Voting Trends By 2016

[TheWildCard]

wishful thinking I know.

That looks so wierd.... I don't think that could ever reasonably happen.

Siege

Thanks a lot...

Anyway its mostly based on if the hispanic vote becomes bigger and trends conservitive and the Democrats become a bit more populist.

[John Dibble]

By 2016 I would hope the Libertarians would control a state. We'll see.

[Siege40]

By 2016 I would hope the Libertarians would control a state. We'll see.

What state do you think they could win?

Siege

[John Dibble]

By 2016 I would hope the Libertarians would control a state. We'll see.

What state do you think they could win?

Siege

If I had to venture a guess I would say Texas or Florida.

I'm told we're developing a strong powerbase in Texas, so that might be a possibility.

Florida is a guess because we have a chance of winning a Congressional race(federal, not state). District 21 - Libertarian Frank J Gonzalez versus Republican incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart, no Democrat candidate. Gonzalez has a lot going for him - Diaz-Balart has run unopposed for 5 terms(so his campaign skills may be rusty or he'll be overconfident and not campaign at all) and he's pissed off the Cubans(55% of the district) by imposing greater restrictions on their ability to visit and send money to their families still in Cuba. So, if Gonzalez succeeds it gets a Libertarian into federal office, and may influence the neighboring districts as well. Here's his site if you're interested: http://www.politicalgateway.com/cand.php?id=40&page=cand

Other states, I'd guess maybe California(we have a good deal of officials there), but that would be a long-shot, or perhaps Georgia(few officials, but a high percentage of Georgians voted Libertarian in the last election).

[Brambila]

[??????????]

For all we know this could be the map :

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My prediction: All your predictions are wrong

[Siege40]

My prediction: All your predictions are wrong

Any thoughts Al on what the map might look like?

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My prediction: All your predictions are wrong

Any thoughts Al on what the map might look like?

Siege

Aha... but then I'd be breaking my own rule...

[Siege40]

My prediction: All your predictions are wrong

Any thoughts Al on what the map might look like?

Siege

Aha... but then I'd be breaking my own rule...

Come on Al, just a bit of fun.

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My prediction: All your predictions are wrong

Any thoughts Al on what the map might look like?

Siege

Aha... but then I'd be breaking my own rule...

Come on Al, just a bit of fun.

Siege

Hmmm... problem with trends is that they change so often...
A wild guess:

NM, AZ, NV et al don't trend Dem because the GOP puts a lot of work into appealing to Hispanic voters. There is then a backlash amoung poorer whites further east.

[Siege40]

My prediction: All your predictions are wrong

Any thoughts Al on what the map might look like?

Siege

Aha... but then I'd be breaking my own rule...

Come on Al, just a bit of fun.

Siege

Hmmm... problem with trends is that they change so often...
A wild guess:

NM, AZ, NV et al don't trend Dem because the GOP puts a lot of work into appealing to Hispanic voters. There is then a backlash amoung poorer whites further east.

By further East do you mean the Atlantic Coast, or all of the South and maybe the Great Plains too?

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My prediction: All your predictions are wrong

Any thoughts Al on what the map might look like?

Siege

Aha... but then I'd be breaking my own rule...

Come on Al, just a bit of fun.

Siege

Hmmm... problem with trends is that they change so often...
A wild guess:

NM, AZ, NV et al don't trend Dem because the GOP puts a lot of work into appealing to Hispanic voters. There is then a backlash amoung poorer whites further east.

By further East do you mean the Atlantic Coast, or all of the South and maybe the Great Plains too?

Siege

Not sure... but it'd certainly produce a backlash

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

By 2016 I would hope the Libertarians would control a state. We'll see.

What state do you think they could win?

Siege

If I had to venture a guess I would say Texas or Florida.

I'm told we're developing a strong powerbase in Texas, so that might be a possibility.

How could you forget about New Hampshire?  Or are you assuming it will simply leave the Union?

Florida and Texas have too many religious conservatives to ever go Lib.  The states most likely to turn yellow:

1. New Hampshire
2. Alaska
3. Idaho
4. Nevada
5. Montana
6. Wyoming
7. Oregon

The only double-digit state I could see ever going yellow would be Wisconsin, based on the strong showing Ed Thompson had in 2002.  Although Ed was helped by name recognition, and a general distaste for both Doyle and McCallum.  I'm not sure if that's a sign of LP life in the state.

This also would only happen under the following circumstances:
1. The Republicans get increasingly Populist (they are moving in that direction)
2. The Democrats get increasingly Left-Liberal.
3. The LP moderates a lot of its positions.
4. The health care problem solves itself.

