Ireland General Discussion

[Kevinstat]

That must be 13:1 (not 13:8 ) for Ó Domhnaill (FF).  That brings the percentages without the Green candidate to 101.3%, pretty close when you're dealing with integer fractions of the size used.  4:9 (a fraction of 9/13) and 13:8 (8/21) alone add up to 107.3%.

[Јas]

That must be 13:1 (not 13:8 ) for Ó Domhnaill (FF).

Actually no, 13/8 was correct. Though the odds have moved today, tightening for Ó Domhnaill...
2/5  Doherty (SF)
7/4  Ó Domhnaill (FF)
9/1  O'Neill (FG)
11/1 McBrearty (L)
33/1 Pringle (i)
33/1 Sweeney (i)

[Oakvale]

FWIW, the first poll's out, by Red C, showing Sinn Féin's Doherty leading easily.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To no-one's surprise, Labour's Eamon Gilmore is the most popular choice for Taoiseach, which is what national polling's been saying for ages now.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Here's some of the commentary on the poll relating to a general election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

EDIT: It's really impossible to stress enough how bad this result is for Fianna Fáil. If this is how they're polling in Donegal, they're going to get electorally curbstomped nationally.

It's obviously a great result for both Sinn Féin and Labour, too - the polling indicates that Doherty would easily retain the seat at a general election, and that Frank McBrearty would win a seat with 18%.

This might not seem hugely impressive, but Labour got 2.8% (!) in DSW last time around. Most hilariously, if the general elections figures are replicated next year, Mary Coughlan could quite possibly lose her seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you want a Donegal by-election thread over at the International Elections board?

[minionofmidas]

Hope they drop to fourth place.

FWIW, the first poll's out, by Red C, showing Sinn Féin's Doherty leading easily.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Јas]

Do you want a Donegal by-election thread over at the International Elections board?

Would it be possible to export the various DSW posts from here over?
If so - then yeah. (Not sure why I didn't set it up there when called actually.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think the recent posts on that topic could be split into a separate topic, which could then be exported into the international elections board and turned into a by-election thread. Andrew would have to do it though.

[Јas]

EDIT: It's really impossible to stress enough how bad this result is for Fianna Fáil. If this is how they're polling in Donegal, they're going to get electorally curbstomped nationally.

Indeed. But one must obviously take constituency polls with extreme caution.

Surprising just how strong Doherty appears. Though judging by all accounts of the debates, he's just about the only candidate who is actually coherent.

If O'Neill comes in 4th, would they have to try and resign Enda again - on the eve of a budget and within shouting distance of a general election? *fingers crossed*

[Tetro Kornbluth]

EDIT: It's really impossible to stress enough how bad this result is for Fianna Fáil. If this is how they're polling in Donegal, they're going to get electorally curbstomped nationally.

Indeed. But one must obviously take constituency polls with extreme caution.

Surprising just how strong Doherty appears. Though judging by all accounts of the debates, he's just about the only candidate who is actually coherent.

If O'Neill comes in 4th, would they have to try and resign Enda again - on the eve of a budget and within shouting distance of a general election? *fingers crossed*

No. It´s Labour-FG (in that order) or bust (and I mean that probably literally) at this stage.

[Јas]

[Oakvale]

I for one welcome our new EU/IMF overlords.

[Oakvale]

There's a Red C national poll coming out tomorrow which will apparently have FF support falling further.

Mind you, I don't put a whole lot of stock in Red C, as much as I'd like to believe that DSW poll. Wait for the Irish Times/MRBI - one's due soon, surely - which is really the gold standard as far as Irish polling goes.

EDIT: Not that Red C polls are bad, per se, but they were kind of outlier-y (...) earlier this year in comparison to the MRBI and Lansdowne polls.

[afleitch]

I for one welcome our new EU/IMF overlords.

Does this mean I like now own 2 meters of the M50? If so I'm so charging a toll

[Јas]

[Јas]

The Greens are precipitating a General Election for January.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[minionofmidas]

So no collapse by by-election then?

[Јas]

So no collapse by by-election then?

Nope. It's that impending collapse though that allows the Greens one last attempt at demonstrating their relevance by effectively setting the election date.

Though, of course, it's not inconceivable that the Government could fall before that. Passing the budget is not exactly a foregone conclusion. Noel O'Flynn (FF-Cork NC) today joins a number of other backbenchers in making ultimatums.

[Јas]

Jackie Healy-Rae (i-Kerry S) and Michael Lowry (i-Tipperary N) have decided to undercut the Greens, by immediately withdrawing support from the Government. Both declare that it is highly unlikely that they can support the upcoming budget.

Healy-Rae accused the Taoiseach of telling "blatant lies” to the Irish people regarding the IMF and ECB.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Given that, my adjusted Dáil/Government support figures are below.
Taking Healy-Rae and Lowry at face value, I’d count them as opposition members and thus rendering upon us a minority-Government.

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	3	(Devins, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	19
Labour (without whip)	1	(Brougham)
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	4	(Donegal SW, Dublin S, Waterford, Donegal NE)

Government	80	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney)
Opposition	81	(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab +SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, Grealish, Healy-Rae, Lowry)
Majority	-1

Which is very likely to become  -2 following the Donegal by-election on Thursday – but a week or so ahead of one of the most important budgets in the history of independent Ireland.

[Јas]

And the walls continue to crumble...

Seán Power (FF-Kildare S) calls on Cowen to resign.

Even presuming the budget passes, whether Cowen can lead FF into the next General Election is, at the very least, now on the table.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That cartoon is brilliant.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sort've related, but sort've not:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOQmuh_YPOk&feature=sub

[Јas]

Sort've related, but sort've not:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOQmuh_YPOk&feature=sub

Maybe if I watch it a few more times, the wisdom of that video will dawn on me.

In the meantime, for those who oppose Britain's contribution (thanks for that btw)... I'll point to one or two things.

1. Preventing turmoil in British and other financial markets

You must be logged in to read this quote.

- How to stop Ireland’s financial contagion, Financial Times


2. Profit

You must be logged in to read this quote.

- The ultimate carry trade, Buttonwood blog, The Economist

[You kip if you want to...]

Sort've related, but sort've not:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOQmuh_YPOk&feature=sub

Maybe if I watch it a few more times, the wisdom of that video will dawn on me.

In the meantime, for those who oppose Britain's contribution (thanks for that btw)... I'll point to one or two things.

1. Preventing turmoil in British and other financial markets

You must be logged in to read this quote.

- How to stop Ireland’s financial contagion, Financial Times


2. Profit

You must be logged in to read this quote.

- The ultimate carry trade, Buttonwood blog, The Economist

Personally, I don't really mind the bail-out. As long as it gets paid back and it doesn't have an even more adverse affect on the British public sector, I really don't mind.

And, I just think that Britain (and other countries) should look at Ireland before they decide to start an era of slash-and-burn on their country's public services.

[Јas]

Chris Andrews (FF-Dublin SE) joins the call for Cowen to resign as Taoiseach and FF leader. - RTÉ


Fianna Fáil ministers are meeting now.
With the prospect of failing to pass a budget now very much within the range of possibilities, what odds on a decision to immediately go for an election? Or in light of crumbling support, Cowen to make a statement on stepping down?

[Јas]

And, I just think that Britain (and other countries) should look at Ireland before they decide to start an era of slash-and-burn on their country's public services.

Meaning what exactly?