Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary - 20 October 2007
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  Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary - 20 October 2007
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Author Topic: Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary - 20 October 2007  (Read 26487 times)
minionofmidas
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« Reply #125 on: October 21, 2007, 04:20:49 PM »

here's the Attorney General Map, Caldwell in red, Foti in green


That is a weird set of results.


 It's not that weird. Alexander did well in the Republican strongholds of the state - Northern LA, Lafayette and St. Tammany. It seems that Foti held onto the Cajun (south central LA) strongholds and Caldwell picked up most of the rest.

That's the basic picture, yeah. What caught my eye was the eastern end of Acadia - Terrebonne, Lafourche, Plaquemines - voting for Caldwell, that weird little patch of three Caldwell parishes around Natchitoches, and the more heavily black areas around Baton Rouge voting for Foti (while both New Orleans and NE Louisiana voted for Caldwell). However, the first is probably explained by proximity to New Orleans (and perhaps media markets as well?) and in the last case, I somewhat overestimated the blackness of places like Saint James and St John the Baptist and underestimated their frenchness.

Louisiana Parishes with above-average Cajun populations:*
Acadia Parish 38.0
Allen Parish 19.8
Ascension Parish 29.7
Assumption Parish 36.8
Avoyelles Parish 31.5
Calcasieu Parish 24.3
Cameron Parish 44.5
Evengeline Parish 34.2
Iberia Parish 32.2
Iberville Parish 21.1
Jefferson Parish 19.6
Jefferson Davis Parish 38.0
Lafayette Parish 29.7
Lafourche Parish 42.6
Livingston Parish 18.7
Plaquemines Parish 23.3
Pointe Coupee Parish 30.0
Saint Bernard Parish 24.1
Saint Charles Parish 26.1
Saint James Parish 25.0
Saint John the Baptist Parish 19.4
Saint Landry Parish 26.5
Saint Martin Parish 35.8
Saint Mary Parish 27.9
Saint Tammany Parish 18.2
Terrebonne Parish 35.0
Vermilion Parish 41.5
West Baton Rouge Parish 26.1

Louisiana Parishes with above average black populations**
Bienville Parish 43.8
Caddo Parish 44.6
Claiborne Parish 47.4
Concordia Parish 37.7
De Soto Parish 42.2
East Baton Rouge Parish 40.1
East Carroll Parish 67.3
East Feliciana Parish 47.1
Iberville Parish 49.7
Lincoln Parish 39.8
Madison Parish 60.3
Morehouse Parish 43.4
Natchitoches Parish 38.4
Orleans Parish 67.3
Ouachita Parish 33.6
Pointe Coupee Parish 37.8
Red River Parish 40.9
Richland Parish 38.0
St. Helena Parish 52.4
St. James Parish 49.4
St. John the Baptist Parish 44.8
St. Landry Parish 42.1
Tensas Parish 55.4
Webster Parish 32.8
West Baton Rouge Parish 35.5
West Feliciana Parish 48.6

*"Acadian/Cajun", "French" and "French Canadian". Percentage of total ancestries tallied, from 2000 census sample. State average 17.5%
**Black only, from 2000 census. State average 32.5%
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #126 on: October 22, 2007, 02:47:12 PM »

What happened in New Orleans, out of interest?

BTW, Bobby Jindal is the first Indian-American governor of any US state and the first non-white LA governor since Reconstruction, apparently.
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nclib
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« Reply #127 on: October 22, 2007, 04:22:32 PM »

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #128 on: October 22, 2007, 04:24:32 PM »

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?

Because these racist counties are conservative - as racism is.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #129 on: October 22, 2007, 04:31:52 PM »

Sorry to take so long to get this up...
LA Gubernatorial 2007  

Dave
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #130 on: October 22, 2007, 07:55:17 PM »

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?

They saw what it got them last time?
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« Reply #131 on: October 22, 2007, 08:15:47 PM »

How did the Republican for Insurance Commissioner lose a bunch of conservative parishes, but carry Orleans (and with over 50% too!)

