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Author Topic: Ireland General Discussion  (Read 277371 times)
EPG
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« Reply #1375 on: July 11, 2018, 01:44:48 PM »

Well, it is profoundly relevant. I mean, it looks like abortion will be illegal in most US states within the next five years.

The incumbent is indeed running. Frances Black may not be running but she did pass an occupied territories boycott through the Senate. Probably one of senators Freeman and Ó Céidigh will also run, I can't over-emphasise how little name recognition these people have, unlike the incumbent or Frances Black who recorded the best-selling album in Irish history.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1376 on: July 15, 2018, 03:51:48 PM »

Mary McAleese compares infant baptism to conscription

It's strange to see Ireland transition to Western woke neoliberalism so rapidly.

As a Methodist, I find this rather insulting. “It’s not the baby’s choice!” doesn’t mean anything - theologically or practically. Still, I admire McAleese a great deal - she’s quite possibly the best European leader in the last several decades, and certainly the best female head of state ever.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1377 on: July 21, 2018, 04:03:35 PM »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 34 (+3)
SF 22 (-2)
FF 21 (-3)
Ind/Oth 14 (+2)
Lab 3 (-1)
GP 2 (-)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

Attacks from the Tory press failing to damage Varadkar, surprisingly enough. Elsewhere, Labour looking like a candidate for the "parties you believe will die soon" thread.
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EPG
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« Reply #1378 on: July 22, 2018, 02:09:37 PM »

Just to highlight the sarcasm for the uninitiated - just in case it's necessary - the typical Fine Gael voter, basically a big farmer or his solicitor daughter, would not actually pay attention to the Murdoch press!
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1379 on: July 23, 2018, 05:00:13 PM »

What I'm getting at is the "rally round the flag" effect that being attacked by The Sun or the likes of Rees-Mogg produces for Varadkar among non-traditional FG voters.

FG has traditionally been the most Anglophile of the parties and Varadkar himself would have fitted quite comfortably into the Cameron/Osborne wing of the Tories before they took a funny turn.
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EPG
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« Reply #1380 on: July 24, 2018, 03:05:59 PM »

But there's no evidence, it's just speculation. Do the Sun or Rees-Mogg have any mindshare in Irish vote intention at all? The Sun in my experience is a foreign paper mainly purchased by people who are already pretty cynical about media, and who may not even be regular voters, with little impact on anyone else. Rees-Mogg falls into a huge category where British politicians are concerned: if you are Irish and know who he is, you are probably well-informed about politics and probably won't decide vote intention on the basis of him.

I'd look to the recent weather, myself, to explain what is going on. Though medium-term, we wouldn't be seeing these numbers if unemployment were still 10% or even 7%.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1381 on: September 15, 2018, 01:00:52 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2018, 01:06:55 PM by ObserverIE »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post (changes since May):

FG 33 (-1)
FF 22 (-3)
Ind/Oth 18 (+5)
SF 14 (-2)
Lab 6 (-)
SD 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 1 (+1)

Ireland Thinks for the Irish Mail on Sunday (changes since April):

FG 29 (-)
FF 24 (-2)
SF 19 (+3)
Ind/Oth 17 (+4)
Lab 6 (+1)
SD 2 (-1)
GP 2 (-2)
SP/SWP 1 (-3)
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EPG
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« Reply #1382 on: September 15, 2018, 02:34:16 PM »

Two narratives: RedC says FG gains from everyone else, while Ireland Thinks says FG and SF consolidate support from the parties on their flanks - but didn't we hear the same message in 2014-15 right before the election disproved it? Either way, intriguing that this suggests "Independents, non-party and others" are back up to their 2016 figures that gave them a record seat total and the balance of power.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1383 on: September 22, 2018, 04:03:54 PM »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times (changes since July):

FG 32 (-2)
FF 25 (+4)
SF 20 (-2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-2)
Lab 5 (+2)
SP/SWP 3 (+2)
GP 3 (+1)
SD 0 (-1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1384 on: September 23, 2018, 08:07:56 PM »

Hey does anybody else remember when Northern Ireland had a government?
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EPG
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« Reply #1385 on: September 24, 2018, 01:18:50 PM »

Hey does anybody else remember when Northern Ireland had a government?

Surely UK general discussion? The two sides split after Brexit and it's hard to see any reconciliation while exit is still being negotiated.
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EPG
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« Reply #1386 on: October 09, 2018, 04:43:21 PM »

Probably not until after BREXIT. There was a budget, but nothing to change anyone's mind, so I think another budget will be agreed.
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EPG
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« Reply #1387 on: October 10, 2018, 02:12:57 PM »

POLITICO ranks just a little above Paul Staines in worthwhile commentator points.

