ME Sen: Collins 56%; Allen 33%

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

DailyKos was kind enough to commission a poll of Maine via Research 2000.

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Yet another poll (and this one commissioned by Dem ultra-partisans) that shows Chellie Pingree Tom Allen is barely even in the game.  Seriously, how long do we have to continue pretending that Allen stands a shot in hell?

[Conan]

DailyKos was kind enough to commission a poll of Maine via Research 2000.

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Yet another poll (and this one commissioned by Dem ultra-partisans) that shows Chellie Pingree Tom Allen is barely even in the game.  Seriously, how long do we have to continue pretending that Allen stands a shot in hell?

Oh yea, you're right. The election is only in two weeks.

[Alcon]

Re-elect at 55%?  Yeah, good luck, Dems.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But, Allen really beats this Webb guy.

Oh wait.......

http://legacy.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20Senate%20December%209.htm

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

But, Allen really beats this Webb guy.

Oh wait.......

http://legacy.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20Senate%20December%209.htm

Okay, okay.  Sue Collins is totally going to make an offhand racist remark that exposes her longstanding past of racism.

When that happens, the race will crack wide open for Allen.

[Smash255]

Looks good for Collins at this point, however Maine looks like it will go to the Democrat by a large margin.  If as we get to election time it looks like the Dems will make major gains in the Senate, the Dems may play up the filibuster proof angle. 

At this point Collins has a clear advantage and a fairly strong one, however more votes against a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq could make things a bit tougher for her, especially now with Snowe firmly in the timetable camp.

[Ogre Mage]

There is a long way to go, but Tom Allen clearly has his work cut out for him.  I think Collins is a savvier politician than Lincoln Chafee and her state is not quite as fervently Democratic.

[MarkWarner08]

There is a long way to go, but Tom Allen clearly has his work cut out for him.  I think Collins is a savvier politician than Lincoln Chafee and her state is not quite as fervently Democratic.

Good points.  Maine is by no means as liberal as Rhode Island -- only TAXachusetts can claim that mantle.  Susan Collins is more popular than Lincoln Chafee,  which is quite a feat considering Linc's amaible nature and his father's record.

However, Tom Allen is the second best candidate the Democrats can run against Collins. He's well-funded, a smart campaigner, and, most importantly in a New England state that prides its self on civility in civics, he's polite and eloquent. What's holding Allen back is the political dynamics of Maine, a state's with a bifurcated political identity.

On one side Maine has  latte loving Portland liberals, on the other side, rural moderates who care about resources issues. The folks in ME-02 are distrustful of the artsy, intellectual types who live down size (ie Allen's base). Collins, if I remember correctly, is from the 2nd CD. That's a huge edge in a statewide contest. In many ways, this race could come down to regionalism. If the Democrats had nominated a moderate from Middle Tennesse in 2006 -- say Lincoln Davis -- they would likely have picked off that open seat. Similarlay, a Mike Michaud candidacy would've likely been the end of Susan Collins' illustrious career.

Collins, Coleman, and Smith are all facing either 2nd or 3rd tier Democrats. The reason they're considered vulnerable is simple: they're each Republicans in blue states, running a bad year for the GOP. Whether or not this will be enough for them to lose is impossible to tell at this juncture. One way to tell is to compare today's vulnerable GOP Senators with the six Republican Senators who lost in 2006.

DeWine: Lost because of the worst political environment for Ohio Republicans since the Great Depression. Democratic candidate played to the state's populist tendencies.
D opponent: 1st tier

Chafee: Lost because the Ocean State no longer would vote for a Republican for  federal office. D opponent: 1st tier

Burns: Lost because of scandals, gaffes, and the unpopularity of the war in Iraq.
D opponent: 2nd tier

Talent: Lost because of the political environment.
D opponent: Best possible candidate.

Santorum: Simply put, Santorum lost because of Santorum. I'm convinced that Rick Santorum, after all of his mistakes in the years between
'00 and '06, would've lost even in a year like 1994. It didn't hurt that the Democrats nominated their strongest possible candidate.

D opponent: Tier 1

Allen: Maccaca, NOVA and it's over for the GOP.
D opponent: 3rd tier.

By my rather arbitrary estimation of what is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier candidates, I 'd says that 2/3 of the Democrats who beat GOP Senators in 2006 were top tier candidates. One was second tier and the last candidate was third tier.

