Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05
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  Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #25 on: October 06, 2007, 04:48:11 PM »

A Republican picking up this seat will be good press for them, but as far as this district is concerned it's irrelevant.  Any Republican who takes this district in a special election is very likely NOT to hold it in 2008.

That's very true.  If Ogonowski does win, he can expect to have a strong Democratic opponent running against him before he is even sworn into office. 
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #26 on: October 06, 2007, 05:38:05 PM »

A Republican picking up this seat will be good press for them, but as far as this district is concerned it's irrelevant.  Any Republican who takes this district in a special election is very likely NOT to hold it in 2008.

That's very true.  If Ogonowski does win, he can expect to have a strong Democratic opponent running against him before he is even sworn into office. 

Eileen Donoghue.  It has been stated on another thread about this race that Donoghue supporters are either going to not turnout to vote for Tsongas, or vote for Ogonowski, in order to allow Donoghue to run against him in 2008. 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #27 on: October 06, 2007, 07:22:22 PM »

A Republican picking up this seat will be good press for them, but as far as this district is concerned it's irrelevant.  Any Republican who takes this district in a special election is very likely NOT to hold it in 2008.

That's very true.  If Ogonowski does win, he can expect to have a strong Democratic opponent running against him before he is even sworn into office. 

Eileen Donoghue.  It has been stated on another thread about this race that Donoghue supporters are either going to not turnout to vote for Tsongas, or vote for Ogonowski, in order to allow Donoghue to run against him in 2008. 

Exactly.  Donoghue will almost be a shoo-in for this seat in 2008 if Ogonowski wins. 
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #28 on: October 07, 2007, 12:35:45 AM »

Donoghue will almost be a shoo-in for this seat in 2008 if Ogonowski wins. 

Donoghue has to make it past a Democratic Primary first; one in which Tsongas (and a number of others) may very well run again.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #29 on: October 07, 2007, 01:06:06 AM »

Donoghue will almost be a shoo-in for this seat in 2008 if Ogonowski wins. 

Donoghue has to make it past a Democratic Primary first; one in which Tsongas (and a number of others) may very well run again.

If Tsongas actually managed to lose this race, I don't think she would want to embarass herself by running again.  Any Democrat who doesn't win this seat easily obviously has serious problems. 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #30 on: October 07, 2007, 09:37:19 AM »

No, he was lazy.  Whenever you win your primary (although it was hotly contested) by only 4% and your opponent literally destroys his primary opponent, you can't put the race in safe, when the PVI is only about +8 to +9 Dem.

Thing is, Ogonowski was virtually unopposed in the Republican primary, as his opponent didn't raise any money. Tsongas had three or four competitors to deal with. I don't think you can really point to the primary performance of Ogonowski and Tsongas and make any conclusions about the general.

I think it's going to be close for Massachusetts, but the sheer Democratic strength of the district will help Tsongas win by about 8-10 points. Say, 53-44 Tsongas, with the rest going to the minor party candidates.
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« Reply #31 on: October 07, 2007, 12:39:57 PM »

when do they vote?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #32 on: October 07, 2007, 01:11:12 PM »


October 16th.
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« Reply #33 on: October 07, 2007, 04:37:53 PM »

No, he was lazy.  Whenever you win your primary (although it was hotly contested) by only 4% and your opponent literally destroys his primary opponent, you can't put the race in safe, when the PVI is only about +8 to +9 Dem.

Thing is, Ogonowski was virtually unopposed in the Republican primary, as his opponent didn't raise any money. Tsongas had three or four competitors to deal with. I don't think you can really point to the primary performance of Ogonowski and Tsongas and make any conclusions about the general.

I think it's going to be close for Massachusetts, but the sheer Democratic strength of the district will help Tsongas win by about 8-10 points. Say, 53-44 Tsongas, with the rest going to the minor party candidates.

While it's fair to ignore the GOP primary results—there was no real race there, and the Mass GOP has a history of going all out to stop gadfly candidates from making the ballot in special election races when they have a real candidate running.

Still, I do think it's fair to look at the fractured Dem primary where Tsongas got a mere 35% of the vote, and see that as a potential weakness.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #34 on: October 08, 2007, 12:33:44 AM »

This has got to be an ultimate low for the Ogonowski campaign.  http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=8977.  It looks like hes got the NRCC doing his dirty work for him now. 
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #35 on: October 08, 2007, 09:19:02 AM »

This has got to be an ultimate low for the Ogonowski campaign.  http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=8977.  It looks like hes got the NRCC doing his dirty work for him now. 

