French election maps

[minionofmidas]

Some of the Left seats that survived in 1993 are very surprising; did a lot of FN candidates get into the second round or something

 

I think so. Probably fewer than in 97, though.

[minionofmidas]

% vote CPNT in the first round, 2007 legislative election

% vote, CPNT candidates



Once again, those hunters in the Somme with their 6 and 8%, but it's a huge drop considering the CPNT's results here in the 1999 European election and in 2002 Presidential, where in some towns St. Josse took over 50%!


Might as well announce my current projects:
MPF, FN, and Regionalists in 2007, and some Presidential and other electoral maps (I still take requests of course)

Very entertaining pattern of support here - especially when you just look at which seats they contested.

[minionofmidas]

1951 legislative election



National results were PCF 26.93%, RPF 21.62%, SFIO 14.62%, Moderates (right) 14.15%, MRP 12.62%, RGR 10.05%.

Ah, those pre-sunbelt days... what a beautiful sea of red Provence is... sigh.

[minionofmidas]

So what's up with Puy-de-Dome?

[minionofmidas]

What are those uber-left places?

[minionofmidas]

Epic map:

Talk about a "red belt"!

[minionofmidas]

I checked some census states for Saorge (Alpes-Maritimes) and Trigance (Var), and there seems to be nothing that unusual compared to the surroundings. Small villages, relatively mountainous and isolated.

Saorge seems to be quite the looker...





No car access to the built-up area, btw. There's a parking lot underneath the town.

Also, while rural France did of course bleed population back then, this figure needs an explanation really:

1968    1975
508    330

[minionofmidas]

It's on an ancient road across the Alps that was superceded when they built a new, better one further south.
Oh, and Fontan was created from part of Saorge in 1872, explaining the steep drop.

[minionofmidas]

I read the article on the crazy UMP deputy from Moselle who killed his mistress last year, so I was inspired to do this map.

Details!

Jean-Marie Demange was deputy for Thionville and mayor of Thionville from 1995 to 2008. He got depressed after losing to the PS in 2008, he got into violent arguments with his mistress (who left him after a while). In November last year, he went to her apartment, dragged her out on the balcony (in broad daylight) and killed her before committing suicide. A lot of people saw both incidents.

Imagine seeing your MP murdering someone in public.

Meh. I'd have much less difficulty imagining that if I lived a couple of hundred meters further south or east. (This isn't about their politics so much - though my MP is SPD and the other is CDU, both are from unacceptable wings within these parties. It's... just... you know... the notion of that jovial fatso Amann killing people is downright bizarre. The notion of Steinbach killing people, presumably Polish or Czech Communists, is an entirely natural one - I'm almost inclined to say that that's exactly what she'd be doing all day if she thought she'd get away with it.)

[minionofmidas]

Now, Vroom-vroom down the road might.

Why are they calling him that? Just because they can't pronounce his name?

[minionofmidas]

There is a reverse rural/urban split in the Southwest. The rural areas are Socialist, left over from the days of the SFIO (pre-Mitterrand socialists) Napoleon I.

[minionofmidas]

All the non-red bits stick out. Wtf Guayana?

[minionofmidas]

at Paris 1965.

[minionofmidas]

What's with the leftwing vote east of Caen? What's the tradition here?

[minionofmidas]

Grenelle was very much a proletarian quarter until the 50s at least.

[minionofmidas]

Fascinating maps.

[minionofmidas]

Well, yes. Then again, the problem may be right here:

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The pattern of MODEM voters for second rounds the last few years has not exactly been to support UMP en bloc.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, not including them in such a historical graph makes sense... drawing conclusions from the graph for this year's presidential election without taking the factor into account is what doesn't.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, I do care.

[minionofmidas]

What exactly is that graph supposed to prove?

Now, if "selected working-class areas" was instead "PCF's best cantons of 1985"...

[minionofmidas]

That there is a strong negative correlation between strong PCF performances and strong FN performances, which holds true not only for 2010 but also for 1995.

Strongish. It's clearly not that great.

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Yes, that sounds reasonable to me.

[minionofmidas]

FTR, the correlation numbers are:
1995: -0.5557 (strong)
Jospin R2-Le Pen R1 1995: -0.5018 (strong)
2002: -0.484

Yes, that's definitely "strong" rather than "strongish" as far as political correlations go.

Nothing is ever black and white, but pretty clearly the media's favourite theory that the PCF's decline is caused in large part by their voters going FN is fabricated bullsh**t.

Journalists. Voting patterns. Need I say more? Next thing we'll be discussing how journalists have no clue about football support culture. Or how politicians have no clue about voting patterns.

(The issue is ancient. I recently read a book about where the nazi voters came from.)

[minionofmidas]

Heh, your description made me go "wait a sec", look at the key, and laugh hard. I tend to automatically assume that red means decline on maps like that...

[minionofmidas]

Meh, in all my cases the colours are pretty ideological. In an FN change map, I'd use shades of brown for an increase and blue for a decrease. In a UMP change map, I'm pretty sure I'd use red to show decrease.

Yeah, I figured that might be the reason. It does make sense, of course, and I've seen it done before.

[minionofmidas]

Yet there's still much room for improvement my friend.

What's grey? What's black? (Tie and three-way tie?) Where are the Pacific islands, the smaller Atlantic islands, the French abroad?

EDIT: The "grey" is actually the lightest Le Pen shade. My bad.