Ireland General Discussion

[Oakvale]

In other news, the Dáil passed the Civil Partnership Bill, legally recognising same-sex relationships. All of the parties supported it, although AFAIK a few individuals have criticised it.

[minionofmidas]

In other news, the Dáil passed the Civil Partnership Bill, legally recognising same-sex relationships. All of the parties supported it, although AFAIK a few individuals have criticised it.

This could not possibly be. Ireland is a Catholic Conservative Fascist dictatorship.

[Oakvale]

In other news, the Dáil passed the Civil Partnership Bill, legally recognising same-sex relationships. All of the parties supported it, although AFAIK a few individuals have criticised it.

This could not possibly be. Ireland is a Catholic Conservative Fascist dictatorship.

All the TDs who expressed support of the bill were summarily executed by the Papal secret police shortly after.

[minionofmidas]

In other news, the Dáil passed the Civil Partnership Bill, legally recognising same-sex relationships. All of the parties supported it, although AFAIK a few individuals have criticised it.

This could not possibly be. Ireland is a Catholic Conservative Fascist dictatorship.

All the TDs who expressed support of the bill were summarily executed by the Papal secret police shortly after.

Good.

[Јas]

In other news, the Dáil passed the Civil Partnership Bill, legally recognising same-sex relationships. All of the parties supported it, although AFAIK a few individuals have criticised it.

Reading the Dáil report, I've not seen any comments opposing the bill. I heard news reports indicating Mattie McGrath had spoken against it, but haven't seen any direct quotes or noticed it in any transcript yet.

[Хahar 🤔]

This happened without controversy in Ireland of all places? Interesting.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This happened without controversy in Ireland of all places? Interesting.

People would think this would be controversial in Ireland of 2010 really know nothing about Ireland (Which isn't to say I think most people approve, the vast majority of people really just don't care.... and never did).

[Јas]

This happened without controversy in Ireland of all places? Interesting.

It might be the third most controversial bill before the Dáil this week. Maybe.

Anyway, I found Mattie McGrath's (FF-Tipperary S) contributions^{1 2}. He is the only Deputy who appears to have objected to the progression of the bill as a whole (rather than having issues with particular aspects/amendments). His objections though don't appear to relate to the creation of same-sex civil partnership, but rather to the provisions dealing with the accrual of rights to cohabiting couples (of, *I think* any orientation) owing to the simple longevity of cohabitation, rather than through any formal legal process as he would ostensibly prefer.

At any rate, the bill passed without the need for a full vote of the Dáil. It should be in the Seanad next week.

[Oakvale]

This happened without controversy in Ireland of all places? Interesting.

Ireland's really not as "conservative", in the American sense, as people like BRTD would have you believe.

I mean, if this bill was about abortion, there'd be huge controversy, but no-one cares if people want to get married.

Of course, there was a gaggle of people from shrieking right-wing nutjob organisation Cóir protesting, but no-one takes them very seriously.

[minionofmidas]

Besides, it's 2010. Mostwhere else in Western Europe has such legislation already. (googles) Anywhere but Italy. In a sense, the bill's timing confirms stereotypes about Ireland's catholicism more than it contradicts them.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Besides, it's 2010. Mostwhere else in Western Europe has such legislation already. (googles) Anywhere but Italy. In a sense, the bill's timing confirms stereotypes about Ireland's catholicism more than it contradicts them.

I disagree. The bill's delay has more to do with government laziness/apathy towards the issue than Catholicism imo.

[minionofmidas]

Besides, it's 2010. Mostwhere else in Western Europe has such legislation already. (googles) Anywhere but Italy. In a sense, the bill's timing confirms stereotypes about Ireland's catholicism more than it contradicts them.

I disagree. The bill's delay has more to do with government laziness/apathy towards the issue than Catholicism imo.

That's exactly what Euro Christian Conservatism has come down to.

[Kevinstat]

What would our forum Irish experts peg as the likelihood that the High Court forces the Government to call an election in Donegal South-West in the case being heard in October?  If the Government loses that case, what would the likely impact be on the scheduling of by-elections to fill the other two current vacancies?

Also, what was the aftermath after the dust settled from the vote on the stag hunting bill that you described in June? ElectionsIreland.org and Wikipedia differ on who lost their party whip as a result of that vote.

[Јas]

What would our forum Irish experts peg as the likelihood that the High Court forces the Government to call an election in Donegal South-West in the case being heard in October?

