Ireland General Discussion

[minionofmidas]

Healy Rae is concerned about possible measures that could reduce the allowable alcohol-blood ratio further.

A personal concern, as it were?

[Јas]

So, then, what are the cahances of an election being called in the next week before the end of the year?

Well, it's just become a bit more uncertain.

Despite my assertion just the other day, that forecast Noel Grealish as a safe vote with the Government, the Irish Independent reports yesterday that he has written to the Chief Whip and informed him that he wants to strike a deal (á la Healy-Rae and Lowry) in order for the Government to retain his vote. He then proceeded to absent himself from the remaining votes in the Dáil for the week.

On top of this, Wednesday in Budget Day and like last year will see more very significant spending cuts. The public sector will likely see another wage cut, last year it was an average 7.5% cut, this year will probably be another 6.5%. This has been the subject of some controversy, particularly because it appeared that the Government had reached a deal with unions on forced unpaid leave rather than simple pay cuts - but then backed out when, somewhat surprisingly, FF backbenchers strongly urged the Government not to do a deal.

There's also likely to be cuts to unemployment benefit and child benefit as well as further expenditure cuts across all departments.

Given the apparent resolve of the FF backbenchers, and indeed the Greens, the focus will be on the votes of Grealish and Jim McDaid in particular this week.

Personally, I don't see the Government falling over the Budget, and so surviving into next year - but elements of the media also feel that the votes of Devins and Scanlon bear watching. In a scenario where all 4 vote against the Government, then the majority is lost (81-83) and an election would no doubt have to happen in the near future.

Following up on this...
Budget Day yesterday. 4.1% cut to social welfare payments (excluding pensions) and a second round of sizable pay cuts for the public sector (averaging between 5-8%). An industrial action response from the public sector unions is very likely. It's form is up for grabs - though it's effectiveness, IMO, is not. That game has been lost.

Otherwise, yesterday saw the introduction of a carbon tax (read: more tax on fuels); a lame effort at inhibiting the recent surge in cross-border shopping traffic by a measly half-point reduction in VAT and a cut in excise on alcohol; and a car scrappage scheme.

On the politics of it all...
Noel Grealish would appear to have come to some sort of arrangement with the Government.
In the votes on the various opening budget related votes, he, McDaid, Devins and Scanlon have all stuck with the Government, so it looks very likely that the Government will stumble on to 2010.

I expect the opposition will start pushing for the Donegal SW by-election come January - that it probably the next event likely to shift the Dáil numbers.

[Јas]

And it's clear the pressure of the budget has clearly been getting to some...

[minionofmidas]

What is it Stagg said?

[Јas]

What is it Stagg said?

Gogarty was speaking on the Social Welfare Bill (which will implement the first cuts to social welfare payments since 1924). He was subjected to a numebr of heckles from 3 Labour Deputies, most immediately before his outburst by Stagg.

...

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[useful idiot]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f-TMSbQ8mk

[minionofmidas]

Merge!

Also, see my username.

[Јas]

Also, see my username.

[Јas]

First poll of 2010 out yesterday - an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll (MRBI having just recently joined the Ipsos group).

	22 Jan	26 Sept	22 Nov	2007
	Ipsos MRBI	TNS mrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	32	31	36	27
Labour	24	25	17	10
Fianna Fáil	22	20	23	42
Sinn Féin	8	9	10	7
Green	3	4	5	5
Ind/Other	11	11	9	9

Numbers for FF, FG and Labour are identical to where they were for the first MRBI poll of last year.

7th MRBI poll in a row with FG ahead of FF; 4th in a row with Labour ahead of FF.

Satisfaction Ratings

Gilmore	45	(+1)
Kenny	31	(-1)
Adams	31	(+3)
Cowen	26	(+3)
Gormley	24	(+2)
Government	19	(+5)

[Kevinstat]

Numbers for FF, FG and Labour are identical to where they were for the first MRBI poll of last year.

Well, that's kind of good news for FF, I guess, considering they were doing worse (significantly worse in one poll I remember seeing) than 22% at times last year.

