ME-Senate: Collins leads Allen by 20

[Tender Branson]

PORTLAND - Sen. Susan Collins held a 20-point lead over Rep. Tom Allen in the 2008 Senate race, while candidates vying for Allen's congressional seat showed little success in distinguishing themselves in the minds of voters, according to a poll released Friday.

The Critical Insights poll, which touched on a range of topics of interest to business, government and the general public, found 54 percent support for Republican Collins and 34 percent for Democrat Allen. Twelve percent were either undecided, didn't know or refused to say.

The statewide survey was based on 408 telephone interviews with likely voters from Oct. 12 to Oct. 30. Its margin of error was 5 percentage points.

For the first time in two years, the poll found that Gov. John Baldacci's disapproval rating exceeded his approval rating, 47 percent to 44 percent.

http://news.mainetoday.com/updates/018078.html

AUGUSTA, Maine — Securing an advantage, Republican Sen. Susan Collins reported Monday she raised more than $1 million for her re-election campaign from July through September, bringing her total contributions to date to $3.6 million, with $3.1 million in cash on hand.

The campaign of Democratic challenger Tom Allen, the sixth-term congressman from Portland, reported receipts of $666,096 for the quarter, raising his total contributions for this election cycle to $2.2 million. Allen reported having $2.1 million on hand.

http://bangornews.com/news/t/news.aspx?articleid=155414&zoneid=500

[Sam Spade]

I think the last poll by this institution showed Collins 57-32.  Could be real movement or simply MOE.

Also, 18 days is a long time to hold a survey.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I believe this is a slow burner race.  The Democrats have a top-tier candidate in a favourable state in a Presidential year.  Allen may not win, but I think as we go into the election year and the final months of the campaign the race could be competetive. 

[HardRCafé]

Collins is going down hard because she is indistinguishable from George W. Bush.

[Mr.Phips]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

[MarkWarner08]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

On Election Day? Seriously? Tom Allen /= Chellie Pingree. 2002 /= 2008.

I still think Collins, like Smith and Coleman, has a strong edge over he Democratic foe. But it's ludicrous to say Collins is a 13-18 point favorite.

[Mr.Phips]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

It will be Collins by 7-9. 

[Conan]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

On Election Day? Seriously? Tom Allen /= Chellie Pingree. 2002 /= 2008.

I still think Collins, like Smith and Coleman, has a strong edge over he Democratic foe. But it's ludicrous to say Collins is a 13-18 point favorite.

Coleman shouldnt be in the same category as Smith's lousy race. Coleman is only up by about 5-10 points. Smith's probably up by at least 15-20. Coleman has top challengers, too, with money.

[HardRCafé]

On Election Day? Seriously? Tom Allen /= Chellie Pingree. 2002 /= 2008.

I still think Collins, like Smith and Coleman, has a strong edge over he Democratic foe. But it's ludicrous to say Collins is a 13-18 point favorite.

As Nelson-Ricketts and Kyl-Pederson demonstrated, frittering away a lot of money is no guarantee of a close race.

[Erc]

Should Allen win this, feel free to call me out come November 2008 and make me eat my hat.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

On Election Day? Seriously? Tom Allen /= Chellie Pingree. 2002 /= 2008.

I still think Collins, like Smith and Coleman, has a strong edge over he Democratic foe. But it's ludicrous to say Collins is a 13-18 point favorite.

Ludicrous?  I don't understand why—this poll shows her as the 20 point favorite right now.  And Tom Allen still doesn't ≠ Chellie Pingree, and 2002 ≠ 2007.

Honestly, though, while 2002 may have been a good year overall for Republicans, but it was kinda mediocre for Maine Republicans.  Democrats picked up the Governor's mansion and Michaud beat Raye.

At least Collins now has a weakened Maine Democratic Party going for her, with a rather unpopular Baldacci running the show.

[Brittain33]

As Nelson-Ricketts and Kyl-Pederson demonstrated, frittering away a lot of money is no guarantee of a close race.

Surely you recognize the difference between a no-name with a ton of money trying to spend his way into relevance, and an elected official with name recognition and a strong base trying to make a competitive race.

As for the prediction, by comparison, remember that Susan Collins beat Chellie Pingree by 17 points. Given that 2008 will be a much better environment for Democrats than 2002, and Tom Allen is at least one tier above Pingree in both career accomplishment and fundraising, it's not unrealistic to assume he's not going to do WORSE than she did, or even less than 5 points better.

It doesn't look like he's got much of a window to win this, no doubt, but it will close up a lot more by election day.

