Ireland General Discussion

[Хahar 🤔]

Can the Dáil force out cabinet members, or was the vote of confidence simply advisory?

[Јas]

Can the Dáil force out cabinet members, or was the vote of confidence simply advisory?

Good question - I'm not sure.

I'm not aware of a motion of confidence against an individual Minister having ever been won by the opposition. Though politically, the position of any such Minister would presumably be untenable, constitutionally, Ministers serve at the pleasure of the Taoiseach.

It may be complicated depending on whether one considers the confidence motion to indicate that the Taoiseach has lost majority support in the Dáil...

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[Јas]

And the heads keep on coming...

Trevor Sargent (Green-Dublin N) has this evening resigned his post as Minister of State for Food and Horticulture. In a story broken only a few hours ago by the Evening Herald, Sargent wrote letters (back around June 2008) asking a prosecuting Garda to drop a criminal prosecution against one of his constituents. (The case proceeded and the man was subsequently convicted on a charge of threatening and abusive behaviour.)

Sargent is the former Green Party leader and TD since 1992 (when he was the sole Green TD). He was the safest Green seat going into the last election - but no such thing exists now.


I'm not sure which is more surprising, the Sargent letter, or that the Evening Herald appear to actually have journalists on staff.

---

In other news, Mark Dearey (one of only 3 Greens to get elected at the local elections in 2007) has been appointed to the Seanad to replace Deirdre de Búrca, following her recent resignation - thus restoring the Government majority in that chamber to 6.

[Хahar 🤔]

Can the Dáil force out cabinet members, or was the vote of confidence simply advisory?

Good question - I'm not sure.

I'm not aware of a motion of confidence against an individual Minister having ever been won by the opposition. Though politically, the position of any such Minister would presumably be untenable, constitutionally, Ministers serve at the pleasure of the Taoiseach.

It may be complicated depending on whether one considers the confidence motion to indicate that the Taoiseach has lost majority support in the Dáil...

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Ah, I see. Votes of confidence on ministers are something that I've only heard of in Weimar.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Change Places!

[Јas]

Change Places!

Any suggestions for which cabinet member is the Mad Hatter, the Dormouse, the March Hare, and Alice?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Change Places!

Any suggestions for which cabinet member is the Mad Hatter, the Dormouse, the March Hare, and Alice?

Elementary, my dear Jas... The Mad Hatter is Cowen, The Dormouse is Coughlan, The March Hare is the rest of the cabinet several times over and Alice is the whole country embodied in one girl (and the white rabbit would of course be a property developer)...

Don't even ask who Tweedledum and Tweedledee are...

[Јas]

Minister for Arts, Sports and Tourism, Martin Cullen (FF-Waterford) has resigned from Cabinet and the Dáil due to a back ailment that has been troubling him in recent months. That he was going to be leaving the cabinet was no surprise - the story has been foreshadowed for some time. (Indeed, it was quite possible he could have been removed involuntarily in the upcoming reshuffle anyway.) But the resignation of his Dáil seat is a surprise and quite significant - narrowing the Government majority and bringing on another unwinable by-election.

The new Dáil math...

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	71	(-1)
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	3
Fine Gael	51
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	3	(+1) (Donegal SW, Dublin S, Waterford)

Government	84	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Grealish, Healy Rae, Lowry)
Opposition	78	(FG + Lab + SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan)
Majority	6

[Kevinstat]

[Cullen's] resignation of his Dáil seat is a surprise and quite significant - narrowing the Government majority and bringing on another unwinable by-election.

I imagine that by-election will also not be held until "the back end of the year" at the earliest, but would you care to try and handicap that by-election this far out.  Also, how about those in Donegal SW and Dublin S?  You said on January 31 that you figured Fine Gael would be most likely to take that seat (or more likely than Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil which are the only other two parties of note that seem to exist in that area, although there are always Independent candidates), but that was before George Lee's embarrassing (for Fine Gael at least) resignation from both Fine Gael and the Dáil.  Labour would seem like the favorites (heavy favorites") in Dublin South, while Donegal SW would be an FG-SF battle which might hinge on whether Fine Gael has pulled itself back together by then.  The situation in Waterford would seem to be similar to that in Donegal SW except (hold on before you freek out) replace SF with Labour.  But I'd be interested in hearing your analysis.  Thanks.

[Јas]

[Cullen's] resignation of his Dáil seat is a surprise and quite significant - narrowing the Government majority and bringing on another unwinable by-election.

I imagine that by-election will also not be held until "the back end of the year" at the earliest, but would you care to try and handicap that by-election this far out.  Also, how about those in Donegal SW and Dublin S?  You said on January 31 that you figured Fine Gael would be most likely to take that seat (or more likely than Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil which are the only other two parties of note that seem to exist in that area, although there are always Independent candidates), but that was before George Lee's embarrassing (for Fine Gael at least) resignation from both Fine Gael and the Dáil.  Labour would seem like the favorites (heavy favorites") in Dublin South, while Donegal SW would be an FG-SF battle which might hinge on whether Fine Gael has pulled itself back together by then.  The situation in Waterford would seem to be similar to that in Donegal SW except (hold on before you freek out) replace SF with Labour.  But I'd be interested in hearing your analysis.  Thanks.

