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Kevinstat
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« Reply #500 on: October 01, 2010, 08:20:28 PM »

Stupid question probably, but could George Lee withdraw his resignation from the Dáil and be seated if he wanted to?  Or force the government to either seat him or approve a writ for a prompt by-election?

If the answer to both questions is no, which I expect it is, how does he likely feel about his decision to resign his seat (both his former constituents not having full representation and the government's now even narrower majority than when he left being one member larger than it would otherwise be)?  What is he up to now anyway?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #501 on: October 03, 2010, 04:40:58 AM »

could George Lee withdraw his resignation from the Dáil and be seated if he wanted to?

Nope

Or force the government to either seat him or approve a writ for a prompt by-election?

Shouldn't think so. It would require a strange turn-around from Lee and plenty of judicial creativity. I'd imagine public opinion wouldn't be on George's side either.

If the answer to both questions is no, which I expect it is, how does he likely feel about his decision to resign his seat (both his former constituents not having full representation and the government's now even narrower majority than when he left being one member larger than it would otherwise be)?  What is he up to now anyway?

He's back at RTÉ - on radio for the time being. And, of course, as an RTÉ journalist, he no longer has any political opinions...
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #502 on: November 01, 2010, 08:04:05 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2010, 08:06:26 PM by Kevinstat »

It's been a while since anyone posted on this thread.  Could someone "paint a picture" of what's going on?

While I am curious about the incident covered in the article linked to above, and what is the highest public office held by a member of the Éirígí party and if candidates run with that designation below their name (or are party names even listed on the ballot? even for local concils?), I'm also curious about what's going on in (26 county) Irish politics in general.  The whole talk of "talks" about the economy that started with a Green Party initiative seemingly taken without consulting Cowan is interesting, but I think Jas could summarize what has happened so far better than I could.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #503 on: November 01, 2010, 10:42:18 PM »

They only have two local councillors, both of whom defected from Sinn Fein and have never been elected under the Eirigi banner. Safe to say that they are the fringiest of the fringe.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #504 on: November 02, 2010, 09:56:51 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2010, 10:20:43 AM by Јas »

Surprise resignation!

Dr. Jim McDaid (unwhipped FF-Donegal NE) has resigned from the Dáil.

McDaid lost the FF whip in 2008 abstaining on a vote opposing the Government’s abandonment of the cervical cancer vaccine programme, decrying the move as a false economy. He’s been on record as favouring a General Election for some time. His letter last week to the Taoiseach, outlines his concerns. He believes the Government has not done enough to control the deficit – by, inter alia, insufficiently cutting public sector pay. He also favours cuts in minimum wage.

Despite his wish for significant deficit reduction, he has concurrently chastened the Government for failing to protect Letterkenny General Hospital from cutbacks.

Anyway, new Dáil numbers...

Current Dáil Composition
Fianna Fáil70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)  3(-1) (Devins, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael51
Labour19
Labour (without whip)  1(Brougham)
Greens  6
Sinn Féin  4
Independents  7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)  1
Vacant  4(+1) (Donegal SW, Dublin S, Waterford, Donegal NE)

Government82(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Healy-Rae, Lowry)
Opposition79(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab +SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, Grealish)
Majority  3

The shaky majority gets even shakier.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #505 on: November 03, 2010, 06:32:22 AM »

What with the events of yesterday, I'm now doubtful that the by-elections will actually be called at all. While it's conceivable, to me (possibly alone), that FF could actually hold one of those Donegal seats, it's unlikely. And with no prospect of being able to run a minority administration, methinks a general election is now more likely than not next spring.

Of course, there's still the matter of trying to pass a budget before then (7 December). Failing that hurdle, a real possibility, could mean a Christmas election. Wouldn't they all love that...


By the by Kevinstat, related to your query on the piant incident, Harry McGee's blog gives a quick consideration to the Irish public's usually insipid approach to protest.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #506 on: November 03, 2010, 08:07:33 AM »

Mr Justice Nicholas Kearns who has ruled today that the ongoing failure of the Government to call the Donegal SW is constitutionally unsound.

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So, a by-election isn't necessarily imminant - but the judge has basically told the Government that holding out much longer isn't an option.

The Government response is that they are studying the decision.
Sinn Féin will again lodge a by-election writ for Donegal SW tomorrow.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #507 on: November 03, 2010, 10:34:50 AM »

The Government response is that they are studying the decision.