[Flying Dog]

Allen 46%
Collins 53%

[HardRCafé]

What's funny to me is how fast Pingree went from being the best funded, most accomplished challenger ever in Maine to a total nobody.

I'll agree to disagree.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Surely you recognize the difference between a no-name with a ton of money trying to spend his way into relevance, and an elected official with name recognition and a strong base trying to make a competitive race.

If Allen had a "strong base," he wouldn't be polling twenty points (in this poll, a larger margin in others) behind Collins at 34%.

As for the prediction, by comparison, remember that Susan Collins beat Chellie Pingree by 17 points. Given that 2008 will be a much better environment for Democrats than 2002, and Tom Allen is at least one tier above Pingree in both career accomplishment and fundraising, it's not unrealistic to assume he's not going to do WORSE than she did, or even less than 5 points better.

Let's fix some revisionist history right off the bat.  Chellie Pingree matched Susan Collins nearly dollar for dollar in fundraising back in 2002.

Collins (R): $4,266,392
Pingree (D): $3,867,077

This cycle, Collins is outraising Allen by about 3:2.

Collins (R): $1m raised, $3.1m cash on hand
Allen (D): $666k raised, $2.1m cash on hand

That's not exactly "a tier above."  And with poll numbers like this, Allen is going to have trouble just trying to hold Collins at a 3:2 advantage.

Candidates seeking a third term are a stronger bet for re-election than freshmen senators seeking a second term.  There's little to suggest right now that Allen won't lose by the same 17 points Pingree did.

I mean hell, he's losing by 20 now.  It's not like the Collins lead is built on name recognition—Allen is getting slaughtered within his own CD.  And while 2002 was a better Republican year than 2008, 2007 isn't likely to be a better Republican year than 2008 (though the Maine GOP didn't really catch any part of that Republican wave).  And 2007 is the year where Allen is running 20–30 points back.

People know Allen, think he's just fine, but they sure as hell like Collins more.  And their opinion of Allen isn't likely to improve once the campaign actually starts up in earnest.

[Conan]

Surely you recognize the difference between a no-name with a ton of money trying to spend his way into relevance, and an elected official with name recognition and a strong base trying to make a competitive race.

If Allen had a "strong base," he wouldn't be polling twenty points (in this poll, a larger margin in others) behind Collins at 34%.

As for the prediction, by comparison, remember that Susan Collins beat Chellie Pingree by 17 points. Given that 2008 will be a much better environment for Democrats than 2002, and Tom Allen is at least one tier above Pingree in both career accomplishment and fundraising, it's not unrealistic to assume he's not going to do WORSE than she did, or even less than 5 points better.

Let's fix some revisionist history right off the bat.  Chellie Pingree matched Susan Collins nearly dollar for dollar in fundraising back in 2002.

Collins (R): $4,266,392
Pingree (D): $3,867,077

This cycle, Collins is outraising Allen by about 3:2.

Collins (R): $1m raised, $3.1m cash on hand
Allen (D): $666k raised, $2.1m cash on hand

That's not exactly "a tier above."  And with poll numbers like this, Allen is going to have trouble just trying to hold Collins at a 3:2 advantage.

Candidates seeking a third term are a stronger bet for re-election than freshmen senators seeking a second term.  There's little to suggest right now that Allen won't lose by the same 17 points Pingree did.

I mean hell, he's losing by 20 now.  It's not like the Collins lead is built on name recognition—Allen is getting slaughtered within his own CD.  And while 2002 was a better Republican year than 2008, 2007 isn't likely to be a better Republican year than 2008 (though the Maine GOP didn't really catch any part of that Republican wave).  And 2007 is the year where Allen is running 20–30 points back.

People know Allen, think he's just fine, but they sure as hell like Collins more.  And their opinion of Allen isn't likely to improve once the campaign actually starts up in earnest.

And you used to be a political reporter? Completely ridiculous. We all know by election day, Allen will not lose at the same margin as Pingree. Most "political reporters" seem to know that elections tighten up as the election nears. Hell, "political reporters" might even think a democrat running in a democratic state has a shot in what will be a democratic year.

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

On Election Day? Seriously? Tom Allen /= Chellie Pingree. 2002 /= 2008.

I still think Collins, like Smith and Coleman, has a strong edge over he Democratic foe. But it's ludicrous to say Collins is a 13-18 point favorite.

Ludicrous?  I don't understand why—this poll shows her as the 20 point favorite right now.  And Tom Allen still doesn't ≠ Chellie Pingree, and 2002 ≠ 2007.

