. Perhaps even Labour.

Dun Laoghaire: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB 1GP. It is losing a seat due to the boundary changes.
                         Prediction: 1FG 2LAB 1People Before Profit (aka Socialist Workers Party - a Trot group)
Dun Laoghaire tends to magnify swings and has always had a low FF vote. Even now. The local election has shown that Richard Boyd Barrett (PBP) despite being a slightly drippy student trot has developed a base among the smoked salmon socialists of Monkstown, Dun Laoghaire and down the Coast. Eamonn Gilmore (LAB) is now Labour leader and on 24% a second seat seems to be quite likely, especially given that a) he is only Dublin based TD leading a major party and b) he is clearly the most popular leader right now. FG have one seat though their incumbent Barrett (FG) is retiring. Andrews (FF) and Cuffe (GP) are gone. Hannafin (FF) is probably gone too (*cue uproarious celebrations*) - Fianna Fail had a genuinely awful local elections here, worse than many other places even.

Dublin South East: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1GP
                              Prediction: 2FG 2LAB

The home of the Civil Service, the Business and Media elite, the fashionable shopping districts, what remains of the old Protestant ascendancy - and alot of urban blight in the forgotten inner suburbs has always been a bad place for Fianna Fail relative to the rest of the country. And with their vote collapsing they will probably finish way back in the field. The Green Party are doing terribly right now and their leader Gormley (GP) is probably on his way too. A major question would be what happens to those conservative McDowell voters (an ex-PD minister of Justice and known right-winger)? Probably back to their natural vote in Fine Gael; even rumours are spreading that McDowell himself will run under that banner at the next election. Creighton (FG) is safe. Quinn (Lab) is safe. For an actual prediction of any accuracy one would have to know the candidates (personal vote matters alot here - more so even than other countries imo). But 2FG and 2Lab is the best bet for now - though Sinn Fein might have a chance. Need to run a good candidate and campaign strongly in the Ringsend-Irishtown area (the scene of alot of the aforementioned urban blight).

Dublin South West: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                               Prediction: 2FG 1LAB 1SF

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Dublin Mid West: Currently: 1FF 1LAB 1PD 1GP
                            Prediction: 2FG 1LAB 1SF

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Dublin South Central: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF
                                  Prediction: 1FG 2LAB 1SF 1PBP (Bit of a risky one this)

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Dublin West: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1LAB. Gaining a seat due to boundary changes.
                      Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC.

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Dublin North West: Currently: 2FF 1LAB
                              Prediction: 1FG 1LAB 1SF

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Dublin North Central: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1IND
                                  Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

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Dublin Central: Currently: 2FF 1LAB 1IND
                        Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND

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Dublin North East: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
                            Prediction: 1FG 1LAB 1SF

Dublin North: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1GP
                      Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC (This one is particularly difficult, if the Greens hold on to any, it will be this one).

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Yes, I know I only wrote analysis for the three Dublin South East constituencies, so sue me (I'll get around to it later).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Lenister:

Kildare North: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                      Prediction: 2FG 1LAB 1IND (Catherine Murphy again)

Kildare South: Currently: 2FF 1LAB
                       Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Meath West: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                      Prediction: 1FF 2FG

Meath East: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                     Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Louth: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1SF (Gaining a seat at the next election)
           Prediction: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1SF

Longford-Westmeath: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                                   Prediction: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

Laois-Offaly: Currently: 3FF 2FG
                    Prediction: 2FF 3FG (This is very hard, it surely can't stay status quo but the other options don't see particularly likely. Though if we went on the locals results than status quo is possible albeit with 2 Offaly based FFers as opposed to 2 Laois based FFers. Labour? Surely Not. SF? More likely.)

Carlow-Kilkenny: Currently: 3FF 1FG 1GP
                           Prediction: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1IND-FF (McGuinness)

Wicklow: Currently: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1IND-FF
               Prediction: 2FG 2LAB 1IND-FF

Wexford: Currently: 2FF 2FG 1LAB
               Prediction: 1FF 3FG 1LAB

The problem is in alot of these constituencies is that it is very hard to see who will step into the FF vacuum.

Munster:
Waterford: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                  Prediction: 2FG 1LAB 1SF (If my contacts are to be believed, a hard left protest candidate is also plausible.)

Cork East: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                  Prediction: 2FG 2LAB (at a stab)

Cork North West: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                           Prediction: 1FF 2FG

Cork South West: Currently: 1FF 2FG
                             Prediction: 1FF 2FG
If the tide really goes out here that replace that FF with Labour.

