Ireland General Discussion

[Democratic Hawk]

Is Labour a natural coalition parter with Fine Gael nowadays?

An old almanac I have (2000) defines Labour as moderate left-of-centre; Fine Gael as moderate centre-left and Fianna Fail as moderate centre-right. Is that still the case?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is Labour a natural coalition parter with Fine Gael nowadays?

An old almanac I have (2000) defines Labour as moderate left-of-centre; Fine Gael as moderate centre-left and Fianna Fail as moderate centre-right. Is that still the case?

No. Really Left-Right don't work very well for Ireland as Irish politics works on a culture of clientalism rather than political programs or ideals as in most European countries, which helps to explain why the economy seems to collapse every 20-25 years or so. Labour are certainly to the left of FF-FG but that is not saying much and are generally more conservative than they were in the 60s and 70s - alot of progressive legislation especially on "social issues" has been due in part to Labour governments (though obviously cultural change is more important in a general sense) these issues though are irrelevant electorally. But may explain in part the  paradox that they have on average in national elections the second the richest support base of all the parties, behind the Greens (as of 2002). FG are a more 'natural' conservative party to FF due to their traditional support base (small town bourgeoise + large landowners) but need Labour for government. FF is just a catch-all party whose ideology is Gombeenism. But this is true of all political parties in part.

[Democratic Hawk]

Is Labour a natural coalition parter with Fine Gael nowadays?

An old almanac I have (2000) defines Labour as moderate left-of-centre; Fine Gael as moderate centre-left and Fianna Fail as moderate centre-right. Is that still the case?

No. Really Left-Right don't work very well for Ireland as Irish politics works on a culture of clientalism rather than political programs or ideals as in most European countries, which helps to explain why the economy seems to collapse every 20-25 years or so. Labour are certainly to the left of FF-FG but that is not saying much and are generally more conservative than they were in the 60s and 70s - alot of progressive legislation especially on "social issues" has been due in part to Labour governments (though obviously cultural change is more important in a general sense) these issues though are irrelevant electorally. But may explain in part the  paradox that they have on average in national elections the second the richest support base of all the parties, behind the Greens (as of 2002). FG are a more 'natural' conservative party to FF due to their traditional support base (small town bourgeoise + large landowners) but need Labour for government. FF is just a catch-all party whose ideology is Gombeenism. But this is true of all political parties in part.

Thanks . Was it you who once defined the difference between FF and FG as basically between sh**t and sh**te?

Most contemporary "left" parties are basically Third Way centrist ; indeed, the mainstream center-right in western Europe are probably less into neoliberalism than the British Labour Party, which is, constitutionally, and only constitutionally,  a "democratic socialist" party - and in so far as 'social democracy' ever existed in the western world it was only ever as a model of capitalism

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No. That was some drunk guy at a pub who I think Lewis quoted.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Won't disagree with that. Just that Labour's position in Irish society is rather strange. Worth noting that Labour's support base is in main places connected to public sector employment (as opposed to manufacturing - what little there is of it - and industry). Despite this I belief most unions, especially the main ones, have been quite content with FF even with the PDs. This though is changing. Labour's voting base at a local level is much more working class in the conventional-British sense though (or rather it wins those votes locally than it doesn't win nationally - this though is a recent phenomena). More than half of Labour TDs are based in Dublin. Outside of Galway City, the party doesn't exist west of the Shannon and other parts of outer bogland (West Cork, The Midlands with the curious exception of Westmeath).

[Хahar 🤔]

I have a question: Is there much of a libertarian movement in Ireland?

No. Don't be silly. The PDs can't be seen as libertarian either - they introduced the minimum wage for a start. They are really more of a right-wing liberal party. Libertarianism would do even worse than Trotskyism here; I can't think of any one natural constituency for it (Except Rich Nerds under the age of 30, perhaps?).

Trotskyism does pretty well in Dublin, doesn't it? Or is that just the electoral system at work?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I have a question: Is there much of a libertarian movement in Ireland?