Honestly, though, while 2002 may have been a good year overall for Republicans, but it was kinda mediocre for Maine Republicans.  Democrats picked up the Governor's mansion and Michaud beat Raye.

At least Collins now has a weakened Maine Democratic Party going for her, with a rather unpopular Baldacci running the show.

Winning an election as a republican in a democratic state wouldn't be called mediocre. Plus, that was an open election for governor. There's no logic here.

[HardRCafé]

And you used to be a political reporter? Completely ridiculous. We all know by election day, Allen will not lose at the same margin as Pingree. Most "political reporters" seem to know that elections tighten up as the election nears.

You should be the political reporter.  We all know by Election Day, Harris had closed the gap against Bill Nelson; Kennedy had closed the gap against Klobuchar; and Ricketts had closed the gap against Ben Nelson.  Whoops, I already posted about that tonight.

If you want to insult someone, try not to say something so stupid silly.

[MarkWarner08]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

It will be Collins by 7-9. 

What was your prediction for the Dewine-Brown race at this point in the last cycle? Brown by 12? I don't think so. Predicting Senate races this far out is foolhardy.

[MarkWarner08]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

On Election Day? Seriously? Tom Allen /= Chellie Pingree. 2002 /= 2008.

I still think Collins, like Smith and Coleman, has a strong edge over he Democratic foe. But it's ludicrous to say Collins is a 13-18 point favorite.

Coleman shouldnt be in the same category as Smith's lousy race. Coleman is only up by about 5-10 points. Smith's probably up by at least 15-20. Coleman has top challengers, too, with money.

Coleman has two challengers: a clown and a trial lawyer. When Republican strategists think up who'd they'd like to run against, Mike Ciresi and Al Franken must be high up on their list.

Smith: He'll either have a poorly funded progressive challenger with some great accomplishments in the public sector or a poorly funded progressive challenger with some great accomplishments in the private sector. Either way he's the favorite. A 15-20 point favorite? C'mon. He couldn't even beat Bradbury, an amiable fellow with a terrible campaign staff running in year overshadowed by 9/11, by 20 points. How's he going to best that margin against Jeff Merkley?

Collins: Pingree is not Tom Collins. She's not a smart, likable Democrat with a strong electoral base. She was at times caustic on the campaign trail and ran a miserable campaign.

[MarkWarner08]

Should Allen win this, feel free to call me out come November 2008 and make me eat my hat.

A year before the election, did you pick DeWine and Allen to lose? How about Conrad Burns? Did you jump off his bandwagon, too? Remember that he come a few thousand votes away from victory.

[MarkWarner08]

And you used to be a political reporter? Completely ridiculous. We all know by election day, Allen will not lose at the same margin as Pingree. Most "political reporters" seem to know that elections tighten up as the election nears.

You should be the political reporter.  We all know by Election Day, Harris had closed the gap against Bill Nelson; Kennedy had closed the gap against Klobuchar; and Ricketts had closed the gap against Ben Nelson.  Whoops, I already posted about that tonight.

If you want to insult someone, try not to say something so stupid silly.

When did Harris make serious inroads in Bill Nelson's lead? Benator was safe for most of the campaign. Kloubchar, not Kennedy, had the biggest poll movement (upward) in the last couple months of the campaign.

[MarkWarner08]

On Election Day? Seriously? Tom Allen /= Chellie Pingree. 2002 /= 2008.

I still think Collins, like Smith and Coleman, has a strong edge over he Democratic foe. But it's ludicrous to say Collins is a 13-18 point favorite.

As Nelson-Ricketts and Kyl-Pederson demonstrated, frittering away a lot of money is no guarantee of a close race.

What do Ricketts and Pederson have in common? They were both neophyte self-funder candidates.

Last time I checked, Congressman Tom Allen has a record to run on -- something Ricketts and Pederson lacked.

[Tender Branson]

It´s hard to predict how this race will evolve. For the moment I´d give the advantage to Collins because she still enjoys high favorables and continues to outraise Allen. I think it will narrow down to about a 10% lead for Collins by Summer 2008. Keep in mind that Allen just spent 100.000$ of his 2.5 Mio. raised, while Collins already spent 500.000$.

Most likely result for now:

Collins: 54%
Allen: 46%

[HardRCafé]

When did Harris make serious inroads in Bill Nelson's lead? Benator was safe for most of the campaign. Kloubchar, not Kennedy, had the biggest poll movement (upward) in the last couple months of the campaign.

That was something called sarcasm.  A first for me.