The only way 2nd tier Democrats knocked off GOP Senators in 2006 was if the Republicans accepted money from convicted lobbyists or made racist comments. Barring a second tide, I don't expect Collins, Coleman, or Smith to lose in 2008.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks good for Collins at this point, however Maine looks like it will go to the Democrat by a large margin.  If as we get to election time it looks like the Dems will make major gains in the Senate, the Dems may play up the filibuster proof angle. 

At this point Collins has a clear advantage and a fairly strong one, however more votes against a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq could make things a bit tougher for her, especially now with Snowe firmly in the timetable camp.

I'm not sure I understand why Maine "will go to the Democrat by a large margin."  Rudy Giuliani is exactly the type of Republican that would play well in Maine.

Similarlay, a Mike Michaud candidacy would've likely been the end of Susan Collins' illustrious career.

Zuh?  Michaud is in, what, his third term?  And do you really expect a pro-lifer to do better against pro-choice Collins when the key to making the race competitive is winning back the support of disaffected Independents and Democrats?

[opebo]

I'm not sure I understand why Maine "will go to the Democrat by a large margin."  Rudy Giuliani is exactly the type of Republican that would play well in Maine.

Hah!  Oh, you mean he will lose Maine by less than typical Republicans?  Or do you actually mean he'll win Maine?  That's much less likely than Allen getting rid of Collins.

[Brittain33]

TAXachusetts

Please don't do that. My taxes are pretty damn low.

[Sam Spade]

Polls like this remind me that I'm probably overrating Oregon and Maine because of 2006, but I think that is to be expected.

[TheresNoMoney]

I'm not sure I understand why Maine "will go to the Democrat by a large margin."  Rudy Giuliani is exactly the type of Republican that would play well in Maine.

Ummmm......yeah, a flaming neocon hellbent on continuing the Iraq War indefinitely and threatening to invade Iran as well. He's a GREAT candidate for Maine!

It's amazing how bad people are at understanding the political environment.

[HardRCafé]

Sue Collins is totally going to make an offhand racist remark that exposes her longstanding past of racism.

When that happens, the race will crack wide open for Allen.

But then the question is:  Tom or George?

Susan Collins is more popular than Lincoln Chafee,  which is quite a feat considering Linc's amaible nature and his father's record.

Quite a feat considering Sue's not a recovering cokehead.

[MarkWarner08]

TAXachusetts

Please don't do that. My taxes are pretty damn low.

For such a liberal state, you sure have a regressive tax system. My relatives who live in MA constantly complain about the ever-increasing property tax rates, which disproportionately hurt low-income residents. The wealthy in Massachusetts pay around 1.1% of their income to property taxes; the bottom 20% pay nearly 3% of their average income. When one factors in discretionary income, this relative gap widens.

Maybe you're on a high tax bracket, but if your a retiree of a modest means, Massachusetts is one of the least economically friendly states in the union.

[Brittain33]

For such a liberal state, you sure have a regressive tax system.

Ok. That's not what people usually mean when they use that term, so I responded as if it were a conservative critique.

My relatives who live in MA constantly complain about the ever-increasing property tax rates, which disproportionately hurt low-income residents.

While this is true, the property taxes also pinch because people (low income or otherwise) have seen massive appreciation in the value of their homes that they haven't realized yet. If they bought a modest house in a middle class suburb 20 or more years ago, that house has probably gone up in value by 5-10 times and they couldn't afford it today. Property taxes are held down by Proposition 2.5, which limits them to an increase of 2.5% per year, unless voters choose to override those limits. But they will do very, very well when they sell their house and move south.

If they live in a genuinely low-income community, their property taxes have not gone up to a high amount because the state recycles income tax receipts to towns like that. Essentially, I'm free riding on the system because I live in a low-income city with high property values that consequently draws a lot of state aid because most of my neighbors who bought in the '80s or earlier couldn't afford taxes on their appreciation.

Taxes have gone up everywhere. It's because health care is more expensive and education is costlier with student population changes. Everyone complains about it. It doesn't mean a system is regressive, necessarily.

The wealthy in Massachusetts pay around 1.1% of their income to property taxes; the bottom 20% pay nearly 3% of their average income. When one factors in discretionary income, this relative gap widens.

That's a hell of a misleading statistic, because it doesn't account for income taxes or sales taxes. Poor people pay a greater share of their income in property taxes everywhere, it's a mathematical certainty. More to the point, Massachusetts relies less on property taxes than other states. Besides, what share of the bottom 20% in Massachusetts is owning and not renting?

Maybe you're on a high tax bracket, but if your a retiree of a modest means, Massachusetts is one of the least economically friendly states in the union.

