NE Senate: Kerrey officially out of race. (user search)
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  NE Senate: Kerrey officially out of race. (search mode)
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Author Topic: NE Senate: Kerrey officially out of race.  (Read 2465 times)
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

« on: October 24, 2007, 04:36:01 PM »

With Maine and to some extent Oregon not really close and Louisiana possibly flipping to the Republicans, this makes it nearly impossible for the Democrats to obtain a 60-seat majority for the 111th Congress.

The way I see it, the Democrats have their best shots in NH, CO, NM, VA, and maybe NC with outside shots in Oregon and Oklahoma. If both Oregon goes Democrat and Oklahoma stays GOP (vomits) and Louisiana flips to GOP, then the Democrats are now down to a probable gain of 5 seats with best case scenario of 8 seats.  This would put their majority between 54 and 57 seats (they currently have 49, with 2 democrat-voting independents), so in effect between 56 and 59 seats.

Louisiana, in my opinion, has an equal chance of staying Democrat as it does of flipping Republican.

(If I am missing any obviously close races, which I very well may be, please tell me and I'll correct my assumption.)
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2007, 08:22:47 PM »

Sen. No Democrat Filed (D-OK) will a true progressive!

State Sen. Andrew Rice (D-Oklahoma City) has filed.  He's a true progressive.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2007, 11:55:51 PM »

Sen. No Democrat Filed (D-OK) will a true progressive!

State Sen. Andrew Rice (D-Oklahoma City) has filed.  He's a true progressive.

Which guarantees a checkmark in the loss column.  Even the mention of Oklahoma flipping seems like a hopeless tack-on now that NC and NE have slid right off the board and into the trash can.

Not necessarily.  Now, I will agree that Oklahoma is very likely going to remain Republican in the Senate, but its not impossible for Inhofe to lose.  He is not very well liked amongst his own state.  However, the state has a much better chance of flipping in the Presidential race than in the Senate race, but neither is impossible.  I think... wait, I KNOW, the federal Democrats have a very good shot in Oklahoma this time around due to several factors which I've already mentioned. 

Please, do not laugh at me every time I mention Oklahoma possibly going Democrat.  I have very legitimate reasons for saying such and, frankly, it is very immature when you laugh and ridicule me for my analysis.  You seriously don't think I know anything about Oklahoma if I say Democrats have a chance.  I know I am immature for constantly whining about it, but how would you feel if someone constantly kept scoffing at your comments every time you made them.

It is also GUARANTEED that the 2008 map will look NOTHING like 2004.
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