NJ Elections : Poll - Dems have edge going into election --- More on Elections

[Conan]

We all know how she first won the seat, too.

Really?  I thought your contention was that only people still living in New Jersey knew anything.

False. That's a historical fact; it's over and done with. I was referring to the current political mood which one can't get by a poll, which isn't publicly released either, while living hundreds of miles away.

[Conan]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

Ellen Karcher's campaign has nothing to do with the quality of Beck's. I never said Karcher was running a good, bad, or bland campaign. We all know how she first won the seat, too. It was a great coup.  If Beck wins, it's because of a piss-poor campaign by Karcher in an already GOP district in what should have been an anti-Dem mood statewide.

I'm somewhat curious: What about Jen Beck's campaign seems to strike you as "poor"?

What makes you say Beck's conducting a good campaign? You seem to think that because Karcher's is bad, that must make Beck's good. All Beck does is complain about Karcher and her money and how she will be smeared. She's a whiner.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

Ellen Karcher's campaign has nothing to do with the quality of Beck's. I never said Karcher was running a good, bad, or bland campaign. We all know how she first won the seat, too. It was a great coup.  If Beck wins, it's because of a piss-poor campaign by Karcher in an already GOP district in what should have been an anti-Dem mood statewide.

I'm somewhat curious: What about Jen Beck's campaign seems to strike you as "poor"?

What makes you say Beck's conducting a good campaign? You seem to think that because Karcher's is bad, that must make Beck's good. All Beck does is complain about Karcher and her money and how she will be smeared. She's a whiner.

Well, part of running a good campaign is capitalizing on your opponent's mistakes.  Beck is clearly getting mileage out of Karcher's "farm" deduction and oversight in reporting her Christmas tree income.  It may be small potatoes, but any potatoes are big potatoes when you consider the entire 2003 campaign was waged solely on the issue of ethics.

Polling on both sides show that Karcher's numbers took a marked hit after Beck launched the attack.  It's moved the race out of the toss-up category, and made Karcher an underdog.  Not a sign of a weak campaign, especially considering Beck's very limited media budget.

I also need to hand it to Beck for taking a page from the Baroni book and actually waging a real, significant door-to-door campaign.  Beck has reportedly knocked on 10k doors district-wide thus far.

It's also a very Republican district, and I think bringing up the specter of Camden County Democrats is something that will resonate among the swing voters who went for Bennett in 2001, for Karcher in 2003, and for Beck in 2005.  Karcher needs to argue that she's an independent voice for Monmouth County.  Beck needs to show that she's ultimately beholden to the party bosses.  (I've seen other GOP campaigns pull some very stunning upsets by playing the Norcross card—Rau-Hatton's big '06 win immediately comes to mind.)

I guess you view that all as "whining."  Still, the most logical way for a challenger to defeat an incumbent is to point out the incumbent's shortcomings.  Beck's doing that with very little money, and honestly, running one of the best campaigns in the state right now.

False. That's a historical fact; it's over and done with. I was referring to the current political mood which one can't get by a poll, which isn't publicly released either, while living hundreds of miles away.

It's true, all I have to go on is a deep, inside knowledge of the political machinations of the Garden State, lots of insider reports, and an extensive rolodex of contacts on both sides of the aisle from my days as a reporter.  I know nothing compared to someone who physically lives in New Jersey. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Also, lest I forget—the Beck campaign was able to arrange a last-minute campaign stop by Rudy Giuliani.  That's a huge "get," especially for a State Senate challenger.

[Conan]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

Ellen Karcher's campaign has nothing to do with the quality of Beck's. I never said Karcher was running a good, bad, or bland campaign. We all know how she first won the seat, too. It was a great coup.  If Beck wins, it's because of a piss-poor campaign by Karcher in an already GOP district in what should have been an anti-Dem mood statewide.

I'm somewhat curious: What about Jen Beck's campaign seems to strike you as "poor"?

