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Јas
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« Reply #725 on: May 29, 2012, 11:21:14 am »

It's tough for me to be sure which of the specifics (or more specific than that there will be 158 TDs) is from the commission and what is speculation on the part of the Irish Times.  I've been following NUI Maynooth Lecturer Adrian Kavanaugh's posts on the possible boundary changes at the geograhphy special interest gruob web site, and his latest entry, in response to the Irish Times report, was largely a rehash an earlier entry about what might happen if the Constituency Commission opted for a 158-seat Dáil.  He didn't say definitively that Cavan-Monaghan was going to lose a seat, for example, although I doubt he saw it as likely that part of Lough or Leitrim (wouldn't they like that? Wink ) would be added to keep it as a five-seater.  His didn't call the Laois-Offaly split either.  He didn't seem to take any of the more specific information in the Irish Times article into account (that he hadn't deduced already in a 158-seat scenario, like County Kerry becoming a 5-seater).

I haven't added up his seats by province, although he had said that County Dublin would likely lose three seats in a 158-seat scenario.  Perhaps someone (:cough: Jas :cough:) could re-post (or quote his post) of the Irish Times article, putting in boldface what the Irish Times probably got from the source and in italics what was probably their own speculation.

I'd take the newspaper report as pretty strongly indiciative. They could only have sourced that information from the Commission itself and it seems pretty declarative for the most part. They stuck it on the front page of the paper as well, so I presume that only underlines the confidence of the paper in their source.

Kavanagh's speculation makes interesting reading, and he could be right about quite a bit, but it is just speculation nonetheless.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #726 on: May 29, 2012, 05:30:25 pm »

Kavanagh's speculation makes interesting reading, and he could be right about quite a bit, but it is just speculation nonetheless.

Kavanagh seemed to assume that everything in the Irish Times article besides there being 168 TDs was speculation.  I had expected he would work within the rough perameters of the Irish Times article in his most recent analysis.

I'd take the newspaper report as pretty strongly indiciative. They could only have sourced that information from the Commission itself and it seems pretty declarative for the most part. They stuck it on the front page of the paper as well, so I presume that only underlines the confidence of the paper in their source.

Thanks.
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Јas
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« Reply #727 on: June 21, 2012, 05:02:50 am »

The Report of the Constituency Commission has just been published.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #728 on: June 22, 2012, 08:02:27 pm »

One possibility I didn't think of until after I had started to look at the Constituency Commission's report was to keep County Galway at 9 seats but, to make the large (and underpopulated slightly beyond the 5% benchmark) Galway East constituency smaller, to replace the existing 5-4 setup with three 3-seaters.  Counties Mayo and Roscommon could then have combined for 7 seats, a four-seat Mayo Constituency and a three-seat Roscommon-Mayo.

Of course, that totals to one more constituency than those three counties have in Thursday's proposal, so that seat would have had to come from somewhere else.  I thought I had an idea but I realized that I hadn't changed the total number of seats in that area (Laois, Offlay, Kildare, Tipperary).
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #729 on: June 23, 2012, 08:33:38 am »

One possibility I didn't think of until after I had started to look at the Constituency Commission's report was to keep County Galway at 9 seats but, to make the large (and underpopulated slightly beyond the 5% benchmark) Galway East constituency smaller, to replace the existing 5-4 setup with three 3-seaters.  Counties Mayo and Roscommon could then have combined for 7 seats, a four-seat Mayo Constituency and a three-seat Roscommon-Mayo.

Of course, that totals to one more constituency than those three counties have in Thursday's proposal, so that seat would have had to come from somewhere else.  I thought I had an idea but I realized that I hadn't changed the total number of seats in that area (Laois, Offlay, Kildare, Tipperary).

With a three-seater in the west you'd either have to split Galway city or do some very odd things with north Connemara. A four-seater with Connemara/Iar Connacht, Galway city and its immediate eastern suburbs might work, with the rest of Galway east of the Corrib forming a second four-seater.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #730 on: November 14, 2012, 08:49:33 am »

Irish abortion policy "kills woman"
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MaxQue
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« Reply #731 on: November 14, 2012, 11:20:56 am »

Too bad than EU is weak. Make a treaty about about abortion, instead of useless treaties. They would feel compelled to sign it to stay.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #732 on: November 14, 2012, 11:54:55 am »

Very Angry today. If I were actually living in the old sod, I would go on a protest march which would be an effective first for me. But I don't, so I can't.

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).
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afleitch
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« Reply #733 on: November 14, 2012, 01:19:39 pm »

The poor woman as a Hindu may not have died in a 'state of grace.'
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Oakvale
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« Reply #734 on: November 14, 2012, 01:57:23 pm »

Really obscene news out of Galway. I'm hoping against hope that this might be the impetus for an Irish government to actually do something about our genuinely disgraceful abortion laws, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they kick the can down the road, again.

"This is a Catholic country". There are no words.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #735 on: November 14, 2012, 03:36:47 pm »

I wonder when she said those words whether she meant it in a "There's nothing I can do" sense (as if she was shrugging her shoulders at the same time) or whether it was some kind of ethnic comment about this being 'our' country and she had to adapt to our laws even if it killed her. My suspicion is on the former.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #736 on: November 14, 2012, 03:47:08 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #737 on: November 14, 2012, 03:49:26 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #738 on: November 14, 2012, 06:02:56 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.
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Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
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« Reply #739 on: November 15, 2012, 05:17:27 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #740 on: November 15, 2012, 05:20:39 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.
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Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
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« Reply #741 on: November 15, 2012, 05:29:53 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....
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MaxQue
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« Reply #742 on: November 15, 2012, 05:33:41 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....

