Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

Adrian Kavanagh makes some predictions based on the poll - pegging Labour for largest party on 59 seats.

[Јas]

Noel Grealish (i-Galway W) has withdrawn his support for the Government, over health cuts in Galway.

The loss of his support reduces the Government majority to 4 (per my numbers below). In theory, the vote can be bought back by protecting Galway from the cuts - but this isn't likely.

Up until now I would have wavered on the question of whether the Government could run to 2012, this defection tips the balance in my mind - the Government would do very well to still be in place a year from now.


Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	4	(Devins, McDaid, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	19
Labour (without whip)	1	(Brougham)
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	3	(Donegal SW, Dublin S, Waterford)

Government	83	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Healy-Rae, Lowry)
Opposition	79	(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab +SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, Grealish)
Majority	4

[Oakvale]

The Red C poll's out, with some depressing  results that are quite different from what other pollsters have been showing -


Fine Gael 31, (-2)
Fianna Fáil 24, (no change)
Labour 23, (-4)
Sinn Féin 10, (+2)
Green 3, (+1)
Others 9, (+3)

I'm fairly sceptical of this, to be honest - and that's not just because I'm a disheartened Labour supporter.

It's the first poll in a while showing FF out of third place, and, more to the point, contradicts fairly drastically with the TV3 poll released earlier this week.

Hopefully there'll be an Irish Times/MRBI poll soon which should clear up the confusion somewhat. AFAIK, they've got the best track record.

[Oakvale]

Oh, and South Tipperary's Mattie McGrath - who lost the FF whip over the stag-hunting bill - has  withdrawn his support over health cuts.

The government's now got a hilariously thin majority of 2.

[Хahar 🤔]

It doesn't look like the government can last until Christmas.

[Beet]

If the government falls, how long before new elections are held and the new government is sworn in?

I could see a nightmare scenario where the bond markets panic during the transition and there's no effective leadership due to politics. This is really troubling.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would you be happier with a military coup?

[minionofmidas]

If the government falls, how long before new elections are held and the new government is sworn in?

I could see a nightmare scenario where the bond markets panic during the transition and there's no effective leadership due to politics. This is really troubling.

Ireland is not relevant to the world economy / "too large to fail". You needn't worry, only the Irish might.

[Beet]

If the government falls, how long before new elections are held and the new government is sworn in?

I could see a nightmare scenario where the bond markets panic during the transition and there's no effective leadership due to politics. This is really troubling.

Ireland is not relevant to the world economy / "too large to fail". You needn't worry, only the Irish might.

 The problem is not one country per se, it's more of a question of where do you draw the line in the sand? If one country goes, it drags down other countries and...

[Хahar 🤔]

Would you be happier with a military coup?

In most countries, this is precisely what would happen now.

[Јas]

Oh, and South Tipperary's Mattie McGrath - who lost the FF whip over the stag-hunting bill - has  withdrawn his support over health cuts.

The government's now got a hilariously thin majority of 2.

Given that Deputy McGrath has a history of being all talk and no action (with the exception of the vote that lost him the whip), I'll await some actual parliamentary votes before making judgment on this. Indo are reporting that he'll vote on a case-by-case basis. We'll see.

The decision by Fine Gael to force stricter pairing rules though may well force his hand one way or the other fairly soon.

[Јas]

If the government falls, how long before new elections are held

Where a Taoiseach ceases to retain the support of a majority in the Dáil he must either (i) resign or (ii) ask the President to dissolve the Dáil forcing a general election. (The President may decline a dissolution where a Taoiseach has lost his majority - but no President has yet done so, and it would be exceedingly unlikely to happen in current circumstances.)

A general election must be held no more than 30 days after the dissolution of the Dáil.

and the new government is sworn in?

The outgoing Government remains in place until a new Taoiseach is elected by the new Dáil.

There is discretion as to when the new Dáil convenes after the election, but it's usually about 2-3 weeks after the election. (The date is effectively set by the outgoing Government in the order dissolving the Dáil.)

Electing a Taoiseach is one of the first orders of business for a new Dáil. He will usually appoint his cabinet within about 24 hours of his election.

[Јas]

I could see a nightmare scenario where the bond markets panic during the transition and there's no effective leadership due to politics. This is really troubling.

Far be it from me to guess what the bond markets will do at any given moment, but would not the fact that Ireland doesn't need to go to the bond markets for funds until *I think* next June count for something?

The bond auctions being carried out (including tomorrow's) aren't strictly necessary in the short-term, so far as I'm aware. As much as anything it's the Government trying to prove that they don't fear the markets (even if they do/should).