What makes you say Beck's conducting a good campaign? You seem to think that because Karcher's is bad, that must make Beck's good. All Beck does is complain about Karcher and her money and how she will be smeared. She's a whiner.

Well, part of running a good campaign is capitalizing on your opponent's mistakes.  Beck is clearly getting mileage out of Karcher's "farm" deduction and oversight in reporting her Christmas tree income.  It may be small potatoes, but any potatoes are big potatoes when you consider the entire 2003 campaign was waged solely on the issue of ethics.

Polling on both sides show that Karcher's numbers took a marked hit after Beck launched the attack.  It's moved the race out of the toss-up category, and made Karcher an underdog.  Not a sign of a weak campaign, especially considering Beck's very limited media budget.

I also need to hand it to Beck for taking a page from the Baroni book and actually waging a real, significant door-to-door campaign.  Beck has reportedly knocked on 10k doors district-wide thus far.

It's also a very Republican district, and I think bringing up the specter of Camden County Democrats is something that will resonate among the swing voters who went for Bennett in 2001, for Karcher in 2003, and for Beck in 2005.  Karcher needs to argue that she's an independent voice for Monmouth County.  Beck needs to show that she's ultimately beholden to the party bosses.  (I've seen other GOP campaigns pull some very stunning upsets by playing the Norcross card—Rau-Hatton's big '06 win immediately comes to mind.)

I guess you view that all as "whining."  Still, the most logical way for a challenger to defeat an incumbent is to point out the incumbent's shortcomings.  Beck's doing that with very little money, and honestly, running one of the best campaigns in the state right now.

False. That's a historical fact; it's over and done with. I was referring to the current political mood which one can't get by a poll, which isn't publicly released either, while living hundreds of miles away.

It's true, all I have to go on is a deep, inside knowledge of the political machinations of the Garden State, lots of insider reports, and an extensive rolodex of contacts on both sides of the aisle from my days as a reporter.  I know nothing compared to someone who physically lives in New Jersey. 

You have a feel of it, just that it's not as good as someone who is physically here.

Also, lest I forget—the Beck campaign was able to arrange a last-minute campaign stop by Rudy Giuliani.  That's a huge "get," especially for a State Senate challenger.

Yea, Giuliani has been campaigning a lot here. I think he visited Whelans district and Asselta. Anyway, I don't think the dems are going to just roll over here. I would expect some big guns to visit, possibly Clinton.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Some campaign spending numbers for targeted districts in New Jersey.  Keep in mind that Senate and Assembly candidates oft have combined accounts, so the totals here are district-wide (one Senate seat, two Assembly seats).

http://www.politicsnj.com/money-race-13479

Most eye-opening number:

DISTRICT 12
All Democrats
Received: 4.270 million
Spent: 4.046 million
On hand: 223,589.40

All Republicans
Received: 658,695.10
Spent: 563,245.30
On hand: 107,055.20

[Conan]

Some campaign spending numbers for targeted districts in New Jersey.  Keep in mind that Senate and Assembly candidates oft have combined accounts, so the totals here are district-wide (one Senate seat, two Assembly seats).

http://www.politicsnj.com/money-race-13479

Most eye-opening number:

DISTRICT 12
All Democrats
Received: 4.270 million
Spent: 4.046 million
On hand: 223,589.40

