The Electoral Calculus Formula
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  The Electoral Calculus Formula
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Author Topic: The Electoral Calculus Formula  (Read 968 times)
The Man From G.O.P.
TJN2024
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 10, 2007, 09:30:06 AM »

Predicting LibDem seats at zero right now, I know that's not really feasable, but what exactly leads to this result when the math comes out of the machines?
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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2007, 09:53:04 AM »

I think, IIRC if the Lib Dems drop by 1/10th of their 2005 nationwide vote in a poll, then they loose 1/10th of support in each seat in Baxters model. At the moment in some, the Lib Dems are down close to half of what they got last time round, cutting their share of the vote by half in each seat effectively wiping them out.
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Verily
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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2007, 10:54:58 AM »
« Edited: October 10, 2007, 06:45:14 PM by Verily »

It's generally a poor calculator, and afleitch has pointed out its biggest flaw. The calculation method is very unfriendly to the Lib Dems. You'd be better off looking at a uniform swing calculator, which still has the problem of not accounting for factors like incumbency and local variance but at least models results well.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2007, 06:48:36 PM »

I used it for my predictions in 2005:

LAB 36.36% (366 seats); CON 34.21% (194 seats); LDEM 21.55% (56 seats) - Labour overall majority of 86

It overestimated Labour by 10 seats; and underestimated the Tories by 4 and the Lib Dems by 6, possibly because I allowed for 2.5% LD to LAB tactical voting. I guess I underestimated the effect of Iraq and top-up tuition fees. Of course, Labour came out of it with an overall majority of 66

I allowed for 0.5% CON to LD tactical voting and 2.0% LAB  to LD tactical voting (5% in total)

Dave
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