Ireland General Discussion

[Blue3]

so, Hurricane Ophelia...

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 29 (-1)
FF 25 (-1)
Ind/Oth 16 (+4)
SF 14 (-2)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 4 (-)
GP 4 (+2)
SD 2 (-2)
Renua 0 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times

FG 34 (+3)
FF 31 (+4)
SF 14 (-5)
Ind/Oth 11 (-4)
Lab 3 (-1)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

I think that's probably an all-time record for Labour, but then it is B&A.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-42039618

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So, who replaces the venerable leader of Sinn Fein? And will this make it easier for them to form a coalition without the polarizing presence of Adams in charge?

[Lord Halifax]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-42039618

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So, who replaces the venerable leader of Sinn Fein? And will this make it easier for them to form a coalition without the polarizing presence of Adams in charge?

Michelle O'Neill, and no.

[ObserverIE]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-42039618

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So, who replaces the venerable leader of Sinn Fein? And will this make it easier for them to form a coalition without the polarizing presence of Adams in charge?

Michelle O'Neill, and no.

Most likely Mary Lou McDonald (parliamentary leader in the Dáil).

[ObserverIE]

We may, by the way, be having a general election on December 21 if a Mexican stand-off between FG and FF over the position of the Tánaiste (Deputy PM) isn't resolved by Tuesday evening. The stand-off is over a long-running police corruption case where a whistleblower was falsely accused of child abuse. The allegation is that Frances Fitzgerald (then Justice Minister) was notified by email about the then Garda Commissioner's legal team planning to use the false allegation to imply that the whistleblower was motivated by malice during an investigation of the whistleblower's treatment, and that she failed either to take any action at the time or to inform Varadkar about her knowledge of the legal strategy when he was asked about it in the Dáil this week, thereby causing him to inadvertently mislead the Dáil and to have to retract the Dáil record.

FF have moved a motion of no confidence in Fitzgerald, while FG are standing firm for the moment. If the motion of no confidence succeeds, then the Dáil will be dissolved for a general election.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 27 (-2)
FF 26 (+1)
SF 16 (+2)
Ind/Oth 14 (-2)
Lab 6 (-)
GP 4 (+2)
SP/SWP 3 (-1)
SD 3 (+1)
Renua 1 (+1)

Given RedC's habit of overpolling FG and underpolling FF, this might make Varadkar think about cooling his jets about an election. Possibly.

[cp]

Looks like the snap election has been avoided

Not knowing the background and texture of Irish politics on this matter, I would welcome some clarification as to how much this changes things, if at all

[Tintrlvr]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 27 (-2)
FF 26 (+1)
SF 16 (+2)
Ind/Oth 14 (-2)
Lab 6 (-)
GP 4 (+2)
SP/SWP 3 (-1)
SD 3 (+1)
Renua 1 (+1)

Given RedC's habit of overpolling FG and underpolling FF, this might make Varadkar think about cooling his jets about an election. Possibly.

Is Renua still a thing? I thought they gave up.

[ObserverIE]

Looks like the snap election has been avoided

Not knowing the background and texture of Irish politics on this matter, I would welcome some clarification as to how much this changes things, if at all

It probably weakens Varadkar internally within FG - a lot of TDs and Ministers did the needful and went on local or national radio saying that Fitzgerald had nothing to resign for, when Varadkar would have known on the Friday that her position was totally untenable (Kenny would have given her the heave as soon as the first allegations became public). He didn't have majority support within the grassroots in any case and this won't help. It may also weaken FG relative to FF.

In terms of the EU negotiations, it changes nothing. Varadkar is simply stating more explicitly what everyone else (bar the Trots and a few cranks on the Tory-aping right) thinks.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 27 (-2)
FF 26 (+1)
SF 16 (+2)
Ind/Oth 14 (-2)
Lab 6 (-)
GP 4 (+2)
SP/SWP 3 (-1)
SD 3 (+1)
Renua 1 (+1)

Given RedC's habit of overpolling FG and underpolling FF, this might make Varadkar think about cooling his jets about an election. Possibly.

Is Renua still a thing? I thought they gave up.