All Republicans
Received: 658,695.10
Spent: 563,245.30
On hand: 107,055.20

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District 1
 
All Democrats

Received to date: $2.376 million
Spent: $2,338 million
On hand: $37,694

All Republicans

Received: $940,128
Spent: $705,529.66
On hand: $201,354.91


District 2

All Democrats

Received: $2.192 million
Spent: $2,061 million
On hand: $131,102.74

All Republicans

Received: $905,390.35
Spent: $574,971.30
On hand: $297,020.40


District 8
 
All Democrats

Received: $1.387 million
Spent: $1,360 million
On hand: $26,711.97

All Republicans

Received: $659,185.30
Spent: $404,586.56
On hand: 254,598.74

District 11

All Democrats

Received: 267,349.48
Spent: 210,957.85
On hand: 34,621.28

All Republicans

Received: 523,304.41
Spent: 340,885.90
Oh hand: 182,418.51


District 12
 
All Democrats

Received: 4.270 million
Spent: 4.046 million
On hand: 223,589.40

All Republicans

Received: 658,695.10
Spent: 563,245.30
On hand: 107,055.20

District 14*
 
All Democrats

Received:  $1.723 million
Spent: $1.453 million
On hand: $269,497.32

All Republicans

Received: $1.626 million
Spent: $961,853.59
On hand:  $664,716.41

Libertarian

Received: $33,224
Spent: $31,091.35
On hand: $2,132.65

*Clean Elections district.  Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein received $100,000 this filing period in rescue funds.   

 
District 39

All Democrats

Received: 761,115.10
Spent: 634,932.82
On hand: 126,182.28

All Republicans

Received: 784,692.82
Spent: 507,036.29
On hand: 277,656.53

[MAS117]

There can also be as much as 800K to 1M dollars thrown into D1 and D2 races in this last week.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There can also be as much as 800K to 1M dollars thrown into D1 and D2 races in this last week.

From Dick Codey alone.

[MAS117]

There can also be as much as 800K to 1M dollars thrown into D1 and D2 races in this last week.

From Dick Codey alone.

Correct, from Dick Codey but through the Senate Majority PAC.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There can also be as much as 800K to 1M dollars thrown into D1 and D2 races in this last week.

From Dick Codey alone.

Correct, from Dick Codey but through the Senate Majority PAC.

I'd also count on another $1M to D2 (possibly to D1 as well) from Norcross.

[Conan]

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http://www.politicsnj.com/poll-whelan-leads-mccullough-asselta-race-dead-heat-13701

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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http://www.politicsnj.com/poll-whelan-leads-mccullough-asselta-race-dead-heat-13701

Interesting results.  With the GOP set to gain a seat in Assy 01 and Assy 02 (combined with the supposed easy pickup in Assy 08), it is getting all but impossible for Democrats to hold their 50–30 Assembly advantage.  I'm revising my prediction to a GOP gain of 3 in the Assembly.

And if Van Drew really is ahead of Asselta by a mere 3, Democrats may not be guaranteed a net pick-up in the Senate.  Still, I think we're looking at 23D–17R.

[Mr.Phips]

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http://www.politicsnj.com/poll-whelan-leads-mccullough-asselta-race-dead-heat-13701

Interesting results.  With the GOP set to gain a seat in Assy 01 and Assy 02 (combined with the supposed easy pickup in Assy 08), it is getting all but impossible for Democrats to hold their 50–30 Assembly advantage.  I'm revising my prediction to a GOP gain of 3 in the Assembly.

And if Van Drew really is ahead of Asselta by a mere 3, Democrats may not be guaranteed a net pick-up in the Senate.  Still, I think we're looking at 23D–17R.

There must be an Assembly seat or two that Democrats might pick up. 

[Conan]

http://www.politicsnj.com/files/Prall110407.pdf
Sen:

Leans Rep
Beck
Cardinale
Open 8 (Bodine)

Toss up
none

Leans Dem
VanDrew
Whelan

Assembly

Leans Rep
2 Rep Open
8 Rep Open
11 Rep Open
11 Rep Open
12 Rep Open
39 Rooney (R)

Toss Up
1 Dem Open
2 Dem Open
8 Dem  Open
12 Panter (D)
14 Open (R)

Leans Dem
1 Albano (D)
14 Greenstein (D)

I am in denial over Karcher's seat. She's a good legislator who's being brought down by her own party's leadership with their half assed ethics reform.
I am going to say dems net -1 to -3 in the Assembly and net 2 still in the senate. I am going to go against the odds and say Karcher will win even though I am in some state of denial over it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am in denial over Karcher's seat. She's a good legislator who's being brought down by her own party's leadership with their half assed ethics reform.
I am going to say dems net -1 to -3 in the Assembly and net 2 still in the senate. I am going to go against the odds and say Karcher will win even though I am in some state of denial over it.

