Jamaica Election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

TV projections give the opposition JLP 31 seats out of 60, though the PNP haven't accepted defeat yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

boo...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to the BBC, three seats are very tight and will go to a recount.

Anyone know where to find results?

[minionofmidas]

I'll go have a looksee. I have the last election's results somewhere...

[minionofmidas]

Well there's the Anglophone Caribbean's prime newspaper.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well there's the Anglophone Caribbean's prime newspaper.

beat me to it I was having a look at that site after I saw Al's post.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well there's the Anglophone Caribbean's prime newspaper.

Thankee

[minionofmidas]

Well there's the Anglophone Caribbean's prime newspaper.

Thankee

Seems the three uncalled races are uncalled not because they're close - in fact they aren't - but because there's still a lot of precincts outstanding.
And the three closest seats (both in Hanover, one of them miscolored on the interactive map, and St Mary SE) all went to the PNP. Looks like the JLP won fair and square, though very narrowly.
Pop. vote is 50.14 to 49.77. Of course there'd be irregularities - the unholy triangle of St Andrew S (aka Trenchtown), St Andrew SW and Kingston W would be the site of most of them... (but since SW is Portia`s constituency, and Golding actually left his previous seat to take over the White Satan's old stomping grounds... we shouldn't be too surprised). Oh, Patterson's retired too, but his old seat (Westmoreland E, based on Bluefields) is still a pretty safe one. I think he got 73% five years ago when he was the first black pm and the first non-metropolitan-based pm...
I haven't checked yet which seats are gains.

[minionofmidas]

JLP gains from PNP:
S Elizabeth SE, St Ann NW, St Mary W, Clarendon NW, Clarendon N, Portland W

PNP gain from JLP:
Hanover E

Seat distribution by county (relevant only for judicial organization) and parish:
CORNWALL PNP 8, JLP 7
Hanover PNP 2
Wesmoreland PNP 3
Saint James JLP 3 PNP 1
Trelawny JLP 1, PNP 1
Saint Elizabeth JLP 3, PNP 1

MIDDLESEX JLP 14, PNP 12
Saint Ann JLP 3, PNP 1
Saint Mary PNP 2, JLP 1
Manchester PNP 3, JLP 1
Clarendon JLP 5, PNP 1
Saint Catherines PNP 5, JLP 4

SURREY JLP 10, PNP 9
Kingston PNP 2, JLP 1 (separate parish for judicial purposes, united with St Andrew for local government purposes)
Saint Andrew JLP 7, PNP 5
Saint Thomas JLP 1, PNP 1
Portland JLP 1, PNP 1

If unduly provoked, I may produce vote totals by parish and county as well.

EDIT: Well I thought the counties still matter in the judicial organization. Wiki says they're just traditional groupings of parishes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If unduly provoked, I may produce vote totals by parish and county as well.

*unduly provokes*

[minionofmidas]

If unduly provoked, I may produce vote totals by parish and county as well.

*unduly provokes*

Cornwall PNP 50.3 JLP 49.6

Hanover PNP 50.2 JLP 49.8
Westmoreland PNP 48.2 JLP 41.8 (result for Westmoreland C listed as incomplete, but seems fairly complete)
St James JLP 53.6 PNP 46.3 i 0.1
Trelawny JLP 50.5 PNP 49.5
St Elizabeth JLP 51.3 PNP 48.5 i 0.2

Middlesex JLP 51.5 PNP 48.4 i 0.1

Saint Ann JLP 50.6 PNP 49.4
Saint Mary PNP 51.3 JLP 48.7
Manchester PNP 51.0 JLP 49.0
Clarendon JLP 54.5 PNP 45.5
Saint Catherines JLP 52.4 PNP 47.4 i 0.2 (PNP still won more seats, due to big JLP wins in downtown Spanish Town and in the rural west of the parish)

Surrey PNP 51.6 JLP 48.3 i 0.1 (JLP still won more seats. See below.)

Kingston JLP 52.1 PNP 47.8 i 0.1 (PNP still won more seats. Seems the JLP ensured a better turnout in its garrison of W than the PNP did in its E one)
Saint Andrew PNP 53.4 JLP 46.4 i 0.2 (JLP still won more seats. PNP garrisons in central Kingston - the Uptown seats are solid for the JLP, but they do have a PNP vote. Trench Town doesn't have a JLP vote.)
Saint Thomas JLP 51.8 PNP 48.0 i 0.2
Portland PNP 50.7 JLP 49.3

[Harry Hayfield]

Tallies as of 1.30pm BST (7.30am local time) September 4th 2007

JLP 405,215 votes winning 29 seats and leading in 2
PNP 402,275 votes winning 28 seats and leading in 1
Others 700 votes winning 0 seats and leading in 0

Seats still to declare:

Westmorland Central: JLP 45% PNP 55%
St. Ann North East: JLP 54% PNP 46%
Clarendon Central: JLP 67% PNP 33%

Overall Tally (based on uncalled seats)

JLP 30 seats definite (31 estimate)
PNP 28 seats definite (30 estimate)

JLP majority of 1

[Hash]

According to Wiki, the JLP is conservative and economically liberal- correct?

[minionofmidas]

According to Wiki, the JLP is conservative and economically liberal- correct?

Traditionally the JLP is economically rightwing / USpoodling, while the PNP is economically leftwing / Chavist. (Even before that, they were both working class/ pro democracy/ pro independence movements, but the JLP had slightly better relations with the Colonial Office and the old ruling caste than the PNP.) I'd call them both moderately conservative socially.
Back in the 70s and early 80s, Jamaica was on the brink of civil war, but when the PNP came back to power in 1989 (to hold onto it for 18 years) it was on a much moderate platform, and with a few token exceptions it has governed as such. By the 2002 election campaign, the JLP had got the message as well - especially since Edward Seaga retired and Bruce Golding took over the party, it's basically just been trying to be a better PNP. Fascinating place, Jamaica.

[Democratic Hawk]

Why are Jamaican elections characterised by violence?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tallies as of 1.30pm BST (7.30am local time) September 4th 2007

JLP 405,215 votes winning 29 seats and leading in 2
PNP 402,275 votes winning 28 seats and leading in 1
Others 700 votes winning 0 seats and leading in 0

Seats still to declare:

Westmorland Central: JLP 45% PNP 55%
St. Ann North East: JLP 54% PNP 46%
Clarendon Central: JLP 67% PNP 33%

Overall Tally (based on uncalled seats)

JLP 30 seats definite (31 estimate)
PNP 28 seats definite (30 estimate)

JLP majority of 1

It would seem that the JLP won 33 seats, the PNP 27 - giving Golding a majority of 6

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Why are Jamaican elections characterised by violence?

Dave

See the post right above yours really.