For those of you who haven't noticed, this is the government's response to everything. Wink
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #508 on: November 03, 2010, 11:29:10 AM »
« Edited: November 03, 2010, 11:33:53 AM by Јas »

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- RTÉ report

One notes that a by-election must be held within 4 weeks of the writ being moved by the Dáil - so if tomorrow's motion is approved, the Donegal SW by-election would have to be held by 1 December.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #509 on: November 03, 2010, 12:06:52 PM »

Wow, things have heated up in (ROI) Irish politics all of a sudden!

McDaid lost the FF whip in 2008 abstaining on a vote opposing the Government’s abandonment of the cervical cancer vaccine programme, decrying the move as a false economy. He’s been on record as favouring a General Election for some time.

How did he vote on the Fine Gael motions for writs for the then-three vacant seats a couple/few months ago?  Also Michael Lowry, who has (iirc) made similar statements regarding a General Election?  If they both voted no on all those writs and the earlier SF motion for a writ in Donegal SW, how does one reconcile that with their desire for a prompt General Election that would be more likely if difficult/impossible for the government to win by-elections were held or were going to be held because of a sucessfully moved writ?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #510 on: November 03, 2010, 12:07:28 PM »

The judgment in Doherty v Govt of Ireland et al, wherein more than once Mr Justice Kearns accuses the government effectively of excessive hyperbole (Grin). He came close to daring the Government to oppose a motion calling for the by-election.

J'approve.

Reportedly the Attorney General is briefing the cabinet this evening on the decision. I expect the Government to announce within 24 hours that they will be moving a writ themselves for the by-election.

In the longer term, I expect that the judgment will almost certainly lead to legislative change compelling a set maximum period for the filling of Dáil vacancies.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #511 on: November 03, 2010, 12:10:14 PM »

I know you weren't expecting the ruling to go this way when I asked you earlier in the year.  Was there any time before the ruling came out today that you sensed it going the way it did, or was it a complete surprise?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #512 on: November 03, 2010, 12:46:22 PM »

I know you weren't expecting the ruling to go this way when I asked you earlier in the year.  Was there any time before the ruling came out today that you sensed it going the way it did, or was it a complete surprise?

Complete surprise to me. Strictly speaking of course, the court hasn't compelled the by-election - but the tone of the judgment is so strident, so damning of the Government, that it will have that effect.

The defiant reassertion of the judiciary's right to consider such matters and indeed to potentially direct how the Government act in the Dáil goes against the tide of judicial determinations on seperation of powers matters going back some time. I'm very pleasantly surprised. Smiley
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #513 on: November 03, 2010, 12:58:56 PM »

McDaid lost the FF whip in 2008 abstaining on a vote opposing the Government’s abandonment of the cervical cancer vaccine programme, decrying the move as a false economy. He’s been on record as favouring a General Election for some time.

How did he vote on the Fine Gael motions for writs for the then-three vacant seats a couple/few months ago?  Also Michael Lowry, who has (iirc) made similar statements regarding a General Election?  If they both voted no on all those writs and the earlier SF motion for a writ in Donegal SW, how does one reconcile that with their desire for a prompt General Election that would be more likely if difficult/impossible for the government to win by-elections were held or were going to be held because of a sucessfully moved writ?

I'd need to look up for certain, but I'm fairly sure both voted with the Government.

Off the top of my head, not sure about Lowry's previous comments on a general election - as to Lowry's position, this article sets it out as is - I think it's the first time he's staked out a position wherein he may oppose the budget.

As to the reconciliation you speak of - with regard to McDaid at least, he's conflicted between FF tribalist tendancies and that wish for a general election. His preference would have been for the party to want the election, rather than bring it on himself. Hence his decision to resign rather than simply leave FF and vote as an opposition TD - something that would have been more condusive to bringing about a general election sooner.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #514 on: November 03, 2010, 01:20:23 PM »

So, early next year we might see a government lose power, not through a general election, not through a coalition partner walking out, not through defections, but through some by-elections. Hilarious.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #515 on: November 04, 2010, 05:55:32 AM »

As Ireland continues its record-breaking on the bond markets, best to distract oneself with a little psephology I think.

Below some previous election results in Donegal SW...

General Elections (1997-2007)

For almost all of it's existence, since it was reconstituted in 1981, DSW has returned 2 FF, 1 FG (the only exception was in 1997, when it was 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind - the one independent, Tom Gildea, being a signle-issue candidate, whose issue [I kid not] was TV masts).