I'd be more upset to see Panter lose than to see Karcher lose.  Karcher brought her loss upon herself by not living up to her own ethical standards, and I think Jen Beck will be a strong replacement.

I don't like the fact that the next State Legislative session will be without either Asselta or Van Drew—both are terrific legislators.  Greenstein is an inherently weak legislator, and I think the Democratic party (and the district) would honestly be better off if she lost out to her running mate this Tuesday.

[Conan]

I am in denial over Karcher's seat. She's a good legislator who's being brought down by her own party's leadership with their half assed ethics reform.
I am going to say dems net -1 to -3 in the Assembly and net 2 still in the senate. I am going to go against the odds and say Karcher will win even though I am in some state of denial over it.

I'd be more upset to see Panter lose than to see Karcher lose.  Karcher brought her loss upon herself by not living up to her own ethical standards, and I think Jen Beck will be a strong replacement.

I don't like the fact that the next State Legislative session will be without either Asselta or Van Drew—both are terrific legislators.  Greenstein is an inherently weak legislator, and I think the Democratic party (and the district) would honestly be better off if she lost out to her running mate this Tuesday.

I'd have to agree with everything you said but I don't think Beck will be any good.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am in denial over Karcher's seat. She's a good legislator who's being brought down by her own party's leadership with their half assed ethics reform.
I am going to say dems net -1 to -3 in the Assembly and net 2 still in the senate. I am going to go against the odds and say Karcher will win even though I am in some state of denial over it.

I'd be more upset to see Panter lose than to see Karcher lose.  Karcher brought her loss upon herself by not living up to her own ethical standards, and I think Jen Beck will be a strong replacement.

I don't like the fact that the next State Legislative session will be without either Asselta or Van Drew—both are terrific legislators.  Greenstein is an inherently weak legislator, and I think the Democratic party (and the district) would honestly be better off if she lost out to her running mate this Tuesday.

I'd have to agree with everything you said but I don't think Beck will be any good.

Let me add this too: Republican Phil Haines makes a better Democrat than Democrat Fran Bodine does in District 8.  I can't think of a reason why any Democrat in the world should want to vote for the more conservative (and not-so-squeaky-clean) Bodine in that race—he's literally a DINO.

[Conan]

I am in denial over Karcher's seat. She's a good legislator who's being brought down by her own party's leadership with their half assed ethics reform.
I am going to say dems net -1 to -3 in the Assembly and net 2 still in the senate. I am going to go against the odds and say Karcher will win even though I am in some state of denial over it.

I'd be more upset to see Panter lose than to see Karcher lose.  Karcher brought her loss upon herself by not living up to her own ethical standards, and I think Jen Beck will be a strong replacement.

I don't like the fact that the next State Legislative session will be without either Asselta or Van Drew—both are terrific legislators.  Greenstein is an inherently weak legislator, and I think the Democratic party (and the district) would honestly be better off if she lost out to her running mate this Tuesday.

I'd have to agree with everything you said but I don't think Beck will be any good.

Let me add this too: Republican Phil Haines makes a better Democrat than Democrat Fran Bodine does in District 8.  I can't think of a reason why any Democrat in the world should want to vote for the more conservative (and not-so-squeaky-clean) Bodine in that race—he's literally a DINO.

I can just say that I know nothing of his positions on the issues.  But yea, Bodine is a DINO who only switched because he didn't get his way. Although Greentsein is weak, I remembered she's running with Wayne DeAngelo. He's a union figure and I believe I read he's socially conservative (which probably means moderate). If Baroni was running for assembly, I'd vote for him over DeAngelo.