Anyway, for May, there is little downside to an election or fall of government in Ireland. The main division is that Fine Gael, their allies, and Sinn Féin broadly support the government line that the negotiation is UK-EU through Michel Barnier and the Council, while Fianna Fáil imply that Ireland should be an interlocutor between the UK government, NI unionists and the EU. Her best outcome is that a FF-led administration eager on deal-making starts to undermine the EU line and threaten a veto. Her worst is that the current government retains its minority without an election until the end of the talks.

The Independent tends to be a little ebulliently pro-Leo, just as the Times tends to be sniffishly dismissive - half preferred Enda and half prefer the liberal / radical left.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1388 on: October 12, 2018, 08:47:56 AM »

RedC for Paddy Power:

FG 32 (-1)
FF 27 (+5)
Ind/Oth 16 (-2)
SF 14 (-)
Lab 5 (-1)
GP 3 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-1)
Renua 0 (-1)

Presidential election:

Higgins 70
Gallagher 14
Freeman 6
Ní Riada 5
Duffy 4
Casey 1
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EPG
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« Reply #1389 on: October 14, 2018, 04:29:00 AM »

The boring presidential election aside, there will also be a referendum to decriminalise blasphemy on 26 October.

This week, or maybe the last 2 weeks, two government TDs officially left the majority, and three officially joined it, though two of those already were reliable supporters before. This was a lot more fun as an event than the presidential election. One prominent anti-abortion activist quit FG. It is no small irony that his place in the majority is now taken by independent TD Noel Grealish, who votes pro-life and was previously not a reliable government vote.

The other departer was the Minister for Communications, who held a series of meetings with a bidder on a large contract to build broadband infrastructure, without minutes or any official record. Denis Naughten quit before being sacked and declared that he is now fully independent. Whatever about Grealish, the irony levels exceed the scale in that Naughten is being replaced in the majority by Michael Lowry (not a joke). As for the vacant office of Minister for Communications, which could hardly be given to Lowry again, it is filled by a ladder of promotions that ends with the long-awaited junior ministry for Sean Canney, who had been scorned by his allies after losing a coin toss against his fellow independent TD "Boxer" (this is also not a joke).
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1390 on: October 16, 2018, 08:03:09 AM »

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 33 (+2)
FF 25 (-1)
SF 24 (+2)
Ind/Oth 9 (-)
Lab 4 (-1)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1391 on: October 20, 2018, 07:17:18 PM »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 31 (-1)
FF 27 (+2)
SF 19 (-1)
Ind/Oth 11 (-1)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
GP 2 (-1)
SD 0 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 33 (+1)
FF 25 (-2)
Ind/Oth 16 (-)
SF 15 (+1)
Lab 5 (-)
GP 4 (+1)
SD 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 0 (-2)
Renua 0 (-)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1392 on: October 22, 2018, 08:58:34 AM »

The Trots seem very low. Is that because the public recognise them more under their "AAA/PBP" names rather than as the SWP?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1393 on: October 22, 2018, 12:13:19 PM »

The Trots seem very low. Is that because the public recognise them more under their "AAA/PBP" names rather than as the SWP?

The pollsters call them by their assumed names as well - the "SWP/SP" is my own convention - but the "Anti-Austerity Alliance" is now "Solidarity".

We're out of crisis - or at least out of acute crisis - and no-one's tried anything as stupid and cack-handed as the last government's attempted implementation of water charges, so the Trots have less to appeal to.

They've tried going all-in on abortion, but the culture wars have never been a general vote-winner on either side in the absence of other incentives and I would expect their vote (and the votes of most of the small left-wing parties) to slip next time.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1394 on: November 16, 2018, 06:11:40 PM »

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ireland-thong-rape-trial-consent-thisisnotconsent-protests/

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I'd like to believe that if I were in Dublin or Cork, I would be protesting too. This is just insane.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1395 on: November 17, 2018, 07:59:50 PM »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 30 (-1)
FF 27 (-)
SF 23 (+4)
Ind/Oth 11 (-)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 1 (+1)
GP 1 (-1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1396 on: November 24, 2018, 02:50:54 PM »
« Edited: January 26, 2019, 01:32:03 PM by ObserverIE »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 34 (+1)
FF 27 (+2)
Ind/Oth 15 (-1)
SF 13 (-2)
Lab 6 (+1)
GP 3 (-1)
SD 2 (-)
SP/SWP 0 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1397 on: December 15, 2018, 07:28:33 PM »

IMS/Kantar Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent:

FG 32 (-2)
FF 27 (-)
SF 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 10 (+2)
Lab 5 (-)
SD 2 (+2)
SP/SWP 1 (-)
GP 1 (-2)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1398 on: December 22, 2018, 05:18:25 PM »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 31 (+1)
FF 29 (+2)
SF 17 (-6)
Ind/Oth 12 (+1)
Lab 5 (-1)
GP 3 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
SD 2 (+1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1399 on: December 22, 2018, 06:43:20 PM »


Big drop. Any particular reason?
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