1997    2002    2007
Fianna Fáil384251
Fine Gael232523
Sinn Féin-1121
Labour433
Green4-1
Ind/Other31191


Local Elections 2009

The Dáil constituency of Donegal SW comprises 3 local electoral areas (Glenties, Stranorlar and Donegal). Making one of those terribly unwise calculations, the combined results would be…
Fianna Fáil29
Fine Gael25
Sinn Féin13
Labour8
Indies 24

The Independents include people formerly of FF, FG and SF. Notable inclusion here is Seamus Ó Domhnaill, who topped the poll in Glenties as an Independent - having failed to get a FF nomination. His brother, Brian, is a FF Senator (appointed by the Taoiseach), and the favourite to be the FF candidate. The fall-out from that local election is what has prevented FF from settling on a candidate yet for this by-election. Adjusting the local election numbers for cases such as Ó Domhnaill gives numbers much more favourable to FF: 36-29-17-8-10.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #516 on: November 04, 2010, 07:29:12 AM »

And the date is set... DSW will vote on Thursday, 25 November, exactly 3 weeks today.



For those interested in DSW's demography the Oireachtas Library have constituency profiles based on the last census (2006 - i.e. pre-economic apocolypse).

DSW is older than most parts as the young working-age population drifted elsewhere. For the same reason, DSW has lower educational attainment stats. Employment in 2006 was quite a bit below national average - I'll look at more up to date figures later. Fisheries more important here than most other places - Killybegs port is in DSW.

Obviously DSW is more Protestant than average and has more British citizens than many other places.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #517 on: November 04, 2010, 07:16:50 PM »

Why did Fine Gael lose ground (albiet only 2%) in DSW from 2002 to 2007?  Much of the Fianna Fáil gain could have been independent voters continuing to "come home" from 1997.  Was the count tight down the stretch between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin for the final seat there in 2007?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #518 on: November 05, 2010, 05:29:03 AM »

Final count    

Mary Coughlan         Fianna Fail             
 10,530        9,964        9,964    
Pat Gallagher       Fianna Fail            
 9,606        9,976        9,976    
Dinny McGinley       Fine Gael            +82       +1,032    
 9,167        9,249        10,281    
Pearse Doherty       Sinn Fein            +89       +712    
 8,462        8,551        9,263    

where 9964 is the quota, the second count was the redistribution of Coughlan's surplus, and the third count was the elimination of all three others (one Labour, one Green, one indy).
The + figures are the votes McGinley and Doherty gained on the second and third counts; Gallagher's mini-surplus was never redistributed.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #519 on: November 08, 2010, 04:45:06 AM »
« Edited: November 08, 2010, 04:47:25 AM by Јas »

Why did Fine Gael lose ground (albiet only 2%) in DSW from 2002 to 2007?

FG went from 2 candidates in 2002 (McGinley and White) to just 1 (McGinley) in 2007. (Running extra candidates tends to increase the first preference percentage - but as a trade-off tends to see votes transfer away to other parties rather than transfer to the running mate.)

Also, IIRC, McGinley had to be pleaded with by Enda Kenny to run again - hard to say how much his heart was in it.

Might have also helped FF that both their candidates were by 2007 high profile.



Much of the Fianna Fáil gain could have been independent voters continuing to "come home" from 1997.  Was the count tight down the stretch between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin for the final seat there in 2007?

As Lewis shows there, the gap expanded slightly from around 700 votes to over a 1,000. McGinley did better than Doherty on the only transfer of significance, but not as much better as such transfers would tend to go in most other parts of the country.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #520 on: November 08, 2010, 07:57:23 AM »
« Edited: November 08, 2010, 07:58:57 AM by your imaginary friend whose posts happen to be visible »

Irish goalkeeping legend, Packie Bonner would be approached but nothing seemed to come of that - which is all the excuse I need to link to, watch and well up again to this.)
That video is unavailable in my local dictatorship, but is it anything like this?
Cllr. Barry O'Neill (Fine Gael)
36. A sports producer with RTÉ.
O’Neill has been a Councillor for the Donegal local electoral area since 2004 when he scraped the last seat. Topping the poll in 2009 made him the frontrunner to be the FG nominee at the next General Election when the incumbent FG TD is expected to stand down.

