MS Polls

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Are they planning on doing any before the election?  Has anybody heard rumors?

[Tender Branson]

I haven´t seen any poll from MS either. Even in 2004 and 2006 there were hardly any polls from that state ...

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I haven´t seen any poll from MS either. Even in 2004 and 2006 there were hardly any polls from that state ...

Well, I know who I'm calling as the winner, but w/o even one poll, it's hard to make a percentage.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I haven´t seen any poll from MS either. Even in 2004 and 2006 there were hardly any polls from that state ...

Well, I know who I'm calling as the winner, but w/o even one poll, it's hard to make a percentage.

Well, you'll just have to start at the Bush/Kerry numbers, and adjust based on changes in the perceived African American turnout (I'd guess that moves the needle towards Barbour) and Eaves' conservatism (which may be a plus OR a negative, depending on how you look at things).

I'm expecting a very similar result to Bush/Kerry.

[7,052,770]

Barbour 53, Eaves 47 would be my estimate.

The Clarion-Ledger did a Musgrove/Barbour poll near the last week of the '03 election, so we may get one in a couple weeks.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'd expect a current poll to read something like...
Barbour: Low fifties
Eaves: Low thirties
Undecided: Mid teens

[7,052,770]

I'd expect a current poll to read something like...
Barbour: Low fifties
Eaves: Low thirties
Undecided: Mid teens

You're misunderestimating a few things:

--Kerry was a terrible candidate for Mississippi.  Eaves will do much better among whites in Mississippi than Kerry did.
--There is a black candidate, Gary Anderson, running for Insurance Commissioner who has a legit chance of winning.  He would be the first African-American to ever hold statewide office in Mississippi.  He's done a great job campaigning and ought to keep black turnout high, and could end up having some (small) coattails on the rest of the ticket.
--Barbour promised the fundies he'd never let casinos move onto land and then he did.  They have not forgiven him for that and many are buying into Eaves's pro-Jesus pro-family stances.  Eaves is putting together a bizarre coalition of liberals, blacks, and fundamentalist Christians that may not win, but will at least surprise some people across the country.

[HardRCafé]

Barbour 58%
Eaves 42%

Assuming a straight two-way race.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction (slightly different than on my 2007 prediction page):

Barbour: 56-58%
Eaves: 42-44%

[Mr.Phips]

I think its gonna be Barbour by 54%-45%. 

[Gabu]

I've currently got it at Barbour >50% on my prediction map, and that's as specific as I'm going to get.

[Hash]

I've currently got it at Barbour >50% on my prediction map, and that's as specific as I'm going to get.

[Jake]

Eaves 52, Barbour 48

[minionofmidas]

Hoping that Jake's right... but I predict Barbour 54.9%.