Their ex-TDs have all left (Flanagan and Timmins have gone back to FG and Creighton is working as a lobbyist) but they have two councillors and the 2% of the first preference vote last time means that they get state funding until the next election. They have an outside chance of a seat in Laois-Offaly next time round with their party leader.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 36 (+5)
FF 25 (-4)
SF 19 (-)
Ind/Oth 9 (-1)
Lab 4 (-)
GP 3 (-)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)
SD 1 (-1)

Poll was carried out on Monday and Tuesday when Leo Was Standing Up For Erin Against The Nefarious Saxon Foe. Brexiteer pundits might wish to take note of what parties are and are not losing votes to Leo the Lion.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times

FG 34 (-)
FF 26 (-5)
SF 17 (+3)
Ind/Oth 12 (+1)
Lab 5 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
GP 2 (-)
SD 2 (+1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

[EPG]

Electoral timetable
Varadkar* seems keen to continue the government beyond the October 2018 budget (link). As long as he's delivering big poll leads, who can blame him? It's as good as having a majority.

That schedule would mean four national votes in 2018: constitutional amendments to repeal the abortion limits, the blasphemy ban, and the clause on woman's contribution to the family; furthermore, a Presidential election which will happen regardless of the government. In some parts of the country, there may be additional mini-referendums to allow city-dwellers to elect mayors.
Survival beyond 2018 would mean five national votes in 2019: three plebiscites to allow easier divorce, votes for overseas citizens, and votes at age 16; furthermore, two scheduled elections for local councils and the European Parliament regardless of the government. There might be an extra European MEP for Ireland if Britain Brexits promptly. Governments like these elections because notwithstanding some losses in by-elections, they give exit opportunities to MEP/Commissioner candidates with cabinet seats, allowing graceful reshuffles.
Add in a general election sometime in 2018-19, but remember that they all predicted a 2017 election and it didn't happen, so treat this as uncertain.

The closest contests among the referendums, in my opinion, are the ones in 2018. Divorce and overseas citizens should pass. Votes at 16 will fail.

* who may be gone by March if the SWP/Irish Times is correct: https://twitter.com/KittyHollandIT/status/935521034169708545 , or, not

[Helsinkian]

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/29/mi5-urged-uvf-to-kill-irish-pm-claim-newly-released-state-papers

[EPG]

By the way, anyone wondering why opinion changed from "dead Varadkar" to "hero Varadkar" in the closing 4 weeks of last year can look no further than the Ipsos poll. It's the company that gets it right most often.

The most important issue in the first half of this year, at the least, will be Abortion:
A special parliamentary committee considered the recommendations from the citizens' assembly on abortion and the new laws that might follow from any change. The committee's main proposal was to repeal the constitutional provisions on abortion in place since 1983. They also suggested that the law should allow abortion up to 12 weeks into pregnancy, or at other times in case of a threat to the health of the woman.

A hard-to-read summary of the committee votes is here (Irish Times image link), and observe that a 22-week limit was defeated 4-17 and would still be more restrictive than in England. Three members supporting all restrictions instead issued a minority report calling for no change in law and a different citizens' assembly; one of them is now talking about a new political alignment to oppose abortion, which would presumably work like the current alliances of independents all across the Oireachtas.

Step 1 is for the Oireachtas to pass a bill authorising a referendum on the repeal of the previous constitutional amendment. The first column of the Irish Times image suggests a free vote would split the two main parties. The government is drafting a proposal, and I read comments by Peter Fitzpatrick of Fine Gael, one of the three dissenters, suggesting most of his colleagues would support repeal. Fianna Fáil will have a free vote. Sinn Féin, smaller parties and the pro-government independents would mainly support repeal.

Any referendum is scheduled for early summer, but it might be delayed until the Papal visit in autumn, which would be brilliant. There's no point in posting early opinion polling, because it has been so misleading as to Irish referendum outcomes in the past.

[ObserverIE]

Leo's FanboisIreland Thinks for the Irish Daily Mail:

FG 33 (+1)
FF 26 (-3)
SF 16 (+2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
SD 2 (-)

[ObserverIE]

A hard-to-read summary of the committee votes is here (Irish Times image link), and observe that a 22-week limit was defeated 4-17 and would still be more restrictive than in England.

What was defeated was abortion on request de jure until 22 weeks. Whether or not the proposed legislation would actually be more, less, or equally restrictive as in England would depend on the interpretation of risk to health and as to what, if any, gestational limits there were on those grounds. Abortion is not legal on request de jure in the UK - almost all terminations there are carried out on the grounds of there being a danger to the mental health of the mother which is greater than if the pregnancy was to be ended. This (i.e. the English legislation) may well be abortion on request de facto, but not de jure.

