Rothenberg House ratings

[Nym90]

All seats not listed are considered safe.

PURE TOSS-UP (5 R, 4 D)

FL 16 (Mahoney, D)
KS 2 (Boyda, D)
PA 10 (Carney, D)
TX 22 (Lampson, D)
AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R)
IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)
MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
NM 1 (Open; Wilson, R)
VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (3 R, 0 D)

FL 13 (Buchanan, R)
NC 8 (Hayes, R)
WA 8 (Reichert, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (1 R, 4 D)

CA 11 (McNerney, D)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
IL 8 (Bean, D)
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)

LEAN REPUBLICAN (11 R, 0 D)

CT 4 (Shays, R)
IL 10 (Kirk, R)
MI 9 (Knollenberg, R)
NV 3 (Porter, R)
NJ 7 (Ferguson, R)
NY 25 (Walsh, R)
NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
OH 1 (Chabot, R)
OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
OH 16 (Regula, R)
PA 6 (Gerlach, R)

LEAN DEMOCRATIC (0 R, 9 D)

AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
GA 12 (Barrow, D)
IN 9 (Hill, D)
MN 1 (Walz, D)
NY 19 (Hall, D)
NY 20 (Gillibrand, D)
OH 18 (Space, D)
PA 4 (Altmire, D)
WI 8 (Kagen, D)

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (15 R, 0 D)

AK A-L (Young, R)
CA 4 (Doolittle, R)
CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
FL 8 (Keller, R)
IL 6 (Roskam, R)
IL 14 (Open; Hastert, R)
MI 7 (Walberg, R)
MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
MO 6 (Graves, R)
NJ 3 (Saxton, R)
NY 13 (Fosella, R)
PA 14 (Murphy, R)
VA 2 (Drake, R)
WV 2 (Capito, R)
WY AL (Cubin, R)

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (0 R, 10 D)

AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
CT 5 (Murphy, D)
IN 2 (Donnelly, D)
IN 8 (Ellsworth, D)
KS 3 (Moore, D)
KY 3 (Yarmuth, D)
ME 1 (Open; Allen, D)
PA 7 (Sestak, D)
PA 8 (Murphy, D)
TX 23 (Rodriguez, D)

[Verily]

Looks good, except that I think Gillibrand is safer than that. I might be inclined to put a couple more into Toss-up/Tilt Republican, too.

[Person Man]

I'd say it looks like +3 DEM at this rate.

[Sam Spade]

I have issues with the list here and there (some more major than others), but I'm not going to really complain strongly at this time.  I haven't put out my list yet, so I'm in no position to comment.

Gillibrand is right about where she should be.  Hall should be lower.

[Conan]

ME 1 shouldnt even be on this list.

[Adlai Stevenson]

All seats not listed are considered safe.

PURE TOSS-UP (5 R, 4 D)

FL 16 (Mahoney, D)
KS 2 (Boyda, D)
PA 10 (Carney, D)
TX 22 (Lampson, D)
AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R)
IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)
MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
NM 1 (Open; Wilson, R)
VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (3 R, 0 D)

FL 13 (Buchanan, R)
NC 8 (Hayes, R)
WA 8 (Reichert, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (1 R, 4 D)

CA 11 (McNerney, D)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
IL 8 (Bean, D)
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)

LEAN REPUBLICAN (11 R, 0 D)

CT 4 (Shays, R)
IL 10 (Kirk, R)
MI 9 (Knollenberg, R)
NV 3 (Porter, R)
NJ 7 (Ferguson, R)
NY 25 (Walsh, R)
NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
OH 1 (Chabot, R)
OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
OH 16 (Regula, R)
PA 6 (Gerlach, R)

LEAN DEMOCRATIC (0 R, 9 D)

AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
GA 12 (Barrow, D)
IN 9 (Hill, D)
MN 1 (Walz, D)
NY 19 (Hall, D)
NY 20 (Gillibrand, D)
OH 18 (Space, D)
PA 4 (Altmire, D)
WI 8 (Kagen, D)

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (15 R, 0 D)

AK A-L (Young, R)
CA 4 (Doolittle, R)
CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
FL 8 (Keller, R)
IL 6 (Roskam, R)
IL 14 (Open; Hastert, R)
MI 7 (Walberg, R)
MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
MO 6 (Graves, R)
NJ 3 (Saxton, R)
NY 13 (Fosella, R)
PA 14 (Murphy, R)
VA 2 (Drake, R)
WV 2 (Capito, R)
WY AL (Cubin, R)

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (0 R, 10 D)

AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
CT 5 (Murphy, D)
IN 2 (Donnelly, D)
IN 8 (Ellsworth, D)
KS 3 (Moore, D)
KY 3 (Yarmuth, D)
ME 1 (Open; Allen, D)
PA 7 (Sestak, D)
PA 8 (Murphy, D)
TX 23 (Rodriguez, D)

I wouldn't put any Democratic incumbent in the Toss-Up category yet, every race with a Democratic incumbent should at least be in the Tilt Democrat category at the outset. 