Jas and Gully Foyle,

What does your gut tell you about (26 county) Irish politics in 2010?  Will it be quieter than 2009, with Fianna Fáil not having to worry much about the government falling and gaining some ground in the polls (perhaps still losing the Donegal SW by-election but getting closer to where they could gain it (or at least have Fine Gael lose it to Sinn Féin) in the next general election)?  Or will 2010 be much like 2009, with credible speculation on the government falling at least once and Fianna Fáil's numbers staing where they are or dipping even lower, but with the goverment hanging on into 2011?  Or will the Fianna Fáil-Green-Mary Harney government (which I know has had the support of other independents including the other ex-PD TD) finally fall, and if it does will there be an election or will the government be replaced without an election by a Fine Gael-Labour government including of supported by the Greens and also supported by most Independent TDs?  (I know Fine Gael and Labour would at present much prefer a new election but someone pointed out that that would not be palatable to the Greens and most Independents in the Dáil.)

[Kevinstat]

Looking over some posts early in this thread (which I didn't start looking at until 2008 at the earliest)...

Some more comments on the Dáil constituency changes...
...
It should be noted though that these constituency changes might never see an election. Though they will almost certainly pass into law without amendment, as is the norm, the next Census is due out before the next election and due to judgments handed down earlier this year, it's entirely possible that there will have to be a constituency re-draw before another election. Something the politicans will probably deem undesirable. It's been a while since a Dáil hasn't lasted a full term (the last 3 effectively have) and given the size and nature of the current government, there should be the stability there to last a full term, however the prospect of unknown boundary changes close to a general election might be enough to provoke a slightly earlier election than normal.

When is the next census in the Republic of Ireland?  Does it still look like there might never be an election held under the boundaries drawn up in 2007 (were they passed into law without amendment, by the way?) if the current Dáil runs full-term?  Or have things changed legally since then or been revealed over time not to be what you then thought they might be (like how soon after a census new boundaries have to be drawn)?

[Јas]

When is the next census in the Republic of Ireland? 

10 April 2011

Does it still look like there might never be an election held under the boundaries drawn up in 2007 (were they passed into law without amendment, by the way?) if the current Dáil runs full-term?  Or have things changed legally since then or been revealed over time not to be what you then thought they might be (like how soon after a census new boundaries have to be drawn)?

The last Constituency Commission review was passed without amendment, as is now the norm.

The law has indeed changed since then on this issue with the passing of section 9 of the Electoral (Amendment) Act 2009. The Constituency Commission will now be established after the publication of the preliminary census figures (usually produced around 3 months after census date). The Commission is then mandated to have its report ready no more than 3 months after the publication of the final results of the Census (usually produced around 11/12 months after the census date).

Without legislative change, the latest the next Dáil election could be is 14 July 2012 - though, in normal circumstances, the tendancy has been for May/June elections.

While it's theoretically possible to get new constituency boundaries in place, I doubt it would happen. It would presumably require the Government to pass the changes as one of its last acts before dissolution, and I doubt there would be the political will (on any side of the House) for the changes to be implemented.

[Јas]

Hands up, I didn't foresee the Government majority increasing this year, but...

Last June's by-election winner in Dublin South for Fine Gael, George Lee, has resigned from the party and from the Dáil after just 8 months in office. The respected former RTÉ (state broadcaster) economics editor has left because he was given no role in helping formulate the party's economic policy. He will now return to RTÉ in an as yet unknown capacity.

- Irish Times story

The move will/should come as a massive blow to FG leader, Enda Kenny, who has only recently apologised to his parliamentary party for a number of poor media performances in recent weeks, and who has faced constant issues with his satisfaction ratings lagging persistently behind his party, despite facing the most unpopular Irish Government since polling began.

I'd like to hope that this will provide sufficient momentum to dispatch Kenny altogether, but I'm probably being too optimistic.

Anyway, the new Dáil math is below...

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	72
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	3
Fine Gael	51	(-1)
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	2	(+1) (Donegal SW, Dublin S)

Government	85	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Grealish, Healy Rae, Lowry)
Opposition	78	(FG + Lab + SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan)
Majority	7

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Good news for Alex White. Otherwise, HA.

[minionofmidas]

Good news for Alex White.

I had to look that up. Now I agree.