Cork South Central: Currently: 2FF 2FG 1LAB
                                Prediction: 1FF 3FG 1LAB
A hard left protest candidate again is possible. SF perhaps - Or even PBP?

Cork North Central: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                                Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF

Kerry South: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1IND(FF). O'Donoghue (FF) is safe as Ceann Comhairle (speaker) and is so-re-elected.
                     Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Kerry North-Limerick West: Currently (as Kerry North): 1FF 1FG 1SF
                                           Prediction: 1FG 1LAB 1SF

Limerick: Currently (as Limerick West): 2FF 1FG
               Prediction: 1FF 2FG

City of Limerick: Currently (as Limerick East): 2FF 2FG 1LAB. Is losing a seat in the boundary changes.
                         Prediction: 1FF 2FG 1LAB.

Clare: Currently: 2FF 2FG
           Prediction: 1FF 3FG. This is yet another "God, I hope Labour run a decent candidate prospect". There is a slight left-wing vote here.

Tipperary North: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1IND(FG)
                           Prediction: 1FG 1LAB 1IND(FG)

Tipperary South: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                           Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB (or Seamus Healy as an independant again; prospect of a left-wing protest again.)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Connacht-Ulster:

Cavan-Monaghan: Currently: 3FF 1FG 1SF
                              Prediction: 2FF 2FG 1SF (Jas, do you think 1FF 2FG 2SF is possible?)

Donegal South West: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                                   Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF

Donegal North East: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                                 Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF

Sligo-N. Leitrim: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                          Prediction: 2FG 1IND "Hospital Candidate" (This always happens. Actually I suspect alot of FF gene pool will get elected as Independents as "Hospitals/anti-cuts candidates" than I have predicted. Sligo seems especially obvious. SF is a prospect.)

Roscommon-S. Leitrim: Currently: 1FF 2FG
                                     Prediction: 1FF 2FG. Though Independent John Kelly (who got 9.85% last time but has a solid local base in Castlerea) could do something. Possibly another "hospital candidate".

Mayo: Currently: 2FF 3FG
          Prediction: 2FF 3FG. Again hard to see an alternative to the Status Quo despite the awful poll numbers; unless SF make really huge gains.

Galway East: Currently: 2FF 2FG
                      Prediction: 1FF 3FG

Galway West: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB 1PD
                       Prediction: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1IND(PD)

Local ex-PDs doing really well. Must be fears over lower property prices.

[Јas]

My guestimate based on the poll...

	FF	FG	Lab	SF	Grn	Other
Carlow-Kilkenny	1	2	1		1
Cavan-Monaghan	1	2		2
Clare	1	2				1 (Ind - Breen)
Cork E	1	2	1
Cork NC	1	2	1
Cork NW	1	2
Cork SC	1	3	1
Cork SW		2	1
Donegal NE	1	1		1
Donegal SW	1	1		1
Dublin C	1	1	1			1 (Ind - O'Sullivan)
Dublin MW		2	2
Dublin N	1	1	1			1 (Soc)
Dublin NC		1	1			1 (Ind - McGrath)
Dublin NE		1	1	1
Dublin NW	1		1	1
Dublin S	1	3	1
Dublin SC		1	2	1		1 (PBP)
Dublin SE		1	2		1
Dublin SW	1	1	1	1
Dublin W	1	1	1			1 (Soc)
Dún Laoighaire		2	1			1 (PBP)
Galway E	1	2	1
Galway W	1	1	2			1 (Ind - Grealish)
Kerry N		1	1	1
Kerry S	1*	1	1
Kildare N	1	1	1			1 (Ind - Murphy)
Kildare S	1	1	1
Laois-Offaly	2	2				1 (Ind)
Limerick City	1	2	1
Limerick County	1	2
Longford-Westmeath	1	2	1
Louth	1	2	1	1
Mayo	1	4
Meath E	1	1	1
Meath W	1	1		1
Roscommon-Leitrim S	1	2
Sligo-Leitrim N		2		1
Tipperary N		1	1			1 (Ind - Leary)
Tipperary S		1	1			1 (Ind - Healy)
Waterford	1	2	1
Wexford	1	2	2
Wicklow	1	2	2
Total	33	69	38	12	2	12 (2 Soc; 2 PBP; 8 Ind)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You only have three in Dun Laoghaire and have left out the counties beginning with "W" but other than that looks alright.