We have a flat income tax of 5.3%, which is a regressive approach, although income taxes are more progressive than any other form of tax. Our sales tax is a low 5% and excludes food and clothing; score one for progressive taxation. As I said, we cycle state aid from wealthy income tax payers to property-poor communities.

I don't doubt your relative are unhappy, but they don't know the full story or aren't giving it to you.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm not sure I understand why Maine "will go to the Democrat by a large margin."  Rudy Giuliani is exactly the type of Republican that would play well in Maine.

Aside from what Scoonie said, Maine is also largely pro-gun, and has lots of populist and pro-life parts (See Rep. Michaud). These areas will NOT go for Giuliani.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm not sure I understand why Maine "will go to the Democrat by a large margin."  Rudy Giuliani is exactly the type of Republican that would play well in Maine.

Hah!  Oh, you mean he will lose Maine by less than typical Republicans?  Or do you actually mean he'll win Maine?  That's much less likely than Allen getting rid of Collins.

The first.  Maine certainly won't be voting more Democratic than how it voted in 1996 when Collins won an open seat against a former Governor.

[Smash255]

Looks good for Collins at this point, however Maine looks like it will go to the Democrat by a large margin.  If as we get to election time it looks like the Dems will make major gains in the Senate, the Dems may play up the filibuster proof angle. 

At this point Collins has a clear advantage and a fairly strong one, however more votes against a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq could make things a bit tougher for her, especially now with Snowe firmly in the timetable camp.

I'm not sure I understand why Maine "will go to the Democrat by a large margin."  Rudy Giuliani is exactly the type of Republican that would play well in Maine.

Kerry won the state by 9 in a year the GOP won nationally by 2.46%.  The state is clearly in the double digit category next year.  Rudy would not be a good fit, not anymore at least.  Those who would be more open to Giuliani because of his social views compared to other Republicans will flee Rudy because of his asinine Iraq views.

[Sam Spade]

I'm not sure I understand why Maine "will go to the Democrat by a large margin."  Rudy Giuliani is exactly the type of Republican that would play well in Maine.

Hah!  Oh, you mean he will lose Maine by less than typical Republicans?  Or do you actually mean he'll win Maine?  That's much less likely than Allen getting rid of Collins.

The first.  Maine certainly won't be voting more Democratic than how it voted in 1996 when Collins won an open seat against a former Governor.

Let me advise you to stop beating your head against a wall around here when it comes to these types of topics.  It's pointless.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let me advise you to stop beating your head against a wall around here when it comes to these types of topics.  It's pointless.

^^^

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Those who would be more open to Giuliani because of his social views compared to other Republicans will flee Rudy because of his asinine Iraq views.

We'll have to see what the "real difference" between Hillary and Rudy on the war actually winds up being.  It's not like Hillary is a huge anti-war liberal.  She's (thankfully) a realist on the issue.

[Smash255]

Those who would be more open to Giuliani because of his social views compared to other Republicans will flee Rudy because of his asinine Iraq views.

We'll have to see what the "real difference" between Hillary and Rudy on the war actually winds up being.  It's not like Hillary is a huge anti-war liberal.  She's (thankfully) a realist on the issue.

Hillary favors a timetable for withdrawal, she favors getting out of Iraq.  Rudy is as pro war as it gets, he is basically Dick Cheneyesque with his foreign policy views.

[Ogre Mage]

The only way 2nd tier Democrats knocked off GOP Senators in 2006 was if the Republicans accepted money from convicted lobbyists or made racist comments. Barring a second tide, I don't expect Collins, Coleman, or Smith to lose in 2008.

I would differentiate Collins from Coleman and Smith insofar as Collins has consistently posted job approval ratings in the high 60s -- a clear signal of how strong she is.  Coleman and Smith, however, are scratching and clawing to stay at 50% and often failing.  Conventional wisdom is that below 50% is a danger zone for an incumbent, particularly for a Republican in a blue leaning state in this political climate.  The Democrats should look into the reasons for their difficulties and craft their message accordingly.  It may just be about Iraq and Bush, but perhaps there is more.

[Conan]

The only way 2nd tier Democrats knocked off GOP Senators in 2006 was if the Republicans accepted money from convicted lobbyists or made racist comments. Barring a second tide, I don't expect Collins, Coleman, or Smith to lose in 2008.

While I do not expect Collins and Smith to lose (because Smith was given a pass by the cowardice Dems in Oregon) I fully expect Coleman will lose.