If that backfires he can thank the NRCC for losing MA-5 for him. 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #36 on: October 08, 2007, 02:00:56 PM »

MA-5 is rich suburbs plus old industrial cities, yes?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #37 on: October 08, 2007, 02:08:38 PM »

District 5
 56,217 median income in 1999 (dollars) - households
 67,846 - families
 27,215 per capita income in 1999 (dollars)
 46,853 median earnings in 1999 of full-time, year-round workers (dollars) - male
 32,545 - female
 8.9 income in 1999 below poverty level (percent of population for whom poverty status is determined) - all ages
 11.5 - related children under 18 years
 8.9 - 65 years and over
 6.7 - percent of families
 
COUNTY
Essex County (part)
 44,992
 53,391
 22,312
 40,855
 30,502
 13.3
 18.1
 11.7
 10.6
 
Middlesex County (part)
 62,230
 74,243
 29,431
 49,879
 34,165
 6.9
 8.6
 7.3
 4.9
 
Worcester County (part)
 83,498
 89,265
 32,418
 61,933
 41,761
 2.9
 1.9
 8.6
 2.1
 
COUNTY SUBDIVISION
 
Acton town, Middlesex County
 91,624
 108,189
 41,901
 77,371
 47,113
 2.9
 2.4
 3.3
 1.7
 
Andover town, Essex County
 87,683
 104,820
 41,133
 78,291
 44,292
 3.9
 3.7
 6.8
 2.5
 
Ayer town, Middlesex County
 46,619
 61,968
 26,400
 44,092
 32,418
 10.8
 9.5
 11.7
 6.1
 
Berlin town, Worcester County
 65,667
 76,419
 28,915
 50,711
 32,330
 3.9
 6.5
 2.7
 2.1
 
Billerica town, Middlesex County
 67,799
 72,102
 24,953
 47,014
 33,862
 3.8
 4.5
 4.3
 2.8
 
Bolton town, Worcester County
 102,798
 108,967
 42,542
 79,167
 50,278
 1.8
 1.5
 3.5
 1.1
 
Boxborough town, Middlesex County
 87,618
 110,572
 40,794
 72,414
 47,008
 2.8
 3.8
 0.0
 1.5
 
Carlisle town, Middlesex County
 129,811
 142,350
 59,559
 100,000+
 55,395
 2.4
 2.6
 0.0
 1.5
 
Chelmsford town, Middlesex County
 70,207
 82,676
 30,465
 56,493
 38,927
 2.8
 3.2
 5.3
 2.0
 
Concord town, Middlesex County
 95,897
 115,839
 51,477
 82,374
 47,739
 3.9
 3.7
 3.3
 2.1
 
Dracut town, Middlesex County
 57,676
 65,633
 23,750
 41,873
 31,396
 3.7
 3.2
 8.3
 2.7
 
Dunstable town, Middlesex County
 86,633
 92,270
 30,608
 61,425
 39,946
 1.9
 2.4
 2.1
 2.1
 
Groton town, Middlesex County
 82,869
 92,014
 33,877
 63,889
 41,581
 4.0
 3.8
 0.0
 2.5
 
Harvard town, Worcester County
 107,934
 119,352
 40,867
 90,937
 49,318
 2.0
 0.7
 7.1
 0.5
 
Haverhill city, Essex County
 49,833
 59,772
 23,280
 41,197
 31,779
 9.1
 12.3
 10.0
 7.0
 
Hudson town, Middlesex County
 58,549
 70,145
 26,679
 45,504
 35,207
 4.5
 3.8
 8.7
 2.7
 
Lancaster town, Worcester County
 60,752
 66,490
 21,010
 42,367
 35,417
 4.1
 1.5
 14.0
 4.4
 
Lawrence city, Essex County
 27,983
 31,809
 13,360
 27,772
 23,137
 24.3
 31.7
 20.1
 21.2
 
Littleton town, Middlesex County
 71,384
 83,365
 31,070
 54,097
 43,966
 3.6
 1.9
 5.2
 2.4
 
Lowell city, Middlesex County
 39,192
 45,901
 17,557
 33,554
 27,399
 16.8
 23.2
 14.0
 13.6
 
Maynard town, Middlesex County
 60,812
 71,875
 27,016
 49,279
 36,609
 5.6
 7.4
 6.0
 3.8
 
