Two Mormons Running In 2008. Who Wins?

[Lincoln Republican]

In 2008, remarkably, both parties nominate Mormons for President.

Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, wins a significant share of the Republican primaries, and is nominated on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention.

The Democratic Conventiion becomes deadlocked between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards.  As a compromise, the Democrats nominate Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada for President.

Please note, Romney and Reid are the only candidates running.  There are no independent or third party candidates running for President.  Romney and Reid are the only choices.   

Who wins?  Please discuss, using maps if you wish.

 

[Lincoln Republican]

If Reid had won the nomination by the usual process, I'd say Reid, for the reasons that many other people have stated.

However, in this scenario, Reid would be starting his campaign in August, after an extremely divisive Democratic convention, so he starts at a distinct disadvantage.

Reid would definitely be down in the polls after the Republican Convention...whether he could make it up in the next two months is another matter--a lot will depend on the debates, which either candidate has the legitimate chance to win decisively.

In the end, I'll say Romney, but it would be close.

In speaking and debating skills, as well as in how well they would look on camera, Romney would have it all over Reid in these departments.  Romney looks distinctly Presidential, and he can really turn on the charm for the audience as occasion requires.

[Lincoln Republican]

If the Democrats nominated a Mormon for president and the Republicans didn't, would the Democratic candidate carry Utah?

Personally, at this time in Presidential politics, I distinctly doubt Utah would vote for a Mormon Democratic candidate over a conservative to moderate Republican candidate for President.  Very interesting scenario though. 

[Lincoln Republican]

If the Democrats nominated a Mormon for president and the Republicans didn't, would the Democratic candidate carry Utah?

No. Except if the Democrats nominated a socially conservative Mormon and the Republicans nominated an openly gay, black, quadriplegic, non-Mormon.

Why do Mormons hate a crippled?

That statement in the form of a question is about as utterly stupid as the old legal line

"When did you stop beating your wife?" implying, of course, that the individual did beat his wife, when, in fact, the individual may never have beat his wife.