Ireland General Discussion

[Lord Halifax]

FF 24 (-5)

Pretty big drop, any idea what might have caused it?

[ObserverIE]

FF 24 (-5)

Pretty big drop, any idea what might have caused it?

Quite likely to be margin of error until we see a trend being confirmed in other polls. I don't rate RedC especially highly. They were up this month in B&A, who also tend to be somewhat flaky but at least report their internals.

[EPG]

FF 24 (-5)

Pretty big drop, any idea what might have caused it?

Irish turnout models are quite obscure and most Irish poll companies produce volatile and imprecise results, except Ipsos, who poll infrequently. Unless and until change is sustained, consider most support changes to be outliers. You'll note that REDC's four most recent FF scores have been 26-26-29-24, so the 29 looks like the outlier.

If you've seen Irish election maps, you'll know there are very few individual election results per election; only 40 in general elections and perhaps 150 in local elections every 5 years. Compare to the UK with hundreds of constituencies, Italy that reports votes by comune, etc. And post-election surveys are sporadic. So the micro-data about voting in Ireland on which to calibrate any model of voter behaviour are low-frequency and low in observation count. That's before we consider the weak social basis of FF/FG/Independent party preference, so low in observable correlates as well!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I hope the Irish realize that they don't have a right to tell a woman what to do with her body.

[warandwar]

The SWP might like to be Syriza but I don't think they have the same potential for a wide appeal because the ideological vacancy isn't there (Labour never had PASOK's breadth or depth of support).

They also have fairly different ideologies and theoretical standpoints than SYRIZA did (and that's definitely past tense). Everything you've described from the way they recruit to bizarre factional sectarianism is a)textbook Trot, b)guaranteed to stop them from ever actually refounding the Worker's International, and c)destined to steer them clear of any strategic possibilities (of which there are loads rn).

[EPG]

Put simply, the combination of Sinn Féin on the left, and Fianna Fáil on the centre and right, and both parties reaching out to the centre-left, poses big strategic questions for any other opposition movement. It also drains them of opportunity. Opportunity is pretty limited at the moment, anyway: check out the economic statistics. It's even a difficult question for SF to address its position vis-a-vis the other two major parties, so doubly so for the remainder of the left. A combined force of Labour + Green + SD would be in double digits and that would give it a say in coalition brokerage. However, I must reiterate that none of them broadcast aspirations beyond getting the current TDs re-elected.

Speaking of FF, they had a reshuffle, the only detail of note being that their Brexit spokesman was moved on to health, in the middle of Brexit, and after only a year.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 31 (-3)
FF 26 (+1)
SF 22 (+3)
Ind/Oth 9 (-3)
Lab 5 (+1)
GP 3 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)

[EPG]

And so, we're pretty much back to 2013 or 2015 poll figures.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times

FG 33 (+1)
FF 25 (-2)
SF 21 (+2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-2)
Lab 6 (-)
GP 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-)
SD 1 (+1)
Renua 1 (+1)
WP 0 (-)

[EPG]

Since these two polls are so similar, just an annotation on the change since the last election.
Gaining: FG +5 to +8; SF +7 to +8; FF +1 to +2

Losing: Labour -1 to -2; PBP etc - 2 to -3; SD -1 to -2; Greens -1 to -2

Everyone else: -7 to -12

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 32 (-1)
FF 25 (+1)
Ind/Oth 16 (+4)
SF 14 (-2)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (+1)
SD 2 (-)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 1 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

Ireland Thinks for the Irish Daily Mail:

FG 29 (-4)
FF 26 (-)
SF 16 (+2)
Ind/Oth 13 (+1)
Lab 5 (-1)
SP/SWP 4 (+1)
GP 4 (+2)
SD 3 (+1)

[ObserverIE]

IMS/Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent:

FG 34 (-2)
FF 27 (-1)
SF 22 (+2)
Ind/Oth 8 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
GP 3 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-)
SD 0 (-1)

[Kevinstat]

I wonder if there will be a 3-seater in the next election where FG, FF and SF only run one candidate apiece and all three candidates exceed quota in the first round?  With the nationwide polling numbers it seems like a possibility, like in a seat where SF runs slightly better than nationwide, and maybe FG slightly worse (so they don't ruin this scenario by running a 2nd candidate).  If the northern ROI European constituency got reduced to a three-seater in the next boundary review (which could already be happening for all I know with the country slated to gain 2 seats with Brexit), I could see such a result occurring there.

[ObserverIE]

I wonder if there will be a 3-seater in the next election where FG, FF and SF only run one candidate apiece and all three candidates exceed quota in the first round?  With the nationwide polling numbers it seems like a possibility, like in a seat where SF runs slightly better than nationwide, and maybe FG slightly worse (so they don't ruin this scenario by running a 2nd candidate).  If the northern ROI European constituency got reduced to a three-seater in the next boundary review (which could already be happening for all I know with the country slated to gain 2 seats with Brexit), I could see such a result occurring there.

Meath West might be close in that while FG (and possibly FF) will run more than one candidate, it's likely that one will be well ahead of the other while Labour have collapsed and there's no significant other presences. I can't think of any other likely candidates.