Methuen city, Essex County
 49,627
 59,831
 22,305
 41,693
 31,864
 7.4
 9.7
 7.7
 5.8
 
Shirley town, Middlesex County
 53,344
 66,250
 20,556
 42,078
 32,130
 3.3
 2.1
 4.4
 1.9
 
Stow town, Middlesex County
 96,290
 102,530
 38,260
 75,758
 40,911
 2.7
 1.6
 1.7
 1.5
 
Sudbury town, Middlesex County
 118,579
 130,399
 53,285
 98,593
 47,500
 2.8
 3.9
 4.8
 2.1
 
Tewksbury town, Middlesex County
 68,800
 76,443
 27,031
 50,296
 33,918
 3.8
 2.4
 5.3
 1.9
 
Tyngsborough town, Middlesex County
 69,818
 78,680
 27,249
 46,942
 33,396
 4.7
 6.2
 5.6
 4.0
 
Wayland town (part), Middlesex County
 111,187
 126,973
 58,714
 99,560
 52,125
 2.7
 2.5
 2.5
 2.3
 
Westford town, Middlesex County
 98,272
 104,029
 37,979
 77,417
 45,095
 1.7
 2.2
 1.0
 1.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
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« Reply #38 on: October 08, 2007, 02:58:50 PM »

MA-5 is rich suburbs plus old industrial cities, yes?

Not quite "rich" suburbs. Those are mostly north and south of Boston; MA-05 lies to the west and northwest. Not poor, certainly; perhaps towards the upper end of middle class.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #39 on: October 08, 2007, 04:08:20 PM »

This has got to be an ultimate low for the Ogonowski campaign.  http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=8977.  It looks like hes got the NRCC doing his dirty work for him now. 

Oh, no, no, no, no, no.  I recognize the style of that mailer.

It has Mass GOP written all over it.
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« Reply #40 on: October 08, 2007, 04:19:23 PM »

MA-5 is rich suburbs plus old industrial cities, yes?

Not quite "rich" suburbs. Those are mostly north and south of Boston; MA-05 lies to the west and northwest. Not poor, certainly; perhaps towards the upper end of middle class.

I'd say the absolute cream of the crop so far as pricey Boston suburbs go are (select areas of) Newton, Wellesley, and Weston, none of which are in the district.  Still, Wayland, Concord, and Sudbury are almost worth mentioning in the same breath.  I sure as hell couldn't afford to live there, and I've got a half million dollar damn condo.

Not too much of the area has a GOP State Rep right now (especially following the unfortunate loss of Sudbury's Sue Pope in 2006), but this area has been well represented by Republicans off and on over the last few decades.  (Paul Celluci was a State Senator from Hudson.)  Romney heavily (and unsuccessfully) targeted the area for GOP turnovers in 2004, though none of the seats were vacant.

The towns in the north have an exurban charecter and tend to be far more Republican than average—places like Chelmsford are where Boston commuters go when they're looking for a housing "bargain."  (At least, it looks like a bargain compared to Wellesley and Weston.)  Something like how NYC commuting "bargain hunters" moved out to PA-15.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #41 on: October 08, 2007, 04:20:17 PM »

Wow.

Wow.

Great way to win over Democrats and liberal/moderate independents, there.

Forget my previous forecast, it'll be Tsongas by double-digits.

Good job, Mass GOP.
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« Reply #42 on: October 09, 2007, 10:41:17 AM »

In case anyone cares, I crunched the 2006 numbers for MA-05.  The numbers are not entirely exact (because of Wayland being broken up), but are damn close.

2006 GUBERNATORIAL
D. Patrick (D) 50.7% (55.7% statewide)
K. Healey (R) 40.4% (35.3% statewide)
C. Mihos (I)  7.0% (7.0% statewide)
G. Ross (G) 1.9% (1.9% statewide)


2006 SENATE
T. Kennedy (D) 65.3% (69.3% statewide)
K. Chase (R) 34.7% (30.6% statewide)
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #43 on: October 10, 2007, 08:08:07 AM »

By Aaron Blake
October 10, 2007

With less than a week to go and a special-election victory in sight, Republican Jim Ogonowski has put his family’s Sept. 11, 2001, tragedy front and center in his campaign, inserting a wild card into his upset bid in Massachusetts’s 5th district.

On Tuesday, his campaign launched a new ad that features a still shot of a plane about to strike the World Trade Center and talks about Ogonowski’s support for his brother’s family after his brother died that day.