I'm just happy Mitch Landrieu won comfortably.
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Rob
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« Reply #132 on: October 23, 2007, 01:55:41 AM »

Shockingly, the Washington Post is trying to spin Jindal's victory as a sign of the national GOP's "resurgence."
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phk
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« Reply #133 on: October 23, 2007, 02:19:43 AM »

I imagine Landrieu is fairly happy.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #134 on: October 23, 2007, 02:42:52 AM »

How did the Republican for Insurance Commissioner lose a bunch of conservative parishes, but carry Orleans (and with over 50% too!)

I'm just happy Mitch Landrieu won comfortably.

I'd be guessing that if you're currently living in Orleans parish, you've dealt quite a bit with the Insurance Commissioner and been on the recieving end of insurance money.
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Nym90
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« Reply #135 on: October 23, 2007, 10:03:04 AM »

Shockingly, the Washington Post is trying to spin Jindal's victory as a sign of the national GOP's "resurgence."

I wouldn't go so far as to say they are trying to spin it that way. The article seems pretty skeptical of any national GOP resurgence or reading too much into this.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #136 on: October 23, 2007, 01:39:19 PM »


Moron is the correct term for the bathroom bandit
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Conan
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« Reply #137 on: October 23, 2007, 04:24:10 PM »

These results in LA are actually a good sign.
Mitch Landrieu was the top vote getter in all the statewide races:
Lieutenant Governor
130,868                11% Gary J. Beard, R  - 
15,964                  1% Norris "Spanky" Gros, Jr., N  - 
15,553                  1% Thomas D. Kates, N  - 
375,667                30% "Sammy" Kershaw, R  - 
701,863                57% "Mitch" Landrieu, D 

Then, the AG race was almost going to be Dem v Dem in the run off:
Attorney General

395,452 32% Royal Alexander, R  - 
434,476 36% James D. "Buddy" Caldwell, D  - 
389,288 32% Charles C. Foti, Jr., D 
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #138 on: October 23, 2007, 06:19:07 PM »

These results in LA are actually a good sign.
Mitch Landrieu was the top vote getter in all the statewide races:
Lieutenant Governor
130,868                11% Gary J. Beard, R  - 
15,964                  1% Norris "Spanky" Gros, Jr., N  - 
15,553                  1% Thomas D. Kates, N  - 
375,667                30% "Sammy" Kershaw, R  - 
701,863                57% "Mitch" Landrieu, D 

You missed Jay Dardenne (R) @ 63% and 757,762, but I guess you probably didn't look down  on the page far enough.  Tongue
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Conan
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« Reply #139 on: October 23, 2007, 06:25:44 PM »

These results in LA are actually a good sign.
Mitch Landrieu was the top vote getter in all the statewide races:
Lieutenant Governor
130,868                11% Gary J. Beard, R  - 
15,964                  1% Norris "Spanky" Gros, Jr., N  - 
15,553                  1% Thomas D. Kates, N  - 
375,667                30% "Sammy" Kershaw, R  - 
701,863                57% "Mitch" Landrieu, D 

You missed Jay Dardenne (R) @ 63% and 757,762, but I guess you probably didn't look down  on the page far enough.  Tongue
Oops.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #140 on: October 23, 2007, 08:24:17 PM »

When are Louisiana state legislative elections held, BTW? 
The Republicans appear to have a longshot at the Louisiana House of Representatives.  Before the election it appeared to be 43-61-1.  So far, where a representative was elected, or where both runoff candidates are from the same party, it is 42-45-1, with 4 D-to-R switches, and 2 R-to-D switches.

In the 17 remaining inter-party contests, 14 seats are currently held by Democrats.  In RD 55 in Lafourche Parish, an independent received 41% of the vote to two Democrats with 25%.  

In 7 other districts, the Republican candidate came in first, but multiple Democrat candidates shared a majority of the vote.  Some of these districts may be cases where the Democrats are strong enough to treat the election as a Democratic primary with the single Republican candidate strong enough to make the runoff.  But at least some of those who voted for losing Democrats could switch to the Republican leader, or stay home.  Someone whose goal is to simply finish first among the Democrats, and then cruise to victory based on party line voting, may say something that is not forgotten or forgiven.

In 3 other districts, multiple Republican candidates received a majority of the vote, but the Democrat candidate came in first.  These are probably the mostly likely cases for pickups.