[MAS117]

OK CRUNCH TIME. Less then 12 hours away from the opening of the polls. Predictions for NJ Legislative races.

I'm going to say Whelan wins, Van Drew wins, Panter and O'Scanlon wins, Baroni wins, Beck wins (razor thin), and I'm just not sure about whether Fran wins in 8 or Haines. Too close to call I guess, but I would say slight lean Haines. Since I'm not back in Jersey I don't have my normal sources to go to for more in depth insight.

[Brittain33]

My mother lives in the 12th and just asked me whom to vote for. She just wants her taxes lowered and has met both women at an event at her community, a 55+ active adults development that sprung up after 2003 and is full of Democratic voters.

I told her first that neither senator was going to lower her taxes. Then I gave her arguments for and against Karcher and Beck that I gleaned from politicsnj.com. Although I'm a Democrat, I don't give a damn for N.J. politics and respect both sides there. I said Karcher will never do what she ran to do in '03, because the leadership won't let it happen, but Beck hasn't done anything in the Assembly and wasn't going to accomplish anything as a senator, although competition in the Senate would be good. I finished up by saying that at least Karcher will have to be responsive to constituents in her district, being as Republican as it is, while if Beck wins she'll never have to campaign for reelection again unless/until she gets caught with her hand in the cookie jar.

I'm curious to hear which way she votes.

Panter/O'Scanlon/etc. never came up and I would have punted completely.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My mother lives in the 12th and just asked me whom to vote for. She just wants her taxes lowered and has met both women at an event at her community, a 55+ active adults development that sprung up after 2003 and is full of Democratic voters.

I told her first that neither senator was going to lower her taxes. Then I gave her arguments for and against Karcher and Beck that I gleaned from politicsnj.com. Although I'm a Democrat, I don't give a damn for N.J. politics and respect both sides there. I said Karcher will never do what she ran to do in '03, because the leadership won't let it happen, but Beck hasn't done anything in the Assembly and wasn't going to accomplish anything as a senator, although competition in the Senate would be good. I finished up by saying that at least Karcher will have to be responsive to constituents in her district, being as Republican as it is, while if Beck wins she'll never have to campaign for reelection again unless/until she gets caught with her hand in the cookie jar.

I'm curious to hear which way she votes.

Panter/O'Scanlon/etc. never came up and I would have punted completely.

Beck will likely have to campaign again in four years, especially if Panter lasts through 2007 and 2009.

I've honestly never met Beck, but I've talked with Panter a number of times.  He's a great guy, and assumedly a better candidate for office than Karcher.

My mother and I had a similar conversation, but instead of District 12, she wants to know how to vote in District 23.  She's voting against Lance because she didn't like how he was dressed when he showed up to a Memorial Day 1997 event; voting against Karrow because I told her about her assault problems; and voting against Doherty because he's a 'Mountain Man' loon.

I think it's going to be largely Democrats and write-in votes.  She's been on an anti-incumbent tear since voting third party in the Ferguson/Stender race.

[Brittain33]

She voted Karcher, my stepfather voted Beck. I think she knew Karcher's father and so was partial to her in the first place.

Now she's complaining that they're still calling her. I explained how poll-checking worked and asked her on behalf of all past canvassers to please be gentle with the volunteers, it's not their fault.

[MAS117]

Mr. Moderate, will the NJN Election Coverage be available to watch online as well? I hate not being home on Election Day!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Mr. Moderate, will the NJN Election Coverage be available to watch online as well? I hate not being home on Election Day!

I assume so.  It was streaming online in 2005.

The coverage is terrific, but the raw numbers at the bottom of the screen are too small and pixelated to read.  I don't know how crucial all that is, though, since PoliticsNJ had the results down to the penny in 2003 only a short time after the polls closed.