[Јas]

Looks possible that both Sinn Féin and Fine Gael may put motions down today to move the writs for the 3 outstanding by-elections.

[Јas]

Looks possible that both Sinn Féin and Fine Gael may put motions down today to move the writs for the 3 outstanding by-elections.

And indeed it is so. FG and SF have laid down joint motions for writs for the 3 vacancies in today's order of business. It seems quite clear that there is little or no prospect of the motions being carried.  


In what's probably more interesting news, someone crashed a cement truck into the gates of Leinster House (parliament buildings) this morning. The cement mixer bears the words "Anglo Toxic Bank" is huge red letters.

[minionofmidas]

All three, ie including the FG one(s?) ?

[Јas]

All three, ie including the FG one(s?) ?

Yeah, Dublin S (the FG one) is the first one up for discussion in about 75 mins time.
I understand at least one Government Minister has indicated that they won't pass.

[Hash]

What's FF's bullcrap 'official' excuse for not calling the by-elections?

[Јas]

What's FF's bullcrap 'official' excuse for not calling the by-elections?

According to the Chief Whip, the only Government Deputy present for the debate last night:

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Mmm.
Anyway, he informed the Dáil of the Government's intent to call the by-elections in the first quarter of next year.

[Oakvale]

If this was any other political party, I'd be certain that Kenny was doomed. But it's Fine Gael, and I've assumed Kenny was a goner after the George Lee resignation, and after the previous MRBI poll, and the powerful gombeen wing of Fine Gael seem intent on sticking with Kenny.

But still, this result really is disastrous for FG, so it might be what finally topples Enda.

More importantly, since MRBI have a sterling reputation this seems to confirm the results of the TV3/Lansdowne poll, and indicates that Red C results seem to have been something of a blip. Or a "rogue" poll, if you prefer.

Another thing about removing Kenny - who'd replace him? I don't know if Bruton would try again, and it's not like Fine Gael are going to go with Varadkar or someone else who's actually interesting...

[Oakvale]

BTW, if anyone wants a chuckle, check out Paul Gogarty's (he of "f*** you, Deputy Stagg" fame) Twitter, where he's currently having some kind of meltdown. I don't blame him, though, since presumably he knows he's going to lose his seat at the next election.

http://twitter.com/paulgogartytd

[Јas]

If this was any other political party, I'd be certain that Kenny was doomed. But it's Fine Gael, and I've assumed Kenny was a goner after the George Lee resignation, and after the previous MRBI poll, and the powerful gombeen wing of Fine Gael seem intent on sticking with Kenny.

But still, this result really is disastrous for FG, so it might be what finally topples Enda.

If wishing made it so.

I suspect Enda is saved by the fact that the poll is getting only a fraction of the attention it would normally get because of (i) the release of 2 other polls just days ago, but most importantly (ii) the much bigger story of the assessment of bank liabilities today - that's where the focus is.

Another thing about removing Kenny - who'd replace him? I don't know if Bruton would try again, and it's not like Fine Gael are going to go with Varadkar or someone else who's actually interesting...

Bruton or bust (i.e. keep Enda) methinks.

[Oakvale]

If this was any other political party, I'd be certain that Kenny was doomed. But it's Fine Gael, and I've assumed Kenny was a goner after the George Lee resignation, and after the previous MRBI poll, and the powerful gombeen wing of Fine Gael seem intent on sticking with Kenny.

But still, this result really is disastrous for FG, so it might be what finally topples Enda.

If wishing made it so.

I suspect Enda is saved by the fact that the poll is getting only a fraction of the attention it would normally get because of (i) the release of 2 other polls just days ago, but most importantly (ii) the much bigger story of the assessment of bank liabilities today - that's where the focus is.

You're probably right - Kenny's most likely safe for now, but if polls in the next few months are anything like this I'd imagine he'll be coaxed into 'stepping aside', as they say.

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Bruton or bust (i.e. keep Enda) methinks.
[/quote]

Brian Hayes occured to me, but... meh.

[minionofmidas]

If this was any other political party, I'd be certain that Kenny was doomed. But it's Fine Gael, and I've assumed Kenny was a goner after the George Lee resignation, and after the previous MRBI poll, and the powerful gombeen wing of Fine Gael seem intent on sticking with Kenny.

Thanks, I learned a new word today!

[Oakvale]

If this was any other political party, I'd be certain that Kenny was doomed. But it's Fine Gael, and I've assumed Kenny was a goner after the George Lee resignation, and after the previous MRBI poll, and the powerful gombeen wing of Fine Gael seem intent on sticking with Kenny.

Thanks, I learned a new word today!

Gombeen is a wonderful word.