And in only 3 districts did the Democrat finish first, and the Democratic candidates received a majority of the vote.

There are only 3 currently GOP-held districts where there is an inter-party runoff.  In one, the Republican narrowly missed a majority (49%), and the GOP vote was 70%.

In the other two, the GOP candidate came first, but there was a majority for the Democrats.

Very unlikely that Republican win a majority in the State House.  Democrats led handily in the combined vote in 13 of the primaries that led to runoffs between Democrats and Republicans.  It looks likely that the new House will have 59 Democrats, 45 Republicans and one or maybe two independents. 
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #141 on: October 24, 2007, 01:54:15 PM »

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?
Because he wasn't running against a racist scum being this time around.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #142 on: October 24, 2007, 02:02:54 PM »

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?
Because he wasn't running against a racist scum being this time around.

Well, I personally suspect that might have realized that voting for Blanco was a mistake, and that their vote this time was kind of like a "redo".  Also, Jindal campaigned heavily in these areas, I wouldn't underestimate that.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #143 on: October 24, 2007, 02:09:17 PM »

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?
Because he wasn't running against a racist scum being this time around.

Well, I personally suspect that might have realized that voting for Blanco was a mistake, and that their vote this time was kind of like a "redo".  Also, Jindal campaigned heavily in these areas, I wouldn't underestimate that.
Most probably so. Still, the core of the explanation is that Blanco had an appeal in Northern Louisiana that the current bunch lacked. I've also just spent the past few minutes comparing this election with the 2004 Senate election. Very enlightening, I gotta say. (And Jindal still did notably worse than Vitter in Northern Louisiana.)
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #144 on: October 24, 2007, 02:47:45 PM »

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?
Because he wasn't running against a racist scum being this time around.

Well, I personally suspect that might have realized that voting for Blanco was a mistake, and that their vote this time was kind of like a "redo".  Also, Jindal campaigned heavily in these areas, I wouldn't underestimate that.
Most probably so. Still, the core of the explanation is that Blanco had an appeal in Northern Louisiana that the current bunch lacked. I've also just spent the past few minutes comparing this election with the 2004 Senate election. Very enlightening, I gotta say. (And Jindal still did notably worse than Vitter in Northern Louisiana.)


Cajuns don't have appeal in Northern Louisiana.  In fact, they usually have negative appeal.  But against a dark-skinned man, that negative appeal is overwhelmed the dark-skin negative appeal.  And as you pointed out, the dark-skin negative appeal wasn't even entirely overwhelmed even in the "do-over".
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #145 on: October 25, 2007, 09:57:17 PM »

Bob Odom, the Democratic incumbent for AG Commissioner has pulled out of the runoff, essentially giving the election to his Republican opponent Mike Strain (I suspect he was going to lose anyway).

http://wwl.com/Odom-pulls-out-of-Ag-Commissioner-s-runoff/1134192

That leaves the Attorney General's race as the only statewide office that will contested in the runoff on November 15.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #146 on: November 06, 2007, 11:48:31 PM »

I'll make a wager with you that Barbour gets less than 55.55% (the record margin)

Mississippi   
November 06, 2007 - 11:39PM ET   (i) = incumbent
Governor - General
1572 of 1899 Precincts Reporting - 83%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Barbour, Haley (i)   GOP   337,609   58%
Eaves, John   Dem   241,862   42%

To his credit, Eaves is outperforming his fellow Dems, save Hood and Sumrall.
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BRTD
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« Reply #147 on: November 06, 2007, 11:52:33 PM »

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?
Because he wasn't running against a racist scum being this time around.

Well, I personally suspect that might have realized that voting for Blanco was a mistake, and that their vote this time was kind of like a "redo".  Also, Jindal campaigned heavily in these areas, I wouldn't underestimate that.
Most probably so. Still, the core of the explanation is that Blanco had an appeal in Northern Louisiana that the current bunch lacked. I've also just spent the past few minutes comparing this election with the 2004 Senate election. Very enlightening, I gotta say. (And Jindal still did notably worse than Vitter in Northern Louisiana.)

Check out La Salle, home of the Jena 6.
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