Is North Carolina the next Virginia?

[MarkWarner08]

http://www.joelkotkin.com/Commentary/NJ%20Is%20North%20Carolina%20the%20New%20Virginia.htm

Democrats picked up one House seat in NC, and nearly a second, in 2006. They've also controlled the governorship for over a decade and they have a lock on most statewide offices. The Research Triangle, which attracts well-educated pragmatic indepedent voters, has had a moderating effect on the rest of the state. Whether or not the old Tobacco Road still dominates North Carolina demographically and electorally is key to understanding the shifts in North Carolina politics.

[Smash255]

It won't move as quickly as VA & has a bit further to go than VA, but I think NC will slowly move in a more Democratic direction.  Outside of Edwards or a massive landslide its out of the question for 08 for the Dems to win.  however, by 2012 a solid but not huge Dem victory nationally (5 points or so) the Dems could take the state and 2016 it would probably move toward a battleground state, with a small GOP edge in a 50/50 election (similar to what VA looks to be in 2008)

[Verily]

Much of the Democratic strength in North Carolina in analogous to Arkansas--at the state level, the Democrats never lost control, so to say that they're "regaining" ground as the Democrats truly are in Virginia is to misunderstand the situation. Yes, North Carolina is (very slowly) trending towards the Democrats on the Presidential level, but at the level of Senate and Governor the Democrats have generally always been favored, and certainly so at the level of House and state legislature.

[Padfoot]

The entire South Atlantic Coast is currently undergoing a population boom that includes an influx of voters who are not all originally from the South.  This is in turn causing a moderating effect on the politics of these states that will likely make all of them more competitive in the years to come.  I think that 10-20 years from now North Carolina and Virginia could be the battleground that Ohio currently is especially as their electoral power increases and Ohio's decreases.

[WalterMitty]

Much of the Democratic strength in North Carolina in analogous to Arkansas--at the state level, the Democrats never lost control, so to say that they're "regaining" ground as the Democrats truly are in Virginia is to misunderstand the situation. Yes, North Carolina is (very slowly) trending towards the Democrats on the Presidential level, but at the level of Senate and Governor the Democrats have generally always been favored, and certainly so at the level of House and state legislature.

the gop did control the nc state house for a short time.

[ottermax]

I think the entire South shifted to the GOP in recent decades, but some states (i.e. Virginia) have already started moving back to the Democrats, but because they are becoming ideologically different, not partisan different. Same with N.C. and Georgia. More people are coming from elsewhere and bringing slightly more liberal leanings with them. Virginia is just seeing it faster because it has a larger influx of liberals. I think this will happen in most urban areas of the South (Dallas, Houston, Tampa, Atlanta), where there is growth. However, more rural states (Alabama, Mississippi) will continue to trend Republican because there is no growth.

[Smash255]

I think the entire South shifted to the GOP in recent decades, but some states (i.e. Virginia) have already started moving back to the Democrats, but because they are becoming ideologically different, not partisan different. Same with N.C. and Georgia. More people are coming from elsewhere and bringing slightly more liberal leanings with them. Virginia is just seeing it faster because it has a larger influx of liberals. I think this will happen in most urban areas of the South (Dallas, Houston, Tampa, Atlanta), where there is growth. However, more rural states (Alabama, Mississippi) will continue to trend Republican because there is no growth.

I don't think Mississippi and Alabama will continue to trend Republican.  Now the Republicans may make some more gains on the local level in those states as those who have become more Republican on the national level become more GOP on the local level, but their really isn't that much more for the GOP to grow on the national level in Alabama and Mississippi.   Reason being the racially divided nature of the voting in those two states especially on the national level.  It doesn't look like the Republicans will make any inroads with African Americans anytime soon, and their really isn't much more the GOP can gain with white voters in Mississippi and Alabama because virtually all of them (with the exception of Harry) are voting Republican anyway.

[??????????]

Virginia > North Carolina, no matter political thought.

[opebo]

Those who are making the point that North Carolina (and others) never really 'left' the Democratic Party, especially on the local level, are muddying the waters a bit.  Keep in mind that the Democratic Party that has held on in places like this is a bit of an anacronism, and that the 'new Democrats' that are slowly but surely tipping these states towards toss-up status are very different from those old ones. 

Northern Virginia and the 'Research Triangle' contain this new type - fickle, middle class, suburban, educated - it would be hard to imagine a more different sort of voter from the old blue or yellow dogs.  Thus we can say that the character of these states is changing dramatically, just as did the Democratic Party they left and to which they are returning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No. The area around Durham is not typical of the state at large in any way at all; the usual Southern pattern of fast-growing areas being Republican strongholds is true in most of North Carolina as well.

[WalterMitty]

with all of this talk of the rtp, let me point out that one of the fastest growing counties in the triangle area is johnston county.  it is quickly losing its rural characteristics and becoming a suburban county.

id also like to point out it was the only county (that im aware of off the top of my head) that flipped from easley in 2000 to ballantine in 2004.

so much for 'trending democrat'...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The following counties flipped to Easley:

Alamance
Mecklenburg
Rutherford
Polk
Transylvania
Ashe
Surry

The following flipped to Ballantine:

Currituck
Johnston

[WalterMitty]

The following counties flipped to Easley:

Alamance
Mecklenburg
Rutherford
Polk
Transylvania
Ashe
Surry

The following flipped to Ballantine:

Currituck
Johnston

currituck is a head scratcher.

i cant explain that. 

maybe there has been an influx of retirees?  i know it is in the northeastern part of the state, which is still quite poor and under-developed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its growth rate in 2004 was 4.9%.

[WalterMitty]

Its growth rate in 2004 was 4.9%.

yeah those coastal counties are growing by leaps and bounds.

i remember in the 90s dare county had some explosive growth. 

[StateBoiler]

The following counties flipped to Easley:

Alamance
Mecklenburg
Rutherford
Polk
Transylvania
Ashe
Surry

The following flipped to Ballantine:

Currituck
Johnston

currituck is a head scratcher.

i cant explain that. 

maybe there has been an influx of retirees?  i know it is in the northeastern part of the state, which is still quite poor and under-developed.

Currituck is where Blackwater is based, fyi.

Currituck is becoming a bedroom community of sorts for people that work in Norfolk. It's only 30 miles away.

The people that run and control the state-level Democratic Party are not liberal at all. Which is one reason why there is a high level of ticket splitting between federal races and state races. Plus, as I've said before, the state GOP are f***ing idiots. There are some liberals, mainly areas like Chapel Hill due to the university, but they're the minority. There's also the blacks that will always be Democrat, but by and large the state party are the southern Democrat type. The blacks and liberals never win the primaries statewide.

There has been a huge influx of people into the Triangle (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill), the Triad (Greensboro- Winston-Salem -High Point), and the Charlotte area. I imagine in the future we might see some internal friction between these new transplants that think Democrats should be like the Democrats they have back home, versus the Democrats that have been here forever.