100 million votes ?

[Tender Branson]

If you look at the statistics from 1980-2004, the number of votes for the Democratic candidate increased from 35.5 Mio. to 59 Mio. or about 2,1% each year. It means that in 2030-35 the Democratic candidate will have 100 Mio. votes if current trends continue. The same more or less is true for a Republican candidate.

But because current trends are not likely to continue and a slowdown is likely I´d say that probably in 2040 or 2050 a candidate will top 100 million votes. What do you think ?

[Tender Branson]

I think it would slow down slightly as by that time you will start seeing more baby boomers die off.  Its possible in 2032 (though that might be a stretch) or 2036, but it would take either a landslide or a very high turnout election (such as 04 to achieve that).  More than likely it would be 2044 at the earliest and possibly not till 2052.

Around 2050 is probably most likely. A total of 122 Mio. people voted in 2004, 69 Mio. in 1960. Therefore the total number of votes increased by 1,3% each year - along population growth during that time.

Let´s assume a declining 1% growth until the 2052 election, which brings the total number of voters to 197 Mio. in that year.

A candidate in 2052 then has to win with 51% of the vote to get more than 100 Mio. votes ...