No. Don't be silly. The PDs can't be seen as libertarian either - they introduced the minimum wage for a start. They are really more of a right-wing liberal party. Libertarianism would do even worse than Trotskyism here; I can't think of any one natural constituency for it (Except Rich Nerds under the age of 30, perhaps?).

Trotskyism does pretty well in Dublin, doesn't it? Or is that just the electoral system at work?

It's doing better. The Socialist Party used to have a seat in the Dail but lost it in the FF vs FG-LAB contest of 2007. But their TD, Joe Higgins, recently got elected (with the help of the vote of yours truly) to the European Parliament. The SP are doing better at a local level especially in Fingal (North County Dublin) where the Left (incl. Labour) have over 50% of the council seats. Very unusual in Ireland. However the SP won't share power with a "capitalist" party like Labour so it's moot. At the next election the SP will certainly get Joe Higgins' seat back at Dublin West (causing him resign as an MEP) due to redistricting. Another seat is possible in Dublin North; but people have said that for the past two elections. Unlikely to see SP gains anywhere else.

The other Trotskyite group - or rather the parliamentary wing of the anti-everything brigade - The People Before Profit Alliance (PBP, otherwise known as the Socialist Workers Party) did really well at the last local elections, and looks almost certain to pick up a Dail seat in Dun Laoghaire at the next election. This is slightly strange because the consistency of Dun Laoghaire has very few 'workers' in it - but smoked salmon socialists abound, though Richard Body Barrett, the person in question, does seem to be a very good community worker. Even if his solutions to problems seem to be taken out of the drunk irasible leftie student handbook. More surprisingly PBP are also doing well in Dublin South Central, where there are certainly lots of workers - albeit from my experience more interested in the horses than in Marx or right on-ery - local elections were very good for them. Another gain is possible.

So that's 4 possible gains for Trots at the next election in Dublin (and possibly one other in Waterford, if my contacts are right). Not that impressive out of a potential 47. But in saying that that is 4 more than Communist Parties in Ireland are used to. Even in Stalinism's heyday the Communist Party of Ireland didn't bother to run candidates in Irish elections. Communism has never a force of any revelance in Irish history - though the IRA have flirted with it in the past (but that was really an anti-British Thing. Want to read something LOLworthy type in "Sean Russell" into wikipedia).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In the news. Tax. Tax. And more Tax.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Apart from wondering how "low-income" will be defined - most of these aren't actually bad measures. Or wouldn't be if the rates themselves weren't going to be so high.

[Хahar 🤔]

Guess who's back!

Yes side guarantees 'meaningless' - Ganley

[Hash]

Guess who's back!

Yes side guarantees 'meaningless' - Ganley

Is he done crying after his epic fail in June?

[Хahar 🤔]

Guess who's back!

Yes side guarantees 'meaningless' - Ganley

Is he done crying after his epic fail in June?

Apparently. Now all we need is Lech Wałęsa.

[Јas]

The Ceann Comhairle is effectively being forced to resign following our very own expenses scandal that has been developing since late summer. John O'Donohgue's expenses as Ceann Comhairle and formerly as Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism - particularly with regard to foreign travel - caused a quite a stir with the public. The recent release of expenses during the last year as CC amidst economic crisis were the final straw as Sinn Féin, Labour and Fine Gael in turn declared that he had lost their confidence.

The only issue outstanding is exactly when O'Donoghue will resign. He has indicated he will resign next week, but SF and FG have both demanded his immediate resignation because they see a not unreasonable prospect of the Government's collapse this weekend - and as things stand the sitting CC at time of dissolution is automatically deemed re-elected at General Elections.

That prospect of Government collapse arises from a Green Party convention which will vote on a new Programme for Government currently being negotiated between the Greens and FF. Green Party leader, John Gormley has said that the Programme must garner the ²/₃ support of delegates for the Greens to remain in Government. Watch this space...

[Kevinstat]

The only issue outstanding is exactly when O'Donoghue will resign. He has indicated he will resign next week, but SF and FG have both demanded his immediate resignation because they see a not unreasonable prospect of the Government's collapse this weekend - and as things stand the sitting CC at time of dissolution is automatically deemed re-elected at General Elections.

Unless the sitting CC doesn't stand for reelection to the Dáil.