In this case, the LP moves into the economic Right vacuum that the Republicans create, and attract lots of Western-Wing Republicans.  They may even attract some East-Coast moderates, making them much stronger in New Jersey and Connecticut - but not strong enough ever to "take over" those states.

Actually, in this scenario, the LP and Republicans will probably merge, since this would leave the Democrats in full control of Washington.  Two parties are simply how this country's political system runs.

[No more McShame]

I saw a poll that showed Badnarick polling 3% in Nevada, significant for a LP candidate.  Not sure of he makes a strong showing in any other states.  I do see a stronger LP by 2016.

[12th Doctor]

I think everyone here needs some lessons in how to not be one dimensional thinkers.

1) No matter who wins this election, both parties will try to expand their base.  The flaws of the current (de?)allignment are looming, glaring and numerous.  That fact that there are fewer toss-up states in this election than any in recent memory proves this fact.  No party can legitamently hope to get more than 360 EV's.  The Republicans cannot hope to win more than two states in New England and the Democrats cannot hope to win More than one of the plains states (Colorado)  Nor more than one state south of the Mason-Dixon (Florida).  This leaves both parties little room for loss anywhere and is a clear signal that both parties need to expand.

2) The Republicans are making clear efforts to gain an even footing with the Hispanic vote.  If they succeed, this puts Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada into the Bush colum; California and New Jersey would be competitive again and Texas would remain safely in with the Republicans.  As a side note, Bush does seem to be polling better among Hispanics than in 2000.

3) Everything depends on this race.  Whoever wins will have a headstart in the effort to expand the party.  However, by 2016-2020, both parties will have sufficently restructured.

My Prediction:  More competetive states.  Less of a GOP lock on the South.  Less of a Dem lock on the Northeast.  Midwest remains very competitive.

[12th Doctor]

Also, if the 3rd parties ever become very successful, the two major parties will simply adopt many of their possitions.

[Donovan]

I was thinking about voting patterns and what the future may hold. So, I've compiled what I think voting trends may look like in the not too distant future.

Democratic Locks:
HI, CA, NM, IL, NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, DC

Republican Locks:
ID MT WY UT ND SD NE KS OK LA MS AL AK GA SC KY ID

Soft Democratic: (States which tend to go democratic but tend to be a little closer than most)
AZ NV MN WI MI FL WA ME IA MD DE

Soft Republican:
CO, TN, NC, VA, WV, AR, NH, TX

Tossups: (Mainly cause I don't know where they're going)
OH, MO, PA

The reasons most of these states have moved around is that I believe that Latinos will increase rapidly in the population in the Southwestern states, (CA, NV, AZ, NM, TX) softening up Republican strength there. Also I think the Republicans will start to appeal to the mid-west states (OH, PA,) to try and commensate.

I'm sure there's a lot of holes in my thoughts, but I just wanted to through that out there.

Siege

This may be a shock to you. But most likely by 2016, the 1st Congressional District of Idaho, of only 2, will be 50% Democrat and 50% Republican. Why? Because of the increasing number of crimes committed by the republican party, fraud, all sorts of stuff, and the huge growing population of Hispanics in the Boise Area.

Until 1992 the first Congressional District, of only two in the state, was Democratic. It changed between 1988-1994 because a large conservative population, about 13-20,000, moved from Sand Diego to Couer d' Alene, in the norther part of the state. Now that growth is slowing down as the area's costs of living is rising very fast and the southern part of the district is increasing with Hispanics that constitute the majority of the growth in ADA. Democrats for the first time won the Mayor seat of Boise two years ago.

Also, the popular US Congressman, Butch Otter, will be running for Governor in 2006, a sure win, making the seat open.

[No more McShame]

For all we know this could be the map :

That's a scary map.......Idaho is with California.

Maybe if all the liberals in Cali moved to Arizona and Oregon and left a Republican stronghold in Cali

[Donovan]

For all we know this could be the map :

That's a scary map.......Idaho is with California.

Yes, it would have the same probability of you ever being President

Maybe if all the liberals in Cali moved to Arizona and Oregon and left a Republican stronghold in Cali

[The Free North]

This was entertaining to read

[Consciously Unconscious]

This was entertaining to read

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

...and also 10 years old. Why bump?

[ElectionsGuy]

...and also 10 years old. Why bump?

Well, the next presidential election is 2016, right? And by 2014 it gives us an idea of how accurate the former predictions were based on that time of perception.

[Flake]

...and also 10 years old. Why bump?

Well, the next presidential election is 2016, right? And by 2014 it gives us an idea of how accurate the former predictions were based on that time of perception.

I'm surprised how accurate HockeyDude's prediction is so far, I mean there are a few more states to go to the Republicans, and a few to the Democrats, but really accurate considering it was 12 years before the election.