[Јas]

You only have three in Dun Laoghaire

Special Jas redistricting

and have left out the counties beginning with "W" but other than that looks alright.

I've also decided the country would be better off without these counties.

No, I just decided to post the unfinished table as I had reason to fear that the post was in jeopardy.

Anyway, I found it actually very difficult to make the prediction generally given the unprecedented FF and Lab numbers. Looking at it now, it still looks too generous to FF and not generous enough to Lab.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You only have three in Dun Laoghaire

Special Jas redistricting

and have left out the counties beginning with "W" but other than that looks alright.

I've also decided the country would be better off without these counties.

No, I just decided to post the unfinished table as I had reason to fear that the post was in jeopardy.

Anyway, I found it actually very difficult to make the prediction generally given the unprecedented FF and Lab numbers. Looking at it now, it still looks too generous to FF and not generous enough to Lab.

Yeah I know. Especially given transfers. The problem is in places like Sligo-N.Leitrim or Cork North West FG have 2 seats but no other parties exist except the civil war ones and FG surely can't win all 3?

Actually thinking about I expect alot of FF gene pool to seep away and run as independents. If FF do genuinely that badly we will be left in a 2002 style situation with lots of independents whose entire function is make sure that the cuts - wherever they are - are in other places and not in the village which gave them the quota to protect their hospital/school/secret stash of gold/whatever. If somehow FG-LAB don't make a majority and they just over 50% and perhaps transfers won't be so friendly as in 2007 when they ran as the Alternative government (cf. compare 1969 and 1973 - FG/LAB got more votes in the former than the latter but lost in 1969 and won in 1973 due to transfers) then the country will finally slip towards ungovernable banana republic status [/cynical Dubliner].

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Yet you kept Longford* I question your judgement.

* - Of course Longford does not exist, anyone who says otherwise is part of THEM.

[Јas]

Yeah I know. Especially given transfers. The problem is in places like Sligo-N.Leitrim or Cork North West FG have 2 seats but no other parties exist except the civil war ones and FG surely can't win all 3?

For Sligo-N Leitrim, I think these numbers mean 2 FG shouldn't be a problem with the final seat a FF/SF marginal. MacManus (SF) is a long-term candidate who has continually grown his vote. The 1992 Labour win also comes to mind as indicative of leftish potential. The lack of progress in the Locals stands against them though. FF shouldn't be far away, but both incumbents will presumably split the FF vote and I doubt their stunt at resigning the whip will go down well viz a viz the hospital campaign.

Cork NW is more difficult. There's some evidence of a Labour presence, but it's impossible to really say how they'd do. Of course, who's to say some random independent wouldn't appear? It's a difficult constituency alright.

Actually thinking about I expect alot of FF gene pool to seep away and run as independents. If FF do genuinely that badly we will be left in a 2002 style situation with lots of independents whose entire function is make sure that the cuts - wherever they are - are in other places and not in the village which gave them the quota to protect their hospital/school/secret stash of gold/whatever. If somehow FG-LAB don't make a majority and they just over 50% and perhaps transfers won't be so friendly as in 2007 when they ran as the Alternative government (cf. compare 1969 and 1973 - FG/LAB got more votes in the former than the latter but lost in 1969 and won in 1973 due to transfers) then the country will finally slip towards ungovernable banana republic status [/cynical Dubliner].

Yeah, with the mass move away from FF, a good election for all sorts of Indies should be in the offing.

I don't think there will be any question over the numbers being there for FG/Lab - but it's not inconceivable that there could be difficulties in coming to agreement. If Lab do really well, would they push for a rotating Taoiseach type deal? Are there policies on dealing with the banks at all compatible? Can they agree on where to make massive budget cuts?
Not sure what happens if they can't do a deal...

[k-onmmunist]

I have a question: Is there much of a libertarian movement in Ireland?

[Хahar 🤔]

I have a question: Is there much of a libertarian movement in Ireland?

There isn't much of a "libertarian movement" anywhere, certainly not in Europe. The liberal Progressive Democrats were the closest thing to it, but they disbanded last year.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I have a question: Is there much of a libertarian movement in Ireland?

No. Don't be silly. The PDs can't be seen as libertarian either - they introduced the minimum wage for a start. They are really more of a right-wing liberal party. Libertarianism would do even worse than Trotskyism here; I can't think of any one natural constituency for it (Except Rich Nerds under the age of 30, perhaps?).