Is there any indication that O'Donoghue will retire at the next election (even if the Dáil dissolved soon and while he was still CC and he could have another term (which would seem to be for as long as Fine Gael and Labour can get along) by snapping his fingers)?  Or that he will resign from the Dáil at the same time as he resigns as Ceann Comhairle if that happens before the Dáil dissolves?  Or is this expenses scandal of John O'Donoghue, Ceann Comhairle and formerly John O'Donoughue, Minister of Arts, Sport and Tourism one that would be a comparitively minor blemish on John O'Donoughue, rank and file TD, or of a degree such that he might struggle to get reelected if he were not the outgoing CC but, if he is the Ceann Comhairle at the time of dissolution or until the next election if it isn't imminent, he could remain as a TD without being a Rod Blagojevich (not so much in being impeached and convicted/expelled from the Dáil but in his not resigning creating a scandal in itself)?  Would O'Donoghue want to remain in the Dáil with whatever his future prospects there are?

If O'Donohue resigns (at least as Ceann Comhairle) before the Dáil dissolves, how soon would a new CC be elected?  Any ideas as to whom that might be?  How much would electoral math be a factor in who is elected?

That's a lot of questions I know (I got on a roll), but I'd appreeciate whatever answers or educated guesses you (Jas) or anyone else (like Gully Foyle) could give me.

[Kevinstat]

A Guardian article on the new "Programme for Government" states, "It is understood the Greens have gained concessions on... the reform of the Republic's parliament."  One of the Greens' goals for parliamentary reform was a reduction in the size of the Dáil (the other reform goal mentioned in the article was reforming expenses for parliamentarians).  I'd be interested to hear if a Dáil reduction got into the revised program, the proposed size or range of sizes, how politically feasable such a change really is (I remember someone on this forum saying that due to maximum population per TD requirements in Ireland's constitution (there being minumum pop/TD requirements also), the size of the Dáil would eventually have to increase after each review of constituencies unless Ireland's constitution was amended), when it might go into effect and any complementary changes (like changing the range of Dáil members per constituency, presently 3-5 I know).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A Guardian article on the new "Programme for Government" states, "It is understood the Greens have gained concessions on... the reform of the Republic's parliament."  One of the Greens' goals for parliamentary reform was a reduction in the size of the Dáil (the other reform goal mentioned in the article was reforming expenses for parliamentarians).  I'd be interested to hear if a Dáil reduction got into the revised program, the proposed size or range of sizes, how politically feasable such a change really is (I remember someone on this forum saying that due to maximum population per TD requirements in Ireland's constitution (there being minumum pop/TD requirements also), the size of the Dáil would eventually have to increase after each review of constituencies unless Ireland's constitution was amended), when it might go into effect and any complementary changes (like changing the range of Dáil members per constituency, presently 3-5 I know).

Well FF and FG voting for parliamentary reform would be like Turkeys voting for Christmas, to be oh so cliche, but given the circumstances the Greens could pull it off... and if they did I will automatically apologize for everything bad I have said of them in the past two years (well, almost everything). It would though require a referendum - which in the current climate might just be passed (depends alot on the nature of the reform)

Other questions:

1. the amount of seats in the Dail has hardly changed since (iirc) 1981 so I don't know what you are referring to there. Though the amount of seats is far, far too many for a country our size (166).

2. As this reform is mostly focused on reducing the number of TDs the constituencies would so much change as be abolished and go bigger - which would effectively end the use of counties for constituency drawing purposes, especially in low-density regions like the Midlands and West. This I can see being the biggest point of public opposition. Personally though I think it can't come faster.

EDIT: Just looked at the Rte website; I've been out of the loop recently - but though a program has been agreed there is no mention of TD seat reduction though so far they are being awfully coy about it. However Corporation donations to political parties to be banned is a plus.

[Јas]

The only issue outstanding is exactly when O'Donoghue will resign. He has indicated he will resign next week, but SF and FG have both demanded his immediate resignation because they see a not unreasonable prospect of the Government's collapse this weekend - and as things stand the sitting CC at time of dissolution is automatically deemed re-elected at General Elections.