Remote. The Court will almost certainly rule it is entirely a matter for the Dáil to set the date for such an election. It’s also becoming increasingly apparent that the Government intend to chance their arm at not calling them until early next year. The legislation for a directly elected Dublin mayor won’t be ready early enough in the autumn to run it this year – and it seems likely that the Government will try to hold the by-elections at the same time as that.

If the Government loses that case, what would the likely impact be on the scheduling of by-elections to fill the other two current vacancies?

They'd effectively have to call those by-elections at the same time.

Also, what was the aftermath after the dust settled from the vote on the stag hunting bill that you described in June? ElectionsIreland.org and Wikipedia differ on who lost their party whip as a result of that vote.

We're now in the summer recess, so things have quietened down quite a bit. The session certainly had a rather chaotic end though in terms of persons losing their whips. From what I can see, neither electionsireland nor wikipedia are entirely accurate. My count is below, the Government majority is unchanged, though it’s a much shakier majority than it was, going into another difficult budget in December.

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	4	(Devins, McDaid, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	19
Labour (without whip)	1	(Brougham)
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	3	(Donegal SW, Dublin S, Waterford)

Government	84	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Grealish, Healy Rae, Lowry)
Opposition	78	(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab +SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan)
Majority	6

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Top (just before I'm off):

Found this interesting blog post on the 'labour surge' in the polls and shows really how the difficult it is for the party to do as well as the polls predict.

http://politicalreform.ie/2010/06/18/where-bloweth-the-gilmore-gale-precedents-from-1992-and-1969/#more-566

[Јas]

Top (just before I'm off):

Found this interesting blog post on the 'labour surge' in the polls and shows really how the difficult it is for the party to do as well as the polls predict.

http://politicalreform.ie/2010/06/18/where-bloweth-the-gilmore-gale-precedents-from-1992-and-1969/#more-566

Following on from this...
Labour to field 65 candidates at next election in hope of being biggest party (Irish Times)

Will try and take a look at some point as to the Jas recommendation for candidate numbers.

[Kevinstat]

So Jas, how bad for Cowan and Fianna Fáil is Cowan's recent interview gaffe?  (I'm not very clear on what happened, as I don't have the media player needed to play the interview in the Morning Ireland link, and I was too lazy to go through the steps in adding it.)  And is talk in Fine Gael circles (somewhat echoed by Labour) of a general election being called before Christmas wishful thinking or is there a more credible chance of the government falling this fall/early winter than you thought there was earlier in the year?

Assuming a general election isn't called before then, are there any new hints on the part of the government as when the by-elections to fill the three current Dail vacancies will be held?  And might Fine Gael want to go ahead and move the writ for Dublin South so trim the government majority by one?  (Did George Lee resign from Fine Gael before resigning as a TD, and if so would that give the government an excuse to go against custom and oppose a Fine Gael motion for a writ in Dublin South?)

[Јas]

So Jas, how bad for Cowan and Fianna Fáil is Cowan's recent interview gaffe?  (I'm not very clear on what happened, as I don't have the media player needed to play the interview in the Morning Ireland link, and I was too lazy to go through the steps in adding it.)

It was very, very bad for Cowen. Heck, it was being linked with a market spike against Irish bonds. And got plenty of play in the international press – ‘Irish leader drunk’ obviously plays pretty well.

Cowen's position as leader seemed potentially in jeopardy for at least a few hours that day - but though it led to a series of media pieces questioning the leadership, there's no sign of any internal FF heave, yet.

Brian Lenihan is the presumptive next FF leader - but uncertainty about his health (he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer last Christmas) complicates matters. Plus, he is, of course, increasingly tied to our economic performace. The recent extra bailouts to Anglo-Irish will have taken some more of the shine away from his standing.

And is talk in Fine Gael circles (somewhat echoed by Labour) of a general election being called before Christmas wishful thinking or is there a more credible chance of the government falling this fall/early winter than you thought there was earlier in the year?

The only way, IMO, there’s a general election before Christmas is if the Government can’t get the budget (due Nov/Dec) passed. A €3 billion adjustment is expected - not easy.

If FG actually wanted to try and force an election, they’d push for the Dublin South by-election to be called. They haven’t. (It troubles me that despite FF bankrupting the country for the second time in my lifetime, I still regard FG as a bigger joke than FF.)

I suspect both FG and Labour would prefer the Government present another adjustment budget before any election anyway, as they’re none too keen on making those decisions themselves.

The various politico voices in the media think an election will be upon us by next summer – after the 3 by-elections presumed to be for the spring. We’ll see.