The ad’s launch signifies how far Ogonowski has come but also circles back to the issue that initially helped him stand out in the race to replace former Rep. Marty Meehan (D).

Shortly after Ogonowski announced his candidacy for the special election in April, he declared that his brother’s death in the 2001 terrorist attacks would play a role but would not be “at the forefront” of his campaign.

Despite the state’s famously liberal leanings, Tuesday’s outcome is up in the air. Democratic nominee Niki Tsongas has enlisted the help of numerous party leaders, including former President Bill Clinton and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), and has directly engaged Ogonowski in recent days, comparing their stances on issues.

Both are signs of a close race, and Democrats are conceding that an upset is possible.

The ad is likely to cause a stir. It comes less than two months after a pro-Iraq war group, Freedom’s Watch, used a strikingly similar image in an ad pleading with viewers to support the war effort.

Both the Freedom’s Watch ad and the Ogonowski ad were created by a firm called Jamestown Associates.

Such subjects are generally considered taboo, and images of Sept. 11 weren’t used much, if at all, in 2006.

Last year, Republicans and some Democrats objected vehemently to a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Internet ad that featured flag-draped coffins. The DCCC pulled the ad.

Ogonowski said Tuesday that including the Sept. 11 image wasn’t a difficult decision.

“That’s part of history, no different than seeing the images of Pearl Harbor,” he said. “It was just something that I had to think about — how we wanted to portray it. I think it adequately represents what happened to us that day.”

David Wasserman, a House race analyst with The Cook Political Report, said Ogonowski is wading into “uncharted territory” and that the move is risky.

“His aim is clearly to emphasize his efforts to go to bat for his family with the federal government after 9/11, but some voters will still be confused: the ad seems to paint Jim Ogonowski as a good consoler rather than a good leader,” Wasserman said. “That’s a very unusual appeal.”
Wasserman said Ogonowski is “within five yards” of winning, but that the last five will be extremely difficult to get.

Ogonowski said in May that he had only been talking about Sept. 11 — the day his brother piloted a plane that was hijacked and flown into a World Trade Center tower — when he was asked about it.

He told The Hill that Sept. 11 would be “inter-related with some other aspects of the campaign,” one example being when the Iraq war is discussed.

“It will not be the forefront of my campaign, but it is part of who I am today,” he said.

Unlike Freedom’s Watch, Ogonowski is somewhat shielded from criticism for the move because of his personal connection to the events. But Democrats have yet to speak out against either Ogonowski or Freedom’s Watch for their use of the Sept. 11 imagery, and Tsongas’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Massachusetts Democratic consultant Michael Goldman said the ad is an extension of Ogonowski’s message to run as an “affable guy.”

“I knew people casually who were in that building. … It’s got to be awful,” Goldman said. “But races for Congress are not about who we feel badly about. It’s who best understands, cares about and can do something for me and my family.”

To Ogonowski, though, the ad is not about people feeling sorry for him as much as it is about his character and what kind of representative he would be.

“When my family needed me most, I stepped up,” he said. “I was thrust into a different role that day. … I’m proud of what I did there.”
 
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/gopcandidate-in-mass.-special-election-rolls-dice-on-9/11-imagery-2007-10-10.html
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #44 on: October 10, 2007, 03:20:35 PM »

This isn't his first ad that mentions 9/11.  Most of them have already.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #45 on: October 10, 2007, 03:42:35 PM »

This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #46 on: October 10, 2007, 04:37:50 PM »

This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 

It's about the death of his brother, and Ogonowski's subsequent leadership in stepping up for his family and his country.  "Disgusting" is not a word that comes to mind for me here.

Is there similar outrage over Carolyn McCarthy?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #47 on: October 10, 2007, 05:42:31 PM »

This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 

If he doesn't win the election, he could probably get a job in Giuliani's campaign...
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #48 on: October 10, 2007, 05:50:05 PM »

This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 

It's about the death of his brother, and Ogonowski's subsequent leadership in stepping up for his family and his country.  "Disgusting" is not a word that comes to mind for me here.

Is there similar outrage over Carolyn McCarthy?

Im pretty sure McCarthy didn't use her tragedy in ads. 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #49 on: October 10, 2007, 05:50:47 PM »

This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 

If he doesn't win the election, he could probably get a job in Giuliani's campaign...


I also heard that he might try to run against John Kerry if he comes close. 
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