Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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Posts: 14,703
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43
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« on: October 10, 2007, 06:48:36 PM » |
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I used it for my predictions in 2005:
LAB 36.36% (366 seats); CON 34.21% (194 seats); LDEM 21.55% (56 seats) - Labour overall majority of 86
It overestimated Labour by 10 seats; and underestimated the Tories by 4 and the Lib Dems by 6, possibly because I allowed for 2.5% LD to LAB tactical voting. I guess I underestimated the effect of Iraq and top-up tuition fees. Of course, Labour came out of it with an overall majority of 66
I allowed for 0.5% CON to LD tactical voting and 2.0% LAB to LD tactical voting (5% in total)
Dave
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