Unless the sitting CC doesn't stand for reelection to the Dáil.

Is there any indication that O'Donoghue will retire at the next election (even if the Dáil dissolved soon and while he was still CC and he could have another term (which would seem to be for as long as Fine Gael and Labour can get along) by snapping his fingers)?  Or that he will resign from the Dáil at the same time as he resigns as Ceann Comhairle if that happens before the Dáil dissolves?  Or is this expenses scandal of John O'Donoghue, Ceann Comhairle and formerly John O'Donoughue, Minister of Arts, Sport and Tourism one that would be a comparitively minor blemish on John O'Donoughue, rank and file TD, or of a degree such that he might struggle to get reelected if he were not the outgoing CC but, if he is the Ceann Comhairle at the time of dissolution or until the next election if it isn't imminent, he could remain as a TD without being a Rod Blagojevich (not so much in being impeached and convicted/expelled from the Dáil but in his not resigning creating a scandal in itself)?  Would O'Donoghue want to remain in the Dáil with whatever his future prospects there are?

It's widely assumed that O'Donoghue does wish to remain a TD - he's only 53. Whether he would decide to run again even were he to be removed as CC is not clear cut though. My suspicion would be that he would run.

I suspect O'Donoghue's biggest problem on re-election wouldn't be the expenses scandal (indeed I'm not sure how much of a problem it would necessarily be at all), but simply Fianna Fáil's abysmal ratings. In an open 3 seat election in Kerry S, Labour have a real chance of a gain at FF's expense anyway. O'Dongohue used his position as Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism not only to help himself to live the high-life but also to deliver some largesse to his constituency as well. He's not an unpopular figure there. Though the scandal has not gone down well with the general public, I don't have much a read on what the good people of Kerry make of it (well, my housemate happens to be from those parts - but his thoughts are no more representative of Kerry S, as mine are of Cavan-Monaghan ).

Should O'Donoghue be returned, he couldn't reasonably hope to regain the CC position or any Ministerial office in future - but he wouldn't be politically untouchable either. He wouldn't even be the worst offender for financial scandals in the House (Michael Lowry isn't going anywhere after all...).

If O'Donohue resigns (at least as Ceann Comhairle) before the Dáil dissolves, how soon would a new CC be elected?  Any ideas as to whom that might be?  How much would electoral math be a factor in who is elected?

As I understand it, under the standing orders of the Dáil, on a CC vacancy arising, the Leas-Ceann Comhairle (Deputy CC, currently Brendan Howlin [Lab-Wexford]) shall preside until a date is set for the election of a new CC. So there's little definitive there as to timing.

Howlin is though the obvious candidate. He wants the job - and the Government will actually be happy to now give the position to the opposition as it amends the Dáil math in their favour, effectively increasing the Government majority by 2 (adding O'Donoghue to the Govt votes, and removing Howlin from the opposition votes).

[Јas]

A Guardian article on the new "Programme for Government" states, "It is understood the Greens have gained concessions on... the reform of the Republic's parliament."  One of the Greens' goals for parliamentary reform was a reduction in the size of the Dáil (the other reform goal mentioned in the article was reforming expenses for parliamentarians).  I'd be interested to hear if a Dáil reduction got into the revised program, the proposed size or range of sizes, how politically feasable such a change really is (I remember someone on this forum saying that due to maximum population per TD requirements in Ireland's constitution (there being minumum pop/TD requirements also), the size of the Dáil would eventually have to increase after each review of constituencies unless Ireland's constitution was amended), when it might go into effect and any complementary changes (like changing the range of Dáil members per constituency, presently 3-5 I know).

Well, first things first the proposed Renewed Programme for Government can be viewed from the Green's website. (Political reform issues are dealt with from page 32.)

The main points in regard to political reform are proposals to ban corporate donations and for full vouching and publication of expenses. The Programme also proposes the establishment of a new Electoral Commission to examine and make recommendations on possible changes to the electoral system for the Dáil and Seanad, possible 'mid-term' elections, extending the franchise for Presidential elections to Irish abroad, lowering the voting age for local elections.