[Kevinstat]

I wonder if there will be a 3-seater in the next election where FG, FF and SF only run one candidate apiece and all three candidates exceed quota in the first round?  With the nationwide polling numbers it seems like a possibility, like in a seat where SF runs slightly better than nationwide, and maybe FG slightly worse (so they don't ruin this scenario by running a 2nd candidate).  If the northern ROI European constituency got reduced to a three-seater in the next boundary review (which could already be happening for all I know with the country slated to gain 2 seats with Brexit), I could see such a result occurring there.

Meath West might be close in that while FG (and possibly FF) will run more than one candidate, it's likely that one will be well ahead of the other while Labour have collapsed and there's no significant other presences. I can't think of any other likely candidates.

I just looked at the 2016 results and while only the SF candidate made the quota in the first count, the FF candidate was only 0.5% shy and the two FG candidates got 33.5% on the first round and FG has only one incumbent now who got 21.0% in 2016 when there was another FG incumbent running.

I didn't even ask about 4- and 5-seaters as I assumed there would be even less of a chance that 4 candidates would exceed 20% of the vote in the first count or that 5 candidates would exceed 16.666...%.

Any word on a coming review of Ireland's European Parliament constituencies?  Any more interesting speculation in that regard?

[EPG]

I wonder if there will be a 3-seater in the next election where FG, FF and SF only run one candidate apiece and all three candidates exceed quota in the first round?  With the nationwide polling numbers it seems like a possibility, like in a seat where SF runs slightly better than nationwide, and maybe FG slightly worse (so they don't ruin this scenario by running a 2nd candidate).  If the northern ROI European constituency got reduced to a three-seater in the next boundary review (which could already be happening for all I know with the country slated to gain 2 seats with Brexit), I could see such a result occurring there.

Most seats where FF, FG and SF enjoy significant combined strength also exhibit substantial local bias in voting, not that this is absent anywhere in ROI. So the scenario where they win a quota each is hard to imagine, because if there are only three candidates, then some other candidate from a fourth, fifth and sixth town in the area will inevitably stand, and win lots of votes in their hinterland.

E.g. if in Meath West you just have Cassells (FF), English (FG) and Tobin (SF), all from Navan, then someone from Trim, Kells, Castlepollard or Ballivor is going to stand and get a few thousand votes. This is the basic motive to running more candidates than you expect to win, and also the reason why it is so unlikely nowadays to defend such a numerical situation from independents or even Labour (it would have been very imaginable in the 1960s or 70s).

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times (changes since last month):

FG 31 (+1)
FF 24 (+1)
SF 24 (-)
Ind/Oth 12 (-1)
Lab 4 (-)
GP 2 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

[EPG]

Carol Nolan TD is out of Sinn Féin permanently. Ostensibly the pro-life issue, but note that under the proposed boundary changes, she would have been #1 on the list of TDs likely to lose their seats, as the weaker of 2 SF candidates in a 5-seater that's mediocre for them. As a pro-life independent incumbent, a loss is less likely for her, I believe. It's not clear whether she will or will not stand again in Laois-Offaly if the boundary changes are legislated, or Offaly if the Dáil falls before then.

[DC Al Fine]

Mary McAleese compares infant baptism to conscription

It's strange to see Ireland transition to Western woke neoliberalism so rapidly.

[EPG]

Er, have you seen this? "Varadkar backs Madigan over female ordination comments". Lay Irish women criticising the Church radically from within is by no means new, Irish folk history is full of "strong female characters".

FF endorsed Higgins for the second presidential term he promised he would never serve. It looks like the party system is trying to arrange no election in late 2018, but that requires Sinn Féin and the county councils to comply. The rival candidates so far are pretty weak, a bunch of independent non-university Senators, which is the absolute nadir of "elected" office including county councillors. More interesting would be anti-immigration artist Kevin Sharkey, but maybe his declared bid is performance art, it doesn't have political traction or any nominators. Higgins will be 85 if he completes a second term.

[EPG]

(It's almost sad to follow a post about Ulster hero, top secular-and-canon lawyer and best ever FF politician president McAleese with one about part-time poet, Chavez and Castro sympathiser president Higgins)

[Person Man]

Mary McAleese compares infant baptism to conscription

It's strange to see Ireland transition to Western woke neoliberalism so rapidly.

Like A Handmaid's Tale but backwards.

[EPG]

Latest presidential news: names being floated now include even more independent senators, Joan Freeman and (with no evidence) Frances Black (she says no way). Senators Craughwell and Ó Céidigh are said to have mooted a primary: the winner receives the support of both men's backers in the Oireachtas, while the loser tours the country looking for four local council nominations.

It's certainly even more silly than the final season of The West Wing but not yet clear that this rigmarole will yield an election. The likely course of affairs is now that the incumbent announces a re-election campaign this week. Sinn Féin then chooses whether to nominate a candidate. If they do, an election is a certainty anyway, and the independents will nominate another candidate, I think. If not, expect significant pressure to allow an uncontested re-election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mary McAleese compares infant baptism to conscription

It's strange to see Ireland transition to Western woke neoliberalism so rapidly.

Like A Handmaid's Tale but backwards.

I swear, ALATT people who keep bringing it up at every opportunity are making me hate that book/show even as I was initially very interested in it.