[Kevinstat]

Any rough idea when the by-election to replace Lee will be held?  I know the party that last held the seat is generally given descretion over when the by-election is called, although I know someone in the opposition unsuccessfully moved the writ in Dublin South to replace Seamus Brennan after Fianna Fáil had taken forever to move it themselves.  Will Fine Gael want the by-election called quickly to bring the government's majority back down by 1?  Or will they want to wait to move the writ until they're in a better position to be competitive in the by-election vis-a-vis Labour, and how long would they be willing to wait if that doesn't happen?

Also, any news on the pending by-election in Donegal SW?

[Јas]

Any rough idea when the by-election to replace Lee will be held?  I know the party that last held the seat is generally given descretion over when the by-election is called, although I know someone in the opposition unsuccessfully moved the writ in Dublin South to replace Seamus Brennan after Fianna Fáil had taken forever to move it themselves.  Will Fine Gael want the by-election called quickly to bring the government's majority back down by 1?  Or will they want to wait to move the writ until they're in a better position to be competitive in the by-election vis-a-vis Labour, and how long would they be willing to wait if that doesn't happen?

Also, any news on the pending by-election in Donegal SW?

No idea when the by-election will be held - as you note, it is effectively a decision for FG. Though I'd suggest that it's more likely than not that the two by-elections will eventually be held on the same day.

Fianna Fáil still aren't ready for Donegal SW (though Sen. Brian Ó Donaill will almost certainly be their candidate), and FG won't rush to hold Dublin S any time soon - the loss of Lee is a huge embarrassment.; there is no obvious FG candidate; and, anyway, re-asserting/ending Kenny's leadership is the more pressing issue.

[Јas]

Kenny lives.

- Irish Times

[minionofmidas]

Damn, and I had my lame "they killed Kenny - the bastards!" joke ready.

[patrick1]

Damn, and I had my lame "they killed Kenny - the bastards!" joke ready.

Ha, That is much better than that's the End 'a Kenny angle.

[Јas]

punderful!

[Јas]

Almost certainly of no interest to any one else, but that never stopped me before...

The Government is down one member of the Seanad this morning as Sen. Deirdre de Búrca has done a George Lee, resigning both from her party (the Greens) and the Oireachtas.

Official reason:

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Unofficial reason:
No prospect of any future with the Greens. Failed to get one of the jobs for the boys in Brussels.

Anyway, the resignation will have minimal effect on the Government majority in the Seanad - which will temporarily fall to 5 votes. de Búrca's seat had been one as a Taoiseach's nominee, so one imagines it will be back up to 6 vote majority shortly on the new nomination being made.

New Seanad math:

Fianna Fáil	28
Fine Gael	15
Labour	6
Green	2	(-1)
Sinn Féin	1
Independents	7
Vacant	1	(+1)

Government	32	(FF, Green, O'Malley, Harris)
Opposition	27	(FG, Lab, SF, Mullen, O'Toole, Norris, Quinn, Ross)
Majority	5

[Јas]

Any rough idea when the by-election to replace Lee will be held?  I know the party that last held the seat is generally given descretion over when the by-election is called, although I know someone in the opposition unsuccessfully moved the writ in Dublin South to replace Seamus Brennan after Fianna Fáil had taken forever to move it themselves.  Will Fine Gael want the by-election called quickly to bring the government's majority back down by 1?  Or will they want to wait to move the writ until they're in a better position to be competitive in the by-election vis-a-vis Labour, and how long would they be willing to wait if that doesn't happen?

Also, any news on the pending by-election in Donegal SW?

No idea when the by-election will be held - as you note, it is effectively a decision for FG. Though I'd suggest that it's more likely than not that the two by-elections will eventually be held on the same day.

Fianna Fáil still aren't ready for Donegal SW (though Sen. Brian Ó Donaill will almost certainly be their candidate), and FG won't rush to hold Dublin S any time soon - the loss of Lee is a huge embarrassment.; there is no obvious FG candidate; and, anyway, re-asserting/ending Kenny's leadership is the more pressing issue.

Looks like the Government don't know when the by-elections will be held either...

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- Irish Times

[patrick1]

This seems rather tame.   I guess the perjury portion makes it worse, however, it is still pretty innocuous. 

The twitter headlines are great.

[minionofmidas]

This is a resigning matter? Wtf?