1. the amount of seats in the Dail has hardly changed since (iirc) 1981 so I don't know what you are referring to there. Though the amount of seats is far, far too many for a country our size (166).

Since 1980, there have been 166 TDs. Though obviously the TD:constituent ratio has changed quite a bit - as indeed has there been a move to increasing the number of 3-seaters over 5-seaters.

I don't necessarily agree that 166 is too many TDs though - but we've had that discussion before.

2. As this reform is mostly focused on reducing the number of TDs the constituencies would so much change as be abolished and go bigger - which would effectively end the use of counties for constituency drawing purposes, especially in low-density regions like the Midlands and West. This I can see being the biggest point of public opposition. Personally though I think it can't come faster.

The Green's apparent preferred system is a move towards the German system. Retaining X number of STV seats, but also some number of seats to reflect overall party support (either via a seperate list vote or something else). Such a thing would almost certainly require a Constitutional amendment - which I doubt would pass.

We'll have to wait and see on electoral reform though, the proposals agreed look like something that could quite easily go nowhere or produce easily ignored recommendations.

[Kevinstat]

As I understand it, under the standing orders of the Dáil, on a CC vacancy arising, the Leas-Ceann Comhairle (Deputy CC, currently Brendan Howlin [Lab-Wexford]) shall preside until a date is set for the election of a new CC. So there's little definitive there as to timing.

Would Howlin be automatically returned if the Dáil were dissolved between O'Donoghue's resignation as CC and the election of a new CC?  That would only likely have come up if O'Donohue had resigned at CC before today's Green Party convention and that convention either failed to accept (by the required 2/3 vote) the motion to remain in Government on the basis of the new program or passed (by the same 2/3 vote) the motion opposing a bailout of some sorts that I'm too lazy to look up now.  If neither happens (or happened) at today's convention, I imagine the Government will survive long enough for a new Ceann Comhairle (possibly the same as the "interim CC" as you say) to be elected.  Although you never know.

[Хahar 🤔]

So, then, what are the cahnces of an election being called in the next week?

[Kevinstat]

A Guardian article on the new "Programme for Government" states, "It is understood the Greens have gained concessions on... the reform of the Republic's parliament."  One of the Greens' goals for parliamentary reform was a reduction in the size of the Dáil (the other reform goal mentioned in the article was reforming expenses for parliamentarians).  I'd be interested to hear if a Dáil reduction got into the revised program, the proposed size or range of sizes, how politically feasable such a change really is (I remember someone on this forum saying that due to maximum population per TD requirements in Ireland's constitution (there being minumum pop/TD requirements also), the size of the Dáil would eventually have to increase after each review of constituencies unless Ireland's constitution was amended), when it might go into effect and any complementary changes (like changing the range of Dáil members per constituency, presently 3-5 I know).

...
Other questions:

1. the amount of seats in the Dail has hardly changed since (iirc) 1981 so I don't know what you are referring to there. Though the amount of seats is far, far too many for a country our size (166).

An interesting dilemna for future commissions will be the constitutional restrictions of TD's representing between 20,000 and 30,000 persons.  When the Dail was set at the current size of 166 TD's in 1980 it was right at the lower limit.   Now, it is at 25,541 per TD; and the constitutional limit is 141 to 211 TD's (the statutory limit was 164 to 168).  But going forward 15 to 20 years the constitutional limit could be reached, and future commissions could find themselves having to add a dozen TD's at a time, and making major changes even if population growth were uniform.

Does that answer your question?

[Kevinstat]

So, then, what are the cahnces of an election being called in the next week?

No more likely now than any other week (which I wouldn't say is nil with the Government's slim majority and its unpopularity, but it definitely dodged the main bullet this past week and today).

From RTÉ News (with [bracketed information] and italics added by me):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Јas]

Would Howlin be automatically returned if the Dáil were dissolved between O'Donoghue's resignation as CC and the election of a new CC?

Not unless he was formally voted in as CC proper.