A win for O’Neill would be a significant boon to Fine Gael – so far he’s been completely under the radar. The media have been running with the notion that SF ought to be making the running here, but O’Neill gets the much maligned Jas early favourite tag. 
I think by now you're jinxing candidates purely out of spite when you call them "favoured".

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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #521 on: November 08, 2010, 12:30:41 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2010, 12:44:08 PM by Јas »

Mr Justice Peart today granted leave for full hearing motions from FG members seeking the same declarations that Pearse Doherty got for DSW with regard to the Waterford and Dublin S constituencies.

The hearings are scheduled to begin on 22 November.




At any rate, as the bond markets continue to demonstrate disbelief at Ireland, if Prof. Morgan (he who foresaw the apocalypse) is correct in his assessment on the future of the Irish 'economy', the upcoming elections may all be rather academic.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #522 on: November 13, 2010, 07:04:59 AM »

Candidate deadline passed yesterday.

Just one more to add to those mentioned above - independent Ann Sweeney is running on a sort of plague on all their houses platform. Would probably do well to get her vote tally into triple digits, but she may yet earn the coveted Jas endorsement that could, of course, swing the election her way.



As to the market odds, according to local press:
Doherty (SF)       2/7
O’Neill (FG)         11/4
Ó Domhnaill (FF) 6/1
McBrearty (Lab) 13/2
Pringle (i)           12/1
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #523 on: November 14, 2010, 06:09:36 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2010, 06:12:28 PM by Kevinstat »

As to the market odds, according to local press:
Doherty (SF)       2/7
O’Neill (FG)         11/4
Ó Domhnaill (FF) 6/1
McBrearty (Lab) 13/2
Pringle (i)           12/1

Those odds (assuming someone with a 75% chance of victory would have odds of 1/3 and someone with a 10% chance of victory would have odds of 9/1), add up to 139.8% (77.8% for Doherty (SF), 26.7% for O’Neill (FG), 14.3% for Ó Domhnaill (FF), 13.3% for McBrearty (Lab) and 7.7% for Pringle (i)).  Is the vig built into those odds (which would make it a vig of about 28.4% (39.8% divided by 139.8%))?  Even if the odds for the candidates other than Doherty are from when Doherty's odds were only 4/6 before the High Court decision, those odds would have added up to 122.0% (an 18.0% vig).  Were the odds-makers just sloppy (or deliberately crafty) - is there an additional vig in Paddy Power?

Also, were these odds made before Sweeney filed?  Or would the betting odds against her winning be something on the order of... 1/0?  Wink
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #524 on: November 15, 2010, 03:18:23 AM »

As to the market odds, according to local press:
Doherty (SF)       2/7
O’Neill (FG)         11/4
Ó Domhnaill (FF) 6/1
McBrearty (Lab) 13/2
Pringle (i)           12/1

Those odds (assuming someone with a 75% chance of victory would have odds of 1/3 and someone with a 10% chance of victory would have odds of 9/1), add up to 139.8% (77.8% for Doherty (SF), 26.7% for O’Neill (FG), 14.3% for Ó Domhnaill (FF), 13.3% for McBrearty (Lab) and 7.7% for Pringle (i)).  Is the vig built into those odds (which would make it a vig of about 28.4% (39.8% divided by 139.8%))?  Even if the odds for the candidates other than Doherty are from when Doherty's odds were only 4/6 before the High Court decision, those odds would have added up to 122.0% (an 18.0% vig).  Were the odds-makers just sloppy (or deliberately crafty) - is there an additional vig in Paddy Power?

Also, were these odds made before Sweeney filed?  Or would the betting odds against her winning be something on the order of... 1/0?  Wink

I'm afraid the methodology of bookmaking falls beyond my understanding. What I can offer though are Paddy Power's latest odds, from which a mathemathic comparison can be drawn, and from which Ann Sweeney's odds are made available…

4/9   Doherty (SF)
13/8 Ó Domhnaill (FF)
9/1   O’Neill (FG)
10/1 McBrearty (Lab)
33/1 Pringle (i)
33/1 Sweeney (i)

Fairly substantial differentials for various candidates from the other odds above. They also include odds on a prospective Green candidate at 150/1, but to the best of my knowledge, no such candidate has filed.



The Irish Election Literature Blog does exactly what it says on the tin – publishing election literature past and present. So far, Ó Domhnaill is the only one who they’ve gotten anything on. Will keep an eye out for the others.
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