Rasmussen: Warner (D) leads Gilmore (R) by 16
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  Rasmussen: Warner (D) leads Gilmore (R) by 16
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Author Topic: Rasmussen: Warner (D) leads Gilmore (R) by 16  (Read 1407 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 30, 2007, 02:17:57 PM »

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Warner: 53%
Gilmore: 37%

Favorable - Unfavorable:

Warner: 57-34
Gilmore: 42-45

How do you rate the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President?

41% Excellent/Good
58% Fair/Poor

How do you rate the way that Tim Kaine is performing his role as Governor?

43% Excellent/Good
50% Fair/Poor

http://tinyurl.com/35luth
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2007, 03:51:38 PM »

I wish Goldie was still around so I could see him spin this.

No more ridiculous than the spin on Santorum/Casey I guess.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2007, 03:55:17 PM »

Interesting numbers on Kaine. What might have made him slip in negatives where he was once rated very highly?
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BRTD
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2007, 03:58:43 PM »

Which counts "Fair" as negative, which isn't quite the same as disapproval.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2007, 04:08:04 PM »

Which counts "Fair" as negative, which isn't quite the same as disapproval.

Yes, but Rasmussen had him at around 55-40 in their last poll, IIRC.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2007, 04:36:09 PM »

Last I heard, Kaine's approval numbers were somewhere between 55-65, I think it was around 63.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2007, 05:21:15 PM »

It will be very interesting to see how the margin tightens up (and by how much) by election day.

Warner will likely win, but I can't see it being by 16 points...or 10...
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Smash255
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2007, 05:22:48 PM »

Looks like a generous GOP poll.  Bush's #'s are higher and Kaine's are lower than recent VA polling, which has had Bush in the mid to upper 30's (in the straight up approve or disapprove) and Kaine hovering around 60.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2007, 02:37:42 AM »

It will be very interesting to see how the margin tightens up (and by how much) by election day.

Warner will likely win, but I can't see it being by 16 points...or 10...

It will definitely be less than 10 and possibly less than 5 but I'm not expecting another nail biter like the Allen/Webb race.  I'd be shocked if Warner got less than 52%.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2007, 10:31:10 AM »

I predict Warner beats Gilmore by about 55%-45%. 
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Smash255
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2007, 03:55:30 PM »

It will be very interesting to see how the margin tightens up (and by how much) by election day.

Warner will likely win, but I can't see it being by 16 points...or 10...

It will definitely be less than 10 and possibly less than 5 but I'm not expecting another nail biter like the Allen/Webb race.  I'd be shocked if Warner got less than 52%.

Its going to be more than that.  You are dealing with an extremely popular Gov. going against one who wasn't that popular.  On top of that much of what Warner is credited with is cleaning up the mess Gilmore left.
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Padfoot
padfoot714
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2007, 01:21:30 AM »

It will be very interesting to see how the margin tightens up (and by how much) by election day.

Warner will likely win, but I can't see it being by 16 points...or 10...

It will definitely be less than 10 and possibly less than 5 but I'm not expecting another nail biter like the Allen/Webb race.  I'd be shocked if Warner got less than 52%.

Its going to be more than that.  You are dealing with an extremely popular Gov. going against one who wasn't that popular.  On top of that much of what Warner is credited with is cleaning up the mess Gilmore left.

More than 10?  I'm skeptical.  I suppose its possible for Warner to take 56% but this is a highly competitive open seat race and I don't think anything more than 10 points is achievable.  Its going to be somewhere within the 10-4 range IMO.
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Smash255
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2007, 02:35:46 AM »

It will be very interesting to see how the margin tightens up (and by how much) by election day.

Warner will likely win, but I can't see it being by 16 points...or 10...

It will definitely be less than 10 and possibly less than 5 but I'm not expecting another nail biter like the Allen/Webb race.  I'd be shocked if Warner got less than 52%.


Its going to be more than that.  You are dealing with an extremely popular Gov. going against one who wasn't that popular.  On top of that much of what Warner is credited with is cleaning up the mess Gilmore left.

More than 10?  I'm skeptical.  I suppose its possible for Warner to take 56% but this is a highly competitive open seat race and I don't think anything more than 10 points is achievable.  Its going to be somewhere within the 10-4 range IMO.

Yes.  Warner is extremely popular, the most popular figure in the state.  Someone who left office with approvals in the 70's, Gilmore isn't even remotely close to Warner's popularity.  Not to mention with everything else the GOP has to defend they are unlikely to pump that much in the way of resources in a race they can't win.
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BRTD
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2007, 10:36:14 AM »

Warner left office with 70+ approvals, while Gilmore is basically Virginia's Bob Taft.

Yes it can be more than 10.
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