That would only likely have come up if O'Donohue had resigned at CC before today's Green Party convention and that convention either failed to accept (by the required 2/3 vote) the motion to remain in Government on the basis of the new program or passed (by the same 2/3 vote) the motion opposing a bailout of some sorts that I'm too lazy to look up now.  If neither happens (or happened) at today's convention, I imagine the Government will survive long enough for a new Ceann Comhairle (possibly the same as the "interim CC" as you say) to be elected.  Although you never know.

Yeah, I had thought about this earlier - but I'm without a definitive answer. Had the Greens voted against, it would have depended on how Cowen reacted. He could have went straight to the President before the Dáil resumed and sought a dissolution, which she may or may not have granted. Or he could have tried to wait until a formal vote of no confidence is moved by the Dáil, in which case the opposition would probably get a shot at removing O'Donoghue first.

[Јas]

So, then, what are the cahnces of an election being called in the next week?

Negligible.

[Јas]

Dr. Jim McDaid (FF-Donegal NE) has written to the Chief Whip withdrawing his support for the Government. He resigned the whip late last year due to the decision to scrap the cervical cancer vaccine. He also expressed his wish to see a General Election earlier in the autumn. Following his resignation of thw hip last year he has abstained and absented himself from certain votes, but now he has expressed his willingness to vote against the Government as well.

The current Dáil maths is rather messy and open to interpretation, but IMO is probably now 4.

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	72
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	10
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	1	(Donegal SW)

Government	84	(FF + Green + Harney, Grealish, Healy Rae, Lowry, Devins, Scanlon)
Opposition	80	(FG + Lab + SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, McDaid)
Majority	4

Just to clarify a little on the Independents...
Pro-Government:
Harney and Grealish are the ex-PDs - the party having completed it's long disbandment process in September. Harney remains Minister for Health. No prospect of these two voting against the Government so long as Harney retains that job.
Healy Rae and Lowry are independents who did a deal with Bertie after the 2007 election. Healy Rae is concerned about possible measures that could reduce the allowable alcohol-blood ratio further, but apart from that neither seem likely to bolt.
Devins and Scanlon resigned the FF whip earlier this year in protest of the downgrading of service provisions at Sligo Hospital. Both continue however to vote with the Government.

Anti-Government:
O'Sullivan replaced Tony Gregory in the Dublin Central by-election earlier this year. Votes solidly against the Government. Like Gregory, no deal has been proffered to her.
Behan resigned from FF over the first 2009 budget. Solidly votes against the Government.
McGrath did a deal with Bertie after the election for his support, but backed out over the same budget. Possibly the most buy-able Independent, but still unlikely to change sides again.

Which leaves only McDaid, who is likely to have a much more ambiguous voting record than anyone else. His preference for a new election though means that I'm presuming he'll vote accordingly should it matter.

[Kevinstat]

So, then, what are the cahances of an election being called in the next week before the end of the year?

[Јas]

So, then, what are the cahances of an election being called in the next week before the end of the year?

Well, it's just become a bit more uncertain.

Despite my assertion just the other day, that forecast Noel Grealish as a safe vote with the Government, the Irish Independent reports yesterday that he has written to the Chief Whip and informed him that he wants to strike a deal (á la Healy-Rae and Lowry) in order for the Government to retain his vote. He then proceeded to absent himself from the remaining votes in the Dáil for the week.

On top of this, Wednesday in Budget Day and like last year will see more very significant spending cuts. The public sector will likely see another wage cut, last year it was an average 7.5% cut, this year will probably be another 6.5%. This has been the subject of some controversy, particularly because it appeared that the Government had reached a deal with unions on forced unpaid leave rather than simple pay cuts - but then backed out when, somewhat surprisingly, FF backbenchers strongly urged the Government not to do a deal.

There's also likely to be cuts to unemployment benefit and child benefit as well as further expenditure cuts across all departments.

Given the apparent resolve of the FF backbenchers, and indeed the Greens, the focus will be on the votes of Grealish and Jim McDaid in particular this week.

Personally, I don't see the Government falling over the Budget, and so surviving into next year - but elements of the media also feel that the votes of Devins and Scanlon bear watching. In a scenario where all 4 vote against the Government, then the majority is lost (81-83) and an election would no doubt have to happen in the near future.