NM-1, OH-15 Could Tip to Democrats

The latest Evans-Novak Political Report suggests New Mexico's first congressional district could tip towards Democrats with Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) announcing her intentions to run for U.S. Senate. "The district is 42 percent Hispanic, which puts it almost totally outside GOP reach: Republicans represent only five of the 41 other congressional districts that are one-third or more Hispanic." The race is rated "Leaning Democratic Takeover."

Meanwhile, in Ohio's 15th congressional district, Novak suggests the GOP "may have given up on the seat currently held by retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH)" with several strong Democratic candidates likely to run. The race is rated "Likely Democratic Takeover."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/10/10/nm1_oh15_could_tip_to_democrats.html

[MAS117]

Glad to see NJ-3 on that list.

[Mr.Phips]

I would still keep Carney in Tossup/Tilt Democratic since he doesn't have a real top tier opponent(a State Senator, former Congressman, ect.). 

I would take both Patrick Murphy(PA-08), Joe Sestak(PA-07) and possibly even John Yarmuth(KY-03) off the list all together.  These guys aren't going anywhere in 2008 when Hillary Clinton is likely to win all of these districts by at least five points.  I would move John Hall(NY-19) to Democrat Favored, since the district will likely favor Hillary and that will give him a big boost. 

[CollectiveInterest]

In Illinois the GOP is in trouble. Here are my odds for Dems flipping GOP seats.

IL-11--70%
IL-10--60%
IL-14--45%
IL-18--30%
IL-13--30%
IL-16--20%
IL-19--15%
IL-06--15%
IL-15--negligible

The odds of the GOP flipping IL-08 are probably about 5%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Glad to see NJ-3 on that list.

I think you'd have to put it on there for now.  On paper, it looks like a strong challenge.

In Illinois the GOP is in trouble. Here are my odds for Dems flipping GOP seats.

...

IL-14--45%
IL-18--30%
IL-13--30%

...

The odds of the GOP flipping IL-08 are probably about 5%.

Me thinks you overestimate the Democrats' chances in these seats, R+5 all.

[Mr.Phips]

Glad to see NJ-3 on that list.

I think you'd have to put it on there for now.  On paper, it looks like a strong challenge.

In Illinois the GOP is in trouble. Here are my odds for Dems flipping GOP seats.

...

IL-14--45%
IL-18--30%
IL-13--30%

...

The odds of the GOP flipping IL-08 are probably about 5%.

Me thinks you overestimate the Democrats' chances in these seats, R+5 all.

Hes overstating their chances in IL-13 and IL-14.  IL-18 could be close.  IL-08 probably has about a 20% chance of going Republican with Bean as the incumbent. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Still, if the GOP has to defend the seats listed, ranging all the way up to R+8, it's better off doing it during a Presidential year when Hillary is on the ballot.

Unless she totally has coattails as conservatives go wild over her Baby Bond plan!

[CollectiveInterest]

Do you think the GOP brand is positioned better, worse or about the same as 2006?

My guess is that the GOP is tainted even worse than in 2006.

The Illinois GOP is in disarray. And there is no good news that will spare GOP candidates for Congress in Illinois.

[Nym90]

PURE TOSS-UP (6 R, 4 D)

FL 16 (Mahoney, D)
KS 2 (Boyda, D)
PA 10 (Carney, D)
TX 22 (Lampson, D)
AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R)
IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)
MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)
NM1 (Open; Wilson, R)
VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (3 R, 0 D)

FL 13 (Buchanan, R)
NC 8 (Hayes, R)
WA 8 (Reichert, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (1 R, 4 D)

CA 11 (McNerney, D)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
IL 8 (Bean, D)
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)

LEAN REPUBLICAN (11 R, 0 D)

CT 4 (Shays, R)
IL 10 (Kirk, R)
MI 9 (Knollenberg, R)
NV 3 (Porter, R)
NJ 7 (Ferguson, R)
NY 25 (Walsh, R)
NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
OH 1 (Chabot, R)
OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
OH 16 (Regula, R)
PA 6 (Gerlach, R)

LEAN DEMOCRATIC (0 R, 9 D)

AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
GA 12 (Barrow, D)
IN 9 (Hill, D)
MN 1 (Walz, D)
NY 19 (Hall, D)
NY 20 (Gillibrand, D)
OH 18 (Space, D)
PA 4 (Altmire, D)
WI 8 (Kagen, D)

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (14 R, 0 D)

AK A-L (Young, R)
CA 4 (Doolittle, R)
CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
FL 8 (Keller, R)
IL 6 (Roskam, R)
IL 14 (Open; Hastert, R)
MI 7 (Walberg, R)
MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
MO 6 (Graves, R)
NY 13 (Fosella, R)
PA 14 (Murphy, R)
VA 2 (Drake, R)
WV 2 (Capito, R)
WY AL (Open, Cubin, R)

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (0 R, 10 D)

AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
CT 5 (Murphy, D)
IN 2 (Donnelly, D)
IN 8 (Ellsworth, D)
KS 3 (Moore, D)
KY 3 (Yarmuth, D)
ME 1 (Open; Allen, D)
PA 7 (Sestak, D)
PA 8 (Murphy, D)
TX 23 (Rodriguez, D)

[Brittain33]

Unless there were reciprocal switches among the categories I missed, the only change I see is NJ-3 moving from a strong Republican category up to toss-up.

