who do you THINK will win the Democratic nomination?
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  who do you THINK will win the Democratic nomination?
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Poll
Question: who do you THINK will win the Democratic nomination? (last Intrade transaction price in brackets)
#1
Hillary Clinton [72.8]
 
#2
Barack Obama [12.6]
 
#3
Al Gore [5.4]
 
#4
John Edwards [4.0]
 
#5
Bill Richardson [0.7]
 
#6
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 52

Author Topic: who do you THINK will win the Democratic nomination?  (Read 3652 times)
ShadowRocket
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« Reply #25 on: October 23, 2007, 09:38:33 PM »

Unless she wins Iowa, then I will remain unconviced that Hillary is a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination. She is leading in the polls and raised the most money this past quarter, but until the voting begins, I don't think anyone can really can be sure who will be the nominee.

As for the poll, I voted John Edwards. I wouldn't count him out yet.

I agree with that.  I think any of the top 3 can still win the primary, and Hillary, while she is on top and seemingly increasing her lead, can still come crashing back down to earth.  I voted Hillary, but I wouldn't be a bit suprised to see her turn into a Howard Dean of 2003/2004, coming crashing down after the first of the year.

I think that if anything is going to bring her down, it'll be concerns over her electability. A lot of caucus goers are going to want to pick someone who can win in November, and I think the concern over electability may also lend itself to Obama. Which of course leaves Edwards.

A win in Iowa would give Edwards the needed momentum, and if the anti-Hillary vote were to coalesce around him in places like New Hampshire and South Carolina, I could see him winning the nomination.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #26 on: October 23, 2007, 10:19:38 PM »

Unless she wins Iowa, then I will remain unconviced that Hillary is a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination. She is leading in the polls and raised the most money this past quarter, but until the voting begins, I don't think anyone can really can be sure who will be the nominee.

As for the poll, I voted John Edwards. I wouldn't count him out yet.

I agree with that.  I think any of the top 3 can still win the primary, and Hillary, while she is on top and seemingly increasing her lead, can still come crashing back down to earth.  I voted Hillary, but I wouldn't be a bit suprised to see her turn into a Howard Dean of 2003/2004, coming crashing down after the first of the year.

I think that if anything is going to bring her down, it'll be concerns over her electability. A lot of caucus goers are going to want to pick someone who can win in November, and I think the concern over electability may also lend itself to Obama. Which of course leaves Edwards.

A win in Iowa would give Edwards the needed momentum, and if the anti-Hillary vote were to coalesce around him in places like New Hampshire and South Carolina, I could see him winning the nomination.

It is more likely to happen for Obama though because Edwards can't compete with the other two money wise and he has very little support in NH or SC.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #27 on: October 24, 2007, 05:16:49 PM »


Thanks for pointing that out - I'll show that to Dave.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #28 on: October 24, 2007, 09:32:17 PM »

Unless she wins Iowa, then I will remain unconviced that Hillary is a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination. She is leading in the polls and raised the most money this past quarter, but until the voting begins, I don't think anyone can really can be sure who will be the nominee.

As for the poll, I voted John Edwards. I wouldn't count him out yet.

I agree with that.  I think any of the top 3 can still win the primary, and Hillary, while she is on top and seemingly increasing her lead, can still come crashing back down to earth.  I voted Hillary, but I wouldn't be a bit suprised to see her turn into a Howard Dean of 2003/2004, coming crashing down after the first of the year.

I think that if anything is going to bring her down, it'll be concerns over her electability. A lot of caucus goers are going to want to pick someone who can win in November, and I think the concern over electability may also lend itself to Obama. Which of course leaves Edwards.

A win in Iowa would give Edwards the needed momentum, and if the anti-Hillary vote were to coalesce around him in places like New Hampshire and South Carolina, I could see him winning the nomination.

It is more likely to happen for Obama though because Edwards can't compete with the other two money wise and he has very little support in NH or SC.

I think if one of the candidates beat Hillary in Iowa, I think that will be the one who the anti-Hillary vote will rally behind. Personally, I think Edwards has just as much of a chance as Obama does to win Iowa. And like I said, I think the momentum he would receive from that would make him the clear alternative to Hillary Clinton.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #29 on: October 24, 2007, 11:09:05 PM »

Unless she wins Iowa, then I will remain unconviced that Hillary is a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination. She is leading in the polls and raised the most money this past quarter, but until the voting begins, I don't think anyone can really can be sure who will be the nominee.

As for the poll, I voted John Edwards. I wouldn't count him out yet.

I agree with that.  I think any of the top 3 can still win the primary, and Hillary, while she is on top and seemingly increasing her lead, can still come crashing back down to earth.  I voted Hillary, but I wouldn't be a bit suprised to see her turn into a Howard Dean of 2003/2004, coming crashing down after the first of the year.

I think that if anything is going to bring her down, it'll be concerns over her electability. A lot of caucus goers are going to want to pick someone who can win in November, and I think the concern over electability may also lend itself to Obama. Which of course leaves Edwards.

A win in Iowa would give Edwards the needed momentum, and if the anti-Hillary vote were to coalesce around him in places like New Hampshire and South Carolina, I could see him winning the nomination.

It is more likely to happen for Obama though because Edwards can't compete with the other two money wise and he has very little support in NH or SC.

I think if one of the candidates beat Hillary in Iowa, I think that will be the one who the anti-Hillary vote will rally behind. Personally, I think Edwards has just as much of a chance as Obama does to win Iowa. And like I said, I think the momentum he would receive from that would make him the clear alternative to Hillary Clinton.

He will still be spanked in SC because he can't compete with Clinton for the black vote and he has never went over well in NH (including in 2004).
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