Waterford should be a FG gain. Labour, as you rightly say, should be the main competition - but it should be a fairly fragmented vote on the left between them, Sinn Féin and the Workers' Party. If the local elections last year are anything to go by however, the Fianna Fáil vote could well hold up well enough to be decisive. Candidate selections will be important.

I don't accept, by the by, that Labour are necessarily favourites (never mind strong favourites) in Dublin South - indeed, I should think that FG could well retain the seat. Alex White of Labour should actually have a shot this time, but presuming FG can come up with a reasonably good candidate (and the local FG party properly back that candidate) then they have a strong enough opportunity, notwithstanding the embarrassment of Lee's resignation to hold the seat.

[Јas]

Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona dhíobh!

[Kevinstat]

Bump.  Any official (or otherwise credible) word on when the by-elections in Donegal South West, Dublin South and Waterford will be?  Or has Brian Cowan decided to hold a snap election so he can lead the Fianna Fáil majority government that would surely result? 

[Јas]

Bump.  Any official (or otherwise credible) word on when the by-elections in Donegal South West, Dublin South and Waterford will be?  Or has Brian Cowan decided to hold a snap election so he can lead the Fianna Fáil majority government that would surely result? 

No sign of the by-elections yet at all. Unlikely to arise before the autumn - when an election will be held for the new directly elected mayor of Dublin, and probably one or two referenda as well.

Of course, FG could probably force the by-election in Dublin South (and no doubt would bring huge pressure to bear on FF to call the other 2 by-elections) but still embarrassed by the George Lee fiasco, they seem perfectly happy to try and hide that particular by-election amongst all those other elections in the autumn.

[minionofmidas]

You have some crazy rules on by-elections.

[Хahar 🤔]

Would Fine Gael be willing to be a junior coalition partner to Labour if such a situation were to arise?

[Јas]

Would Fine Gael be willing to be a junior coalition partner to Labour if such a situation were to arise?

Hard to say - depends on the leadership and on the actual ratio of Lab-FG TDs (FG could, and maybe would, still come out with more members than Lab on these numbers). I'd expect FG to at least pitch for a rotating Taoiseach deal though. The negotiating strength would be influenced by whether Labour could credibly put together an alternative Government (Lab-FF[-?]).

[minionofmidas]

John Bruton's brother. Always funny to see how clannish Irish politics is.

[Јas]

Always funny to see how clannish Irish politics is.

Indeed

There's at least 2 sets of brothers in the Dáil at the minute (one of which also have an aunt also there). One husband and wife. One brother and sister-in-law combo.

Not to mention a ridiculous amount of nepotism - in terms of the number of TDs who replaced their parents in the Dáil (including the Taoiseach, Tánaiste, Minister for Finance, the Leader of the Opposition...).

[minionofmidas]

While in Germany, having a political parent is something politicians don't like to see mentioned much as it's counting as a vague minus to the voters. Although there are a number of examples anyways (it probably helps in party-internal stuff, simply because you've known the right people from an early age).

Ursula von der Leyen and Roland Koch are both politician children.
Bernhard and Hans-Jochen Vogel were brothers, though in different political camps.
The brother of Walter Wallmann (mayor of Frankfurt 77-86, state pm 87-91) was mayor of Wiesbaden... and his (the brother's) daughter is now an MdL.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Politics in family is pretty common in France, and it doesn't disturb a lot of people, but it's not as if France's democracy was a model of 'openness' to the people.

[Kevinstat]

Any idea if Richard Bruton will immediately move the writ of the Dublin South by-election if he becomes Fine Gael leader?

[Јas]

Any idea if Richard Bruton will immediately move the writ of the Dublin South by-election if he becomes Fine Gael leader?

The matter hasn't been raised at all - so I don't really know. I suspect not though.

The FG parliamentary party (that's TDs, Senators and MEPs) meet later today to vote (by secret ballot) on a motion of confidence in Kenny. (Kenny prevented a motion of confidence at the frontbencher's meeting on Tuesday, which it looks like it was too close to call.)

Kenny's side think they'll win 41-29 today, Bruton's people think it will be a marginal win for them. Should Kenny fail to carry the party, a leadership contest will proceed with candidates having 7 days to declare.


As an aside, the Government won their confidence motion in the Dáil on Tuesday (82-77). Nothing particularly surprising in the voting.

[Јas]

Kenny has won the confidence motion.

Under recent FG tradition (noting their belief in principles of democracy, openness and transparancy) the result will not be made public. The two persons who know the result, Party Chair, Deputy Padraic McCormack (Kenny supporter) and Senator Paschal Donohoe, have been (I kid not) sworn to secrecy.

[Јas]

The Wildlife (Amendment) Bill 2010 caused much hubbub in the Dáil yesterday evening. The bill, a Green Party initiative, seeks to prohibit the hunting of deer with dogs - and caused serious rancour for various FF Deputies as well as others.

Harry McGee's blog covers the events/fall-out well enough.

The result today is another FF TD expelled from the parliamentary party (with another's fate to be decided later today); a Labour TD with his whip removed; normally pro-Govt Independents Lowry and Healy-Rae voting against the Govt; but also rare support for the Govt from other Independents (normally voting against them) O'Sullivan and McGrath.

[Oakvale]

I had a post all prepared about the hunting bill hilarity, but BRTD convinced me that Ireland was fascist police state, so I reckon I'd probably be taken out and shot by the Swiss Guard if I expressed an opinion.