How many seats...
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Poll
Question: Will the Democrats gain in the 2008 elections
#1
0
 
#2
1-3
 
#3
4-6
 
#4
7-9
 
#5
10+
 
#6
They will lose seats
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 41

Author Topic: How many seats...  (Read 2355 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« on: October 08, 2007, 03:41:10 PM »

6 (New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon).
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2007, 04:04:58 PM »

I assume you're talking Senate?  If that's the case, I'm guessing it's D+3.
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Jake
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2007, 04:06:57 PM »

New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado look like the likely ones.
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Boris
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2007, 04:07:57 PM »

New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado. Maybe New Mexico depending upon the candidates.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2007, 04:18:20 PM »

I thought this was for the House when I voted. whoops!

Anyway, if the election was held today, the Democrats would win Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire. Next year, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and New Mexico will be highly competitive, and one or two may even drift over to "sure thing" status. I'm not holding my breath on Nebraska -- Kerrey is being too damn coy about running now, and nobody else has a chance against Johanns, especially in an election year.

So I'll say 5 -- the first three and two of ME/MN/OR/NM. I have no idea which.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2007, 04:45:17 PM »

I like how "ten plus" is an option here.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2007, 05:19:06 PM »

If the environment returns to a neutral (50-50) environment, the number is probably centered around Dem +2-3, though +1 or +4 or maybe even +5 is not out of the realm of possibilities. (key seats being NH, MN, CO, VA, NM and LA). 

If the environment is a slight Dem-leaning environment (+4 or +5 generically), the number is probably Dem +4-6. (add OR, ME and maybe NE or AL to the list)

If the environment turns into the so-called double wave environment, +7 or more is possible, 60 is possible.

These numbers connect in some ways to the Presidential environment, but in other ways they don't.  It's very hard at this point to say exactly how the up-ballot environment reacts to the down-ballot environment.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2007, 05:21:08 PM »

4-6 sounds about right. They're clearly leading in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado, and are bound to get 1-3 more from Nebraska, New Mexico, Maine, Oregon, Minnesota, or maybe some surprise.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2007, 06:29:29 PM »

50 lolz""!"!!!12134qp0r
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2007, 07:33:15 PM »

I like how "ten plus" is an option here.

Which is why I, too, thought it was House.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2007, 07:42:48 PM »

5-7, though I wouldn't put 8 or 9 out of the question.
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Verily
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2007, 08:10:32 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2007, 08:13:02 PM by Verily »


Now, now, there are only 22 Republican seats up for election that they can win. You mustn't set the bar too high Tongue

My guess is D+3 (CO, VA and NH), though realistically we could see anywhere from D+1 (VA and NH, losing LA) to D+5 (CO, VA, NH, two of NM, OR, ME, AK, NE and MN). This is dependent on future retirements and announcements, of course.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2007, 08:45:14 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2007, 08:57:19 PM by Mr. Moderate »

Because I know you're all so eager to know, here are my odds of where I think the Senate races are going (and the odds of the opposite party candidate winning each).  Pickups are in colored boldface, open seats in italics, and the chances for retirements are currently factored in.

REPUBLICAN HELD (22)
Virginia 66.7%
New Hampshire 60%
Colorado 57.5%
New Mexico 49.9%
Minnesota 49.9%
Oregon 45%
Maine 35%
Nebraska 25%
Alaska 20%
Kentucky 17.5%
North Carolina 15%
Texas 10%
Idaho 10%
Rest: Less than 10%

DEMOCRAT HELD (12)
Louisiana 51%
South Dakota 25%
New Jersey 15%
Montana 15%
Iowa 10%
Arkansas 10%
Rest: Less than 10%

I think it to be all but impossible for Democrats to win more than seven, even in the most friendly of environments.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2007, 08:48:05 PM »

I have no complaints with your list, Moderate, even though I think we would do it quite differently (and I would place Oregon lower).
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2007, 08:55:21 PM »

If the election were today, there is no doubt I would place Oregon much, much lower.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2007, 09:12:11 PM »

If the election were today, there is no doubt I would place Oregon much, much lower.

Wise call.

The Democratic primary is turning into a nasty fight. The underdog, a liberal lawyer/grassroots activist, just outraised the "establishment candidate," Speaker Jeff Merkley.  The underdog recently sent out an inflammatory press release that chided Merkley for his poor fundraising perfromance.

Adding to the Democratic woes is Independent John Frohnnmeyer's aggressively pro-impeachment rhetoric. The Independent candidate is forcing the Democrats even further to the left, a position that wins them votes in Portland and Eugene, but not in the crucial suburban counties.

