If the evangelicals buck and go for a third party, will it cost the GOP 2008?

[Person Man]

I mean, we know that they are out there. There is at least 1 fundy on this site that refuses to vote for anything left of W on civil rights even if they would be shot if they didn't. I would say 5% of the entire electorate....possibly 7 or 8 percent. This will be devasting where the GOP's vote is concentrated on hard-core antiabortionists, like the eastern river valleys and and would be especially devasting in states like Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico where the GOP is far-right but the rest of the population isn't.  With someone like Guiliani, the GOP can expect to lose 5% of the party to apathy or the Constitution Party, another 2 or 3 to the dems (especially minorities), but could gain back some of those points from the dems if they show that neo-conservatism and supply-side economics is working.

[Person Man]

Gee... if that were so....

You're looking at this entirely the wrong way.

What if the evangelicals realize 2008 is a lost cause and the Republicans will lose anyway, would they than go for a third party to make a political point to the GOP brass?

I would say it would go 50 Clinton/Richardson (they will win, but will they dispell the myth that a majority of the country wouldn't vote the dem ticket under any circumstance)-31 Guliani/Romney-14 Huckabee/Keyes- 4 Nader/Bandarak

[Person Man]

Thancks a lot state boiler to answer my questions.

First i would like to precise that i'm not for the evangelicals. I just try to get informations about them cause i thinck they can have a very important place arround the world in the years to come.

When i asked if they tried to federate their churches, i wanted to know if, as there is a lot of different evangelical churches, they try to group them in a sort of federation of churches or in a sort of a big only evangelical movement with a only name, with a boss, with a strategy on a large scale and all the things that can do a big organization and not some different smalls.

I would also like to know if there is some debates in US mass medias on the separation of the Church and the State. If there are, does it take a large place, or a larger and larger place?

What i thinck from what i can see from my country is that the evangelicals will be deserved in 2008 but if the movement continue to spread in the population, i thinck they can come back stronger for the presidency elections to follow. What do you thinck about it?

Thanck you

Hmmm... There are actually a few federations of evangelical/fundamentalist churches. There are the National Association of Evangelicals, the Christian Coalition (though they are being replaced). There are some evangelist think tanks, such as the Family Research Council and Focus on the Family as well. Also, there are several evangelical law schools- There is Regent Law School, Liberty Law School and Ave Maria Law School for fundamentalist catholics. So yes, there are some federated churches, think tanks and schools that make up the evangelical movement.

The evangelical movement may or may not become a bigger force. The one reason for this is because of the splintering of more non-ideological evangelicals. For example, there are some that are anti-abortion, like all the others, but are also pro-Kyoto, pro-Medicare and a few younger members are pro-gay. So, the evangelical movement may lose its ability to be a unified single force, though they may play a role in their respective pet issues.

[Person Man]

Thanck you for your answers Goa Tse.

I heard speacking about the "Christian coalition", isn't its strategy more international?
I also knew for schools, the one i knew is the "Patrick Henry college" did you hear about it?
And i'm not surprised at all that they have thinck tanks.

When you tell me that you don't thinck that the evangelical can go bigger cause they are splinting there ideology and they are becoming more open minded, i thinck it is the only way for them to can have a future. I thinck that if they want to survive, they have to be more pragmatic with the world. My thinck is that they will concentrate them on some traditionnal values plus maybe the creationism and almost they will put the maximum on the proselythism and still above on the charismatic way of life that make that peoples who have troubles in their life and in their mind will can sing and scream at church and then feel better. I thinck that is that can work in the US and it works also all arround the world. I thinck they are enough intelligent to feel it and to do in consequence, especially the baptists and the pentecotists who are thancks to me the ones on who we have to keep an eye.

What do you thinck about it?

I dunno, maybe. They will probably catch flack and isolate themselves if they continue to stay the anus of the GOP, CDs, Cons and what have you.

[Person Man]

Actually, Evangelicals went


78-21 in 2004, counting as 23% of the vote

70-28 in 2006, counting as 24% of the vote.

  So, they are becoming larger, but more diluted.  The House election in 2006 went 52-44 and the presidency went 48-51. That's a 6 point swing. However, evangelical whites swung by 8, meaning the they are 2% more unreliable than before. That's about a .5% swing from GOP to DEM and if the trend continues and realistically slows, that will be about .75% swinging, if the evangelicals go 33-66 next election. Though it will probably be more like 70-28 if Romney or Thomson gets it or 40-59 if Guiliani gets it.