Two Mormons Running In 2008. Who Wins?
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  Two Mormons Running In 2008. Who Wins?
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Author Topic: Two Mormons Running In 2008. Who Wins?  (Read 3663 times)
Lincoln Republican
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« on: September 15, 2007, 12:40:14 PM »

In 2008, remarkably, both parties nominate Mormons for President.

Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, wins a significant share of the Republican primaries, and is nominated on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention.

The Democratic Conventiion becomes deadlocked between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards.  As a compromise, the Democrats nominate Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada for President.

Please note, Romney and Reid are the only candidates running.  There are no independent or third party candidates running for President.  Romney and Reid are the only choices.   

Who wins?  Please discuss, using maps if you wish.

 
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2007, 01:08:16 PM »

Generic Dem v. Generic Republican.

Reid wins.
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Governor PiT
Robert Stark
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2007, 03:01:50 PM »

Romney.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2007, 06:28:15 PM »

Even with all the great commentary so far, I would like to weigh in. Tongue


I think Reid would most likely win because polling shows Republicans are less likely to vote for a Mormon for president. Logic tells you that as well. Naturally, they are going to vote for Reid, so there would be a great amount of apathy on the Rep side, both in voting and activism. This results in a Reid victory, handily in electoral votes, but just slightly in popular vote.  Maybe a 300-238 (just an estimation) and a 52-48. Narrow victories and even lower than normal voter turnout would be the headlines of the night.
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Reluctant Republican
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2007, 08:12:00 PM »

I'd be really concerned about Reid’s health, since he’s had a few strokes. Depends on who his VP his. I'd support Romney, most likely, though I'd not be too happy about it.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2007, 02:32:08 AM »

Reid would probably eliminate Romney's advantage with Western Mormons and could probably take Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico which together would make Ohio a non-factor assuming Reid would maintain the Kerry 2004 states which I'm sure he would.  As a side note there would probably very low voter turnout in the South since everyone there is either black Christians or white Evangelicals an both those groups are not big Mormon fans.
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2007, 02:38:45 AM »



Harry Reid (D) 302 EV 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 236 EV 48%

This map is assuming that no other third party decides to enter the race. It would be interesting to see how this race between Reid and Romney would go, if a third party was involved. The third party would do very well in the South that's for sure/
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Ebowed
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2007, 03:10:23 AM »

Reid.

Romney could switch back to pro-choice just in time for the election to have one pro-choice candidate, though. Smiley
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Erc
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2007, 08:37:41 AM »

If Reid had won the nomination by the usual process, I'd say Reid, for the reasons that many other people have stated.

However, in this scenario, Reid would be starting his campaign in August, after an extremely divisive Democratic convention, so he starts at a distinct disadvantage.

Reid would definitely be down in the polls after the Republican Convention...whether he could make it up in the next two months is another matter--a lot will depend on the debates, which either candidate has the legitimate chance to win decisively.

In the end, I'll say Romney, but it would be close.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2007, 08:59:04 AM »


Reid: 56% PV, 364 EV
Romney: 44% PV, 174 EV
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gorkay
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2007, 02:11:49 PM »

If the Democrats nominated a Mormon for president and the Republicans didn't, would the Democratic candidate carry Utah?
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2007, 07:46:42 PM »

If Reid had won the nomination by the usual process, I'd say Reid, for the reasons that many other people have stated.

However, in this scenario, Reid would be starting his campaign in August, after an extremely divisive Democratic convention, so he starts at a distinct disadvantage.

Reid would definitely be down in the polls after the Republican Convention...whether he could make it up in the next two months is another matter--a lot will depend on the debates, which either candidate has the legitimate chance to win decisively.

In the end, I'll say Romney, but it would be close.

In speaking and debating skills, as well as in how well they would look on camera, Romney would have it all over Reid in these departments.  Romney looks distinctly Presidential, and he can really turn on the charm for the audience as occasion requires.
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2007, 07:49:31 PM »

If the Democrats nominated a Mormon for president and the Republicans didn't, would the Democratic candidate carry Utah?

Personally, at this time in Presidential politics, I distinctly doubt Utah would vote for a Mormon Democratic candidate over a conservative to moderate Republican candidate for President.  Very interesting scenario though. 
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2007, 04:03:56 PM »

Reid.

Romney could switch back to pro-choice just in time for the election to have one pro-choice candidate, though. Smiley

Eh...Reid is on the fence on abortion, he even voted against Roberts and got a NARAL score of 70%, Romney...well, he will say anything to get a job.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2007, 01:15:44 PM »

If the Democrats nominated a Mormon for president and the Republicans didn't, would the Democratic candidate carry Utah?
No. Except if the Democrats nominated a socially conservative Mormon and the Republicans nominated an openly gay, black, quadriplegic, non-Mormon.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2007, 05:41:44 PM »

If the Democrats nominated a Mormon for president and the Republicans didn't, would the Democratic candidate carry Utah?
No. Except if the Democrats nominated a socially conservative Mormon and the Republicans nominated an openly gay, black, quadriplegic, non-Mormon.
Why do Mormons hate a crippled?
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2007, 09:49:32 PM »

If the Democrats nominated a Mormon for president and the Republicans didn't, would the Democratic candidate carry Utah?
No. Except if the Democrats nominated a socially conservative Mormon and the Republicans nominated an openly gay, black, quadriplegic, non-Mormon.
Why do Mormons hate a crippled?

That statement in the form of a question is about as utterly stupid as the old legal line

"When did you stop beating your wife?" implying, of course, that the individual did beat his wife, when, in fact, the individual may never have beat his wife.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2007, 02:37:14 AM »

Nobody.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2007, 04:24:14 AM »

I don't know... but I do know it would be a horrific inagural ball, nothing but Donnie and Marie and Orange juice.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2007, 12:16:17 PM »

And Ephedrine.
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Undisguised Sockpuppet
Straha
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« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2007, 12:45:02 PM »



Harry Reid (D) 302 EV 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 236 EV 48%

This map is assuming that no other third party decides to enter the race. It would be interesting to see how this race between Reid and Romney would go, if a third party was involved. The third party would do very well in the South that's for sure/
Why does NH go for Romney?
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