The one glimmer of hope for Democrats is Smith's soft support among Republicans. Public opinion polls have shown that Smith's approval among Democrats is on par with his GOP approval ratings. Once the Democrats go negative, Smith's favorables with Dems will surely drop. If a conservative third party candidate jumps into the race, Smith may struggle to break 45% of the vote.


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Padfoot
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2007, 01:12:42 AM »

Here's how I'd rate the races if the election was today:

Dem favored: New Hampshire, Virginia
Lean Dem: Louisiana
Tossup: Maine, Colorado, New Mexico, Nebraska, Minnesota
Lean Republican: Oregon, Alaska
(All others are safe incumbent party.)

As of today NH and VA are the Democrats' to lose.  I put NM, NE, and MN in the tossup mostly because of candidate uncertainty.  Colorado will be strongly affected by the presidential race IMO so it is really hard to judge until we know who the presidential candidates are for certain.  I think Maine is going to be the most interesting Senate race of 2008.  Both candidates are well known and popular statewide.  I think Maine will set the mood for the Democrats on election night 2008.  Oregon is hard to judge given the strong independent possibility as well as poor Democratic candidate recruitment.  It should be a top Democratic target but they're having too many issues right now to surmount an incumbent toppling challenge.  Alaska is the most volatile at this point.  If Stevens is cleared then it goes back to safe Republican.  If he resigns its another open seat and another big target for Democrats but it would probably favor the Republicans still.  If it looks like he will be charged with something AND he doesn't resign it would move to the tossup category or perhaps even lean Democrat depending on the challenger.
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opebo
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2007, 03:37:07 AM »

It is a bit hard to say at this early date, but I voted 4-6 as the most likely outcome.  I'd say VA and NH look very good, MN and CO look good, and we'll have an even chance of keeping LA and/or getting another one such as NM, ME or OR.  I guess I'd say 3-5 is the most likely, so I voted 4-6 lacking that option.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2007, 04:54:44 AM »

I think Maine will set the mood for the Democrats on election night 2008.

I hope you're right because I don't think Tom Allen has a snowball's chance in Hell.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2007, 07:47:55 AM »

If the election were today, there is no doubt I would place Oregon much, much lower.

Wise call.

The Democratic primary is turning into a nasty fight. The underdog, a liberal lawyer/grassroots activist, just outraised the "establishment candidate," Speaker Jeff Merkley.  The underdog recently sent out an inflammatory press release that chided Merkley for his poor fundraising perfromance.

How does that work, exactly? Merkley raised over twice what Novick raised, and the majority of that was in the month of September alone. Novick has a few thousand more on hand, but I don't see how he could be gloating about that, considering he's been in the race since, like, April.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2007, 02:23:25 PM »

I think the Dems are most likely to win 3-5 seats: CO, VA, and NH lean Democrat, NE and NM are tossups and MN and OR are definately leaning republican. I don't think Tom Allen is going to beat Collins.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2007, 10:19:04 PM »
« Edited: October 09, 2007, 10:52:11 PM by MarkWarner08 »

If the election were today, there is no doubt I would place Oregon much, much lower.

Wise call.

The Democratic primary is turning into a nasty fight. The underdog, a liberal lawyer/grassroots activist, just outraised the "establishment candidate," Speaker Jeff Merkley.  The underdog recently sent out an inflammatory press release that chided Merkley for his poor fundraising perfromance.

How does that work, exactly? Merkley raised over twice what Novick raised, and the majority of that was in the month of September alone. Novick has a few thousand more on hand, but I don't see how he could be gloating about that, considering he's been in the race since, like, April.

You're looking at the fundraising race from a logical perspective. Less rational folks (ie primary voters) tend to be more influenced by non fact based arguments. Novick's campaign is saying that since Merkely is the "Washington candidate" backed by the "nefarious" DSCC, he should be crushing Novick in the cash chase. Since Novick maintains a COH lead, albeit quite narrow, they are claiming an early victory.
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Sensei
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« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2007, 10:47:09 PM »

NH, MN, VA, NM, ME, CO, OR, NE are all possible, but maybe 4 or 5

minus LA

So I think its a net gain of 3 or 4 at least.
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Conan
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« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2007, 11:18:22 PM »

Net gain of at least 4.
VA
NH
MN
CO

Nebraska isnt going to happen (doubt Kerrey will run) and Oregon is lacking a top challenger. NM waiting to see who will be in the race. I'd love to see some polls from Maine, which will have Collins with a comfortable lead now but she will probably win.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #24 on: October 10, 2007, 12:39:37 AM »

NH, MN, VA, NM, ME, CO, OR, NE are all possible, but maybe 4 or 5

minus LA

So I think its a net gain of 3 or 4 at least.

It's not over in LA. There are some rumblings down in the Bayou that Kennedy may face a few challengers from the right. Don't be surprised if Mary Landreiu wins w/o a runoff.
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