Washington is the West Virginia in 2004

[struct310]

I love starting this one.  I really think Washington will surprise everyone this year.  The GOP GOTV is amazing this time around and the governors race is starting to heat up.  After 20 years of democratic dominance, the people are itching for change.  

[TheWildCard]

I'd say its not probable yet it isn't impossible either for Washington to go GOP. I've always wondered why the home state of Microsoft and Starbucks has seemed to be a fairly solid liberal state for such a long time.

[millwx]

I love starting this one.  I really think Washington will surprise everyone this year.  The GOP GOTV is amazing this time around and the governors race is starting to heat up.  After 20 years of democratic dominance, the people are itching for change.  

The poll average in WA is about Kerry +5% to +10% (depending on which polls you care to use and/or how far back you want to go).  Of course, the polls aren't perfect and it's still only August 1st... but my point is, WA isn't really terribly close.  Every one of the factors you mention would have to come up huge in order for Bush to take WA or even make it close.  Possible?  Sure, it's not like Kerry's up by 15% there.  Likely?  No.

[Lunar]

I disagree, I think Washington will be like Colorado for the Democrats in 04.  An amazing GOTV effort and the governer's race MIGHT be worth 5% together, but it would have to be absolutely-bloody-amazing.

[Trilobyte]

I'd say its not probable yet it isn't impossible either for Washington to go GOP. I've always wondered why the home state of Microsoft and Starbucks has seemed to be a fairly solid liberal state for such a long time.

And home to Boeing not too long ago. Bill Gates is a Democrat, I believe.

[TheWildCard]

I'd say its not probable yet it isn't impossible either for Washington to go GOP. I've always wondered why the home state of Microsoft and Starbucks has seemed to be a fairly solid liberal state for such a long time.

And home to Boeing not too long ago. Bill Gates is a Democrat, I believe.

He gave money to Bush's campiagn... So I'm not too sure about that.

[they don't love you like i love you]

and what makes you think that? all the polls show Kerry with a clear lead. That wasn't true with WV, polls showed the state slipping from Gore from quite awhile until the election.

[minionofmidas]

I'd say its not probable yet it isn't impossible either for Washington to go GOP. I've always wondered why the home state of Microsoft and Starbucks has seemed to be a fairly solid liberal state for such a long time.

And home to Boeing not too long ago. Bill Gates is a Democrat, I believe.

He may once have been one.

[Shira]

West Washington state is like NY and MA. The east part is like ID.
Bush can win in WA only if the elections are not close.
Someone was wandering how comes that Microsoft country is not a Rep one.
That exactly the case all over country: Secular and highly educated people tend more to vote Dem.

[TheWildCard]

That exactly the case all over country: Secular and highly educated people tend more to vote Dem.

So basically those who have been brain washed by their colleges!

[Lunar]

That exactly the case all over country: Secular and highly educated people tend more to vote Dem.

So basically those who have been brain washed by their colleges!

Either that... or maybe different priorities on values.

[TheWildCard]

That exactly the case all over country: Secular and highly educated people tend more to vote Dem.

.
So basically those who have been brain washed by their colleges!

Either that... or maybe different priorities on values

Hope you know I was kind of kidding.

[they don't love you like i love you]

this is what conservatives mean when they say "values"

-mysoginy
-hating gays
-being annoying and moralizing about stuff on TV and movies

it's a load of crap.

[bgwah]

Governor, maybe Republican.
President, definately Democrat.

[Lunar]

Yes Wildcard, I knew (and thanks for fixing my post a bit).

And BRTD, I think the different priorities involve things like family values versus personal freedom.

[TeePee4Prez]

this is what conservatives mean when they say "values"

-mysoginy
-hating gays
-being annoying and moralizing about stuff on TV and movies

it's a load of crap.

Amen to that!  Don't forget using the Catholic Church as a pawn.  The same people thatv are preaching social justice are giving Rick Santoilet honorary doctorates in that area.  How ironic.

[Ben.]

I'd take any wager that Kerry will carry WA by a solid if not huge margin... however with a smaller Nader vote this time around Kerry will proably win it by 4-7%! overall.

[they don't love you like i love you]

another prediction to bump.

[Alcon]

another prediction to bump.

Not a horrible one, really.

Gregoire was polling up by a decent margin.

This was a somewhat brave prediction, although it was probably not based on any facts so much as intuition.

[Rob]

Ben's prediction was dead on.