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February 25, 2020, 02:49:14 pm
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  100 million votes ?
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Question: Will any US Presidential Candidate get 100 Mio. votes at some point in the future ?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Undecided
 
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Total Voters: 19

Author Topic: 100 million votes ?  (Read 2422 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 08, 2007, 06:24:57 am »

If you look at the statistics from 1980-2004, the number of votes for the Democratic candidate increased from 35.5 Mio. to 59 Mio. or about 2,1% each year. It means that in 2030-35 the Democratic candidate will have 100 Mio. votes if current trends continue. The same more or less is true for a Republican candidate.

But because current trends are not likely to continue and a slowdown is likely I´d say that probably in 2040 or 2050 a candidate will top 100 million votes. What do you think ?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2007, 02:20:26 pm »

Not in any future time I'll be around for.
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Smash255
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2007, 03:28:00 am »

I think it would slow down slightly as by that time you will start seeing more baby boomers die off.  Its possible in 2032 (though that might be a stretch) or 2036, but it would take either a landslide or a very high turnout election (such as 04 to achieve that).  More than likely it would be 2044 at the earliest and possibly not till 2052.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2007, 05:17:25 am »

I think it would slow down slightly as by that time you will start seeing more baby boomers die off.  Its possible in 2032 (though that might be a stretch) or 2036, but it would take either a landslide or a very high turnout election (such as 04 to achieve that).  More than likely it would be 2044 at the earliest and possibly not till 2052.

Around 2050 is probably most likely. A total of 122 Mio. people voted in 2004, 69 Mio. in 1960. Therefore the total number of votes increased by 1,3% each year - along population growth during that time.

Let´s assume a declining 1% growth until the 2052 election, which brings the total number of voters to 197 Mio. in that year.

A candidate in 2052 then has to win with 51% of the vote to get more than 100 Mio. votes ... Wink
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opebo
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2007, 02:11:25 pm »

I think population growth will stay around the current level or could even increase slightly.  I think the assumptions of a leveling off or decline in the growth rate are a bit presumptuous. 

Growth in much of the world is leveling off - including here in Asia - or even verging on declines.  But I think the US can and will keep its growth rate up in a number of ways.

1) birthrates will not decline - we have been through the prosperity-induced decline in birthrates already, but the newly impoverished working class, particularly hispanics, will keep reproducing.

2) Immigration - will remain high, and the owners want it that way as it is better for profits.
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Undisguised Sockpuppet
Straha
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2007, 02:29:14 pm »

We'll probably level off between 700 million to a billion by 2200.
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