Assuming a general election isn't called before then, are there any new hints on the part of the government as when the by-elections to fill the three current Dail vacancies will be held?  And might Fine Gael want to go ahead and move the writ for Dublin South so trim the government majority by one?  (Did George Lee resign from Fine Gael before resigning as a TD, and if so would that give the government an excuse to go against custom and oppose a Fine Gael motion for a writ in Dublin South?)

Next spring is presumed likely - unless the High Court actually grants Sinn Féin’s application to force the Donegal by-election (which will probably cost the Government more money to argue than it would to actually hold the elections *sigh*).

I think George offered a simultaneous resignation, though it shouldn’t matter to the point you raise. Though at this point it wouldn’t surprise me if the Government tried to prevent such a FG motion on whatever spurious grounds as might pop into their heads (it’s not like they’ve presented any coherent argument why they haven’t held the others so far.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was played on Channel Four news here. Maybe on other news programmes as well.

[Јas]

(I'm not very clear on what happened, as I don't have the media player needed to play the interview in the Morning Ireland link, and I was too lazy to go through the steps in adding it.) 

Cowen Interview - YouTube

No sign of the media letting go of this story yet, despite nothing substantively new to report.
Today's angle - Brian Lenihan forced to officially deny that he's going to challenge for the leadership.

[Verily]

Odds on Sinn Fein polling ahead of Fianna Fail some time before the election? (Just kidding... sort of.)

[Јas]

Odds on Sinn Fein polling ahead of Fianna Fail some time before the election? (Just kidding... sort of.)

Negligible, <1%.

Sinn Féin are probably the most consistent party in Irish polling over the past few years.
Since 2006, their min-max polling wise has been 6-11% - no other party has such a narrow range. For 2010 alone, the range is 6-10%, with the 6 an apparant outlier appearing once only, compared to 8 results in the 8-10% range. (It might be noted that, IMO, polling generally overstates SF's support by a couple of points.)

Despite economic catastrophe, SF's numbers haven't budged. So it seems reasonable to assume that if SF are to outpoll FF, FF will have to do all the work.

FF's min-max for 2010 is 17-27% - the 17 also looks like an outlier, the next lowest polling number for them this year was 22%. Another tough budget on the way can't help, but it's hard to countenance that FF haven't already hit the bedrock. Falling to single digits (which is presumably roughyl what is needed for SF to overtake) is still some way off.

That said, I'd expect new polling out soon and if sufficiently terrible, Brian Cowen's position would be rather tenuous. Were he to go, who knows what happens next.

[Oakvale]

There's a Red C poll due out on Sunday, AFAIK, and I wouldn't be surprised if FF hit a new low - although I agree that they're probably close to their floor as is.

 The more interesting question is how Labour and Fine Gael are doing - I wouldn't expect a repeat of the Irish Times poll showing Labour in first place, but I wouldn't rule it out, either.

[Јas]

There's a Red C poll due out on Sunday, AFAIK, and I wouldn't be surprised if FF hit a new low - although I agree that they're probably close to their floor as is.

FF's lowest polling to date has been 17, which they've gotten twice. Both times an MRBI poll (Sept '09 and the last one, June '10).

Their lowest ever RedC rating is 21 (May '09). That figure could well be in danger.

For a possible record low, the next MRBI poll (which must be soon-ish?) is the better bet - in 2009/10 (so far) on average MRBI have rated FF about 4.5 points lower than RedC.

The more interesting question is how Labour and Fine Gael are doing - I wouldn't expect a repeat of the Irish Times poll showing Labour in first place, but I wouldn't rule it out, either.

I'll also bet against that being the case in any immediate RedC polling - but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see MRBI reporting that that remains the case.

[Oakvale]

Just for the sake of it, TV3 did a poll yesterday. I'm not sure if they're especially reliable, but hey, it'll give us something to compare the Red C (and, apparently Irish Times) polls to.

Here's the results on sometimes-horrible-sometimes-half-decent site politics.ie -

http://www.politics.ie/current-affairs/138851-tv3-news-fianna-fail-22-fine-gael-30-labour-35-sf-4-grn-2-ind-8-a.html

Labour - 35,
Fine Gael - 30,
Fianna Fáil - 22,
Independent - 8,
Sinn Féin - 4,
Green - 2


Summary - Labour doing very well, still. Most noticeably, Gilmore holds a pretty impressive lead on the "preferred Taoiseach" question. The "garglegate" fiasco hasn't much changed people's opinion of Cowen. All somewhat predictable.

EDIT: More specifically, the interview controversy only bothered people who didn't like Cowen anyway. Mind you, that's most of the population so...