KY-R2000: Sen. McConnell slightly ahead of Democratic challengers

[Tender Branson]

GE polls:

McConnell: 46%
Chandler: 41%

McConnell: 45%
Luallen: 40%

McConnell: 46%
Stumbo: 37%

McConnell: 45%
Horne: 34%

McConnell Job Approval Rating:

45% Approve - 46% Disapprove

Favorable/Unfavorable:

Luallen: 56-21
Horne: 36-9
Chandler: 57-31
Stumbo: 49-38
McConnell: 47-46

The Lexington Herald-Leader and Action News 36 commissioned Research 2000 of Olney, Md. to conduct a poll from October 22 through October 24, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points.

http://polwatchers.typepad.com/pol_watchers/2007/10/poll-mcconnell-.html

[Tender Branson]

And there´s none of these Democrats in the ring yet, considering their favorables ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And there´s none of these Democrats in the ring yet, considering their favorables ?

McConnell is harder to beat in reality than on paper. As the Kentucky Democrats have found out on more than one occasion.

[Tender Branson]

And there´s none of these Democrats in the ring yet, considering their favorables ?

McConnell is harder to beat in reality than on paper. As the Kentucky Democrats have found out on more than one occasion.

Someone could at least try ... I know he´s well funded, so is the DSCC this cycle. I also know it´s a presidential year, but Clinton looks competetive in KY polls, especially if Drag Queen Giuliani is nominated. And the upcoming Republican defeat on Nov. 6 will certainly help too.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why is Crit Luallen so popular in Kentucky? I don't usually think of State Auditor as a particularly prestigious office.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think whoever the Democratic candidate against McConnell is next year (hopefully Stumbo) then they should be able to get in the low to mid 40% range against him.  I wonder whether McConnell is really beatable; it would certainly cost the DSCC a lot to find out.  Also, the fact that in 2010 Jim Bunning looks easy to beat might mean that the Kentucky race next year is given less priority. 

[Brittain33]

I think whoever the Democratic candidate against McConnell is next year (hopefully Stumbo) then they should be able to get in the low to mid 40% range against him.  I wonder whether McConnell is really beatable; it would certainly cost the DSCC a lot to find out.  Also, the fact that in 2010 Jim Bunning looks easy to beat might mean that the Kentucky race next year is given less priority. 

I wonder how much it could cost. Yes, McConnell's a big fundraiser, but Kentucky is such a small state in terms of population that you don't have to spend too much before you've saturated the airwaves. Cincinnati, Louisville, and Lexington are the only big media markets. The DSC has plenty of money to spend.

[Lief 🗽]

I think McConnell is defeatable. Also, some revenge from the Daschle defeat is definitely in order.

[© tweed]

I strongly support Senator McConnell in his bid for re-election.

[Democratic Hawk]

I strongly support Senator McConnell in his bid for re-election.

Because he opposed the flag burning amendment?

Dave

[Joe Republic]

If the Democrats couldn't even defeat Jim Bunning, I really don't have much confidence in their abilities to take out the stronger of the two senators.

[© tweed]

I strongly support Senator McConnell in his bid for re-election.

Because he opposed the flag burning amendment?

Dave

precisely

[Democratic Hawk]

If the Democrats couldn't even defeat Jim Bunning, I really don't have much confidence in their abilities to take out the stronger of the two senators.

2004 was a Republican year, however, and Bunning came close to defeat. However, even if 2008 does, like 2006, transpire to be a Democratic year, my money is on McConnell being re-elected fairly comfortably

It's too early to tell what lies ahead in 2010, nationally, there are just too many possibilities, depending on what happens in 2008 and two years thereon, but any serious Democratic contenders would be wise to sit 2008 out and go gunning for the Senate seat in 2010, in which Bunning will either be seeking re-election, runs but loses to a primary challenger or retires of his own volition

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I strongly support Senator McConnell in his bid for re-election.

Because he opposed the flag burning amendment?

Dave

precisely

Well, no doubt, there are plenty of other issues as to why I'd strongly oppose Senator McConnell in his bid for re-election

Dave

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's not really an issue to me, since the flag burning amendment is as good as dead now anyway, even if the votes to pass it exist.

[Sam Spade]

And there´s none of these Democrats in the ring yet, considering their favorables ?

McConnell is harder to beat in reality than on paper. As the Kentucky Democrats have found out on more than one occasion.

I agree.  It's funny, because historically Bunning has looked stronger on paper than he is in reality (and McConnell has been the reverse).  Certain candidates often poll better or worse than the numbers they actually get in races - Talent in MO has been a recent, classic example of a candidate who overpolls.

I'm sure that Al is remembering 1990, or to a greater extent 1996, where McConnell beat future Gov. Steve Beshear 55%-43% without debating him, essentially running a bunch of silly attack ads, even while Clinton beat Dole in the Presidential race.

Anyway, Stumbo is in the race, Chandler is not and I have heard nothing about the rest of these candidates.  Stumbo, IMHO, is an ok, but not top-tier challenger, as this poll indicates.  Even with weak approvals and not great numbers in the general, I see no reason to change my present analysis.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Chandler told the newspaper he will not run for Senate in 2008 because he plans to stay in the House "for a while longer" (hint: he's going to run for US Senator Jim Bunning's seat in 2010). Luallen and Horne both confirmed they were looking at the McConnell race.

http://www.politics1.com/

[Verily]

Interesting. Is Crit Luallen really that well known as state auditor? Do we even have any sane Kentuckians on this board?

[HardRCafé]

Maybe Crit Luallen can be the Inez Tenenbaum of 2008.