[TeePee4Prez]

Unless there were reciprocal switches among the categories I missed, the only change I see is NJ-3 moving from a strong Republican category up to toss-up.

If Saxton's retiring, then yeah I can see a tossup/lean Dem with Adler as Dem nominee.  Otherwise, I think it stays GOP despite Adler.

[Mr.Phips]

PURE TOSS-UP (6 R, 4 D)

FL 16 (Mahoney, D)
KS 2 (Boyda, D)
PA 10 (Carney, D)
TX 22 (Lampson, D)
AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R)
IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)
MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)
NM1 (Open; Wilson, R)
VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (3 R, 0 D)

FL 13 (Buchanan, R)
NC 8 (Hayes, R)
WA 8 (Reichert, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (1 R, 4 D)

CA 11 (McNerney, D)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
IL 8 (Bean, D)
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)

LEAN REPUBLICAN (11 R, 0 D)

CT 4 (Shays, R)
IL 10 (Kirk, R)
MI 9 (Knollenberg, R)
NV 3 (Porter, R)
NJ 7 (Ferguson, R)
NY 25 (Walsh, R)
NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
OH 1 (Chabot, R)
OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
OH 16 (Regula, R)
PA 6 (Gerlach, R)

LEAN DEMOCRATIC (0 R, 9 D)

AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
GA 12 (Barrow, D)
IN 9 (Hill, D)
MN 1 (Walz, D)
NY 19 (Hall, D)
NY 20 (Gillibrand, D)
OH 18 (Space, D)
PA 4 (Altmire, D)
WI 8 (Kagen, D)

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (14 R, 0 D)

AK A-L (Young, R)
CA 4 (Doolittle, R)
CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
FL 8 (Keller, R)
IL 6 (Roskam, R)
IL 14 (Open; Hastert, R)
MI 7 (Walberg, R)
MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
MO 6 (Graves, R)
NY 13 (Fosella, R)
PA 14 (Murphy, R)
VA 2 (Drake, R)
WV 2 (Capito, R)
WY AL (Open, Cubin, R)

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (0 R, 10 D)

AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
CT 5 (Murphy, D)
IN 2 (Donnelly, D)
IN 8 (Ellsworth, D)
KS 3 (Moore, D)
KY 3 (Yarmuth, D)
ME 1 (Open; Allen, D)
PA 7 (Sestak, D)
PA 8 (Murphy, D)
TX 23 (Rodriguez, D)

He should take ME-01 and PA-07 off here. 

[MarkWarner08]

PURE TOSS-UP (6 R, 4 D)
VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)

Rothenberg must be privy to some insider knowledge.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Looks good, except that I think Gillibrand is safer than that. I might be inclined to put a couple more into Toss-up/Tilt Republican, too.

Funny, the complaint I was going to make was I thought they made her seat too safe

[Brittain33]

Funny, the complaint I was going to make was I thought they made her seat too safe

She has more money on hand than the entire NRCC. I can't get over that fact.

[Mr.Phips]

Funny, the complaint I was going to make was I thought they made her seat too safe

She has more money on hand than the entire NRCC. I can't get over that fact.

Gillibrand is likely going to end up being the Anne Northup of Democrats, holding on to a district that she has a 2 to 1 registration disadvantage because she raises so much money. 

[minionofmidas]

Funny, the complaint I was going to make was I thought they made her seat too safe

She has more money on hand than the entire NRCC. I can't get over that fact.

Gillibrand is likely going to end up being the Anne Northup of Democrats, holding on to a district that she has a 2 to 1 registration disadvantage because she raises so much money. 

Anne Northup held onto her district because she was popular with Blacks.

[Brittain33]

Gillibrand is likely going to end up being the Anne Northup of Democrats, holding on to a district that she has a 2 to 1 registration disadvantage because she raises so much money. 

Anne Northup held onto her district because she was popular with Blacks.

Gillibrand is popular with community leaders in her district. I agree, she'll hang around and do very well until the Republicans or New York Republicans have a good year and then it will get ugly.

[jokerman]

I'd like somebody decent to challenge Boozman, this year.  Really, it's not like the Arkansas Democratic Party has anything else to do next year.  We've beaten the state GOP with a stick and now it's time to knock out their last state or federal official.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'd like somebody decent to challenge Boozman, this year.  Really, it's not like the Arkansas Democratic Party has anything else to do next year.  We've beaten the state GOP with a stick and now it's time to knock out their last state or federal official.

When's the last time a Democrat held that seat? Wouldn't be surprised if it's been a century.