[EPG]

A fair if legalistic point, but to be clear for overseas readers, it's not hard to find two English doctors who will certify an abortion up to 24 weeks, so the health conditions are not restrictive. You may have to travel in certain areas depending on local opinion, but it's not a Mississippi- or Texas-type question of prohibitive distance. The committee's proposal is much more in line with laws in other European countries than with the English model. The point is that there is little prospect of second-trimester abortions being generally permitted in the foreseeable future.

[ObserverIE]

A fair if legalistic point, but to be clear for overseas readers, it's not hard to find two English doctors who will certify an abortion up to 24 weeks, so the health conditions are not restrictive. You may have to travel in certain areas depending on local opinion, but it's not a Mississippi- or Texas-type question of prohibitive distance. The committee's proposal is much more in line with laws in other European countries than with the English model. The point is that there is little prospect of second-trimester abortions being generally permitted in the foreseeable future.

I wouldn't be convinced on that score - most abortions might well be carried out in the first trimester (as in almost all countries) but the way in which "any risk to health" would be interpreted would determine the effective later limits. The signature requirement in Great Britain is largely nominal because most clinics or hospitals will have two doctors employed who will sign the form pretty much automatically.

The proposal to have no restrictions until 22 weeks actually went beyond the Citizens' Assembly recommendations, which had proposed allowing abortion on socio-economic grounds until that point - a proposal to include socio-economic reasons under the health grounds (and therefore without defined term limits) was defeated by one vote (9-10) at the committee.

The more liberal the proposed legislation is, the less likely the referendum is to pass, and I suspect that this is giving abortion opponents plenty to work with.

[ObserverIE]

Electoral timetable
Varadkar* seems keen to continue the government beyond the October 2018 budget (link). As long as he's delivering big poll leads, who can blame him? It's as good as having a majority.

The Brexit negotiations and the Border issue have been Leo's bloodless Falklands War - at least for the moment.

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If overseas citizens includes passport holders who have never lived on the island, I would expect it to fail.

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Note to British Remainer observers looking at our press: No, we don't have a Daily Express or a Telegraph #premium, but it can be awful in different ways, like having journalists who are unable to distinguish reporting or analysis from activism on the topics they're supposed to be reporting.

[EPG]

I suppose I simply think FF, FG and the independents will squash any legal lacuna that could make abortion a wound on their right flank in every future election, and so general availability of abortions will be out out, beyond the formal legal limit. They don't want the competition, whereas if some centre-left group don't like it, who cares?

Hang on readers - there will be other issues too - but don't be surprised if political analysis looks mainly like the foregoing! Micheál Martin suggested FF's support of the government is not guaranteed to end in 2018, but is contingent on housing and health policy delivery. Housing is a huge topic - check out Eurobarometer. About 90% of people are dependent on private-sector housing, where both prices and rents have risen very rapidly in the last five years, faster than incomes. To summarise the causes and solutions is beyond my patience as someone who has lived it! Too few new housing completions to meet the demographic determinants, is the consensus.

Health is a permanent issue, and though it's hard to argue it matters THAT much to macro-political outcomes because it seems the country has never been happy about it ever, it can certainly cause micro-level political realignments or, put less poetically, TDs can lose their seats in affected areas. To borrow from computer science, it's a Juncker-hard problem. On neither of these issues has any particular opposition party made many gains; it's really the small stuff that matters.

Note Martin doesn't mention Brexit so much, and I'd agree that Brexit will be consensus matter unless surprising developments happen. The polls seem to have softened his cough on Brexit as an opportunity for political dissent and he may keep his Brexit spokesman Stephen Donnelly back on the leash.

Issues like immigration and terrorism don't matter now, and are wholly contingent on fate. There was a bad incident yesterday that may change things, but we can afford to wait a day for the facts.

Overlooked electoral timetable factlet. 2017 was the first year without any kind of election or referendum since 2006. The largest vote was the Fine Gael leadership contest, at just over 11,000 voters - but this was closed to party members only!

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times

FG 32 (-2)
FF 26 (-)
SF 18 (+1)
Ind/Oth 13 (+1)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
GP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

[EPG]

There might be an extra European MEP for Ireland if Britain Brexits promptly.

In fact, the Parliament's Constitutional committee has proposed 2 extra MEPs, so the national delegation will rocket from 11 to 13. This could mean a return to the traditional alignment of constituencies, being 2 in Leinster, 1 in Munster and 1 Connacht + Ulster + peripheries of Leinster and Munster.