I know that. I propose forcing them to amend it and make them vote on that until they say yes. It worked for European treaties.
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Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
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« Reply #743 on: November 15, 2012, 05:41:31 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....

I know that. I propose forcing them to amend it and make them vote on that until they say yes. It worked for European treaties.

And as I said before, there isn't any chance of that happening. We've already had 3 referendums (actually 5 question) on Abortion since 1983 which have indicated an overwhelming conservative majority (kind of). Abortion isn't going to be legalized 'on demand' in Ireland at time soon, which is unfortunate, but is the truth.

Also considering the sort of bitterness and rancor that previous Abortion campaigns have brought into Irish discourse, no politician even wants to touch the issue. Which is why this tragedy happened.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #744 on: November 15, 2012, 06:56:36 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....

I know that. I propose forcing them to amend it and make them vote on that until they say yes. It worked for European treaties.

And as I said before, there isn't any chance of that happening. We've already had 3 referendums (actually 5 question) on Abortion since 1983 which have indicated an overwhelming conservative majority (kind of). Abortion isn't going to be legalized 'on demand' in Ireland at time soon, which is unfortunate, but is the truth.

Also considering the sort of bitterness and rancor that previous Abortion campaigns have brought into Irish discourse, no politician even wants to touch the issue. Which is why this tragedy happened.

Can you give some examples of how bitter abortion debates were in Ireland?
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Oakvale
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« Reply #745 on: November 15, 2012, 07:15:08 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....

I know that. I propose forcing them to amend it and make them vote on that until they say yes. It worked for European treaties.

And as I said before, there isn't any chance of that happening. We've already had 3 referendums (actually 5 question) on Abortion since 1983 which have indicated an overwhelming conservative majority (kind of). Abortion isn't going to be legalized 'on demand' in Ireland at time soon, which is unfortunate, but is the truth.

Also considering the sort of bitterness and rancor that previous Abortion campaigns have brought into Irish discourse, no politician even wants to touch the issue. Which is why this tragedy happened.

I do think the country's changed enough in the last decade - I can't imagine gay marriage having massive national support in 2002 - that there'd be some hope for a positive result in an abortion referendum. Maybe not to fully liberalise - though that's not on the cards anyway - but I think an easing of the restrictions would have a good chance of passing, and the odd poll that comes out backs me up. I might be too optimistic, though.

I agree 100% with your last point, unfortunately. Politicians are terrified of touching this.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #746 on: November 15, 2012, 07:26:36 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....

I know that. I propose forcing them to amend it and make them vote on that until they say yes. It worked for European treaties.

And as I said before, there isn't any chance of that happening. We've already had 3 referendums (actually 5 question) on Abortion since 1983 which have indicated an overwhelming conservative majority (kind of). Abortion isn't going to be legalized 'on demand' in Ireland at time soon, which is unfortunate, but is the truth.

Also considering the sort of bitterness and rancor that previous Abortion campaigns have brought into Irish discourse, no politician even wants to touch the issue. Which is why this tragedy happened.

Can you give some examples of how bitter abortion debates were in Ireland?

Some Youtube clips of the 1983 Referendum campaign should suffice:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOnoCOSwzwM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t507IF7XrCY (Interesting to note that one of the two main 'pro-life' speakers here, one, the priest, turned out later to have a secret family and the other would turn insanely right-wing near the end of her life. Monica Barnes was completely right btw).

Also this from the 1983 referendum, Res ipsa loquitur:

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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #747 on: November 15, 2012, 07:31:37 pm »

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....

I know that. I propose forcing them to amend it and make them vote on that until they say yes. It worked for European treaties.

And as I said before, there isn't any chance of that happening. We've already had 3 referendums (actually 5 question) on Abortion since 1983 which have indicated an overwhelming conservative majority (kind of). Abortion isn't going to be legalized 'on demand' in Ireland at time soon, which is unfortunate, but is the truth.

Also considering the sort of bitterness and rancor that previous Abortion campaigns have brought into Irish discourse, no politician even wants to touch the issue. Which is why this tragedy happened.

I do think the country's changed enough in the last decade - I can't imagine gay marriage having massive national support in 2002 - that there'd be some hope for a positive result in an abortion referendum. Maybe not to fully liberalise - though that's not on the cards anyway - but I think an easing of the restrictions would have a good chance of passing, and the odd poll that comes out backs me up. I might be too optimistic, though.

I agree 100% with your last point, unfortunately. Politicians are terrified of touching this.

Gay Marriage is a new issue though, hardly on the radar in 2002 (Is this another thing we should be secretly grateful to Karl Rove for?) while Abortion had been an issue in the public arena for at least 20 years by then.

I agree though that a much, much more liberal result can be expected in regards to another referendum. But I doubt actual liberalization is really on the cards. Not even the Dublin 'meeja' is for it and certainly no-one really wants that referendum. It is the issue - well, now along with Europe since the uncovering of Declan Ganley - which brings out the crazies.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #748 on: November 15, 2012, 07:45:33 pm »

That paper in hurting the scientist in me.

Since gay marriage is on the topic, what is the Ireland situation?
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DemPGH
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« Reply #749 on: November 15, 2012, 07:53:15 pm »


I just cannot believe that there was no recourse for the husband and for this woman other than to just lie there and suffer. Really, really an outrage.
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