№ 5

[HardRCafé]

Since I see no mention of Renzi here:

Arizona's Rep. Rick Renzi to Retire

[Sam Spade]

I'm kinda surprised our Congress watchers didn't notice this one earlier myself.  Even though I was very busy yesterday, I did read Politico and saw this.

I personally don't think Renzi could have won re-election in 2008 with the scandal issues surrounding him and a good challenger against him (I forget her name).  Republicans should have a better shot with him out of the way, though obviously this begins as a toss-up subject to which Republican candidates announce.

That leaves the two other Republican incumbents, who, if the Republican party has sense, should retire b/c of scandal problems - Doolittle and Young.  Republicans prospects would definitely improve in CA-04 with another candidate (presently I have the race as a toss-up and Doolittle may get primaried anyway), and although Young is still unopposed (as I remember), their chances would improve in AK-AL too.

The general rule about elections after wave elections is that the seats most likely to flip are 1) first-term incumbents from the wave action and 2) retirements from the party the wave hit against.  This seat and OH-15 definitely fall under that second category.  IL-14 and IL-18 might fall under that second category, though they do Lean GOP for the time being (IL-18 more than IL-14, but not by that much).  MS-03 is highly unlikely to switch.

There were also a few other interesting bits of news concerning Congressional races yesterday that people here missed.  If I get time today, I'll post them.

[HardRCafé]

Stronger frontrunner for the LaHood seat than for the Hastert seat, though.  Should be interesting.

[minionofmidas]

Basically, this guy does not live in Arizona, hasn't done so for almost 30 years, and should never have been seated by Congress. And that's apart from the scandals.

The district is ultra-interesting, frankly speaking: unique. I'm not entirely sure that Renzi could not have pulled through again, btw. Democratic candidates have a hell of a hard job of uniting very different dem-leaning constituencies here, and keeping up registered Dems' turnout without pissing any of the groups off.

[Padfoot]

I've heard that a Native American woman (whose name escapes me) is considering a run for the Democratic nomination.  According to that ever reliable source Wikipedia, AZ-1 is 22.6% Native American.  IIRC Renzi was very successful in getting a large percentage of votes in this group which usually goes heavily for the Dems.  With the combination of him being gone and the possibility of a Native American on the ballot I think this race may actually have a slight Democratic tilt at the moment.

[minionofmidas]

I've heard that a Native American woman (whose name escapes me) is considering a run for the Democratic nomination.  According to that ever reliable source Wikipedia, AZ-1 is 22.6% Native American.  IIRC Renzi was very successful in getting a large percentage of votes in this group which usually goes heavily for the Dems.  With the combination of him being gone and the possibility of a Native American on the ballot I think this race may actually have a slight Democratic tilt at the moment.

A candidate who plays well with the Navajo doesn't play too well in Flagstaff and Sedona. And vice versa. Mind you, George Cordova almost beat Renzi in 2002 on a "native" strategy (he already won the primary that way), but that was a low-turnout midterm - with Natives casting an unusually high share of the votes.

[Padfoot]

I've heard that a Native American woman (whose name escapes me) is considering a run for the Democratic nomination.  According to that ever reliable source Wikipedia, AZ-1 is 22.6% Native American.  IIRC Renzi was very successful in getting a large percentage of votes in this group which usually goes heavily for the Dems.  With the combination of him being gone and the possibility of a Native American on the ballot I think this race may actually have a slight Democratic tilt at the moment.

A candidate who plays well with the Navajo doesn't play too well in Flagstaff and Sedona. And vice versa. Mind you, George Cordova almost beat Renzi in 2002 on a "native" strategy (he already won the primary that way), but that was a low-turnout midterm - with Natives casting an unusually high share of the votes.

What Democratic constituency in Flagstaff and Sedona is at odds with Native American interests?  I've heard that Democrats have had trouble uniting behind a candidate in this district but I don't think I've ever heard why that is.

[Verily]

I've heard that a Native American woman (whose name escapes me) is considering a run for the Democratic nomination.  According to that ever reliable source Wikipedia, AZ-1 is 22.6% Native American.  IIRC Renzi was very successful in getting a large percentage of votes in this group which usually goes heavily for the Dems.  With the combination of him being gone and the possibility of a Native American on the ballot I think this race may actually have a slight Democratic tilt at the moment.

A candidate who plays well with the Navajo doesn't play too well in Flagstaff and Sedona. And vice versa. Mind you, George Cordova almost beat Renzi in 2002 on a "native" strategy (he already won the primary that way), but that was a low-turnout midterm - with Natives casting an unusually high share of the votes.

What Democratic constituency in Flagstaff and Sedona is at odds with Native American interests?  I've heard that Democrats have had trouble uniting behind a candidate in this district but I don't think I've ever heard why that is.

I would imagine it has to do with tensions over the tourist industry. Is it better for Native American ruins to be tourist sites (Sedona/Flagstaff position) or preserved by the tribes (Navajo position)? But that's just a guess.

[minionofmidas]

No, it's just that different candidates play well. And voters are reached completely differently of course. So issues/sales pitches that might drive up turnout in the one area would leave the other completely stone cold and vice versa.

[Jake]

I've heard that a Native American woman (whose name escapes me) is considering a run for the Democratic nomination.  According to that ever reliable source Wikipedia, AZ-1 is 22.6% Native American.  IIRC Renzi was very successful in getting a large percentage of votes in this group which usually goes heavily for the Dems.  With the combination of him being gone and the possibility of a Native American on the ballot I think this race may actually have a slight Democratic tilt at the moment.

Rich, "cultured" whites voting for a Native, or vice-versa? Good one.

Racial politics extends outside of white-black, black-Hispanic.